Mini Theme 2244: 3d20 uRoll – Somewhere In New Jersey [End]

[Loftwing]

Cyrus is like the Anti Not_Mafia.

[Loftwing]

Enchant claimed to kill the cult leader.

I don't think we know who killed Dunnstral.

[Loftwing]

Keep in mind, all of this is pure speculation from Cyrus, and could very well be false.

[Loftwing]

If Dunn and enchant were swapped then Bingle wouldn't have gotten a not town result

Not what I ment . I'm saying what if loft was switch with enchant. What if bingel hit loft thinking it was enchant after all how else did enchant not kill bingel. The same queston with strange. So enchant was swap with loft but wouldn't owl die for targeting enchant. What if owl died targeting strange. That would mean a one shot doc on owl 1st night. No shot on owl 2nd night.

If Owl swapped me and Enchant, then Owl would have died to Enchant, because owl would have needed to visit Enchant to swap them.

Even so, we know that this is false right off the bat even if Enchant wasn't a PGO. STD tracked me N1, and got Bingle's results of visiting Enchant. Are you really about to suggest that Enchant somehow visited themselves, and survived not only their own PGO kill, but their normal kill as well?

[Loftwing]

Cyrus, please explain how Save The Dragons tracked me to Enchant.

[Loftwing]

i'm a tracker.

i tracked loftwing to enchant.

Cyrus. Explain this. Now.

[Loftwing]

Cyrus, if I was swapped with Enchant, then Save The Dragons would have tracked Enchant, correct? Not Tracked

to

Enchant, but

tracked Enchant directly.

[Loftwing]

Assuming that Enchant did kill ssbm, why didn't Save The Dragons see that when they tried tracking me, but were redirected to Enchant?

[Loftwing]

Ok, look, let me lay this out to you in standard form for logic.

1) Owl Swaps Loftwing and Enchant

2) Save The Dragons targets me.

3) If 1 and 2 are true, then Save The Dragons would be redirected to target Enchant.

4) Enchant visited SSBM

5) If 3 and 4 are true, then Save The Dragons would receive that their target visited SSBM.

6) Save The Dragons received that their target visited Enchant.

7) 5 and 6 are contradictory, therefore at least one of premises 1 through 6 are false.

[Loftwing]

Incorrect, try again.

[Loftwing]

Incorrect, try again.

[Loftwing]

Incorrect, try again.

[Loftwing]

Yeah who was Bingle's doctor target N1?

Bingle didn't use their Doc ability N1.

[Loftwing]

Enchant, please let me visit your grave. I grave the sweet release of death from this mortal coil.

[Loftwing]

Yea I'll wait for him to answer

I should start tabling stuff

Dweelee, can you please read over Cyrus' Grand Fact that Owl, contrary to all current evidence, Bus Drove me and Enchant, instead of me and bingle?

[Loftwing]

So, there are a plethora of holes in your analysis here, cyrus. Let me point them all out for you.

god i hate this some else solve this for me

i'm a tracker.

i tracked loftwing to enchant.

1. why is loftwing alive if enchant is a PGO?
2. why did ssbm die if loftwing is a RB?
3. why did mama ru claim roleblock if loftwing didn't target mama ru?
4. i don't fucking know how bus driver works, so i guess loftwing got bus driven but if so, why am i so confused, is loftwing just straight up lying?

See this fits with what I said. Enchant admits to killing ssbm.

I think 2nd shows ssbm being visited.

If that were the case, then why didn't Save The Dragons just say "i tracked loftwing to ssbm" instead of "i tracked loftwing to enchant"?
This post is incorrect.

Ok, look, let me lay this out to you in standard form for logic.

1) Owl Swaps Loftwing and Enchant

2) Save The Dragons targets me.

3) If 1 and 2 are true, then Save The Dragons would be redirected to target Enchant.

4) Enchant visited SSBM

5) If 3 and 4 are true, then Save The Dragons would receive that their target visited SSBM.

6) Save The Dragons received that their target visited Enchant.

7) 5 and 6 are contradictory, therefore at least one of premises 1 through 6 are false.

