Posted: Sat Jun 19, 2021 3:54 am
Page 9 of 82
Posted: Sat Jun 19, 2021 4:04 am
so no rush right now okay
Posted: Sat Jun 19, 2021 4:05 am
HEAL: ssbm_Kyouko one way to cat6ch scum look at d2 roles
Posted: Sat Jun 19, 2021 4:19 am
And look at what else is sus - midday hits. 125 each is apparently scum trying to gauge where town is bidding. It may even be that if cyrus is town they just withheld all bets, which explains why nothing was hidden at midDay.
5 hours after what is apparently scum trying to gauge where the town is bidding (whether Cyrus is scum or not, tbh he is the only player in the lobby I would say the 125 split is NAI for with confidence). They see nobody is bidding high yet. 5 hours later, in comes Imaginality to lead town toward spending 400 on all roles. Imagine scum dont bid on anything toDay. Town spends 1600, loses 500, or 100 and a purchased role, then in the likely situation that they avoid hitting the doctor target and get a kill, that's another 500 down. We go into D2 8:3 and scum still have the wallet to outbid us on auction detective, and potentially pick up scum roles on the cheap from townies that are down to 100.
Where was this strategy before midday? We were already very deep into mechanical discussion when he made his previous post, so why not bring it up before midDay?
While his suggestion is appealing at first, even to me, from a numbers standpoint, I think what they are doing is baiting town into spending a lot of their money so that in later days scum can outbid.
The next bit gets tinfoil, but I would not be surprised to find out flea is the scum's preferred MO candidate and see that Imaginality eventually concedes and switches his vote there as I'm currently leading. Whether his means flea is scum or one of the scum has a friendly relationship with Flea that may lead Flea to elect that scum as a replacement, I do not know.
5 hours after what is apparently scum trying to gauge where the town is bidding (whether Cyrus is scum or not, tbh he is the only player in the lobby I would say the 125 split is NAI for with confidence). They see nobody is bidding high yet. 5 hours later, in comes Imaginality to lead town toward spending 400 on all roles. Imagine scum dont bid on anything toDay. Town spends 1600, loses 500, or 100 and a purchased role, then in the likely situation that they avoid hitting the doctor target and get a kill, that's another 500 down. We go into D2 8:3 and scum still have the wallet to outbid us on auction detective, and potentially pick up scum roles on the cheap from townies that are down to 100.
Where was this strategy before midday? We were already very deep into mechanical discussion when he made his previous post, so why not bring it up before midDay?
While his suggestion is appealing at first, even to me, from a numbers standpoint, I think what they are doing is baiting town into spending a lot of their money so that in later days scum can outbid.
The next bit gets tinfoil, but I would not be surprised to find out flea is the scum's preferred MO candidate and see that Imaginality eventually concedes and switches his vote there as I'm currently leading. Whether his means flea is scum or one of the scum has a friendly relationship with Flea that may lead Flea to elect that scum as a replacement, I do not know.
Posted: Sat Jun 19, 2021 5:02 am
okay ill keep this in mindIn post 147, Flea The Magician wrote:For now, I won't say no. As the game progresses, I will defer to someone else as I always do.
In post 158, Distance wrote:gj youre town
do u have reasons or just vibes?In post 159, Distance wrote:cyrus is also town
do u always feel the need to explain so much ^.^ it looks kinda like a defense.In post 167, mastina wrote:I'm gonna locktown you right now. Not for any reason mind you, just 'cuz I'm kinda desperate to callsomeonelocktown and calling the slots that are pleasant folks I enjoy thoroughly locktown is as good a metric to use as anything else.
173 makes me think town mindset, tho im really unsure in this
179 i like this approach more.
the just like... asking questions, seems pretty genuine imo. seems like ur trying to better understand things. i feel like that behaviors a townie behavior ^.^In post 182, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:Marci, what part of 108 made me feel more likely town? Meant to ask this before bed but forgot. The post was split into two parts I considered separating into a double post and ofc someone replies and I can't tell which part they're addressing :/
whats their scumslip..?In post 191, imaginality wrote:Acutally, I'm going to follow up and VOTE: ssbm_Kyouko for post #179. Between that possible scum slip, and the downplaying of hitman... on which note, also if ssbm_Kyouko expects MO to draw the NK (per post #31) why didn't he suggest MO bid for scum powers like hitman instead of no-bid? I feel like he's scum hoping to pick up hitman for cheap.
o-o what were u gonna do if he turned on u..?In post 199, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:Btw "downplaying hitman" is echoing VFP in a not-so-transparent attempt to turn him on me as I voted him earlier
huh.. the numbers are starting to make me confused nowIn post 203, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:And look at what else is sus - midday hits. 125 each is apparently scum trying to gauge where town is bidding. It may even be that if cyrus is town they just withheld all bets, which explains why nothing was hidden at midDay.
