newbie 2060: creatures, game ofer

[fferyllt]

I mean, in the final analysis this game's outcome isn't really in my hands, but I'm not giving up and I'm trying to SOLVE it even if it won't matter in the end.

I want town to win. If that's not possible then I want to have had the right solve even if I couldn't make it happen.

[fferyllt]

[quote="In post 815, fferyllt"

Can you explain why going from strongly pushing Wheme to doubting their read struck you as scummy?

It wasn't neccesarly that they doubt it, it's that they doubted it and then procceded to not speak about it. Felt like they weren't trying to make an effort to determine if it was right or not.[/quote]

Ok.

I feel like your play has kinda had some of the same features, in terms of not being up front about the status of your reads. You've occasionally made a post about how you're going to do something "tomorrow", but it doesn't look like you really got back to those issues unless I'm glossing over something.

[fferyllt]

eh. was going to fix the broken quote and forgot about it.

[fferyllt]

I get real life getting in the way of mafia.

Is there more to dig into now? Is there something missing from the content?

[fferyllt]

Agh everytime I go 'wait hold on Ivyeo/Lukewarm can be scum together' I just remember what you told me about hammering

You want to convince me I'm wrong about Bell and hence you.

Is Luke/Ivy your solve?

[fferyllt]

Ugh. I hate this feeling. It feels like I am stuck in a room being gaslit. I am literally trapped in a conversation that is me+2 scum (with the very occasional chime in from Egix or Ivy). If I am going to stay involved in the conversation, I am going to need some substantial input from Egix so I'd don't feel like I am going this alone.

Spoiler:

As for the Ahri vote, I am pretty sure I made my stance really clear at the time. I did not have any strong scum reads, and the way they were playing was annoying. Long periods of posting nothing, then popping in with posts meming about being scum. They were either scum using that as a defense, or they were someone who was not going to help us win, and were therefore a better Day 1 miselim then the other possibilities. As the day went on, my scum read on Wheme got stronger, so I moved my vote.

This pisses me off. You're not being gaslit by me.

I'm fucking trying to figure this game out and I'm trying to give all three of you as fair a shake as possible in the process.

Honestly, it has nothing to do with how you are playing the game, and everything to do with the fact that the two people I think are actually town are the two least active players in the thread.

So far in Day 3

• I have 43 posts
  
• Ivy has 13 posts
  
• Egix has
  6 posts
  
  
  
• ffery has 71 posts
  
• Unwnd has 34 posts

So from my PoV town has 62 posts, 70% of them coming from me, and scum has 105 posts.
So I left feeling like I am single handedly having to address and counter argument every single point being made by scum, and so I feel like I am fighting an uphill battle all alone.

Nothing to do with you, your playing the game the way you should be playing the game given the game state. But from my PoV the scum team is in full control of the direction of the thread, which is bad, and I am not going to get any help to fix that issue. And I simply am not equipped to single handedly try and keep the thread on a town-win focused thread.

So I think I need to just admit defeat until my confirmed town SE comes back and can help me. I've made my view clear, It is almost certainly ffery+unwnd, with the smallest of small possible chance that it is ffery+Ivy, and so I strongly think we need to vote ffery today. I'll rejoin the chat after we hear from Egix.

I love this post.

I don't want to love it.

But I do.

All I can tell you is that I would never have played day 2 this way. There is no scenario -- no player I could be scum with -- where I would choose to play day 2 the way I did. I wouldn't put in the amount of data I've put in this thread as scum, especially scum in a precarious position. Quite the opposite.

[fferyllt]

I took a deep sigh and I think I might just wait for Egix too, because I actually had an adversely negative reaction to that post

Luke's post?

The emotion in that post is so close to how I feel about this game.

I'm going to keep working through the data from your slot. Bell next, and then your posts.

[fferyllt]

Ivy, can you describe what finding a partner for someone entails? What do you look for?

atm, I'm trying to see if I can find a good partner for Demainer. I still haven't been liking their posts, but I've felt pretty equal on most everyone else, which is of course a problem.

