Open 840 - Guardians of the Fortress [Game Over]

[VP Baltar]

Also when are the other reads coming?

As soon as I find the time.

Ball Park? This game has a pretty short deadline.

[VP Baltar]

Also when are the other reads coming?

As soon as I find the time.

Ball Park? This game has a pretty short deadline.

Approximately, sometime before New Year's Eve.

Thanks.

[VP Baltar]

Pointless spec

A good summary of your entire scum game.

[VP Baltar]

Or more, calling Pav scum just feels too arrogant

Arrogant? Not sure what you mean.

[VP Baltar]

I guess he can be somewhat charming in a way if he's not being a dick to you

You're a pooky alt right? Only pooky gets this tilted over me saying absolutely normal shit lol

[VP Baltar]

ofc not I would probably never re-evaluate if I was a Pooky alt.

Haha fair point

[VP Baltar]

VP why do you think Imagi wants to resolve Keep first?

Because he is scum and I may be right somewhere else in my team guess. I have given a much clearer set of reads than him.

If we flip keep first and I'm wrong on you, he can be like "see, vp trying to get a misyeet".

I also think keep is a very consensus first flip given the percentages, so it is a safe choice.

[VP Baltar]

I think RH9 slipped in the above series of posts. He didn't realise he was implying implo is town.

If so, that would mean RH6 is scum, implo is town and Luke is town

Giving me added confidence about the above: this also fits with my theory in 791 that RH6 was more likely than numberQ to be scum if VP is expecting Gate to flip first. We've seen him push hard for that more than once today.

What are you even talking about. Toog/RH9 was in my scum team call twice with you.

[VP Baltar]

VP why do you think Imagi wants to resolve Keep first?

Because he is scum and I may be right somewhere else in my team guess. I have given a much clearer set of reads than him.

If we flip keep first and I'm wrong on you, he can be like "see, vp trying to get a misyeet".

I also think keep is a very consensus first flip given the percentages, so it is a safe choice.

did you even read what he said about the keep resolution?

I'm barely reading what he posts.

[VP Baltar]

There's zero point in me reading a bunch of scum BS.

[VP Baltar]

VP is trying to steamroller over me today.

Now we are on to AtE. Which step of grieving is that?

Seriously though, your theorizing is consistently incoherent and reaching for any desperate angle to call me scum. You've stated I've done so many things that are galaxy brain moves, it makes no sense. Why would I spend my time reading and responding to such nonsense when I know it is all fake?

[VP Baltar]

Think I realized who Ari is. I'll reread tomorrow with that in mind.

[VP Baltar]

What I basically mean to respond to both of these is that if Pav is scum then our Collective Reads tm on d1 were just really good. And (a) like I had mentioned on d1 I want to be flexible now and (2) no one was really complaining about the plans that we came up with on d1; they were universally accepted with no fuss at all. It just feels kind of ehhh to accept that that was the case if it was 0 scum at keep initially.

Ok, that makes sense

[VP Baltar]

Tanner's been leaning to voting me to varying degrees most of this game.

Scum psychology alert.

[VP Baltar]

Ari's hard shift on imaginality is interesting. While I agree with her points to some degree, I'm mildly paranoid about it.

Anyhow, I still say flip imaginality red and then we will have better perspective on the keep. We only need to pick the safest route there to win.

I am rescinding my previous instinct toward Luke for now. Need to consider why scum imaginality would want to put voting power with town!Ari. That would heavily imply a scum!Luke.

[VP Baltar]

It kind of sucks that I'm going to be like Obi-wan Kenobi here and fade into the mist after Tanner hammers.

Tanner, any players you want to discuss before I'm gone?

[VP Baltar]

consider why he wants me to be flipped prior to gate resolution

For sure, I'm considering that. See rescinded read above around Luke.

Why were you so absolutely certain I was scum before that you were carrying water for imaginality?

Why was his desire to flip the keep, a fairly mainstream position, such a revelation for you?

[VP Baltar]

Tanner, any players you want to discuss before I'm gone?

why have you suddenly gotten this idea in your head that i'm resolving the gate first?

It's not suddenly.

.
.
.
.


It is your destiny.

[VP Baltar]

I need to go back to my notes and see if I had imaginality-Luke-RH9 as one of my possible configurations

[VP Baltar]

why do you now want to flip imaginality

what is going on

I want out basically. Like, do I really want to spend another 40 pages arguing with a scum I think I've pretty effectively lit up? No, that just gives him an opportunity to weasel his way out of it.

You're the controller here of course, but if you feel good about imaginality flipping red, why not take that now and ease pressure to get the other games right? Let's say the keep flips wrong. Suddenly you have a lot more pressure to do the Gate right. Are you going to get paranoid under that pressure? Is imaginality going to post 40 walls I'm not going to respond to point by point?

A bird in hand, something something....

[VP Baltar]

I am having a kinda crappy morning atm, but I am here!

Sorry to hear that. The weekend is almost here at least.

[VP Baltar]

I want out basically.

me too. but i don't have that luxury >_>

Yeah, I figure you weren't going to find that very compelling.

I told scum already they fucked up ICing the person who gets NKed 99% of the time on N1 in all my games.

Look, if you want me to stick around I will, but I think my points for resolving gate first are valid.

[VP Baltar]

On the flip side tho, I feel like Ari has left me feeling like she is never partnered with imaginality here.

Can I get details on why you think this?

[VP Baltar]

We should resolve a game today for deadline reasons. Tanner, make the call which game.

[VP Baltar]

Getting me out of the game is a con because I'm a fucking joy to be around

[VP Baltar]

i'm gonna go grab some fucking alcohol again i hate this game

baltar, opinion on rh9?

Still in my scum team at first blush.

I still stand by my early game implosion read unless someone is going to make a compelling case.

NQ is a blackhole of boredom for me, so he could be scum.

I do want to closely read RH9's reads post today. I only read his section on me last night, and it felt like he was townbinning me for the wrong reasons. I'm back at work today, but I'll update when I have time.

[VP Baltar]

Baltar, what do you feel about implosion-Lukewarm and implosion-Aristeia interactions?

I could see someone making the case for an implo-luke-imaginality team. Not sure I'd believe it, but I could see it.

Implo has been staunchly advocating for imaginality-scum, so I really don't see him being scum with Ari. This heavily points to implo-town if Ari did end up being red as well.

[VP Baltar]

explain the connection to me?

When imaginality flips red, I don't think that makes Ari look better if she is still unflappable then. So it'd be like scum!implo bussing two buddies. While that's a cool cat move, it would mean he is losing the game.

[VP Baltar]

If she is still unflipped

[VP Baltar]

damn, and here i was about to hammer imaginality. i guess the hammer will have to wait after all ))):

Don't troll me just bc you living that mad IC life.

Do it you coward!