"125 each is apparently scum trying to gauge where town is bidding" wdym? howd u get this?ahh, idk what to think of imaginality...In post 203, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:While his suggestion is appealing at first, even to me, from a numbers standpoint, I think what they are doing is baiting town into spending a lot of their money so that in later days scum can outbid.
i like ur points, but i originally thought that theyre townie so now im confused Posted: Sat Jun 19, 2021 5:28 am
I'm seeing a lot of shade to the Cyrus slot that's very subtle. Did I miss something?
Not gonna lie, 125 for each slot definitely crossed my mind so I'm very intrigued that your instinct on 125 bid for ALL roles is that it is scum indicative, Kyouko.
Not gonna lie, 125 for each slot definitely crossed my mind so I'm very intrigued that your instinct on 125 bid for ALL roles is that it is scum indicative, Kyouko.
Posted: Sat Jun 19, 2021 5:36 am
Actually Alisae was the last to run it and it was a town winIn post 171, cyrus62 wrote:btw last time market place was done town lost. i joind hoping i could change that.
Posted: Sat Jun 19, 2021 5:41 am
This shouldn’t happenIn post 187, imaginality wrote:- other townies don't bid on it, the convicted person gets quick-hammered, and scum get the role for cheap
Deadline is meant to always run the full length the first 4 days so the auctions can function
Posted: Sat Jun 19, 2021 5:42 am
suuuuureIn post 195, cyrus62 wrote:hey i was hoping i could win all 4 and become all powerful now i find out if i win hit man i cant use it shame.
Posted: Sat Jun 19, 2021 5:46 am
hmmm i clicked the link that was provided in the sign up so i could be wrong. fyi if i was scum the bids would have been higher then 125 each. most likely i would have done 150 each. or maybe 175. why becuse it would have draind town more. 125 is easy for town to out bid. and also i said 10 vs 3 4 slots 4 days 500 from town on all slots 1st two days would have hurt scum the most only 3 scum if they out bided the 500 they wouldnt be able to out bid town for the last 3 days. but that was on page 2 i think .In post 206, Gamma Emerald wrote:Actually Alisae was the last to run it and it was a town winIn post 171, cyrus62 wrote:btw last time market place was done town lost. i joind hoping i could change that.
Posted: Sat Jun 19, 2021 5:48 am
As I see it it’s reasonable to expect scum to enact a bidding strategy that involve more than one player
125 on each can be managed by 2-3 scum without dipping below 500 for later days
125 on each can be managed by 2-3 scum without dipping below 500 for later days
Posted: Sat Jun 19, 2021 5:49 am
however we dont have pt so that is a bad idea cause scum would just aim for those 4 people.
Posted: Sat Jun 19, 2021 5:51 am
It would depend on how he goes about it. We'll see what I do if he does I suppose.In post 204, marcistar wrote:o-o what were u gonna do if he turned on u..?In post 199, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:Btw "downplaying hitman" is echoing VFP in a not-so-transparent attempt to turn him on me as I voted him earlier
At first I thought it was town, 125 x 4 = 500, the total that town has. That was the initial, simplest conclusion I drew. However Imaginality questioned me on it, wondering why I thought it indicated town rather than scum, and I hadn't entertained that possibility yet since it looks so apparently town.In post 204, marcistar wrote:huh.. the numbers are starting to make me confused nowIn post 203, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:And look at what else is sus - midday hits. 125 each is apparently scum trying to gauge where town is bidding. It may even be that if cyrus is town they just withheld all bets, which explains why nothing was hidden at midDay.
When I did consider that it could be scum, it changed things for me. I realized that if 1 scum did this it would appear towny to an auction detective, and if 2 scum did it by separating the bids, all 3 of them would still have enough left to outbid a maximum town bid of 500.
I think I was wrong though. Scum could just as easily all agree not to place any bids, to see what town bids before committing any funds. The important thing here is the timing at which the 401 strat was announced. It's very convenient if Imaginality is town, and if he is scum it drives our wallets low enough we can easily be outbid later.