Obviously Demainer didn't have a partner. I'm trying to understand what you were looking for at the time you made this post.

[fferyllt]

Therefore, I think that our best option moving forward would be to target either Ivy or fferylly today (sorry, I know you just got here)

I don't totally hate the possibility of being mis-elimed as long as I get plenty of time (e.g., a good sized chunk of this 48 hour extension) to analyze the available (sparse-ish) data and interact with the player list. But, I'll probably get pretty snarky if it does happen.

While either choice would work logically, I am much more leaning towards voting out Ivy today. I mean you have generated more discussions in the like 3 hours you have been in the game, then Ivy has generated in the whole of Day 2. Regardless of your alignment, keeping you in the game seems more likely to keep the thread from dying lol

I am quite certain on Ahri being an anti-spew kill, not a pr hunt. But, in either case, whether it's for antispew or pr, neither option is obvious to a newbie. There are more obvious targets in the thread, like Luke, who was both active and widely tr, or an se. Killing a newbie who has barely posted anything at all isn't something I'd expect from a 2x newbie team.

With Egix cleared by Clasko, that leaves saudade. while i see endless being on the team as well as it seems like he has some experience with this as well, I'm leaning most towards saudade/ivyeo.

Even though I am no longer advocating we vote you out, I still gotta say, there is something about your posts that just feel...

off

... to me lol

I go back and forth about the amount of mafia-knowledge Luke shows in his posting. He has the fundamentals down, and some of the things that seem off could just be coming from differences in how mafia is played where he's played before.

On the one hand, I have this Luke the Scum Mastermind vision in my head.

On the other hand, sometimes he makes posts that seem way more like the kinds of emotions that players don't filter as town, but tend to steam out of their posts as scum, just as part of the process of not posting something that reveals scum mindset or that could be useful to town. Here he's advocating Ivy's elim over mine because I came into the game and posted a lot. Generating data is good for town, and I feel like while this reason for not eliming me was kinda minimalist and maybe naive, "more posts is good for town" isn't a thought that scum needs to give town to chew on in a game that was gasping due to lack of data.

[fferyllt]

Ffery I'm still waiting on your assessment on me. Bell is Bell but we're not the same people. Why haven't you considered he was potentially just having an off game?

I've gone back through his posts, and I feel like the only way he could have believed some of the stuff he wrote was if he wasn't reading all my posts. I did throw a bunch of posts into the thread between our first and the next one, and maybe he skipped over some. His scumread had calcified by then.

Meanwhile I was all over the map.

Reading through that stuff, I came across a lot of posts I made about Demainer and Ivy before I did that toss and turn night. I was probably thinking more clearly then.

Agh everytime I go 'wait hold on Ivyeo/Lukewarm can be scum together' I just remember what you told me about hammering

You want to convince me I'm wrong about Bell and hence you.

Is Luke/Ivy your solve?

That is my optimistic solve, but I am prepared to think it's not realistic. I wish I had more agency here regardless

Give yourself agency if that's what's holding you back. The way you're playing right now scares me. You want me to reevaluate Bell, but I need YOU to process the game now. Bell's gone and none of the questions I want to ask him can be asked now.

[fferyllt]

between our first

encounter

and the next one,

[fferyllt]

I've been rethinking Ivy. :/

[fferyllt]

please vote me. Put me out of my misery.

If you're town, that will lose the game today.

That's WHY I've put so much effort into the game -- it ends today if I'm miselimed. And that may happen anyway, because it only takes one town player voting me for it to happen.

If you're town, whatever you do -- don't give up. What I did on day 2 was terrible play -- not because I voted or didn't vote. Not because I was wrong about Demainer. Because I decided my slot needed to NOT be around in a day 3 ELO instead of trying my hardest to get scum elimed.

[fferyllt]

Have been busy today but egix I'm pretty sure i unvoted once i realized the situation fully

Are you going to be able to get into the game today?

[fferyllt]

I'd really like to see how you're reading everyone else today.