[VP Baltar]

what happened with wanting to read rh9's post? (:

Drinking a red bull and going to do it right now

[VP Baltar]

what happened with wanting to read rh9's post? (:

Drinking a red bull and going to do it right now

[VP Baltar]

what happened with wanting to read rh9's post? (:

Drinking a red bull and going to do it right now

FYI, after realising that I had a confbias while writing it, Lukewarm is now Null and Pavowski is now a townlean.

I'll take that into account. Thanks

[VP Baltar]

lol, dawg, you can't have everyone as town or null and tell me to take that serious.

Any other read updates I should know about?

[VP Baltar]

I appreciate the fancy table though.

[VP Baltar]

79, 84, 178 could come from both scum and Town for similar reasons on why numberQ's advice in 288 is NAI. I agree with 129, especially the last sentence. 131 confuses me. I agree with 591, in that scum likely moved implosion because he was getting TRed a lot and scum moved him in order to let themselves win. This points to scum!Lukewarm because he was notably desperate in winning as seen in 125. I agree with 593. 594 feels like Town because he is trying to sort the people that are in his minigame. I think that it is a bit odd that implosion doesn't feel like Lukewarm is scum, though. 674 is so true. I vehemently disagree with 901 for making Lukewarm look like he has almost completely no chance of being scum. 904 is annoying me to pieces because why do you not consider that Lukewarm is scum who has Aristeia pocketed? 908 is so true, though. If I was scum, I would definitely considering bussing. Most of posts afterwards seems to be a meaningless argument with Aristeia. 1203 is a decent comeback.

I don't know how this analysis of implosion gets a "null" read when most of it is positive except implosion's assessment of Luke. Like, the words here seem like you're either assessing implo as town, or saying he is scum buddies with Luke...but there is no decision made at the end of it.

[VP Baltar]

numberQ 288 can be made from a Town trying to give advice or scum hiding a warning as Galron once did here in Mini 2250. I agree with 335, though this is NAI because scum can be agreeable too. I agree with his opinion of my predecessor in 530. However, I disagree with 531. I don't think that Pavowski is scum. However, the clarification in 551 makes me feel better. 687 seems like a good question but both Town and scum have the motivation to ask that.

Clicking through to these posts, I have a hard time seeing how much of this is AI...but that also seems to be the nature of NQ's mech talk. Null seems like a fair read here, but if I was in the game with NQ, I'd probably be trying harder to find his actual alignment.

[VP Baltar]

195 seems odd as though he's trying to please people and it feels fake. However, I have done that as Town before, making it NAI. 260 could be a clarification of a genuine mistake or a deliberate one intended as a reaction test. This is NAI. I find that for similar reasons on why numberQ's and implosion's advice is NAI, it applies to imaginality's 283 too. Most other posts seem NAI too. 691, 971, and 1248 feels like single-minded attack on VP Baltar. 1230 feels like he somehow changed his mind and

thus he realises that he's looking like we are scum together.

Haha wait what with the bolded?

RH9, can you explain whatever you're saying there?

[VP Baltar]

^that's imaginality

[VP Baltar]

Lukewarm 1032 felt off to me due to his astounding confidence on his reads. Seeing that implosion got moved and how much Lukewarm exhibited a desire to win in 125, it is obvious that Lukewarm is scum. He seems strangely into meta and theory. Examples of this include 29, 32, 34, 78, 101, 324, 484, 554 and 896.

I agree with implosion's questioning of the language around calling Luke scum here. That post does not seem astoundingly confident to me at all. I don't follow how the switch means Luke is definitely scum either. I think this was discussed.

Obv Luke has been downgraded in RH's scum rankings at this point, but this read seems to not add up.

[VP Baltar]

Pavowski As previously noted in 1086, 1060 feels like Pavowski is trying to do something which is something that I don't think that scum would do. This is because volunteering himself for a vote would appear LAMIST. I agree with a couple of his posts. Examples include 463, 467, 611, 614. Why is Pavowski the only one to get it?Why did my predecessor think so highly of Lukewarm? I agree with 50 149, and 150 from DArby. There is no way that Pavowski is scum.

This is a weird one, mostly because the reasoning used to arrive at Pav as a strongest townread in the game feels a bit flimsy to me? Again, this has been downgraded, but I'm just thinking about the initial thought process.

This is also the second time in this reads list where RH9 has talked about his "predecessor." That's something I never really do as town? But I'm not sold on this being Amished tell territory either.

I think regardless of alignment, RH9 has a very different approach to the game than me.

[VP Baltar]

Aristeia I like a lot of her posts. Examples include 100, 102 and 107. 108 makes me want to scream at my predecessor for placing Lukewarm on a pedestal instead of noticing the wisdom of Aristeia. 110 is so correct. 153 is a good idea. 290 is so sweet. 488. makes sense. 920 is so true. Anybody who disagrees is scum. 922 almost makes me think that I'm wrong on Lukewarm. Also, Aristeia, you remind me of marcistar and Morning Tweet.

More predecessor talk. More giving town reads for things that are NAI or questionable. For example, the 920 does not strike me as "so true." I could see that one either way, and I don't think implosion was wrong for saying that Ari is making promises that mean nothing until an action actually happens.

[VP Baltar]

VP Baltar Seems to ask questions a couple of times. Examples include 9, 147, 151, 161, 180, 186, 207, 221 and 387. 205 feels defensive. I don't get 217 and 395. I agree with 771. I like response to imaginality in 856. Scumreads in 859 makes sense. 864 shows good solving intent. 918 seems like he is wanting answers. 975 seems like he's gone and actually done research. Interactions with Aristeia, which include 979 and 981, feels like he is trying to work with her. 1209 seems like Town wanting to know things. I feel like 1243 and 1244 makes sense.

This still feels to me like maybe townreading me for the wrong reasons. Asking questions is NAI. Saying my scumreads make sense when your slot is in said scum reads and one of my others is Aristeia...who just got a glowing review and town read from RH9. It's all a bit jumbled and hard to understand the mindset, even when the read comes out correct on the other end.

[VP Baltar]

My overall assessment of RH9's reads are off the charts scummy...but almost so far it makes me wonder if he's town?

RH9, or anyone else who has played with RH9, I'd like to see a game or two you've completed as scum.

[VP Baltar]

RH9, why do you make so many remarks about how Toog appeared or acted in the thread before you got here?

[VP Baltar]

Luke, why do you think imaginality wanted to give Ari the voting power in your game?

[VP Baltar]

My overall assessment of RH9's reads are off the charts scummy...but almost so far it makes me wonder if he's town?

RH9, or anyone else who has played with RH9, I'd like to see a game or two you've completed as scum.

I have played in Micro 1036, where I only won because GrandpaMo misread the setup and started a wagon on fellow Town.

lol, you have three posts. is this your only scum game?

[VP Baltar]

ah right. my bad. Thought there was a post where he wanted ari to do it, but he was saying Pav there as well. Scratch that.

[VP Baltar]

My overall assessment of RH9's reads are off the charts scummy...but almost so far it makes me wonder if he's town?