Posted: Sat Jun 19, 2021 5:55 am
@mod
Is Gamma correct in that Day phase will not end when someone is convicted of tax evasion? Will all Days that have Auctions last until deadline? I re-skimmed the OP and it seems unclearIn post 200, Gypyx wrote:With 13 players alive, it takes 7 votes to convict someone for tax evasion, day 1 ends in 1 day, 13 hours, 20 minutes
Posted: Sat Jun 19, 2021 5:56 am
starting to feel gamma is just a toxic player. so i most likely will just ignore them. as town i dont lie and as scum i still dont lie. so to think i lied or to even suggest i am urks me badly. read my scum games again gamma you will see i do not lie . even in life. my one fault and most likely why i stink at being scum is never ever lieing.
Posted: Sat Jun 19, 2021 5:58 am
To be clear, we should still not have quickhammers if Gamma is right,
as we should give townie players a chance to dump their bid onto a scum role and take it to the grave. Yes this still gives scum the chance to do the same to a town role, but there are less of them than us, and there are more good town roles than good scum ones iirc.
as we should give townie players a chance to dump their bid onto a scum role and take it to the grave. Yes this still gives scum the chance to do the same to a town role, but there are less of them than us, and there are more good town roles than good scum ones iirc.
Posted: Sat Jun 19, 2021 5:59 am
if i said i bided on all four roles and put 125 on each then that's what i did. i should have read the rules better cause i thought i could remove a bid and raise one.
Posted: Sat Jun 19, 2021 6:00 am
i dont see not one else coming forward do you?
Posted: Sat Jun 19, 2021 6:11 am
This is somewhat covered in my response to Marci, but if you reread me, you will see that myIn post 205, Cupcake Butterfly wrote:I'm seeing a lot of shade to the Cyrus slot that's very subtle. Did I miss something?
Not gonna lie, 125 for each slot definitely crossed my mind so I'm very intrigued that your instinct on 125 bid for ALL roles is that it is scum indicative, Kyouko.
instinct
is that 125 all indicates town. It was my conclusion after reconsideration, when prompted by Imaginality, that it indicates scum manipulation, but scum could have more easily just withheld all bids to see what was being bid on. That's why they didnt hide anything at midday.Occams says scum didnt bid anything before midday I think.
Posted: Sat Jun 19, 2021 6:19 am
hmm oopsIn post 213, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:@mod
Is Gamma correct in that Day phase will not end when someone is convicted of tax evasion? Will all Days that have Auctions last until deadline? I re-skimmed the OP and it seems unclearIn post 200, Gypyx wrote:With 13 players alive, it takes 7 votes to convict someone for tax evasion, day 1 ends in 1 day, 13 hours, 20 minutes
it appears i messed up, gtg now, but the game is supposed to use plurality, given that we're early in the game we're switching to that system, sorry for any inconviniences
Posted: Sat Jun 19, 2021 6:48 am
fyi i wouldnt trust gamma to town the random shade comes off as scum.
Posted: Sat Jun 19, 2021 6:50 am
VOTE: Gamma Emerald this gives gamma the most votes . so they are on the choping block.
Posted: Sat Jun 19, 2021 7:34 am
Oh I dont know if I directly explained this in my reply, what I mean is, by bidding low, scum will see at midday if anyone had outbid them so far. If anything showed 125 or 0, depending on cyrus's alignment, scum would know they are either winning the bid so far, or that nobody else was bidding. If something showed up greater than 125 or greater than 0, again depending on cyrus's alignment, scum would know where town is currently bidding.In post 204, marcistar wrote:trying to gauge where town is bidding" wdym? howd u get this?
Posted: Sat Jun 19, 2021 7:36 am
Is plurality only evaluated at deadline, or if majority is reached, does the day end before deadline would expire?In post 219, Gypyx wrote:hmm oopsIn post 213, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:@mod
Is Gamma correct in that Day phase will not end when someone is convicted of tax evasion? Will all Days that have Auctions last until deadline? I re-skimmed the OP and it seems unclearIn post 200, Gypyx wrote:With 13 players alive, it takes 7 votes to convict someone for tax evasion, day 1 ends in 1 day, 13 hours, 20 minutes
it appears i messed up, gtg now, but the game is supposed to use plurality, given that we're early in the game we're switching to that system, sorry for any inconviniences
Posted: Sat Jun 19, 2021 7:39 am
okay then let's test thatIn post 214, cyrus62 wrote:starting to feel gamma is just a toxic player. so i most likely will just ignore them. as town i dont lie and as scum i still dont lie. so to think i lied or to even suggest i am urks me badly. read my scum games again gamma you will see i do not lie . even in life. my one fault and most likely why i stink at being scum is never ever lieing.
are you scum