Micro 1010: Divide and Conquer: Round 2 - Game Over!

[marcistar]

Oh and "not really townie" is a fancy shorthand way of saying that literally nothing you’ve said is something i think you couldn’t say as scum.

oh smhsmh u shouldve just said that.
lmk if u want me to vote myself

tbh im just waiting for juicier gossip

[NorwegianboyEE]

Juicier gossip?

[NorwegianboyEE]

Can you explain to me in detail what your current ambitions are?
Are you trying to solve the game or just mess around?

[Not_Mafia]

VOTE: Bingle

[Bingle]

Assuming N_M scum we're left with:

Dunnstral
Hopkirk
marcistar

Vanderscamp's ISO doesn't lend itself well to being allied with N_M imo. Ping me if you disagree.

I don't think Dunn opens the way he did if he's scum with N_M. Too blatant.

[Bingle]

VOTE: Bingle

<3

[marcistar]

Can you explain to me in detail what your current ambitions are?
Are you trying to solve the game or just mess around?

trying to solve.

"juicier gossip" i meant that theres nothing i find scummy enough to push on

[NorwegianboyEE]

I’m extremely bad at reading Dunnstral. If you can explain how he thinks and plays as scum, and why he wouldn’t be bold like that, feel free to enlighten me.

[Bingle]

Vanderscamp's ISO doesn't lend itself well to being allied with N_M imo. Ping me if you disagree.

Actually, could you explain this?

I don't see anything at all that makes Scamp and N_M unaligned, and iirc you scumread scamp for focusing on mech stuff last game when he's done basically the same thing here.

[GuiltyLion]

GL, when you thought the game was nightless what did you think about game balance?

Why did you sign up for this game specifically?

I really had not thought about the game balance, I thought it was an interesting concept to have one mafia in two separate pools of players but hadn't thought through how townsided it would be to run this without an NK. I was just looking at the setup page again and I believe I can explain why I thought there wasn't an NK, it was this section -

"Night zero, one Mafia Goon neighborizes two of the Vanilla Townies, and the other Mafia Goon neighborizes the remaining five of them.

The rest of the game

is Mountainous."

[emphasis mine]

In my first read through, I assumed the "rest of the game" phrasing was used in a temporal sense to suggest there were no more night phases the rest of the game, since the sentence immediately preceding was talking about 'night zero'.

Specifically, I just signed up for this because it was the next available game in the Micro queue and I've played with a bunch of players here before.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Emphasiz on: "he’s done basically the same here."

[NorwegianboyEE]

Tinfoil theory, Bingle knows i absolutely hate N_M's guts and therefore put is in the same hood so we would destroy each other.

How serious is this comment?
Is it actually a well-known thing that you hate him?

I don’t think Vander makes this comment if N_M is his partner as he would already know this probably.

[Bingle]

I’m extremely bad at reading Dunnstral. If you can explain how he thinks and plays as scum, and why he wouldn’t be bold like that, feel free to enlighten me.

Dunn likes to low effort as both alignments ime. Calling out a partner as sus while voting one of the other people in the pool is something that is going to inevitably look bad and without the context of the last game it isn't a safe assumption we'll solve in the 6p first.

Is Dunn capable of being bold like that? Sure. Would Dunn actually draw late game attention to himself for a throwaway RVS vote? I don't think so, when he very much prefers to take the back seat and passively manipulate the thread.

[GuiltyLion]

Vanderscamp's ISO doesn't lend itself well to being allied with N_M imo. Ping me if you disagree.

I disagree with this, I called out in 160 some weird reasoning he's using to scumread both Lukewarm and N_M, and I suspect it may be that scum!Vanderscamp with scum!N_M trying to paint a false associative between town!Lukewarm and his buddy.

p-edit: @nEE I don't really see why he couldn't post that as scum, even if he knew it was true already. It could be a question to make him look uninformed, and it's also entirely possible N_M didn't mention you at all in pregame scum chat.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Oh yeah, Lukewarm got scumread for some reason by multiple people and i never understood the meaning behind it.