RH9, or anyone else who has played with RH9, I'd like to see a game or two you've completed as scum.

I have played in Micro 1036, where I only won because GrandpaMo misread the setup and started a wagon on fellow Town.

lol, you have three posts. is this your only scum game?

Yes. Because there was a global post restriction which was that I could only post one time a day unless the first post I posted in that phase did not contain a vote, which I may place in a second post.

But I've been scum off-site on mafiagg and EM.

How many times would you say you've been scum?

[VP Baltar]

luke having a migraine and me being drunk and tired, i bet this conversation looks very fun to an outsider

hammer you coward

[VP Baltar]

are you *trying* to give me a stomach ulcer, because it's working

I do get a hefty monthly stipend from Big Pharma.

[VP Baltar]

I kind of love that RH9's wiki page contains extensive menu diving to look at his games list. haha

[VP Baltar]

Ari's play around imaginality is game throwing if they are partners, and I don't think Ari throws games

Like, my only issue with this is that the Ari-imaginality connection wasn't a thing until I put on my tinfoil hat and called it out. I think that kind of invalidates her entire "I would never do that" thing.

Not saying it's slam dunk she is scum, but I don't think it is clearing either.

[VP Baltar]

you see, if only i could confidently say "both luke and pav are town" then i would have SOME peace of mind that i am not going to be seduced into a loss here but where is pav??? i have higher expectations of town!pav

which may be unfair because if the dude is town he replaced into a very poopy slot but like

Why do you think Luke is scum?

[VP Baltar]

Like, put Ari aside, you only need to decide who you find scummier between Luke and Pav.

[VP Baltar]

mmm, vp, you mentioned notes? what kinda notes are you keeping?

I only took notes when I was catching up because I was very tuned out on vacation. I'm relatively up to date, but I do be skimming sometimes when people are posting boring stuff.

[VP Baltar]

and pav is like, i have a pet town!pav theory that i cannot justify with anything other than my gut so

My wild Pav theory is that he is town because he felt so bad I called him out that night I got back. He apologized three times when he really didn't need to.

So who is the crazy one here.

[VP Baltar]

do you make notes in a similar fashion when you're scum?

Probably not in a similar fashion, no. I'd most likely just shit up the PT and reference it later. As town, I don't always keep notes either. I will often jot some things down when doing long catch ups because I need to keep things straight or have stuff to reference back to without ultra spamming the thread. But often that's just in a document I don't save when I'm finished.


I think my notes for this game are still open on my other computer though.

[VP Baltar]

Tanner frantically ctrl+fing my scum games rn for the word "notes" to pull out an aha for some shit I don't remember saying because he is too afraid to power hammer imaginality.

[VP Baltar]

because it's like, (1) i remember you once mentioning how you were taking notes when catching up in jungle oligarchy and (2) some details like that are something that almost never occurs to me to fake as scum so i'm like if *that* is a galaxy brain pocket then bruh

Jungle Oligarchy is a good example of a game where I would definitely do notes because I replaced in and was catching up.

Good call out though on a towntell I need to obscure if I ever draw scum again. I hadn't thought about that.

[VP Baltar]

What's your read of Luke right now Pav?

[VP Baltar]

second of all what in the everloving fuck is this:
viewtopic.php?p=11943578#p11943578
viewtopic.php?p=11956698#p11956698
viewtopic.php?p=11956705#p11956705
viewtopic.php?p=11956721#p11956721

like, the amount of "MY NOTES" is actually agh

that my friend is what we call a shit show. The entire scum team was just shitting it up all game. Then we died immediately.

[VP Baltar]

all the VP town reads after Tanner indicated imaginality is going to die mean nothing, sadly. My green flip has been ordained in the stars.

[VP Baltar]

another thing that i am thinking of is that i remmeber baltar being like "but yo like i fucking wish i rolled scum against you bc i wanna be a petty asshole and trick you" and like what if that's why he decided to go to the same location as me? am i just paying for my sins now???

haha, this would actually be epic.

[VP Baltar]

tanner if you actually can't trust me just tell me and I will vote for who I think is town

if that person is mafia you can blame it on me for having shitty reads

Do it. Tanner is a coward and I want to see a flip today. This game is getting boring and we need some excitement up in here.

[VP Baltar]

Luke knows I tend to ping people scummy as a baseline

Didn't you get slotted before you replaced in? What is this line supposed to mean?

[VP Baltar]

you have called me a coward like 5 times today

not saying i don't deserve it, but like, do you have to >_>

I believe you can rise above this by taking action, either tell Ari who to vote or hammer imaginality. This game needs to move forward.

The reason I keep telling you to hammer imaginality is that you will feel good when he flips red. I'm actually trying to relieve your anxiety by telling you to trust yourself.

<<Obi-wan fades into mist>>

[VP Baltar]

I was then swapped to the Keep as D2 began

oh right the swap.

[VP Baltar]

This is like watching pay per view with all three of you here live to fight it out! Let's goooooooo.

[VP Baltar]

Tanner gave his thoughts. He can't vote for y'all. It's scummy to put it all on Tanner. Someone must act and live with the consequences.

[VP Baltar]

I so bad want to provide commentary haha.

[VP Baltar]

aw shit. Let's go flip town!

[VP Baltar]

someone is trolling me, i hate all of you

I tried to make your life super easy

[VP Baltar]

I don't bullshit post hammer, I was toooooown

Tanner metaing this instead of sleeping.

[VP Baltar]

baltar, how the fuck are you so chill right now, what the f

I think Pav is bullshitting.

[VP Baltar]

baltar, how the fuck are you so chill right now, what the f

we're laughing at you in the scum pt together

Ugh, man if this is true, my reads were 100%.

[VP Baltar]

Nah, I was right that it is imaginality-Ari-RH9.

We still win this.

[VP Baltar]

fuck you ari for calling me dumb when you know I big brained your whole fucking scum team.

[VP Baltar]

time to reread the whole fucking game tomorrow i gUESS

Hammer imaginality please. I will legit be mad if that scumbag is not killed.

[VP Baltar]

Okay. Hear me out. I think that Ari is actually trolling on being scum. 1567 and 1569 give those vibes. Maybe we are okay?

I want to vomit

Nah, Ari is legit here clearly.

Should have listened to me.

[VP Baltar]

I wonder if VPB is scum here who is trying to give off the impression he doesn't know I flip town

If I knew the flips, I wouldn't be having so much fun.

[VP Baltar]

I enjoy this game. Right?

it me

[VP Baltar]

luke scum voting Ari is the ultimate troll

[VP Baltar]

Lmao amazing

[VP Baltar]

luke scum voting Ari is the ultimate troll

[quote="In post 1472, The entire scum team was just shitting it up all game. Then we died immediately.

VP pre-cogging

[VP Baltar]

ofc we can flip wall for the info in keep first if you want to know for sure that it was in fact 1-1-1 pre-swap.

Implosion, you scum bro?

