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- OkaPoka
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OkaPoka Survivor
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yours thoughts my differ from mine but:
kinda~ it feels a little scaled down i guess in stuff. last game he had the whole everyone come meta me which did pull my attention a bit but this game he doesn't have that same bombastic flair (ig?) but his post count looks high
i got burned because obviously my meta on a50 is sorely outdated but i still feel like it scummy even incl. last game- OkaPoka
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OkaPoka Survivor
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the fact that we vote to lim d1 means burden evidence is not really on the accused lolIn post 1447, Ythan wrote:But the burden of evidence is.- OkaPoka
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way to go meIn post 1451, Ythan wrote:
Who said the burden of evidence is on the accused??In post 1450, OkaPoka wrote:
the fact that we vote to lim d1 means burden evidence is not really on the accused lolIn post 1447, Ythan wrote:But the burden of evidence is.
sorry burden of evidence is not really on the accuser- OkaPoka
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hey it probably is - asgdh
its just currently as it stands my townreads are
hop, iv, xtoxm, ceph, ythan, and herc to an extent and i mean like idk im just following where the mass of my townreads are blehhhhhhh
4 of them are voting LLD and 1 of them was voting her
mastina is literally the only reason why i feel so weird about this but asdfasdf sometimes it do be like that- OkaPoka
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you're probably not going to like my response but yes i think we flip hercule after.In post 1483, Dannflor wrote:
what is LLD town flip gonna tell you?In post 1475, OkaPoka wrote:get sadge dannflor because im doing the thing i do in most games where im just going to commit to a narrative and stick for a flip
i thought i evolved past it last game but here we are, back again, old habits die hard
That we should flip hercule next?
maybe mastina?
like it doesn't sound particularly like you believe it'll flip scum
You are townreading A50 and not Ythan? I think ythan is surprisingly townie with the few things he's done. maybe my bar is low because ythan trolled my ass last game but i thought his votes were pretty townie because they are utilitarian and drive the game forward. while a50 is bloaty and i don't know his place in the game. look i know a50 is weird but being weird doesn't give him a town check.In post 1484, Dannflor wrote:why the fuck are you town reading ythan and not A50
meh i feel like at the start hop was really proactive and townie and it just made sense for him to be townie. his 'incendiary' comments i think are... unfortunately townie because it probably signifies LLD can't be scum with hop and its a massive gamble for a guy like hop to do something that... incendiary. i actually liked his a50 takes as well but wanted to keep pressure on hercule so yeah. he's still capturing a lot of the mindmeld we had last game, and i've been keeping a lot of my thoughts hidden.- OkaPoka
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game theory:
mastina wants LLD dead for whatever reason. now she won't admit she is playing politically but i felt she was playing politically. anyways i tested my theory because i felt like she was trying to get me to vote LLD through putting me into scum buckets, by voting LLD and seeing if she moved me anywhere. clearly she didn't i.e. my theory on mastina playing politically is wrong i.e. my theory of scum!mastina playing politically is wrong.
unless i poisoned the well by preemptively calling it out but i do think if she was playing it that way she would've moved me up regardless.- OkaPoka
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on this
okay working theory: i think LLD is town. sorry but opening up with mastina sux and trying to fight mastina while townreading them is an overcomplication as scum. leaving the thread now when votes are piling on you? that's just silly as scum, maybe as emotional town i can see it because she'll be like not my fault u guys suck.
anyways mastina not biting at my vote and reaction test, i think i can mark her as town for now. why? because i've counted the votes needed to flip LLD, the math is ugly and she 100% is going to be scrapping for votes to lim LLD if she really wants it. the thing is, mastina scum i think would be more readily available to compromise for this because obviously she's not going to think her case is solid. and mastina town, probably is so convinced she is right, she doesn't care and thinks the evidence speaks for itself. a political move is bold yes, but pushing LLD (if my theory about LLD being town is right) is also bold for mastina so if mastina was scum, leaping to compromises i don't think is exactly out of the realm of possibility. limming LLD is probably a top priority for a scum!mastina, but i think this is town. scum mastina probably does the math and realizes compromises need to be had.
also i like the herc is town theory, you know what, i can buy it. mastina's outlined it before, he's reacting a lot different yes, but also, here's the rub, the way herc plays scum is a lot more proactive with buddying. there i dropped the secret tell. he goes out of his way to try and buddy up with people as scum, i don't really see that, whatever that's fine. okay so what do i do with LLD town and town mastina and herc town?
VOTE: dgb
Here are my thoughts, when dgb latched onto LLD, LLD was not viable wagon at all. you know what was? herc wagon. i think the most routine scumplay in the book is to wagon the person who is pushing the miselim (which would be herc). it's a two for one stone, lld wants the BoP, dgb gets to clean its hands by letting lld get the wagon through, let it green, and then be the first to take out LLD. am i preflipping? yes, but fuck it you know.
dgb has been pretty open about the buddying play this game, like it was last game, but there is a huge difference. dgb is actively trying to use the buddying to get votes, its a little blatant, and i think that's by design. we know dgb was buddy-y last game as town so it shouldn't raise any red flags, but i think that's superficial. the way dgb is using buddying this game is to hard push an LLD elim. dgb also keeps hinting at wanting to end the day fast, but doing that on LLD is a pretty bad idea and i think dgb should know lld's value as town, not a great person to end the day on. anyways the core of this is dgb is using buddying this game to get the agenda done of a presumably miselim while last game the budding did not feel agenda-y.