[GuiltyLion]

actually, let me rephrase that, it's unlikely he doesn't mention you at all given that they have to group townies together, but he could easily say "put me with Norwee for the lulz" and not mention your history* at all

[NorwegianboyEE]

Alright, you convinced me.
If Marcistar towns it up more than Vanderscamp i’d vote him too.

[Bingle]

I don’t think Vander makes this comment if N_M is his partner as he would already know this probably.

Hm.

[NorwegianboyEE]

What is hm. What are you trying to say?

[Bingle]

In general, it means "This post is something I find noteworthy in a way I'm not entirely sure I want to share yet but would like other people to pay attention to." but thinking about this further I don't actually see a drawback to bringing this up.

Your argument for N_M not being partnered with Scamp applies equally well to yourself, but you phrased it in a way to avoid that entirely which leaves me inclined to think you might yourself be aligned with scamp and looking to passively clear him.

[NorwegianboyEE]

I don’t think about myself because i know i’m town.

[Bingle]

If you're town I don't have to worry about whether he's your partner.

If you're scum you almost certainly knew what you were doing there.

My point is entirely that if you are scum, Vanderscum equity rises dramatically because of that post.

[Vanderscamp]

I have reconsidered, and I think I am on now leaning towards voting from within the 6 player neighborhood now.

I think I have come to the conclusion that shooting in the 6p neighborhood is better even if we miss Day 1

If we hit the 6p mafia:
Day 1 - Town wins automatically
Day 2 - Town gains 2 confirmed town for Day 3

If we hit the 3p mafia
Day 1 - Town gains 1 Confirmed town for Day 2
Day 2 - Town gains nothing

There is just a much higher reward for hunting within the 6p Mafia

If we vote wrong the mafia kill likely lands in the group of 6, making it easier to figure out

I actually agree that getting out the 3-person hood mafia today makes the game harder than miseliming in the 6 person hood

Going to try to not respond to every single one of these but this stance is absurd

Why?

Because miskilling D1 almost always does not make the game easier than killing correctly.

I think the point you are trying to make is that killing into the big pool first, missing, and getting another NK in there makes solving that pool easier, but I don't think that is close to worth the value of not having to solve the small pool first.
The small pool scum is NOT someone we can just freely guarantee being able to kill if we kill aggressively into the big pool and do badly.

[Dunnstral]

The reason I say that is because if we correctly eliminate in the 3 person pool today, the next 2 nightkills are going to be the other 2 in that pool

If we eliminate in the 6p pool today, and start from the 3p pool tomorrow, I think we have better odds, including if they take the 3p pool down to 2

[Vanderscamp]

My gut reaction to this set up, is that it makes more sense to eliminate from the 3 person neighborhood, unless someone from the 6 person neighborhood really stands out as a scum read.

We did the math last game on killing into the different pools and there was something like a 4% increase in win rate by going small pool first, practically I think it is even better because it ensures one mafia dead at some point in the game, which I think is a lot more valuable than the zero value that an assumption of random killing attributes to it.

But last game the scummiest person was the scum in the big pool and we just killed them D1 for an easy game.

So I looked back at the last game.

It is interesting that you site back that the math was done in the last game, without acknowledging that Bingle was the one that did the math, and that he was town that game, and that he also concluded that it was still better to shoot in the 6P pool.

I have been informed by a monkey that I should treat Bingle's mechanical talk as gospel, regardless of his alignment, but here I can clearly see that ConfirmedTown Bingle made the case that shooting from the 6P pool first is the better strategy.

IIRC Bingle did some initial math which was very wrong, I went back and corrected the math and we both agreed that the correct numbers were something along the lines of 41% town win rate vs 45% town win rate by killing into big pool first and little pool first respectively.
From a math standpoint it's definitely better to kill into the small pool first, bingle and some other people made some arguments about why killing into the big pool first was better that I don't agree with since I think they mostly make assumptions about things being good that are actually neutral.

I don't mind killing into the big pool first if the scummiest person in the game is there but I will advocate very strongly for not avoiding killing into the small pool today just because it is the small pool.