Mini Normal 2211 || Summer Meet [Endgame]
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In post 746, humaneatingmonkey wrote:i'm trying to tryhard but I think I can sum up my opinions very concisely in bullet points. i'm never gonna finish if i link every impression, so you can ask that later. but it's good that it's up here so that it can be useful. consider this a collective thing that we can prove/disprove. whatever.
Andante/VFP
• engaged in the game
• transparent and consistent process
• hasn't slipped in perspective
• hasn't demonstrated that they're PR hunting
• isn't incoherently overexplaining in their defense
take: probably town. not gonna consider lynching d1.
Anya
• skirting in the sidelines
• transparent and consistent process
• hasn't slipped in perspective
• i can't characterize their early setup spec as PR hunting
• isn't incoherently overexplaining in their defense.
take: unsure with a slight town bias. not gonna consider lynching d1.
bugspray
• skirting in the sidelines
• surprisingly consistent but opaque process
• hasn't slipped in perspective
• i don't know if i can characterize their early setup spec as PR hunting
• isn't incoherently overexplaining in their defense.
take: unsure. very unsure. dare i say with a slight town bias. i almost want to lynch this for being tough to read, but that's not how you play this game.
Dunnstral
• biggest lurker in this game
• not only is it inconsistent it's also opaque
• hasn't slipped in perspective (probably because they haven't talked)
• the way he interacted with Anya's early setup spec standed out as very specific — like it's PR hunting
• hasn't overexpained anything in their defense (because they haven't talked)
take: unsure with heavy scum bias. this is my "lurker lynch" in d1.
Egix96
• looks engaged, but not really. ("I'm willing to admit, it does feel a bit like he's in commentary mode.")
• transparent but inconsistent process. (very notable thing is that he doesn't move his vote/convictions until it's been seconded by someone else and it doesn't feel like he has his own process.)
• i don't empathize with his perspective
• hasn't demonstrated that they're PR hunting
• isn't incoherently overexplaining in their defense.
take: probably scum. this is one of two of my "probably scum" lynch in d1.
geraintm
• second biggest lurker in the game
• transparent and consistent process (his ground is fucking solid)
• hasn't slipped in perspective (his ground is fucking solid)
• hasn't demonstrated that they're PR hunting.
• isn't incoherently overexplaining in their defense. (again, his ground is fucking solid)
take: disgustingly unsure with a slight town bias. not gonna consider lynching d1.
InsidiousLemons
• engaged in the game
• transparent but inconsistent process
• hasn't slipped in perspective
• hasn't demonstrated that they're PR hunting
• has a habit of overexplaining in their defense, but im not sure if it's incoherent.
take: unsure with a wildcard bias. guy's a good ally if he's town. guy's a dangerous scum if he's scum. almost want to lynch just to flip this slot, but that's not how you play this game.
Ivyeo
• engaged in the game
• transparent and consistent process
• hasn't slipped in perspective
• hasn't demonstrated that they're PR hunting
• isn't incoherently overexplaining in their defense.
take: probably town. not gonna consider lynching d1.
osuka
• looks engaged, but not really (bugs is spot on #220)
• inconsistent and opaque process (hostile, but not really trying to scumhunt. called me scum — DIDNT VOTE ME)
• has slipped in perspective when he chainsaw defended Lemons
• has demonstrated that they're PR hunting (called out gerain as PR, for no good reason)
• has incoherently overexplained in their defenses
take: probably scum. this is one of two of my "probably scum" lynch in d1.
T3
• skirting in the sidelines
• opaque but consistent process
• hasn't slipped in perspective
• hasn't demonstrated that they're PR hutning
• isn't incoherently overexplaining in their defense.
take: unsure with a heavy town bias. not gonna consider lynching d1.
Umlaut
• engaged in the game (when he was here)
• opaque process (keeps his cards close)
• hasn't slipped in perspective
• hasn't demonstrated that they're PR hunting
• isn't incoherently overexplaining in their defense
take: unsure with a heavy town bias. not gonna consider lynching d1- humaneatingmonkey
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osuka, is this you? Confirm.