Again if you visited enchant why did you live.

Nowhere in that post did I say that I visited Enchant. Nowhere in my ISO did I say that I ever visited Enchant. Please point out where I said that I ever visited Enchant.

god i hate this some else solve this for me

i'm a tracker.

i tracked loftwing to enchant.

1. why is loftwing alive if enchant is a PGO?
2. why did ssbm die if loftwing is a RB?
3. why did mama ru claim roleblock if loftwing didn't target mama ru?
4. i don't fucking know how bus driver works, so i guess loftwing got bus driven but if so, why am i so confused, is loftwing just straight up lying?

See this fits with what I said. Enchant admits to killing ssbm.

I think 2nd shows ssbm being visited.

5 states you didn't target ru.

coughs I ment 3 then he came out you were lieing.

Wrong. 3 states that Mama ru claimed roleblocked, and asked if I didn't do it, then who did.

My explanation for my vote:

I prefer eliminating Loftwing to Regrider

Hmm why did dun die. Either loft and strange killed dun or dun was driven in to enchant thinking it was loft.

If I killed Dunn, then how did I roleblock Mama Ru, or how did I also visit Enchant?
Also, Dunn had a nonvisiting role. More importantly, had I visited Dunn, Owl's bus drive would have failed on me, and by extension, Save The Dragon's track would have failed on me.

My explanation for my vote:

I prefer eliminating Loftwing to Regrider

Hmm why did dun die. Either loft and strange killed dun or dun was driven in to enchant thinking it was loft.

In which case bingel not town was loft. Bingel lived becuse he hit loft not enchant. Loft claims he roll block ru and dw. Std wanted to know why loft visited enchant and why is ssbm dead and why ru was claiming they were role-blocked

Owl did not bus drive me and Enchant. I don't know how this passed you by, especially because you're a member of the Mafia.
Since Owl did not bus drive me and enchant, Bingle would not have been redirected to me if they targeted Enchant.

Yeah who was Bingle's doctor target N1?

Bingle didn't use their Doc ability N1.

He stated he only had cop finder left. There for he used it.

If I say that I ate 5 cookies, it would not be reasonable to assume that I ate 5 cookies while my mouth was sewn together and also duct taped shut.
Bingle may have used his doctor ability at some point, but he literally could not have used it Night 1. If he did use it Night 1, then he could not have used his bloodhound to find anyone.

[Loftwing]

I honestly think that Cyrus is flailing here and being obvious scum, and should be killed ASAP. Any night plan we come up with should not include him, because he should die,

[Loftwing]

Bullshit.

[Loftwing]

I'm currently trying to find ways that owl could target every one night one. And how bingel lived after targeting enchant. And who killed dun . And also how loft lived after being tracked to enchant.

Why? Night 1 is solved, my guy.

Owl Swapped Me and Bingle.
Bingle Visited Enchant.
Save The Dragons (and presumably a protective role) target me, and get redirected to Bingle.
Save The Dragons, who is now targeting Bingle, sees that Bingle visited Enchant. It is important to note that Save The Dragons originally targeted me, and so thinks that they are seeing me visit Enchant.
(A protective role presumably targeted me as well, and was redirected into Bingle, protecting bingle from dying.)

We don't know who kill Dunnstral, and we probably won't know until the end of the game.

[Loftwing]

Is Cyrus solo scum or partnered with someone loftwing?

Feel like we are missing a kill somewhere both nights

I don't think it really matters here if Cyrus still has a living partner here. If there is still a living scum after we axe Cyrus, then I think there would only be one of them. If Cyrus has two living partners here, then we would be pretty much screwed anyway.

I think the total Kill Power at the beginning was 3 (+1), then went down to 2 (+1), then 2 (or 1, if there aren't any mafia left) to either 2 or 1 (if there are 2 solo scum, or just one)

I think if Owl is the only mafia member, and they chose not to kill but instead to bus drive Night 1, then we would get our expected deaths (2 deaths)

Sidenote, the +1 refers to the Alien Kill Power.

