Micro 1010: Divide and Conquer: Round 2 - Game Over!

[GuiltyLion]

Also, Vanders was hesitant to vote Bingle first, that's what the whole deal with him shading Bingle but then voting Marci was about and what first made me suspicious. Reread his whole sequence of posts in the 230s-250s somewherethat I called out several times throughout this game. I think after that sequence he realized he wasn't distancing hard enough to be believable and voted Bingle, and then after nEE and NM started suspecting Bingle he got stuck voting there. Backing off afterwards would have looked even worse.

[GuiltyLion]

Also, Vanders was hesitant to vote Bingle first, that's what the whole deal with him shading Bingle but then voting Marci was about and what first made me suspicious. Reread his whole sequence of posts in the 230s-250s somewherethat I called out several times throughout this game. I think after that sequence he realized he wasn't distancing hard enough to be believable and voted Bingle, and then after nEE and NM started suspecting Bingle he got stuck voting there. Backing off afterwards would have looked even worse.

[GuiltyLion]

GL what do you think about what i've just said?

I think you're right that the scum in the 6p hood getting caught is worst case scenario for scum whereas scum in 3p is most likely going to be sacrificed at some point or another, and that the scumteam are going to be playing around getting rid of the 3p scum to set up the 6p scum as best as possible

I'm not sure yet if I'm convinced that means we should eliminate in the 6p hood first tho since I do think mathematically I'd rather take the safe bet, feels like a world where we mis-elim twice in 6p and wind up with 5p evenly distributed across the pools is the worst possible gamestate.

Ask yourself if scum!GL posts this and then behaves the way I did around Bingle EOD1

Either I'm lying about what I think is good scum play, or I simply fail to execute what I think is the best way to play the game

[GuiltyLion]

I really don't think Lukewarm is likely, all the twilight posting would be hard to do in real time knowing Bingle scumflip was imminent, including posts in our hood between thread lock and flip.

I posted this in our hood and Vander ignored it in favor of not posting at all over the entirety of the night phase, here it is for your viewing pleasure N_M:

I think Vanders' progression on Bingle is quite awkward

in 230 he votes marcistar, despite the fact that he claimed to believe we should eliminate in the 3p. (I still maintain that despite posting a handful of times about eliminating in the 3p, Vanderscamp did not seem to actually care about eliminating in the 3p, especially when most players had suggested that we shouldn't).

He then quotes Bingle posts from prior to 230, in his 231 and 233 he quotes Bingle's 212 and 219, then concludes in 235 that he thinks Bingle is scummier than N_M and that he thinks nEE is town. If that's the case, given that he thinks 3p was a better odds to hit scum and he's townreading one of the 3p, why was he voting elsewhere? I called this out in my post 236 and got a very short 238 in reply, which I didn't sense Vanders genuinely believed given that he spent more time discussing Bingle than marcistar.

Then the progression from question -> I don't like your answer -> vote (in 255, 262, 263) feels like where the decision to bus comes in. Despite scumreading and voting (!) Bingle, Vanders claims he got "nothing" out of Bingle v Hopkirk in 329 - I feel a townie who was voting Bingle as their primary SR there would have had more to say.

I also still agree with my own 469 and I don't think Vanderscamp understood my point nor addressed it in a satisfying way. My point wasn't that he wasn't aware of the pools once he posted, my point was "I was gonna say it's not S-S until I remembered [emphasis mine] it couldn't be" betrays a lack of critical thought or care about the pools when analyzing interactions. I haven't once forgotten who was in which pool this game, because it's centrally important to determining who scum is. Vanders post implied that he did, which I find hard to believe coming from town.

I also think Bingle's openwolf 477 may have been meant to scare us away from a Vander wagon.

[GuiltyLion]

I'm gonna keep 1v1ing I guess cause none of y'all else want to post I suppose

I don't think that the 3p scum is anything close to a lost cause in this setup given the number of people who are happy to kill into the big pool first.
I also pushed bingle before he got suspicion iirc

This is a pretty fundamental disagreement between us I think. If we had mis-elimmed in the big pool, I'm pretty sure the correct call after that would be to lim (up to) twice in the small pool to at least take a 66% chance of hitting scum with a F5 as worst case scenario. So in my mind, scum team is playing this entire game around losing the 3p scum member, even prior to gamestart in how they divide the pools.

Do you disagree with me on that? This ^ has been centrally driving how I've been evaluating players the entire game.

[GuiltyLion]

GL why do you think Bingle (effectively) self hammered when you'd stated that you were going to be back reading between him and hopkirk the next day?

