Newbie 2054 - GAME OVER

[Krazy]

Meuh

Kinda feel like the waifu ranking tier was a bad idea actually, anyway this is like mid-range town (was gonna say 'waifu tier b but like, idk that just doesn't feel right now that I'm at this point in the list, it's just indicating how town they are it has nothing to do with how cute they are -- cuteness levels for Meuh are clearly SS++)

I do think Kazyan looks like a townie here, just from reading his posts and his reply to Krazy's read, although I think anyone contributing to the conversation is more likely to be town than people not talking, right? Most games I've played the more silent the town, the better for scum

bit townie

Readslist on 50 seems fine, the one problem with it being that she didn't move her vote at that time.

Ooh interesting, I don't often see people just... admit to pocketing, interesting playstyle! Excited to see how it plays out

townie

Omg we gotta elim Marci now she slipped now I'll have to solo-carry the scum team

I feel like following up on the joke scumclaim from Marci is a bit scummier than Marci responding to the initial question, but I kinda feel like this falls in line with Meuh having a bit of an other-site-meta vibe to her where I think she's used to kinda shitposting more and being quasi-trolly and the seriousness of the game is throwing her off a bit

Progression in readslist from 50 to 181 seems fine, her flipflopping on her read of me a couple of times through the day in particular strikes me as townie.

My overall vibe from Meuh is:
a) they like their alignment this game, whatever it is
b) if they are scum, they are scum from a sort of "hectic" style vibe where they like to be jokey and trolly
but
overall I think they're just town, I like the progression in the readslists and I think they're mostly getting poe'd due to having an other-site-meta vibe. That's my current take. They have seemed to do a few things that are almost deliberately scummy or attention-grabbing

[Krazy]

Kazyan

Spoiler:

Town tier: B/C

As I mentioned before, 77 --> 87 --> 90 is kinda superficially scummy, the unvote feels weird and the policy vote following it up feels ehhh

109 however wallcasing me only to reach a "null" conclusion feels pretty town

The overall progression on Harumi from 127-179 feels kinda weird to me tho, idk

The main thing moving this slot out of "fakeclaim mason" territory for me though overall is this post though:

Reads update: 2ndchosen1 moves up to a full-on townread for me now. He has come out of the gate in gamesolve mode, which looks very different to his scumgame last time.

I'm not sure what to think about eth0s. His posts fit with a pattern of "breaking up the townbloc" and adding to the Meuh dogpile, but that seems okay for now.

Mostly this just feels like a *wrong* meta take on 2ndchosen1, this game is very easily in 2nd's scumrange and I feel like I had the exact opposite impression about his catchup/entrance into the game, which makes this post especially alarming. Could still very easily be wrong!town but this take makes me more nervous about the slot than I was before.

I still think the paranoia and flip flopping on me from this slot is more likely to come from town than scum though so still leaning town overall. Thinking "town with unexpectedly bad take of 2nd's meta" rather than "scum using fake meta to shield 2nd"

definitely an OK investigative check if 2nd did flip scum tho

[Krazy]

ItalianoVD

Spoiler:

Not even going to mention the emote stuff, I literally don't care about that one post at this point.

Why don’t you let her speak for herself. And kinda did is not answering.

This feels a bit townie, I feel like Italiano was actually annoyed I was interrupting his solving process/push on Harumi

this is actually the most AI post I have from him this game. Very faint leantown but actually mostly just null.

[Krazy]

Harumi

Spoiler:

Town Tier: C

Is there anything I can help you with?

this part of this post felt kinda weird

Does anyone else find the constant use of emoticons to come off as insincere, or is it just me?

this initially struck me as very townie when I thought it was just commenting on Meuh, knowing it's kinda just generally directed makes it a bit less townie but eh

Well there are quite a few posts which have emoticons literally almost every line, which I guess strikes me the wrong way??? I don't know, it's probably just me.

again, would have been townier if she'd expanded on her thoughts for one of the three slots

I made the memey part to meme. I didn't intend for it to have any actual meaning, or to reflect my opinion on anything.

ftr NicoRobin does this sort of stuff all the time as scum so memeing so it makes me very nervous here

This wasn't "kind of", it was the answer. I was not referring to anyone in particular, I just noticed that multiple people were doing it and commented on it.

kinda feel like scum would like... just give some reads about it at this point? idk this whole exchange got kinda weird

tbh I kinda hard townread the emoticon stuff at first but that feeling has faded a lot and the content from this slot isn't all that great

I get why they're being pushed but I don't really know what they end up flipping at this point. The slot feels close to rand. Usually when I'm like, initially thinking a slot is hard town, then realize I misunderstood what they meant when I thought they were hard town, they still end up being town so I haven't wanted to drop the read, but as the rest of my PoE gets shuffled some better content from this slot would definitely help me solve it.