[VP Baltar]

Hammer imaginality before he gets back

[VP Baltar]

But why would Luke vote Ari like that? I can understand why he'd declare intent to, but the 'Pav will vote me in time' theory when Ari was online and clearly ready to vote immediately doesn't stack up.

Keep it to the scum PT.

[VP Baltar]

To be quite frank I don't really have a good idea why scum picked the swap they did now

Luke just gave the town a free game. I mean....

[VP Baltar]

That's pooky 100% of the time regardless of alignment.

[VP Baltar]

Pretty obv I was reconsidering my ari scum read recently a bit. Plus I am not the type of person to stress about things outside my control

[VP Baltar]

Imaginality, you sneaky sneak, trying to paranoia Tanner while I sleep.

[VP Baltar]

Implo was talking about literal first movers and I was talking about early voters in general. The fact ari said that doesn't make her +town and it's silly you'd make that assumption.

I am not sure what you are saying here?

Spoiler: The posts I'm talking about

I kind of agree with Aris that first movers probably have +scum

due to the simple fact scum have more direct incentive to move first.

My point is there is more likely to be a scum among the first movers due to the desire to prevent a lockout.

I agree first first mover is probably slightly +town.

Of course, now that we have talked about it, it feels like it all means nothing, so...

From my pov it just looks like you called me +scum in 120 and then turned around and called me +town in 138 for the exact same action, both times being agreeable with who ever made the original argument.

Are you saying that you were calling ari +scum in 120? if so, why lead it with "I agree with ari"

This should have been a red flag for me. Of course scum is so paranoid of being called scum they'd interpret a harmless post from me talking about theory as an affront to them.

[VP Baltar]

Lukewarm
- the vote explanation feels genuine to me
- my sense is he wouldn't want to be the centre of attention as scum in the way casting the first vote made him

So if I had to guess, imaginality probably didn't town read both of his scum buddies in this post. That means...(next post)

[VP Baltar]

numberQ
- only two posts, so not much to go on
-but I find this switch jarring, from #42"I was really hoping we'd talk about assignments more" to #64 "I'm fine not picking where I go. I have no real preference for which location I'm in."

NQ is most likely our third scum. He's the only person from the last game listed among imaginality's scum reads in that initial post.

Maybe after I get some coffee this morning, I'll look at Luke/NQ interactions for funsies before Tanner hammers.

[VP Baltar]

Speedy speedy

[VP Baltar]

Maybe you already answered this, my bad if so. But who would you be comfortable voting in that 3rd slot?

Implo is probably my top choice atm

Luke advocating for implo at the third keep spot....only to have him switched out over night. So weird.

[VP Baltar]

Gate

Tanner

His plan for the keep does nothing for me reading it back, because that plan wins it for town tanner and for scum tanner, so he could very much want that plan either way.

21 feels

off

to me. like the "I want you to be town, bit it's obviously too early to tell" feels... idk if performative is the right word, maybe forced?

I also don't like his interaction with Ari 72 and 74 72 feels like a lot of words to say nothing, but then to drop his town lean on Ari for some reason.

I am strugling to see the town motivation behind

why would your read of me even matter if I am going to be voting for you?

those are words that aren't yet actions, and i'm still not sure if i will be calling that bluff.

His response here does not make sense to me. Her "bluff" is that she is going to vote for him, which if she is telling the truth wins the game for him regardless of his alignment. If she is "bluffing" what is the concern for town Tanner? IF she is scum bluffing, then she you give her voting power, and town tanner wins. IF she is town bluffing, then she is giving voting power, and tanner is in a 1v1 with the other person in the keep - which is where he later says that he wants to be, the person in the 1v1, not the person making the vote

depends on whether i'm the person 1v1'ing or if i'm the person deciding the vote. if i'm the one 1v1'ing, i've never lost. if i'm deciding, i've never decided correctly. which is why i wanted to go to keep and why i want to avoid the gate at all costs. and why i'll probably end up there.

So this worry about "calling her bluff" feels more like scum tanner, worried that if he acceprts her offer, she will scum read him for it and then vote the other person.

-Also, all the things I brought up day one about his game choice
-Also, also, his attempt to force the implo, baltar, imafin game felt contrived
-Also, also, also - him jumping to the gate, after I said that I did not think that town tanner would want the all bothers me.

Maybe I just conf biased myself, but looking back over his iso, I'm pretty sure he is scum.


imaginality

His 87 entrance is a mixed bag for me.

I like his question for toog. Like his response to me, and I like that he is advocating for us to not give up on implo's plan just because me and ari were locked in at that point.

But on the other hand, His response to numberQ felt forced, like he was looking for something to comment on. Not a fan of "any early reads" question at the top of page 2. I also don't like that he has an idea for how to sort the game, his nomination method, that he mentions but never brings it up again.


I like 159

Like the mech points in 172 about game resolution

Really don't liek 193. Combo of the shade at Ari and the linking up with Toog, both give me hives.

His back and forth with Tanner over the mix up, was... weird. But, I don't think that it happens with tanner/imaginality if they are s/s.

His Ari and Tanner S/S idea is also... weird. Not sure if it is scummy, but definitly weird.

283 is the best post of the game lol

I like 209

First person I fell like I have a less then definitive read on. Like, in a vacuum, I think I would lean scum here, slightly? But I also see a lot of interactions with Tanner that I dont think come from s/s, so that is helping him some from my pov.

So, null I guess?


Baltar

Baltar has some weird interactions with Tanner, where he first says he doesn't care where he goes, but then makes multiple posts about being in the same game with Tanner. Not really sure how to feel about that. Definitly worse if Tanner is town (one way to gurantee that the day 1 auto loss never happens is to get any townie to agree to go to the same place as you)

Huh, just saw in Baltar's iso that he asked implo about the scum chat before he posted it - did not realize when I was isoing implo since he did not post it as a response to baltar's question. That kinda undoes that little worry about implo pointing it out for us to see that he was being genuine.

Don't like

I kind of agree with Aris that first movers probably have +scum due to the simple fact scum have more direct incentive to move first.

In post 135, implosion wrote:
(and also... keep in mind that in that game scum moved 2nd yes, but the rest of the first 5 people to move were town)

My point is there is more likely to be a scum among the first movers due to the desire to prevent a lockout.

I agree first first mover is probably slightly +town.

Ari was actively trying to say I was scum for voting first, and he agreed with Ari (at the time only me and ari had voted in, so I doubt he thought ari was calling herself scum) - But immediately 180'ed to say that my vote was +town once he got push back on it. Which feels like one or both of those those thoughts were not genuine, and it does not feel like he was actually trying to sort me because he was not applying these thoughts to me, the actual first voter, he seemed to be talking about it in the abstract. Do not like.

His sudden strong town read on imaginality feels like it was pulled out of a hat.

257 does not make sense to me - I asked him about it (286), but he never responded :/

I feel like most of his iso leaves me feeling empty, little thoughts about him one way or another.