[fferyllt]

If I were scum, I wouldn't bet it all on today. I keep thinking about Bell-town putting the vote down and then leaving the game and wondering how that didn't end with my miselim. I have a couple of theories I want to pursue.

I can't seem to hold onto a read for more than about 24 hours before it starts to flip. It's an insane oscillation and it's taking a toll.

I need more from you than 868 though.

I need to see

how

you're

processing

the

game.

[fferyllt]

1) You/Luke are sweating in a mafia PT together while trying to maintain the proposed image throughout this whole day, while a despondent town Ivyeo feels like she has no voice

This gamestate would never have come about if I were scum with Luke. Demainer would have probably been the miselim, but my day 2 would have been as squeaky clean as I could make it and wouldn't have featured a dust-up with Town-Bell.

Or Scum-Bell for that matter.

I was trying to shield Ivy on day 2, btw. It may have been the right call, but I've had a lot of doubts about it.

[fferyllt]

One thing I've been wanting to do is look at the timestamps between when Bell voted me and replaced out and when unwnd replaced him.

The question I wanted to answer was whether it makes sense that a Luke/Ivy scumteam would hold off voting. Here's what I found:

I'll put the times in US Eastern and US Pacific (my time) and hopefully that's easy for others to translate. Or, check my work and look at the posts in your own timezone.

6:41 US ET, 3:41 US PT -- Bell votes me

Luke posts multiple times after that until 11:34 PM US ET, 8:34 US PT

12: 52 US ET, 9:52 US PT -- Ivy posts for the first time since Bell's vote. She posts again at 5:01 AM US ET, 2:01 AM US PT

They were in the game thread within >1 hour of each other. There's a possibility they were both online during that time, but no evidence.

10:15 AM US ET, 7:15 AM US PT Luke posts.

2:51 PM US ET, 11:51 AM US PT Ivy posts.

3:25 PM US ET/12:25 PM US PT schadd_ announced unwind replace-in.

It's possible that having no idea when a Bell replacement would happen, that a Luke/Ivy team wouldn't feel safe putting down one vote and then waiting for the other to come online and hammer.

Without certainty that they were online together during that time, I can't rule out a Luke/Ivy scumteam.

I probably wouldn't have chanced it, myself in a situation like this without knowing for a fact my partner was online.

-----------------------

This is no doubt good news to you, unwnd. :/

[fferyllt]

Maybe you've got more stamina as scum

I don't know if it's stamina per se. I have a strong desire not to let down my team, especially in circumstances like mini 2181 where I was scum with friends I hydra with. I find the stamina when I'm last scum standing. I don't need stamina when I'm not, especially if my partner looks good to go long. That was the dynamic in the Newbie game where I replaced in a scum slot with Egix as partner.

[fferyllt]

That being said, we can go the other way. We could all just agree to vote Ivyeo, and that is a scenario both of you seem more willing to think about. That comes down to what Ivyeo has to say however, because some part of me does feel bad for her. Looking back on her own posts I was scumreading her lack of attribution over the course of time, and especially the instance where it suddenly seemed like something clicked for her. However, that is just one instance amongst a bunch of posts that are mostly cautious and unsure. Is it just that her own confidence was taken from her once she was wrong? Or is it because she's afraid of making the wrong move for her partner?

"we could all" includes Ivy's partner, if she's scum and 2 scum if she's not.

I AM thinking about it. There's stuff I want to give her time to react to in the game thread right now. I feel like my reasons for suspecting her are in the thread already, and don't need to be rehashed unless there's something I've missed.

[fferyllt]

I feel like you're not really pursuing your reads, unwnd. Not pressing, not questioning, not taking apart our posts into their component atoms.

[fferyllt]

It's odd that it fell to me to crawl through the timestamps. I feel like that should have been a key thought in your own mind -- does it make sense that I wasn't hammered before you even arrived on the scene?