I guess I do get why people think I have a kinda partnery vibe here? I guess my top worry right now is I might end up dismantling a wagon on this slot when they might be scum but *shrug* this slot is not my top scumread and I'm probably not pushing it today

[Krazy]

2ndchosen1

Spoiler:

Scumtier read: 66% scum

Pretty much all of page 6 I just felt like I was talking to scum, and I haven't had that feeling with anyone else this game.

I would call the emoticon debate certainly unhelpful, one thing that came up repeatedly in our last game was the discussing playstyle isn't really the most helpful thing for sorting scum.
The IIOA is certainly something but I would say NAI right now as it wasn't really distracting.
@Kazyan were the NPOM vibes from 29?

like, first of all, this just... was his whole catchup at first. there was no content at all. This dude saw a 5 page game and this was his take on it

after I watched an entire hour-long TV show kinda waiting to see what this guy's catchup would be he comes off with:

pretty much
I'm town lean on Italiano, Kazyan, and Cantrip
IVD has good takes, posts like 67 especially sing town
Kazyan's 109 seems to be a decent analysis of a D1 posting pattern on Krazy.
Cantrip's interaction with Kazyan looks towny to me.

Nulls for the rest right now

which... idk man, I just don't see someone reading the first 6 pages of this game and having *no take* on Meuh. Townread, scumread, whatever, but like other people are accused of hedging reads but this is just very hard to see for me from a town POV. Feels political, like he wants to get some towncred for some townreads but wants to keep his options open as he decides who to push

what makes it such a "pretty solid anti-associative" to you?

I find it hard to believe this is the most interesting question he had for me after the first five pages of the game as town especially since I don't think "one person confused one person for another" is a particularly weird take for an anti-associative

defend the use of emotes without really evaluating how different players were using emotes to different ends
This was either unhelpful discussion or a malicious attack angle on IVD.
Playstyle discussion doesn't find scum, focusing on messages and intent does.
why did you think the emotes are that important Krazy, that they required evaluation?

coming back to this point just feels like white knighting italiano and the "why did you think the emotes are that important Krazy" question feels very scummy

but to be clear, the #1 thing that bothers me about this post is that he doesn't vote me. Like is there any way you read this post and think 2nd doesn't scumread me here? If he's town, writing this post then voting me feels like the easiest thing in the world. I feel like he's holding off because A) he doesn't know he wins a push on me and B) he doesn't know he can sell getting townread after pushing me even if he did somehow win

VOTE: Krazy

this is better but I don't get why he sat on it for 12 hours, I feel like he was just waiting to make sure he had no initial pushback on the FoS

***

There's clearly a scum somewhere in my nulls and towns. I'm trying to decide how much that's a "today" problem vs a "tomorrow" problem though. Right now I really want to see a 2ndchosen1 flip because this guy's entrance feels *very* scummy to me.

I'm not going to say 100% scum, that would be hubristic. But given my PoE and what I think are a lot of pretty good townreads, I think this slot flips scum more often than it flips town right now and is my top pick for a day 1 hit.

In a world of 2nd town, he would have to decide whether I'm scum or town. So I am curious if 2nd can present 2 scumreads outside of myself that seem plausible. That might help me read him. I also would be interested in *exactly one* top tier town from him, not three, just one. Who does he think always flips town? There are some other questions I could ask for him too, but honestly ~10 pages is fine for a newbie game day 1 and I am ready to push this slot into a flip already.

[Krazy]

FoS is finger of suspicion. Sorry I'm kinda just playing normal at this point, if I start using terms that haven't been introduced let me know, I might forget.

[Krazy]

Figure that wallpost/string of reads is enough from me for a while so I will make sure I do not post in this game for (expired on 2021-02-13 00:11:37)

One final point:
I express a lot of confidence in my reads, and I tend to be very assertive in what I want town to do.

But SOMEONE IN THIS GAME has a better read on the second scum than I do. So members of the town, I *do respect your reads and I am listening* -- I am not the mayor of this game just because I can type fast and express my points in a long-winded fashion

It is a certainty that I am either null-reading or town-reading the second scum, and there are certainly still worlds where 2nd flips town, even though it's a game and day 1 doesn't have to take forever so I'd like to see some votes.

[Kazyan]

Looking through 2ndchosen1's first few posts in Mini Normal 2187, I get what you mean about his scumrange now, Krazy. I think I just forgot what Day 1 was like in that game because Day 3 and Day 4 were so much more impactful to my memory. I don't know what to say besides that scum!Kazyan probably wouldn't try to lie in a way that was so easily fact-checked.

I don't know if I'm comfortable voting 2ndchosen1 so early; it feels like I'd just be holding over residual paranoia from the other game, because I still don't know how to tell if this is 2ndchosen1 being genuine or not. Whatever the case, he's no longer a townread, and more of a...null?