I want to say scum here. The early stuff with tanner would be weird for partners tho? Maybe distancing, but then they really did end up at the same place... hmm.

[/u]Reread verdict if there is no swap[/u]
I think it is Tanner. I don't feel great about either of the others, but I think it is just Tanner here.

But if either of the others swap out, then they are people I would give a second look over

Then we have this piece of scum theater.

Fake Tanner scum read that he uses to base all his other reads on.

Big surprise the read on imaginality read is a pile gray, formless porridge, while he shades me to he'll without having the guts to call me scum definitively.

[VP Baltar]

If I had any advice for the scum team this game, it is don't do giant reads lists people can refer back to after your flip is known.

[VP Baltar]

[/u]Reread verdict if there is no swap[/u]
Of these three, I think that DArby and numberQ end up cross voting and Toog decides.

I don't know how one even decides here tho...

Need to THONK if Luke would just open wolf on the least clear game and try to get his buddy deciding power though.

[VP Baltar]

I so bad want to provide commentary haha.

why didn't you provide commentary and what did you want to say?

I was going to say at that point that Luke and Pav should cross vote with ari deciding, but that actually would have been pointless because Luke could have self hammered.

I don't think we took into account how fucking crazy the voting in the Keep is.

The reason I didn't say anything at that point is because I didn't want to influence the outcome of the game, or give someone an excuse if something shady went down. I figured town gets the most information when the action plays out purely with the players involved at that point.

[VP Baltar]

I don't think we took into account how fucking crazy the voting in the Keep is.

Seeing it play out, keep actually almost requires the two town to read each other correctly to win. That or scum voting town for some reason.

On paper it seems like the odds are 67%, but in reality they are much lower.

[VP Baltar]

btw who are we liking for the 3 scummiest thrown into Gate?

I think rn my too early list is:

1. numberQ
4. imaginality
6. Toogeloo

Do you have reasons for these, outside of post count? I have had no thoughts on either numberQ or imaginality, which is kind of a bad sign, but Toog I like Toog

This is actually a very interesting post combined with my read of imaginality's list. Scum luke is coming in to try and subtly flag off Ari's idea of putting scum imaginality with scum!NQ together if I'm right.

[VP Baltar]

but Toog I like Toog

can you spell this out for me?

also, i'm probably getting tunnelled, but i think i unironically want imaginality and baltar at the same location. these interactions bug me.

I liked his entry about being willing to float where ever for the games, when I would expect scum to be wanting to have some control over it. I also noticed that he did not lock into the keep, even through I kinda invited him to twice. And atm I am leaning town on Ari, so I would expect a scum player to be almost looking for a reason to take that last slot in the keep, and he just ignored me - both times lol. That would have been pretty good cover for him too I think, he already said he didn't care where he went, so he could just say he was following my suggestion. So unless I am just wrong on Ari, that is a pretty good +town for Toog imo.

I have also seen Toog get scum read for lower content, but I think that is just how he plays, so I was hoping Ari would tell me if they had suspicion for anything more then that.

Also, like, is this a post you'd make about your scumbuddy? Or rather, would you flat out invite your scumbuddy to the same game as you twice so they have to say no?

These seem like negative associatives with the RH9/toog slot.

[VP Baltar]

We don't have to get scum here, we just have to find town. This is easy and makes me think even more that Luke is scum, because I know he thinks (knows) he can look townier than me.

?

If you think Luke is scum why wouldn't you just vote for me?

Imaginality, what was the purpose of this question?

I feel like the answer was fairly clear given Ari's stances - They should never want themselves to get vote power, that is anti win con, and then they said that they thought I was town.

I guess, my point more is, why are you asking Ari this instead of talking about who

You

think should have the vote power?

This is classic scum softball theater.

What is the purpose of this question! Look how hard I'm being on you without actually being hard on you!

[VP Baltar]

Why did you shift from your 2-1-0 view to your 1-1-1 view?

My original assumption was it was all town at your location. The fact that no one shifted from there LEDs me to the more likely scenario of 1/1/1

you thought all three of imaginality, baltar, and tanner were town?

This also seems like an unlikely post if this is the team. What is the likelihood that scumLuke sees scumImaginality questioning scum!Toog and decides to jump in on it rather than let scumImaginality do his thing?

Again, feels like a negative associative for RH9 here.

[VP Baltar]

This is classic scum softball theater.

If you compare how Luke questions imaginality throughout the game to how he is questioning me (example, busting my chops over trying to claim town cred for proposing the sort), I think it is blatantly obvious who Luke is buddies with. There's no pressing on imaginality to try and expose contradictions or trip him up.

[VP Baltar]

Ok, I'm going to step back now.

It'd be cool if implo/RH9/numberQ had some thoughts on what the Luke flip means for their game.

[VP Baltar]

Is this whole VP-is-better-than-imag-at-1v1s thing like, public knowledge that I just didn't know or what.

I have no idea why Ari thinks this. I'm definitely not the type of player to ever quit a game, even if my odds of winning don't look good. So maybe that's what she means. I've never 1v1'ed imaginality, so I don't think there is any actual evidence I'm "better" than him at it.

[VP Baltar]

baltar, do you have an opinion on why luke decided to brute force the keep to flip first

A complete guess would be that he was trying to vote/unvote fast and lost on the draw? IDK, that's the only thing I could think of last night. It seemed rather silly. If I was scum in his situation, I would have just been patient. It seemed like Ari was going to pick him over Pav eventually. Maybe he just felt pressure to move because I was kind of hyping them to hurry up and do something? Definitely seemed like a mistake from my perspective.

[VP Baltar]

I was going to say at that point that Luke and Pav should cross vote with ari deciding, but that actually would have been pointless because Luke could have self hammered.

i still find it kinda wild that apparently, even after being in day 2 for like... 5? days? you still thought there's gonna be a cross-vote rather than someone self-hammering as soon as they get the chance.

like, i can't even say that this is ai, but like.

The amount of thought I put into the other games is very small. Ultimately, I don't have control over those. All I have to do to fulfill my win condition is show my towniness to you.

This isn't really the type of game I would have joined on my own because I don't care for mech heavy games too much, but you're here and so are other fun people.

[VP Baltar]

Just hammer and this game is over. You stress yourself out so much

[VP Baltar]

why does imaginality ic me when i said i'm scumreading him and townreading you? like i realize i fucked up massively on d1 by actually talking about it but why does he do that?

My pet theory is the scum were boned by the player slottings. Implo is probably town and needed to be swapped with someone Luke stood a better chance against, so they couldn't switch at the gate. Our game had you leaning more town on me, and me saying I can definitely town read you. The IC choice would be a gamble either way. You're a more thorough player than me, but also much more paranoid. There's maybe some wiggle room there you make the wrong call through overthinking it. If I'm IC, there's a good chance I just get stubborn with a townread on you and refuse to change it.