[fferyllt]

I take offense to that and don't feel that way about myself at all

Maybe you just have some expectation of me I don't know about

I've been wondering if your general not-happiness-with-mafia is in play. And, aside from the game where you replaced in as my scumbuddy I don't have direct experience with replace-in you.

you fought your elim really hard in that game. :/

This, I dunno. Maybe it's that I'm used to seeing you process games in real time for the most part. This doesn't feel like Xenoblade-you or Tenet-you right now.

Maybe my expectations are bad.

I'm going to go skim some of your recent games I didn't play.

[fferyllt]

Subject: Micro 1002: Dark Waltz III - Game Over!

Do you guys want to-the-point blunt unwnd or subtly-inferring unwnd

Which unwnd are you here? Is there another?

-------------------

That resonates. Tenet took a lot out of me, too. More because of being so wrong in places, though not getting correct scumreads elimmed was also tough.

[fferyllt]

I'm meta-informed, not meta-based. I've experienced the pitfalls of cold meta enough times that I'm cautious. It's not so much that I avoid games with unfamiliars as that I seek out games with people I enjoy playing with. At MS, that usually means there will always be some unfamiliars/not-so-familiars in games I play.

[fferyllt]

sigh.

[fferyllt]

Unwnd, because of bell's vote I feel like you have to be scum. regardless of whether a Lukewarm/Ivy team had opportunity to arrange a quickhammer.

Why on earth would town-Bell leave his vote on me and leave the game with no way for that vote to be removed until a replacement was found?

I feel like your push on Ivy suggests that she's not your partner, even though I have some doubts about her on her own.

Maybe Luke makes this play as scum? I can't even make sense of where his head is at this point.

That vote has broken me.

[fferyllt]

I should cross-vote but I'm not going to.

If you and Ivy are scum together it will probably be a wait for a quickhammer opportunity.

If you and Luke are together, I don't know why you'd let him do this unless a you/Luke team is convinced that if you don't shake something up you won't get a miselim.

You were trying to steer the vote to Ivy earlier. I want to see that as non-team, but the game's become a hall of mirrors.

Whoever's scum, don't drag this out forever.

[fferyllt]

gg

[fferyllt]

At least my opinion of town-Bell doesn't require serious revision!

No hard feelings, Luke. It's a pain getting tunneled like that, but in the end, it was your tunnel that kept me uncertain about scumbinning you.

[fferyllt]

Did my presence change your mind even a little bit ffery? Or was what Bell did just oh too much to look away? I was starting to get nervous you and Lukewarm would sync up and vote me out, so I had to play both sides while pretending I was worried about Ivyeo (if things went wrong).

It shook me that you weren't seriously considering the scum-me possibility, and I think was right to be concerned that there was nothing in the game thread showing me that you were trying to figure the game out.

[fferyllt]

Lukewarm, post 464 is why went into shield-mode on Ivy on Day 2. I figured that post was made either by a town PR or scum. I didn't want to say it yet, but I felt like the longer Ivy went without PR claiming today in ELO, the more likely she was scum. I was really torn on whether to speak those words into existence or not.

[fferyllt]

demainer's ivy read was good stuff!

[fferyllt]

Luke, its a natural tendency to think that being scumread has to come from scum. my advice is to find ways to detect that you are tunneling

[fferyllt]

that's awful. good on you not letting it bring you down, Ivy.

[fferyllt]

I should have been more adamant on bell, but the strength and weakness of my play is that I look for reasons to think players are either alignment. I really needed to stand firm on that read and I didn't.

I don't think egix was saying that, though I could be wrong. he switched to scumreading you, but I'm not sure who he was planning to vote.

[fferyllt]

luke and ivy, I hope you both are planning to more at MS! you're both challenging to play with!

I'm curious about why Ahri was the N1 kill. I thought it pointed to Saudade.

peedit. it's a scum read, not an intent. you had time and opportunity to change his mind.

you put it on yourself to solve/save the game. understandable.

it's a team game even though as town we don't know for sure who our team is. you knew egix was a teammate, even if that was the only certainty.

for myself I put trust in him doing his best to figure things out, and didn't give up until you voted me.