If we can be real for a second, I've been posting leans, but at this point I'm ready to throw up my hands and say I have no idea who is and isn't scum, because I cannot see through layers of WIFOM against a coordinated conspiracy that could very well just be sitting around talking about anime and rolling dice to determine what their fake reads are.

[Kazyan]

For example:

Random thought, but even if I'm wrong on one of them, Meuh and Harumi are never ever scum together after Meuh has committed herself to use the sunglasses emote in every post after Harumi's emotes complaint post

It could

totally

be Meuh and Harumi. Something something newbie scum like Day 1 distancing, something something WIFOM.

[Harumi Ayasato]

For example:

Random thought, but even if I'm wrong on one of them, Meuh and Harumi are never ever scum together after Meuh has committed herself to use the sunglasses emote in every post after Harumi's emotes complaint post

It could

totally

be Meuh and Harumi. Something something newbie scum like Day 1 distancing, something something WIFOM.

This, and the post before it, uh. Seems a bit odd.
The whole thing about the conspiracy seems a bit jokey but I can’t tell for sure. This post makes it seem legit though.
Speaking of which, bringing up WIFOM in this situation is counterproductive because WIFOM can explain anything.
It’d probably be better to determine which are more likely (and I doubt Krazy

literally

meant 100% certainty.)

[Kazyan]

This, and the post before it, uh. Seems a bit odd.
The whole thing about the conspiracy seems a bit jokey but I can’t tell for sure. This post makes it seem legit though.
Speaking of which, bringing up WIFOM in this situation is counterproductive because WIFOM can explain anything.
It’d probably be better to determine which are more likely (and I doubt Krazy

literally

meant 100% certainty.)

I know WIFOM can explain everything--that's why I'm having such a hard time forming reads, because I haven't played enough games to know how to deal with it. I know the principle is looking at probabilities, but I don't have the experience to judge that--my previous attempt at ruling out unlikely situations in Mini Normal 2187 went down exactly the wrong path, because I genuinely can't tell what's unlikely, especially when the scum can watch us think and move to outsmart us.

In short, as one of Nexus's intro posts says, Mafia is hard.

[Krazy]

Kinda anticlimactic six hours, guess people had other hobbies for friday night.

Kazyan's posts here read pretty town to me, he reads like town afraid of getting snowed that's been burned recently. He's caught between deciding if I'm town and if I'm town if I'm right which is hard because he can't easily follow my thought processes. Very town tone. I definitely buy that kazy is uninformed of my alignment and therefore very likely town, tempted to move him back to tier A town.

The phenomena you're describing kazy is like a *perfect* example of gambler's fallacy. I run into this all the time when running newbie groups irl. 'he was just scum so I feel nervous calling him scum again" -- dude it don't matter. Either he scum or he not. I think he is. What he was last game literally just does not matter.

When I look at your posts, trip's posts, meuh's posts, kinda italiano's posts, you're either uninformed of my alignment or very convincing in suggesting you're uninformed of my alignment. I don't get that impression with 2nd at all. I feel like he is unsure whether he can get me flipped during the day, not uninformed about my alignment. It's a very different vibe.

I know you're feeling a little lost and like this is a hard game. *hug* you are doing good babeee just feel it

I don't feel the need to timer myself although it was nice forcing myself not to post this morning. I'll try to just pace myself normally now that I kinda know what I wanna do today

[Cantripmancer]

Just a heads up that weekends are very busy for me. I *should* be able to post in the evenings, but it's unlikely I'll be able to respond during the day.

[Krazy]

Yeah fuck it kazy back to s tier town, they were in that prism stomp, I can totally get why they're terrified of power town rn

Sorry just was looking back at their last games to check tone of this page and it checks out

Btw sorry about pronouns in that last post

[Krazy]

Wait no they just read that game and played the mini normal

Gah same difference

[2ndchosen1]

I was just trying to get in the conversation after not really seeing anything of major significance. it's d1 and I wasn't expecting much. Is there something you wish for me to expound on?

as for Meuh, I would figure my last post kind of hints at my position on them. They've made non-helpful content but nothing that's really AI in my eyes. I figured it was a newbie queue, I'll see if it continues.

I find being more confident in the vote, or at least giving the facade, gives it more pressure in general. your immediate thought is that I have knowledge on your alignment but I see stuff like "I tend to be very assertive in what I want town to do." followed by "I am not the mayor of this game". I try and look at messages and intent. That seems to be a very contradictive statement as new people may latch on to SE leadership like this.

the "why did you think the emotes are that important Krazy" question was more a "Am I missing something?" question.

[Krazy]

Fair. I mean for me it's partly PoE. I have Flip, Kazy, and eth0s as pretty hard town right now. If those three reads are right, even throwing darts at a dartboard on the remaining slots has a pretty good chance of flipping red.