If I had to guess, I think it's because he thought he was most likely to be eliminated (N_M and nEE seemed pretty set on voting Bingle instead of Hop) and there was enough effective distance between him and Vanders at that point. Maybe he thought I could have town told myself by landing on Bingle (personally I doubt it would have been that town-indicative at that stage, because I think as scum it would have been better for me to bus or have bussed by that point). Either way there was nothing really for scum to gain by the day continuing at that juncture so I guess he wanted to end the day before any further surprises could come up, Vanders wagon had died down at that point IIRC but it's obviously better for him to go down first being the 3p scum

[GuiltyLion]

I'm here if you have any last things you want to back and forth, otherwise I'll just reply to your posts

[GuiltyLion]

Vanders pushes GL a lot less than i'd expect from someone who thinks GL is reading him in bad faith around the 700-900 area

also, that's the only reason he really gave for pushing me. At no point has he tried to explain why my interactions with Bingle (or any other non-Vanders slot) are scum-motivated. If he knew that I was scum, especially at the point of voting me today in F3, it should be easier for him to be bringing forward some of those arguments. Instead, even today he just takes the angle that I have convinced him that you are town

[GuiltyLion]

when/where/how did you confidently sort NM @GL?

I don't think I ever did confidently sort NM. Usually with him I have to wait and see where his votes/reads lie to try to sort him cause he's actually fairly decent scum hunter as town and historically if I'm agreeing with most of his votes then he's more likely town. But that was a little harder in this setup given it'd be easy for him as scum to focus between nEE/Bingle, which is kinda how his play looked D1. I think all I really got was a disassociative read between him and marci.

Here is where I'd urge you to consider again that at no point was I

especially

confident either way on Bingle or N_M which is again part of why I was hesitant to vote there. and that if you are considering me as potential scum with Bingle because a lack of strong associatives, you could make the same analysis with my relation to N_M as I didn't give a lot of reads/back and forth with him either. again I'd make the point that the reality is I wasn't trying to position myself as more or less likely town with anybody in the 3p, because I was town and operating without an agenda on how I wanted people to see my slot.

[GuiltyLion]

i find the progression on Marci here really hard to buy as coming from town
going from never voting never voting , fully sorted, why won't you hard commit to the read as kind of a gotcha question to vanders > a vote feels like it came far too easily & GL only looked through Marci's iso here? it feels weird to have hard 100% townlocked her without the reread first
plus even when voting Marci it's stuff like 'for the same reasons as my vanders SR' while hard TRing me but also seeming unsure? like how isn't that a scumpool of Marci/Vanders afterwards

the read is very confident then flips at the exact time it would really benefit scum!GL to flip the read and matches the behaviours scum GL does seem to exhibit in the scumreads that don't feel genuine

on this, I regret how I played around marci here. The first post you quoted

was

a gotcha question to Vanders, I felt he was just 1v1ing with me a) to discredit me, and b) as an excuse to not have to sort other slots in the game. I also felt it was suspicious if he was scum and frustrating if he was town that he didn't seem to think it would be understandable/valid for town!me to be scumreading him. 758 was definitely a manipulative post, I was annoyed that nobody seemed to be buying my case on him and was playing with an intention to make him look as bad as possible cause I thought I might get limmed first at this point.

I started flipping on marci when I tried to consider being wrong on Vanders, and that her D2 play felt really tentative and reluctant to do much. There was also 884 in which I doubted myself that I was the only correct townie, and 885 where I felt if I had been wrong on Vanders, marci was trying to set me up to look bad after the fact.

Try to empathize with how I felt early-mid D2, I had what I thought was a pretty solid case on Vanders and everyone was either ignoring it, outright disagreeing with it, and suspecting me. You unvoted Vanders and voted me, and Lukewarm was clearly moving to vote me as well. At times, especially earlier in the day I took an attitude of "fuck it, burn him to the ground so that if he wins the 1v1 and you flip first he can't possibly win", but then later I tried to not be so tunneled/confrontational and really open my perspective to if I had just completely been wrong on him. It's hard to tell when you're in a tunnel if you're right and you need to take charge and bully the rest of the town into following you on your read - because if you are actually wrong then that can really fuck over the gamestate and the town. I try not to let my ego get ahead of me, and over the course of no one agreeing with me on D2 I let my scumread get worn down. In hindsight I shouldn't have done that and it was bad play, especially when I convinced myself on eliminating marci first

[GuiltyLion]

on the marci progression, I'd also to encourage you to look at my 901 and 904 ask yourself if it's fair and how much it makes sense for scum!me to post that. That was me honestly trying to re-evaluate marci and come up with the case for her being scum, and I didn't really fully succeed in convincing myself. I was no longer as sure about her being town, but I wasn't all that sure about her being scum either, and I mainly felt I should hammer because she

could

have been scum, Luke/N_M felt she was scum, and it would move the game forward by that point.