[VP Baltar]

jfc. I'm like 30 pages behind. I see there was a flip so today I'm going to try and at least look at associations before my NYE plans this evening. Sorry for the total lack of engagement on my end, just didn't expect this week to be so difficult for me to play in a fast paced game like this.

If Luke is scum at the Keep, _____ is scum at the Wall.

Only question you need to answer.

[VP Baltar]

Tanner, you've presented many plausible reasons why I am town and very few (as far as I can tell), reasons why imaginality is town. I understand that one time two years ago I had an OK scum game against you when you had zero knowledge of my play, but damn -- I didn't know I twisted you up like that lol.

[VP Baltar]

Well I consider that an honor.

As far as the IC thing, I probably would have lied as scum when you asked me if I would have ICed you.

[VP Baltar]

I know this means nothing right now, but if I was scum in the game, I actually would feel bad for snowing you like this. Like if I actually faked a bunch of things about not knowing the setup, that's some devious shit. Not saying I wouldn't do it if I thought of it, but odds are high that I would not think of that.

The reason I was trying to get you to hammer this game first is that I know your reads are right, this is an easy call, and it would take all the pressure off you. You're so stressed about this call it is making me stressed!

[VP Baltar]

ain't snowing me if i hammer you!

This would actually ruin your 2022 because you know I'm not scum here.

[VP Baltar]

you're gonna have that game memorized before I draw scum again.

[VP Baltar]

This game is our chance at Jungle Oligarchy redemption when we kicked scum ass and didn't get the trophy.

I know I'm totally AtE'ing here, but I want a damn win with you! Feel like I lose so many games that are just in my grasp to win and this is an easy one. Going to the Wall is a crapshoot because those dudes aren't even playing the game. Hammer for glory for me please!

[VP Baltar]

how should i feel about the fact that you said scum!you here would go with imaginality and a yeetbait, ic imaginality and kill the yeetbait, considering your first choice was an imaginality/you/darby gate?

pedit: would you seriously stoop to SUCH ate if you were scum here? i know you gotta say yes but like goddamn

That was my first choice...but it was also my idea to take you with me from the start and combining those two ideas was a smart town move on my part without knowing what imaginality's alignment was going to be.

as for your second question, I actually don't think I would AtE like that as scum. I mean, saying that means nothing, but it's a bit manipulative if it's a lie and feels slightly over a line to me unless I had a serious rivalry with a player.

[VP Baltar]

If I AtE'd like that as a lie, that could be hurtful, and I don't play mafia to hurt people's feelings.

[VP Baltar]

haha, IDK. it really depends on the player, but if I have a long and positive history with someone in games, I try to play pretty honorably as scum. Doesn't necessarily help my win rate, but I never have to feel bad after a game.

Some people are fine going hard, like Pooky, and that's fun too because I know he's not going to have his feelings hurt if we go to absolute warfare. Of course, that's often more spam screaming than dirty tricks, so....

[VP Baltar]

i started rereading a game where you were town in yelo and for a second i was like "aha, here he's doing vca, and in my game he hasn't analyzed a single fuckin vote count" before i remembered

got me there!

[VP Baltar]

I feel like you aren't giving credit to how difficult Gate really is here.

I get it, I really do. It's not fun to make the decision that everything is resting on.

That being said, what is the case for town imaginality? It requires a hell of a lot of tinfoil. That's what I'm saying is simple here. You have to believe I pulled a crazy amount of shit off this game to believe I'm scum.

Additionally, with Luke fucking up for the scum team, the stakes of this hammer are much lower. This isn't game 3/3 right now. I just really want a win and then I'm gonna go play some fortnite and chill into the new year.

[VP Baltar]

it's just that the two people crossvoting need to both self-vote instead of both voting for the other.

ah, true.

[VP Baltar]

i mean, i am kind of treating it as game 3/3 because i feel like wall is going to be rng-roulette

I'm more convinced it is not RH9 now after looking at Luke's ISO. Implosion is being kind of weird saying Wall should go first and just now playing up the dilemma here, but still probably town I guess. NQ is where my money would be at in that game.

[VP Baltar]

me being town is in principal very relevant information for reading Gate.

what does our town flip tell us about the gate?

[VP Baltar]

Alright. I guess I just feel like the gate is a much easier solve than the wall, all things considered. And that's not just me saying what I've been saying. It's just still a 50/50 at heart. I don't see a legit reason to do the wall first unless Tanner really is completely lost, which I don't think is the case.

[VP Baltar]

Alright. I guess I just feel like the gate is a much easier solve than the wall, all things considered.

it is, that's the problem

if i fuck it up, i will be The Person That Screwed Up The Easy Minigame and maybe even Cost Town The Game OuO

I mean, if you choose wrong, it's still not on you. It's on the town at the wall to...actually play the game.

I feel like you and I have done all we can do here to help.

[VP Baltar]

vp is a scumfuck

*pull up mechanics hat and wipes grease from hands on a rag*

Well, that's yer problem right there.

[VP Baltar]

I left and came back and still no hammer. Tanner, what can we do to get you into this new car today?

[VP Baltar]

I'll throw in the undercoating for free.

[VP Baltar]

sell me why this isn't your scumgame - without ate-y stuff

This isn't my scum game because:

A) I provided what I think was a very protown sort, which we now know forced scum Luke to, objectively, either face a tough game with a town implosion or force a suboptimal swap because there were two scum jammed together.

B) I have put myself out there on a limb this game with concrete read predictions that I can be held accountable for if I'm wrong. Ari is a good example of this. You can see I was suss of her off and on throughout the game, at times very certain I was right and at other times trying to engage and re-evaluate. This is basically true of my stance on all the players in the game except you and imaginality.

C) I honestly have fucked up understanding the mech of the game an embarrassing number of times. I would have more dignity as scum than to look like a complete dumbass so much.

D) you have apparently townpinged notably on a few things I never could have predicted would resonate with you.

E) Luke was legitimately coming after me several times and backing imaginality until you stated a town read of me clearly.

[VP Baltar]

There's probably more stuff, but I'm just rattling off the top of my head here.

[VP Baltar]

I wanted my flip to be first. I'm badgering you to an annoying level about voting. Both risky for a scum to do.

[VP Baltar]

This was my dream too

[VP Baltar]

Hammer imaginality, win at life for 2022

[VP Baltar]

vp while i'm arguing with rh9: nowhere to be seen

vp when i call him scum: there in less than two minutes

Just checking in between when I die at fortnite

[VP Baltar]

sell me why this isn't your scumgame - without ate-y stuff

This isn't my scum game because:

A) I provided what I think was a very protown sort, which we now know forced scum Luke to, objectively, either face a tough game with a town implosion or force a suboptimal swap because there were two scum jammed together.

B) I have put myself out there on a limb this game with concrete read predictions that I can be held accountable for if I'm wrong. Ari is a good example of this. You can see I was suss of her off and on throughout the game, at times very certain I was right and at other times trying to engage and re-evaluate. This is basically true of my stance on all the players in the game except you and imaginality.