The 'emotes' thing felt scummy to me because I didn't really feel like I had made that argument at all, I had argued they were NAI. Also this:

defend the use of emotes without really evaluating how different players were using emotes to different ends
This was either unhelpful discussion or a malicious attack angle on IVD.

'malicious attack angle on IVD' just seemed very scummy. I said it pinged me, I didn't even vote him off it, so if it was 'bad shade' I feel like other people made a way bigger deal about it than I did. I also feel like you had just recognized that this conversation was kinda unhelpful so you trying to go back to it made me feel like you were trying to find a weak argument that people had already moved past to make the gamestate less readable.

So I am curious if 2nd can present 2 scumreads outside of myself that seem plausible. That might help me read him. I also would be interested in *exactly one* top tier town from him, not three, just one. Who does he think always flips town? There are some other questions I could ask for him too, but honestly ~10 pages is fine for a newbie game day 1 and I am ready to push this slot into a flip already.

If you are town, this is still the main thing you can do to help me re-evaluate you. Who is your #1 top town (not your top 3 towns, just your #1 top town), and who are two people you can see flipping red outside of myself and yourself?

[Krazy]

Oh yeah and I emphasized I'm not the mayor because even though I am pretty confident in this read, I recently was wrong on a read (right on every other read in the game but wrong on that one) and the player decided to scumclaim as town so I'm trying to avoid repeating that. Town or scum I don't want the people I push to just implode in an unfun manner. I don't even know you yet and I'd like to see what you're like even though I do feel pretty strongly you have red in your pm for this game. It's hard to strike the correct balance between winning and being social.

[Nexus]

Votecount 1.6:

Harumi Ayasato (2) -

ItalianoVD, Meuh

Krazy (2) -

Kazyan, 2ndchosen1

eth0s (1) -

Harumi Ayasato

2ndchosen1 (1) -

Krazy

ItalianoVD (1) -

Cantripmancer

Kazyan (1) -

marcistar

Meuh (1) -

eth0s

Not voting (0) -

With 9 alive it takes 5 to eliminate. Day 1 will end at 11am GMT on the 20th February 2021 - (expired on 2021-02-20 11:00:00)

[Meuh]

For example:

Random thought, but even if I'm wrong on one of them, Meuh and Harumi are never ever scum together after Meuh has committed herself to use the sunglasses emote in every post after Harumi's emotes complaint post

It could

totally

be Meuh and Harumi. Something something newbie scum like Day 1 distancing, something something WIFOM.

Harumi we gotta discuss this in mafia chat

[Meuh]

Honestly reading back on 2nd's page 6 posts, I'm more null on 2nd than townleaning. Their reads seem incomplete, for someone who has 5 full pages they've yet to comment on.

pretty much
I'm town lean on Italiano, Kazyan, and Cantrip
IVD has good takes, posts like 67 especially sing town
Kazyan's 109 seems to be a decent analysis of a D1 posting pattern on Krazy.
Cantrip's interaction with Kazyan looks towny to me.

Nulls for the rest right now

This is on page 6... and it's less complete than my reads 50 posts in

Meuh, I believe that you're being scumread as your listings are just that. there's no real substance to them beyond "THIS IS MY CURRENT POSITION". it's a weak iioa that doesn't advance any position or generally help. If anything it appears like an attempt to look like you're trying to solve.

I mean he does list a few specific posts that he likes, I guess, but this comment, coming from him considering his lack of almost any substance after 5 pages?

Will have to see how this read progresses

[Harumi Ayasato]

This, and the post before it, uh. Seems a bit odd.
The whole thing about the conspiracy seems a bit jokey but I can’t tell for sure. This post makes it seem legit though.
Speaking of which, bringing up WIFOM in this situation is counterproductive because WIFOM can explain anything.
It’d probably be better to determine which are more likely (and I doubt Krazy

literally

meant 100% certainty.)

I know WIFOM can explain everything--that's why I'm having such a hard time forming reads, because I haven't played enough games to know how to deal with it. I know the principle is looking at probabilities, but I don't have the experience to judge that--my previous attempt at ruling out unlikely situations in Mini Normal 2187 went down exactly the wrong path, because I genuinely can't tell what's unlikely, especially when the scum can watch us think and move to outsmart us.

In short, as one of Nexus's intro posts says, Mafia is hard.

I think the best tip of advice I can give is to not overthink. If applying theory to everything is making your head explode, feel free to just scan for what you find suspicious. Ignore WIFOM unless there's good reason to suspect it.

[Meuh]

I'm gonna UNVOTE: and VOTE: 2ndchosen. I feel better with my vote there, honestly

[Meuh]

oh i forgot to make my vote

pink

[marcistar]

hmm, what exactly makes 2nd seem scummy to you guys?

i didnt read any of ur games so keep that in mind, but i just dont see how anything seems off? it just feels like they need to post more before i can make any decision on them.