[GuiltyLion]

during the lulls where you're considering/voting other people (Dunn/Marci) it doesn't really feel like you've got reasons why your previous solid reasons Vanders is scum don't apply and you bring up the same reasons afterwards

the point about Vanders being scum for voting Marci when he TR Norway & scumleaned Bingle doesn't feel super strong when another criticism is that Vanders voted Bingle shortly afterwards. i can see this as scum, but i can also see it as town shopping around on their votes. it feels a bit harsh arguing that vanders' vote on bingle was scum because he considered voting someone else before committing to the bus

during the lulls when you were rethinking Vanders do you ever address stuff like

- Vander's vote on Marci instead of Bingle
- Vander's post saying he forgot the hoods
- not reading the hood
etc

and say why these kind of things that you thought were smoking guns/strong reasons to SR that you couldn't reconcile coming from town didn't apply?

it feels like you still believed a number of things both both and after the moments where you switch to TRing Vanders and i'm unclear how you mitigated their impact during the time when you were questioning the read

On these points, I'm not sure I can quite explain where my head is or was at satisfyingly but I'll try.

I don't think I ever achieved a state of convincing myself "I was wrong about these reasons, they're actually not scummy, and Vanders is probably town". That's why I kept coming back to them or bringing them up, including the start of F3 today. Instead, what kept happening is Vanders would make a post or two that I could imagine being a town post, or he'd raise a decent point against marci or Dunn, and I'd think about the fact that no one else seems convinced by my points, and wind up doubting my read and think maybe I'm focusing too much on stuff that isn't especially indicative.

I think with hindsight, the Big Mistake I made this game was not finding great reasons to townread Vanders but rather just operating from a mindset of "If I'm wrong and Vanders is town, who would be scum then?", and then letting myself follow through with those votes/eliminations and hoping they'd hit scum even though none of them felt super great. I had decent reasons to townread marci/Dunn, but I'd find some decent-seeming reasons to POE to them or find their later play scummy, and use that as basis to feel okay about eliminating them. There was never a point this game where I truly felt Vanders was a solid townread, certainly not on the level I got to with Luke or Hop-prior-to-F3, and so what you're looking for isn't there in my posts or my thought processes.

I can see why in your shoes that looks like it could be scum sitting back and capitalizing on town making mistaken pushes, and saving a convenient back-pocket scumread that no one else wants for myself to push in F3. I think the main points I have against that is that I don't believe (feel free to re-ISO me and check and push back on this if you disagree) at any point that I specifically goaded or manipulated people into voting marci or Dunn on D2, my re-evaluations on them and ultimate decisions to support those eliminations were after people seemed inclined to push those wagons without me. If I'm scum, that's really fortunate that it played out for me like that, especially on D2 when people were willing to eliminate me. If I'm scum I was

really

in the backseat for the crucial moments where the eliminations got decided. Dunn and N_M wanted marci, Lukewarm at some point scumread and voted pretty much everyone EXCEPT Vanders, etc. It felt like the town never rallied around my Vanders scumread and as a result I was faced with a choice to either stubbornly stick to it or to capitulate and land on a different elimination following what other townies wanted. I opted for the latter

Rereading the start of D3, there was a point where both you and Luke voted Vanders and I waffled and suspected marci, I also felt Vanders 1038 was a townie post - this is probably the biggest mistake I made this game, I should have re-evaluated again and stuck with Vanders at this point.

Part of me thinks that would have been what I would have done had I been scum, marci likely would be an easier push in F3, but I could also imagine a case where scum!GL flipping a town!Vanders looks really bad on scum!GL so I'm not sure that argument really holds a ton of water.

[GuiltyLion]

how well do you think Norway can read you? would this be a reason not to put you in the bigger pool?

The last time we were both town in Philosopher's we got into a big fight that lasted a lot of D1, I mistakenly scumread him and I think he OMGUS'd me pretty hard and that was the root of us clashing. Ultimately we did kinda resolve each other by EOD and then I was NK'd so we didn't play beyond that.