—
If Dunn is town:
bugspray is pretended to be a derp and pushes my answer as a slip. Lemons and osuka hops in to try and build a viable wagon against me. Egix is a derp and misinterprets my answer as a slip to distance. To distance themselves from Dunn's lynch.
If Dunn is scum:
bugspray pretended to be a derp and pushes my answer as a slip. One out of these people—Lemons, osuka, Egix—hops in to try and build a viable wagon against me to save Dunn from a lynch.
Either way, I think Lemons is obvscum here.- humaneatingmonkey
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Maybe now it's day 2, we can see a different you.In post 1135, geraintm wrote:just popping in to say hello and ive obviously got nothing to add from last night- humaneatingmonkey
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Also Ivy, and ~maybe~ Egix96 as well.
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humaneatingmonkey wrote:osuka, is this you? Confirm.- humaneatingmonkey
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I'm sorry. Instead of Egix96, make this geraintm and T3.In post 1139, humaneatingmonkey wrote:Also Ivy, and ~maybe~ Egix96 as well.- humaneatingmonkey
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he can't think like town because he's scum maybeIn post 1156, Umlaut wrote:You can't seriously think HEM is scum after how yesterday ended.- humaneatingmonkey
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why notIn post 1190, Anya wrote:one of him or apples but not both don't think all 3 wolves go for the slip push thing- humaneatingmonkey
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this could also be distancingIn post 1192, Anya wrote:wait i forgot that bugspray hired an air balloon advertising they weren't partners with osuka- humaneatingmonkey
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https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p11708714
"i think the misgendering gives us negative scum equity so keep peppering it in so i can yell at oyu for it"- humaneatingmonkey
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as long as we're lynching them both, it's fineIn post 1208, Anya wrote:i go for the fire arm vendors personally- humaneatingmonkey
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this post is really sweet, but it's scumIn post 1183, InsidiousLemons wrote:VOTE: osuka
okay, well, this is my tail tucked between my legs moment. i have been facepalming for the past 2 days at how obviously ridiculous osuka's push on hem was. i understand that osuka and i are both obvscum here, the only issue is that i'm not scum. i may have been stupid enough to believe the scumslip push, but i don't believe osuka is. i've seen his reasoning and it is never this overtly wrong. frankly i'm kind of surprised he thinks this push is still viable at all. yes, i understand how absolutely dripping in scum vibes it is to say all this as someone who hopped on the hem wagon. i'm saying it anyway. i really do not have an explanation for why i fell for the scumslip push other than that i was kinda tunneled on hem and really wanted to have found scum. if you still want to lim me tomorrow, do it. you'll have the votes i'm sure.
going back over the ISOs i think VFP could have partner equity with osuka. it's very rare (at least in my experience) to be able to find comments from osuka that overtly point to distancing with no grey area, so take this with a generous grain of salt, but osuka took multiple opportunities to take swipes at andante early in the game, knowing that she was playing pretty much identically to last game (when she was town). taken together with the post where he says he agreed with my early game analysis of andante, there is a case to be made for distancing here. i cant quote right now because mobile but you'll find them if you look. he'll probably counter that he was trying to see if she would react the same way to pressure, which is valid, but again, things are rarely black or white with osuka. VFP coming in and immediately saying he'll coast again could also be taken as VFP creating an opportunity for osuka to distance. again, the case is thin, but this is all my search for possible osuka partners really turned up. scum!Dunn is still a possibility and he didn't really have enough interaction to say whether there's equity there or not.
hem, it is kind of bizarre to me that you're going for me first over osuka. in your "if dunn is scum" scenario, why do you think i'm the scum over osuka?