absolutely no proofreads i gtg but YEET- OkaPoka
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alright im just going to drop my summoning of cthulhu because i just got busy irl and no time for rituals besides half the list found out at the same time on d1 so it ruined my gambitIn post 1533, hercule wrote:@OkaPoka if i'm boiling this down correctly:
your townread on LLD is based on her townreading mastina despite mastina scumreading her? I don't feel like that's strong enough of a case. There are other ways for scum to deal with someone scumreading them, nightkill is an obvious choice
and your townread on me is based one me not buddying anyone? couldn't you classify my interactions with mastina as buddying? she hard trs me and i hard tr her back
I don't see how those are strong enough to reach the conclusion you did that DGB is orchestrating a town v town with a scum agenda. I do concede that if LLD vs me was town v town then scum would be more keen on an LLD flip just based on meta, but the rest seems weak
my townread on LLD is partially stemming from this yes. there are ways to engage this for LLD and the fact that LLD is still treating mastina as town when she as every single right to policy scumread her i think is a massive signal that LLD is town. its an extra layer of extreme overcomplication because LLD is essentially relying on other people to dig her out, and other people have been trying and failing, why isn't LLD stepping in ever? because probably she's town. she's obviously a power-wolfer, i think a power-wolfer is going to be like okay play time's over IM IN CONTROL. lld in response to people wagoning her as done everything in her path to literally lose agency. not scumreading mastina is a massive loss of agency. unless LLD has some exact scumteam of like dannflor, ceph, and idk someone else whom she fully trusts to dig her out, like why? that's the question you gotta ask with players like LLD. like why you doing this LLD if your scum?
nightkills tbh lol i have no idea i hate setups with nightkills. actually mountainous nightless is my dream setup /shrug maybe. look im not going to speculate in my weakest area which is anything related to night actions. in fact mastina can vouch for how i suck at pr play.
no there is a difference between what you are doing with mastina here and what you did to me last game. you kinda just hid behind me last game for a long time with gems like
and sheep voting with me. and there was countless times where i saw you in that last game basically waiting on me to do something and asking me what to do, like that's the sheepy buddy buddy hercule koba described to me. mutual townreads != buddying.hercule wrote:maybe i fuck around and VOTE: xtoxm with you- OkaPoka
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mastina it should be a red flag that LLD is trying to convince you, mastina, to swap on hercule. instead of doing anything else, like trying to dismantle the waogn on her by screaming at us and bullying us until we feel bad, she chooses to hop in thread, type about how you are wrong, and then leave the thread. that's basically her game plan her. look if this is scum lld this is quite possibly the most singular dimensional gameplan ive ever seen from someone pooky and mathblade described to me as literally not worth pushing as scum. she's going to scream at you that you are wrong and log off as the wagon builds? a little silly right? maybe i eat my words if she's scum but if she's scum like pooky and math lied to me or something and im not going to assume my teammates have decided to fuck with me.In post 1535, mastina wrote:
Out of all the possible reasons for townreading LLD this has to top the charts in how bad it is.In post 1532, OkaPoka wrote: sorry but opening up with mastina sux and trying to fight mastina while townreading them is an overcomplication as scum.
LLD's default treatment of me is exactly this--she says I suck because it helps her, and she calls me town because doing otherwise is inconvenient for her. That's basically it, no further depth to it. You can add layers to it if you want, but at the end of the day, the two's reasoning boils down to exactly that. Saying I suck helps her; saying I'm town is more convenient than trying to scumcase me.
It is in fact any other combination which would be more town from her. Saying I suck and I'm scum; saying I don't suck but am scum; saying I don't suck and am not scum; literally any of those would be a legit surprise to me. (The order of most scum to least scum is insulting me+townread > insulting me+scumread > no insult+scumread > no insult+townread, loosely; I've no real reason to hold back on this since regardless of her alignment me saying this won't affect LLD's actions. She'd probably be insulted if I insinuated that me disclosing this would influence her, because I know it won't.)
I should add the caveat that insulting me and townreading me is not actually scum-indicative. It's the most-scum combination of the four possibilities, but I consider it to be the closest to NAI as is possible since when I say insulting me helps her, it does so regardless of her alignment.- OkaPoka
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@dann i tried to help my scumbro a lot in black flag but idk if coaching is the right term, it was more, here is my opinion and meta on these people so take it for what its worth
ehh im going to hold onto dgb, dgb is not exactly succesfully sowing doubt into my theories so /shrug
dunn case is interesting i suppose, ill have to double check the meta side from some recent games i was with dunn
but ill rate it
shitpush - i guess it could make sense he's going for ez targets
waffling - ehh maybe, dunn's always been a lil mysterious with his reads
active lurking - nah
meta - who knows someone grab mariaR
dgb scumreads me so i wouldnt be pocketed @titus- OkaPoka
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thoughts on this boys?In post 1664, OkaPoka wrote:17p 4 v 13 no ic Dance
15p baton pass
14p Pick Your Power
13p mini theme
9p closed micro normal- OkaPoka
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but you are stronger on LLD scum than dunn scum?In post 1811, Xtoxm wrote:im struggling to put that read to words in the same way i can with dunn
i could give some reasons probably but they will sound dumb - OkaPoka
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