We have synced well as town together several times before though, Smuggler's Port and some other Newbie game, but I haven't been scum against him as town, so I can't say for certain if he'd find me out easily and it's kinda hard for me to answer. I don't think I'd feel confident in pocketing him, honestly I think if I had been scum I would have wanted to put myself in the 3p, try to win a 1v1 against somebody else in the 3p on D1, then let myself get bussed D2 or D3 depending on how that went so I wouldn't have to play this out.

[GuiltyLion]

that was the point when he became more scummy to me than marci and so I voted him.
As soon as he became my top scum read I voted him.

This is the lie! This is what I've been saying all game. Saying Marci was a bigger scumread than Bingle makes no sense, looking at everything you posted. You said Marci was awkward. Awkward is awkward, it isn't necessarily scum, and everyone knows that.

At the same time, you gave a bunch of solid reasons to suspect Bingle. Good reasons! Much better than "he's awkward". Yet you voted Marcistar instead.

On top of this, in the same series of posts you said you had nEE down as a solid townread. So from your point of view, Bingle should be roughly a 50% proposition already, on top of all the points you had against him.

It's a lie to say you had a stronger scumread on Marci. Nothing in your posts demonstrated that, and from a pure probability standpoint it doesn't make sense either.

[GuiltyLion]

I don't think you ever voted him at any point, despite apparently (having said this the next day) that my case on bingle early D1 was so convincing that it's extremely strange that I did not immediately vote him over Marci,

This is a misrep. Just because I thought they were good reasons to suspect Bingle, does not mean I was convinced by them. I wasn't even convinced limming in the 3p was the right move.

What I thought was that

you

should be voting Bingle given the points you were making against him in the thread. Your thought process did not match your vote.

[GuiltyLion]

Here's the whole sequence of posts for reference. Look at how much more Vander had to say about Bingle, who he was not voting, compared to Marci, who he was voting.

VOTE: Marcistar
This feels the most likely to be scum cumulatively when looking at both worlds.

i agree

explain please.. what makes me most likely

Why do you agree?

Oh and "not really townie" is a fancy shorthand way of saying that literally nothing you’ve said is something i think you couldn’t say as scum.

oh smhsmh u shouldve just said that.
lmk if u want me to vote myself

tbh im just waiting for juicier gossip

VOTE: marcistar

This is very awkward

I’m extremely bad at reading Dunnstral. If you can explain how he thinks and plays as scum, and why he wouldn’t be bold like that, feel free to enlighten me.

Dunn likes to low effort as both alignments ime. Calling out a partner as sus while voting one of the other people in the pool is something that is going to inevitably look bad and without the context of the last game it isn't a safe assumption we'll solve in the 6p first.

Is Dunn capable of being bold like that? Sure. Would Dunn actually draw late game attention to himself for a throwaway RVS vote? I don't think so, when he very much prefers to take the back seat and passively manipulate the thread.

I don't like or understand this.

Why do you think Dunn is being bold?
Because I don't think a throwaway RVS vote is being bold in any way, and I haven't seen anything from him that contradicts him taking the back seat and passively manipulating.

Additionally, he wasn't directly calling n_m sus, he was just speculating on why he was in the pool. It might have been indirect but even if it was, it's not like a super bold statement to make.

Vanderscamp's ISO doesn't lend itself well to being allied with N_M imo. Ping me if you disagree.

I disagree with this, I called out in 160 some weird reasoning he's using to scumread both Lukewarm and N_M, and I suspect it may be that scum!Vanderscamp with scum!N_M trying to paint a false associative between town!Lukewarm and his buddy.

p-edit: @nEE I don't really see why he couldn't post that as scum, even if he knew it was true already. It could be a question to make him look uninformed, and it's also entirely possible N_M didn't mention you at all in pregame scum chat.

In general, it means "This post is something I find noteworthy in a way I'm not entirely sure I want to share yet but would like other people to pay attention to." but thinking about this further I don't actually see a drawback to bringing this up.

Your argument for N_M not being partnered with Scamp applies equally well to yourself, but you phrased it in a way to avoid that entirely which leaves me inclined to think you might yourself be aligned with scamp and looking to passively clear him.

I don't like this either since it's pretty easily explained by nor being town and not thinking about the perspective about me being scum with him.

I think bingle is now more scummy than n_m for the stuff I quoted.
I like a lot what Norwegian is saying.

I also think nor_GL is a scum team that absolutely does not exist because of what nor is saying about GL, I don't think nor would be calling GL confirmed town from what GL said if they were scum together.

do you think marcistar is scummier than bingle?

do you think marcistar is scummier than bingle?