[fferyllt]

it's a team game even though as town we don't know for sure who our team is

Yeah, on the last day it just really felt like I did not have a team. It got in my head

I get that. I mean, egix's spoilered wall worried me too, because he was partnering my slot with Saudade -- both endless's posts and mine. I didn't feel like his townread of me was holding up. But, I still held fast to the fact that we had a confirmed town who could look at the game from outside the fray. It's not an easy situation to be in, as confirmed town with nobody you're really willing to completely townbin.

Anyway, this is advice to myself as much as you. Sometimes you gotta trust the process, and trust that the other town in the game will be able to figure you out if you just wear your heart on your sleeve and keep trying to figure things out. Sometimes, that's enough to pin the game on.

It's a strange sort of sliding scale. The first day of the game, town has a lot of combined control over the way day goes, but individually not so much, except for the occasional charismatic player. As the game progresses, town's combined control decreases, and individual town players start to have a bigger impact, simply because the field has shrunk.

Today, scum coasted and waited for a town error, which was soooo likely to happen given all our mutual (mis)reads.

[fferyllt]

I'm just really glad you weren't town. I was going to have to burn my town-Bell model to the ground, and start over if you were.

[fferyllt]

my day 2 was terrible, and it's hard to explain why I reached the point of fatalism so quickly.

something insomnia-induced something

[fferyllt]

I could have done a more methodical initial catch-up instead of going 50 directions at once after I replaced in. I let the 48 hour deadline and the possibility that the thread was going to continue to move slowly get to me. I wanted to put thoughts into the thread and try to draw players into posting more.

my execution was chaotic.

[fferyllt]

I'm sorry I made you feel overwhelmed. I was kinda feeling overwhelmed, too, but not for the same reasons -- like I needed to get my thoughts out there, needed to some how shine a huge town light into the sky that others could recognize, or be the game losing miselim.

[fferyllt]

Choosing your battles is a good idea, in general, for any alignment.

You (and Demainer on day 2) kept at me at times to answer questions that I saw no point to answering because I felt like the premises were too flawed to take seriously. I'd reply with something I thought was more relevant or useful than an answer to your actual questions and that would make you think I was trying to avoid the questions, which generated more posts for me to respond to, on top of the analysis I was trying to do and document.

I could have handled that better, and usually do handle it better. Very much my bad.

[fferyllt]

Will you be sharing the mafia PT?

[fferyllt]

Clasko, I hope you'll stick around and keep playing, too!

[fferyllt]

And Demainer! And endless!

[fferyllt]

Clasko, I hope you'll stick around and keep playing, too!

I'll give mafia a couple more tries maybe. I know my play was bad throughout; I could have pressured more, asked more questions, interacted with others more amongst other things... but I also learned a lot. I definitely underestimated the 10-day duration of D1 compared to what I was used to (48h days and 24h nights).

Thanks as well to you, Bell & unwnd for subbing in. Also your Terms of Art was an interesting read!

Thanks!

This wasn't an easy game to figure out; don't feel bad. I feel like it should have been easy to get bell/unwnd elimmed on day 3, but the prospect of day 4 had me so freaked that I really didn't put in the effort to get that elim that I should have. I also felt like taking the reins and trying to do that when we had an engaged confirmed town player might wind up splitting town even further (whoever the 3rd town turned out to be).

Every game's a learning experience, and sometimes I have to relearn stuff where, from experience, I should know better. This was one of those games for me.

[fferyllt]

Clasko, I hope you'll stick around and keep playing, too!

I'll give mafia a couple more tries maybe. I know my play was bad throughout; I could have pressured more, asked more questions, interacted with others more amongst other things... but I also learned a lot. I definitely underestimated the 10-day duration of D1 compared to what I was used to (48h days and 24h nights).

Thanks as well to you, Bell & unwnd for subbing in. Also your Terms of Art was an interesting read!

Also, I just wanted to mention that I thought your day 1 play was really good for a PR. Being a little lurky and a little quiet (but not too much) kept you off the scum PR radar on night 1.

Once you outed your role and inno result, you had more gravitas, and could have used that to ask questions, interact and push things more, to see what broke loose.