[Loftwing]

Come to think of it, maybe StrangeMatter killed Dunnstral. I would imagine that this would be optimal for any scum member who's also a PGO. Anyone who tries to stop you will, but at the cost of their life. Anyone who investigates you will also die.

[Loftwing]

I don't think that we'd need 2 players fakeclaiming prot, but I would find it rather hilarious if STD was a Mafia Double Doctor. That would've been perfect.

In any case, do we have any evidence that Cyrus is an even night Jailkeep?

[Loftwing]

Spoiler:

Okay so the conclusion here though is that one of loft/STD/Bingle is scum, right?

Cause a doctor only protects loftwing if they're scum with them right? Or if they are swapping loftwing and bingle and are scum with bingle so protect loftwing to protect bingle

And the doctor can't be me or mama ru cause we were roleblocked.

The other possibility is that scum STD is lying about seeing "loftwing" (where we are drawing the bus drive from) visit Enchant

That or someone else visited enchant and was bus driven with Loftwing, but that isn't possible cause then we would need two doctor protections

Summary: I think one of Bingle/STD/Loftwing has to be scum here

Anyone disagree?

Could you walk me through your thinking? I don't quite understand it at all.

[Loftwing]

I'd just like it laid out plainly, like a logical formalism or something.

[Loftwing]

Proof that one of Loft/Bingle/STD is scum:

Assume STD is town. If not, we are done.

Assume Bingle is town. If not, we are done.

Then Loftwing must have been swapped with Bingle by the bus driver per STD's result. This implies that Loftwing was targeted with a heal, but the heal comes from scum, and scum would only want to heal scum, so loftwing is scum.

Yeah, I think this is solid.

Of course, if I am scum, then I am never scum alone here, or else there would be no one to heal me.

[Loftwing]

Wait, what if me and the scum doctor were on different teams?

[Loftwing]

If we were on different scum teams, that would mean that they must either be a Mafia member (which implicates Bingle). or a werewolf (who would very much not want to heal their PGO teammate). The only alternative is that they're an alien, but then they must have failed to perform their night action on Night 2.

[Loftwing]

So, let's look at the cases for the scum doctor.

If the Scum Doctor is Mafia, then Bingle is directly implicated, as the scum doctor would have known where their final action would end up, mainly on Bingle.
However, this would also mean that there were 3 eligible mafia members who could have killed, one of them being protected (Bingle), and yet we only got 2 kills, from the Serial Killer and from the Werewolf. This is unlikely.

If the Scum Doctor is a Wolf, then they would have negative incentive to target their partner (they would die.) Therefore, they either target someone at random, or they target their other scum partner, which implicates me. In either case, I am targeted, but the bus driver swaps me and Bingle, so Bingle is protected. While improbable, this makes more logical sense than 3 mafia members all refusing to kill.

If the Scum Doctor is an Alien, then they would target their other alien friend. However, if I were an Alien, then I would be the superior protection, so they would instead target me, which would swap onto Bingle. In this case, I am also implicated. However, if I am not an Alien, then the scum doctor is also never an alien.

[Loftwing]

If a scum Doctor is Neutral, then we either have a Serial Killer on our hands, or a Jester.

[Loftwing]

Well, that would be in addition to whatever scum actually exists.

[Loftwing]

I don't think it's possible for Loft to be last scum here, based on N1. Loft protective targets me -> Tracker shouldn't see Enchant. Loft protective targets Owl -> Owl can't self busdrive, tracker still shouldn't see Enchant.

Well, no. STD said they targeted me, which in turn means they targeted you, which means tracker would see that you visited Enchant.

[Loftwing]

So, here's a plan:

Dweelee Jailkeeps Cyrus (to prevent Cyrus from jailkeeping me in turn, and potentially allowing their potential scumbud from comitting murder.)

I roleblock both STD and Bingle.

This leaves Mama Ru to investigate whoever

[Loftwing]

It could also be that we're looking for a babysitter instead of a doctor.

[Loftwing]

I wonder if PGO is disabled if the player it's attached to used an action? I would presume not, but if it is then that could also solve what happened.