anyway, hem is all but conftown for the quick flip onto bugs. the fact that osuka is continuing to push him even after the flip is even more damning.- humaneatingmonkey
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can you explain how you're tunnelled at me, Lemons, if you had the foresight to say these things:
In post 983, InsidiousLemons wrote:
once bitten twice shy. is there anything in particular that makes you disbelieve that hem was responding to 899 rather than 901? i understand that it is still sketch but i do think we porbably have better options than HEM todayIn post 981, bugspray wrote:In post 977, humaneatingmonkey wrote:In post 899, bugspray wrote:so why does literally every tpr have to have access to a pt?
it's an answer to another questionIn post 903, humaneatingmonkey wrote:They don't. I just made a mistake.In post 821, Isis wrote:bugspray you can't even comprehend the number of style points you get for winning a mafia game off of a scumslipIn post 985, InsidiousLemons wrote:i'm aware of that fact. i'm saying my confidence that itwasa scumslip is greatly diminished by the strength and simplicity of hem's explanation, and i don't think it's worth limming over when there are other options on the table. how do you feel about my analysis of ivy's case on osuka?- humaneatingmonkey
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can you also explain thisIn post 1007, InsidiousLemons wrote:992 makes a convincing enough case that i could probably go for hem. i didn't notice the time discrepancy at first, and i can't find any other examples of monkey replying to a post that isn't the most recent without a quote or p-edit.- humaneatingmonkey
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can you explain how this could convince you, when you seem to have a good head on your shouldersIn post 992, osuka wrote:
the timing is all wrong. 898, 899, and 900 were all posted within a minute of each other. 903 only comes 10 minutes after that, and 9 minutes after 901 - he had to have had the time to look at the beginning of the next page. he didn't even quote the post? when you're directing something towards a post that is not the most recent, you generally quote what you're replying to or you pedit, neither of which he didIn post 983, InsidiousLemons wrote:
once bitten twice shy. is there anything in particular that makes you disbelieve that hem was responding to 899 rather than 901? i understand that it is still sketch but i do think we porbably have better options than HEM todayIn post 981, bugspray wrote:In post 977, humaneatingmonkey wrote:In post 899, bugspray wrote:so why does literally every tpr have to have access to a pt?
it's an answer to another questionIn post 903, humaneatingmonkey wrote:They don't. I just made a mistake.In post 821, Isis wrote:bugspray you can't even comprehend the number of style points you get for winning a mafia game off of a scumslip- humaneatingmonkey
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is this within Lemons scum range?@Anya, since you've shown that you use meta and you vouch for Lemons, would you kindly do the honors? I'm absolutely tunneled here, and even if I feel like this vulnerability could never come from scum, I'm almost certain it can. I also objectively think Lemons was outright scummy yesterday.@Umlaut, would you kindly tell me what you think about this one?
Lemons, is your solve osuka > VFP? Can you tell me who your solve is?- humaneatingmonkey
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osuka is your only scumread. how can I not think you'll vote him?In post 1241, VFP wrote:Osuka can be scum- humaneatingmonkey
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lmaooIn post 1248, osuka wrote:
if you're me and you rolestopped hem, that vote makes much more senseIn post 1217, Anya wrote:
that's half the reason i'm voting osuka tbh lemons entrance to the stage today is really good and makes some sense while osuka is statically pushing you like he's an electrician with no other thoughtsIn post 1215, humaneatingmonkey wrote:Anya what do you think
hem gets rid of lemons here to make me look bad and gets rid of two people at once, including a PR. he can't kill me lest he implicate himself, so he kills lemons instead and goes "how did osuka know that flip was green"
i kinda sorta have a soft clear on lemons unless there's some other protective role or roleblocker that's unclaimed. if that's the case, i might have this all wrong but please please please don't claim- humaneatingmonkey
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i don't know man. I've only been playing one game with you but your reputation precedes you and it does not disappoint.In post 1254, osuka wrote:do you seriously think i'm that stupid?- humaneatingmonkey
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this feels like frustration. is it not?In post 1245, VFP wrote:You're talking as if I've spent 5 days straight saying x is scum and I'm not sure where this is coming from or why you want to instantly shut this down?- humaneatingmonkey
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