Probably, fairly close

[GuiltyLion]

Also Hop please read my 1177 again too, since Vanders replies to one of those Bingle posts I want to highlight how weird Bingles reasoning about Norway and Vander was and how it doesn't benefit him at all to make those arguments about two townies, whereas there is a benefit to try to associate them if Vander is scum

[GuiltyLion]

I was talking about it on D1 - I literally asked you a question about it in 236 and then referred to it again later in 472 when I said I didn't think your Marci vote had any conviction or intent to solve.

Further, you are misrepresenting things when you try to frame this a matter of it being about either of us being "convinced" by the points about Bingle. What I'm calling out is an inconsistency in your attitude and your vote. Townes generally vote who they feel is most likely to be scum, unless they're doing wagonomic compromising with other players to get an elimination through. That's not what happens early D1 though. I pay attention to why people vote who they are voting and it usually stands out to me when they give more reasons for voting somewhere else, yet they don't.

And of course naturally that's only going to stand out more strongly to me after the player you were shading but not voting later flips scum! It started off as a ping/light suspicion amidst a bunch of inherent noise. On D2 after we had Bingle's flip, obviously it's going to stand out more clearly. This is basic mafia play, and there's no "hyppcrisy" there

[GuiltyLion]

The strongest/most meaningful content he's posted has been about Bingle, his questionable reasoning about both the Dunn & Norway slots, but it's rather easy for me to imagine that content being either a) scum!Vanders jumping on a townie making illogical/reachy assertions without justifying why those assertions indicate scum alignment or b) scum!Vanders distancing/bussing a buddy!Bingle.

GL you never brought this up on D1 such hypocrisy much wow

Frankly you should have tried to suggest it was a set up by me, that argument would have been more plausible/reasonable than the one you just went with

[GuiltyLion]

Hop please pay more attention to D1 and D2 than let yourself get sucked into paranoia about me based on my hope for easy answers with Dunn/Marci elims. I became apathetic and intellectually lazy after a slog of a D2 and that was a mistake. But I was sharp and on the ball on D1 and the start of D2. Vanders has been scummy and awkward in all his behavior outside of the Bingle bus, and the evidence that I was picking up on this was present in my ISO the whole way through. My mistake was not holding onto it with as much conviction as it deserved, but it was hard to see that at the time with people disagreeing with me

[GuiltyLion]

'To me, this feels like scum making things up to simulate a fictional thought process. I don't buy it as an authentic one. I find it remarkably hard to imagine that town!Vanderscamp was reading conversation between two players in the same pool and not already aware that it cannot be a S-S interaction. '

would scum think 'forgetting the pools' sounds like a townslip? given your assumption that it was fake immediately does scum!vanders/scum!bingle discuss this and decide it makes vanders sound townie? i feel like your read of this comment was somewhat intense

Sorry I think I forgot to reply to this

The thing is I don't think Vanders was trying to do anything especially manipulative or crafty with that post, I just couldn't grok a world where town posts it. Again, ask yourself did you ever forget who was in which pool? Were you always informing your reads by the information available to us through the 1 scum in each pool nature of the setup?

It was just really really really difficult for me to imagine town just straight up forgetting that Marci/Luke was never SvS. It's "forgetting" foundational information that should have been driving his analysis of every interaction between slots in this game.

[GuiltyLion]

GL what do you think about what i've just said?

I think you're right that the scum in the 6p hood getting caught is worst case scenario for scum whereas scum in 3p is most likely going to be sacrificed at some point or another, and that the scumteam are going to be playing around getting rid of the 3p scum to set up the 6p scum as best as possible

I'm not sure yet if I'm convinced that means we should eliminate in the 6p hood first tho since I do think mathematically I'd rather take the safe bet, feels like a world where we mis-elim twice in 6p and wind up with 5p evenly distributed across the pools is the worst possible gamestate.

Ask yourself if scum!GL posts this and then behaves the way I did around Bingle EOD1

Either I'm lying about what I think is good scum play, or I simply fail to execute what I think is the best way to play the game

I also want to highlight this post again. I think it's actually really good evidence for me being town here and me not lying about why scum!GL would have done a lot more to distance with Bingle

[GuiltyLion]

:/ I was town

[GuiltyLion]

been a long time since I've had to fight for my life in LYLO I learned a fair amount from this game, well played to Vander

[GuiltyLion]

yah I can empathize Hop, I wasn't able to fully convince myself it was Vanders up until he voted me first. The Bingle comment about hammering him was also a really well executed play

My biggest regret is D3 and eliminating marci, I should never have let go of my townread there