[Loftwing]

The optimal outcome of tonight is that there is no kill, Cyrus.

[Loftwing]

Ah, fuck. I thought I was a Jake alt.

[Loftwing]

I have a less than 45% winrate as scum

[Loftwing]

We have agreed to murder you in the night like thieves

Jake, shut the fuck up.

[Loftwing]

The idea is that if you target eachother, then the resolution is that neither of you get to act.

[Loftwing]

It literally doesn't matter if he's multitasking, it wouldn't matter if you were multitasking, you still couldn't do jack shit.

[Loftwing]

Look at this the other way: How would he act if you've already locked him up?

[Loftwing]

I think that Cyrus just doesn't want to be Jailkept by Dweelee for some reason, so that they can jailkeep me, so that their maybe buddy can go murderize others.

[Loftwing]

Just to recap:

I block STD and Bingle
Dweelee and Cyrus jailkeep eachother

STD tracks me, and Bingle does whatever

Mama Ru investigates one of Loftwing, Cyrus, and STD.

[Loftwing]

Okay so who hasn't been checked

Are we SURE there needs to be a doctor

As I've probably said before, mechanical shenanigans that won't be explained until the end of the game.

[Loftwing]

The thing is though is that even if Bingle wouldn't have died because Enchant was Asceticized, Bingle still got a result on Enchant, which is not something you can get on an Ascetic.

[Loftwing]

I think I'm confirmed here to at least be a roleblocker who targeted Bingle (unless you wish to believe that Me, Bingle and Mama Ru are all on the same team) last night.

[Loftwing]

Honestly maybe we flip Cyrus lol

I agree.

Jake the Wolfie has been """wranned""" for posting too much in a game he's not involved in. If you liked this game so much why didn't you join it?

Stop getting Banned, but It's JTW speedrunning 100 altslips.

[Loftwing]

I will vote STD.

State a case I kinda don't trust dw with the muti role? Don't you get it some one is choiseing to no kill

If you didn't trust Dweelee with the Multi role, then why didn't you block him?

[Loftwing]

I will vote STD.

State a case I kinda don't trust dw with the muti role? Don't you get it some one is choiseing to no kill

If you didn't trust Dweelee with the Multi role, then why didn't you block him?

D

ID YOU READ MY POST. I ASKD THE MOD WHAT HAPPENS IF TWO JKS TARGET EACH OTHER NEITHER GETS BLOCKED NEITHER GETS PROTECTED BOTH CANCEL OUT.

I did read it, and there are 0 worlds in which it is a good play.

The only two players who would be capable of killing you specifically would be Ru and Dweelee. But why would they kill you? Why not me, the one who is able to block two players at once?

[Loftwing]

Like, look cyrus:

There are 6 players alive.
I was tied to Bingle and STD
Dweelee was tied to cyrus
You were tied to Dweelee
Bingle and STD both used an ability to confirm that they were indeed roleblocked.

Mama Ru would have been the only player capable of even attempting a kill, which would have made it obvious to be her had she done so.
Since you didn't block Dweelee, Dweelee could've made a kill last night (assuming they are groupscum), which would have also framed Mama Ru.

Who exactly would have killed you here? You are essentially deadweight every other night.

[Loftwing]

A combination of hubris and Cyrus actively working against a solve for so long. Also, Cyrus being so sure about the existence of cult D1 sounded informed to me.

Are you suggesting that Cyrus is Serial Killer specifically?

[Loftwing]

You are also dead weight, Cyrus. Unable to starve off a 1v1 against any scum player, you would die on an odd night.

[Loftwing]

Why myght that be, Dwee?

[Loftwing]

Psychick

[Loftwing]

You did not

[Loftwing]

Slave the Dragons

[Loftwing]

Loft should block Ru, she’s not a cop anymore with the mod error in play.

VOTE: std

Why isn't she a cop anymore?

[Loftwing]

Please don't vote yet. I still have a few questions that need answered. Hammering after this post should be considered a scum claim.

[Loftwing]

If Ru gets a result, that could either mean I attacked, or Dweelee blocked me.

[Loftwing]

Yay, we won!