C) I honestly have fucked up understanding the mech of the game an embarrassing number of times. I would have more dignity as scum than to look like a complete dumbass so much.

D) you have apparently townpinged notably on a few things I never could have predicted would resonate with you.

E) Luke was legitimately coming after me several times and backing imaginality until you stated a town read of me clearly.

Tanner, what is not convincing about this? What can I tell you that will reassure you and we can end this madness?

[VP Baltar]

Think of it this way, if I am duping you this badly, you would never trust me again. I wouldn't do that. Pls hammer imaginality. I won't be mad at you, but I'd be damn defeated if I put this much energy proving my townness and you save scumfuck imaginality

[VP Baltar]

I wouldn't do that.

yes you fucking would lmao i know you

Nah. I wouldn't work this hard as scum

[VP Baltar]

I wouldn't do that.

yes you fucking would lmao i know you

Nah. I wouldn't work this hard as scum

Well that's probably not true, but still...

[VP Baltar]

I wish I could convey how agonizing it is to be town in this situation and have no idea what else I can say. Like just racking my brain constantly with what else to say and I have no clue.

[VP Baltar]

It's not your fault. I understand the pressure you're under. It's just like knowing the answer and screaming it from the treetops for 40 pages. I xam see the town win and I sound completely desperate because I'm out of ideas about what else I can do.

[VP Baltar]

xam = can

Very clear

[VP Baltar]

VP, your theory is Luke was trying a swift vote-unvote combo and got caught out, yep?

What exactly do you think Luke could have achieved with that?

Psyche out Pav into voting him by portraying Ari as a scumbutt out to vote herself? Idk. That's the only thing that occurred to me.

Why do you think he voted ari?

[VP Baltar]

My theory as stated earlier: his vote was guaranteed to achieve the effect of freezing Ari's reads right when they were most beneficial to you.

I can't overstate how bad of a strategy this sounds. Why would scum risk losing a game when by all indications Ari was in favor of voting luke over Pav?

Like the optimal in your fantasy world is for Luke to win his game and then me to hammer on you today. It makes no sense to go down in some silly gambit that has no guarantee of working.

[VP Baltar]

Do you think that is a good scum strategy in this setup imaginality?

[VP Baltar]

It seems an unnecessary risk to me too, but unless you can come up with a better alternative explanation...

Why did you ask me about it then? If you agree your theory is just as bad as mine, what exactly was the point of the question?

[VP Baltar]

We also know for sure Pav had recently said he was on the fence and would want to poll everyone before he voted.

What do you think the overall outcome of that poll would have been?

This is why your theory is so bad. Much worse than mine. It was very clear luke was overall in a good position to win that game. I can read the room that much. It made zero actual sense what he did, so asking me for a plausible reason is silky theater.

[VP Baltar]

Who do you think is scum at the wall imaginality?

[VP Baltar]

We also know for sure Pav had recently said he was on the fence and would want to poll everyone before he voted.

What do you think the overall outcome of that poll would have been?

This is why your theory is so bad. Much worse than mine. It was very clear luke was overall in a good position to win that game. I can read the room that much. It made zero actual sense what he did, so asking me for a plausible reason is silky theater.

The overall result of the poll is it would have taken more time to conduct, during which time there would have been the chance for the dynamics between you/me/Ari to have shifted again.

Ok yeah sure. I can't believe scum would play this badly.

[VP Baltar]

If yall intentionally tanked the keep as a way to smear me, that is so desperate and poorly planned. The logic you're putting forward makes no sense.

[VP Baltar]

If I were scum I would be banking on Keep and hoping on Wall, not ditching Keep.

Lol this is literally what I just said and you're acting like this was your thought.

If I was scum, Luke wouldn't have done that shit and I would just win the gate. Wall would be the back up.

It's very obvious you are reaching for a smear on me because yall tried some silly shit that didn't work out. A VP scum team wouldn't have needed a silly gambit at all. That's what is ridiculous about what you're saying. It's completely unnecessary in a scenario where Luke was likely to win the keep and Tanner had indicated he was leaning VP town.

You can talk about chess and poker and whatever, but that simply wasn't the game state at the time. You're talking about fantasy.

[VP Baltar]

By the way, Tanner, imaginality and Baltar, feel free to do my reaction test if you want.

What is the test you want to happen?

[VP Baltar]

If I were scum Luke wouldn't throw Keep because he sees it's likely I lose Gate. Luke wins Keep, I probably go down against you at Gate, and then it's down to my buddy at Wall. And who's my buddy? I don't have one, I'm town. I already told Tanner who I think yours is, I don't need to tell you who it is because you can just look at your role PM to see.

I thought you said Luke couldn't win the keep? Regardless of which of us is scum, he was either in a good position to win it or not. My stance is he was and you all either intentionally tanked it as a gamble for the gate and wall, or he just straight fucked up.

Your stance was, previously, luke was going to lose the gate and the tide was turning on me so he got desperate. You all fundamentally misread the gamestate out of scum fear and that's what you're projecting in this theory. You don't get to say that and then also say if you're scum, Luke would be correctly reading the room and would have won. That's trying to state it both ways.

As far as who is your buddy, I've already laid out a decent case of associatives between you/Luke/NQ.

[VP Baltar]

Imaginality is also not actually scumhunting. He doesn't look at Luke upon flip and try to evaluate his posts. He simply says "implosion is the least likely to be limped, therefore he is scum"....which.

There's so much hand waving in your posts. You say the VP/Luke/implo scum team sacrificed the Keep because they are likely to win the Gate and the Wall. But why not just win the Keep and have much better odds overall? If scum were correctly reading the game state at that point, that's what they would have done. Instead, yall buckled under the heat of Tanner leaning against you, and Luke tried to pull off whatever terrible move yall concocted. It backfired, and now you're trying to serve up some wild theory about how losing was actually a good move for the scum team....it's complete silliness.

You're right that I don't have a good answer for why yall did what you did because it makes no sense. It was a move made under pressure. And the simple answer here is who was more likely to feel under pressure at that point knowing Luke's alignment was going to be revealed? The VP-Luke-implo scum team you are proposing or the Imaginality-Luke-NQ scum team I've proposed?

[VP Baltar]

And happy new year everyone! (Even you scumbutts)

[VP Baltar]

did anyone else notice how weird luke and toog/rh9 relations are this game? like, luke started off townreading toog and straight up inviting him to the keep which he obviously refused if he's scum.

I made a post about it, yeah. Seems slightly negative associative, but could be theater.

Rh9's reads list is definitely weird. That's why I was asking for his scum games earlier...but there is no meta there to look at.

[VP Baltar]

scooter ankle

Hahahahahaha

[VP Baltar]

Are you comparing how Luke talked to me vs how he talked to imaginality? I don't think the theater comparison is even close.

[VP Baltar]

Why did you shift from your 2-1-0 view to your 1-1-1 view?

My original assumption was it was all town at your location. The fact that no one shifted from there LEDs me to the more likely scenario of 1/1/1

you thought all three of imaginality, baltar, and tanner were town?

This also seems like an unlikely post if this is the team. What is the likelihood that scumLuke sees scumImaginality questioning scum!Toog and decides to jump in on it rather than let scumImaginality do his thing?

Again, feels like a negative associative for RH9 here.

If you do somehow manage to fuck up the gate, this post from me is probably key for the wall when you see my green flip.

[VP Baltar]

also this doesn't seem *that* clearing to me? like it seems like -partner yeah, but scum sometimes do be wildin' and i wouldn't bet the game just on this one post

Idk if I've seen three scum rolling in the mud like that together. It'd be weird. Definitely not game betting, but worth considering.

[VP Baltar]

By the way, Tanner, imaginality and Baltar, feel free to do my reaction test if you want.

What is the test you want to happen?

It's in 1805.

I wanted to see what people would think of it.

What is the test? I'm so confused

[VP Baltar]

Fascinating development from all the hemming and hawing.

[VP Baltar]

Hammer imaginality, be a hero

[VP Baltar]

My man out here sweating hard.

[VP Baltar]

If you agree with that theory: Would Luke feel certain I was going to win Gate? Nope. So it's VP plus someone they're confident will win Wall, which is very likely implosion.

You still have not explained why hypo-scum me wouldn't just have Luke win at Keep and me at Gate. This is the fundamental nonsense to what you're saying.

[VP Baltar]

baltar, could you point me in the direction of the immense grillings that luke was giving you over whatever shit it was? i don't feel like reading through either of your 200+ post isos to find it and i wanted to at least look at that today

Not immense grilling, just like repeated questioning and clearly indicating he found me "scummy". I think I cited some of this when I reread him. Standby.

[VP Baltar]

My concern at the moment is that you might know that keep associatives look bad for you, and therefore want to go first.

I don't see at all what would look bad for me there? Like the worst thing I think would be if someone said I had scum equity with you...which shouldn't make sense from your perspective

I think that a green Ari flip looks bad on you the same way that you are saying that your green flip would look bad on Ari, because then her case on you is then also coming from confirmed town.

And imaginality has also presented you as partnered with Pav, which obviously would be more threatening to you if correct and then flipped red.

So I kinda see why scum!you would want to flip before the keep.

---

But I also think that your town!reasoning for wanting to flip first stayed fairly consistent to questioning.

This might have been a fruitless line.

The benefit of doing the gate first is that is where the most associatives will come from. Fingers crossed, Tanner votes out imaginality and town is then up a game with good associatives to win the keep.

What associatives from the Gate do you think will help us win the Keep after you are gone? You already have those associatives, what do they tell you?

Since this has been on your mind, have you noticed him doing that this game? I might iso him for read progression now

Currently doing this. Starting with his solve of imaginality+ari+toog

Spoiler: Ari trajectory

212 - ari and tanner are not t/t

217 - ari is performative

**note to self to ask about Ari wrt his sort in 268/270

399 - lim all liars wrt Ari

412- claims he did not call Ari mafia (which seems weird given all mentions of ari to this point)

859 - Ari is in his team solve

Summary, there was definitely some fence sitting in the middle, but no about face.

Spoiler: Toog trajectory

I found zero expressed thought on Toog Day 1

but in 524, he said he had gut town pings on toog day 1

Also in 524, he shifts to scum leaning because of imaginality's town case on toog

859 - Toog is in his solve.

summary, there is a turn here, but it is unexpressed before the turn, so :shrug:

Of note, if Balter flips scum, there is a clear difference in how he approached the scum read on Ari and the scum read on Toog. The approach to ari was definitly strong enough to affect her ability to win the keep. But his approach to toog isn't. Much more passive, even before the Toog rep out.

I don't ever see Baltar+Ari as partnered, but I can see Baltar+Toog. If he flips before either of the others

@Ari - here is the short of it: I incorporated the desires of a now confirmed town player as the fundamental building block of how I sorted. Additionally, Tanner has a tendency to scum read me in almost every game we play, at least for a little while. Yet, I added Tanner to my own game, knowing that would be the case. There is no legitimate reason I would do any of that as scum...and I'd actually call that poor play on my part if I was scum. It's so obvtown from my perspective, that I think it is incredibly annoying I'm having to repeat it again.

Baltar, even if you think that this is obvtown from your perspective (lol). It is not obvtown from mine.

Tanner suggested you+imaginality, and you didn't fight it.
Why would that be an obvtown move to make? It is now mechanically confirmed that that suggestion is one scum + one townie. Why would a scum player fight against it, and possibly end up in the same game as their buddy?

Tanner scum read you, but he also scum read imaginality harder imo. -- Why would a scum player fight against this arrangement?

Who do you think that scum!Baltar would want in the Gate with him and imaginality over Tanner? The other options would have been Darby, toog, numberq, and implosion. 1-2 of these names are mechanically proven to be scum. Other then implosion, all three of these are miselim bait if they are town.

Would scum!Baltar really want to place himself at the gate with him + imaginality + miselim bait, and be foreced to IC either imaginality or miselim bait over Tanner?

-----

Most of this all applies to imaginality as well, so this is not even a point for or against you. He was also amiable to the baltar+imaginality+tanner at the gate suggestion.

But, you keep repeating that this makes you obvtown, and I just don't see it.

do you remember what the idea was behind this post?

I actually don't? It doesn't seem to make sense since they are all xlos?

And, I was not the one asking this question, but...

Doesn't matter maybe but wouldn't you consider it bonus points if you changed my mind?

Sure, happy to have you but I'm not certain certain you're town either so...

I do think imaginality's read on Darby looked fake af.

Do you think that imaginality having a fake looking scum read on Darby makes Darby scum or town. I was unclear the first time you mentioned it

Luke, can I ask why you're townreading Ari? Based off your posting, a lot of it seems to be related to Tanner interactions where you were assuming Tanner was scum. That wasn't true, obv. Are you still townreading Ari based on those old assumptions, or are there other reasons?

I don't think that any of my reasons for town reading ari were hinging on my read on tanner. When I sat down to do isos over the break, I did Ari and Implo first because they were in my game. Then I moved on to the Gate and read Tanner, and started scum reading him pretty hard, and then I agree that influenced my iso reads after that.

But a run down
Day 1:
- offering to vote tanner in the keep
- offering to vote me in the keep
- the way her vibe matched our prior game together (laid back alt gimick, but then breaking character to check into things that ping her. see )
- the way she started questioning tanner once I put out my own worry of tanner

Day 2:
- Asking Tanner to help her pick who to vote
- And like, the fact that she just showed that she has gone and read at least 2 different games that had both me and pav in it to try and sort the two of us. Seems like a lot of effort for scum who would already be in a decent position. She did not even use anything she found in the meta to change her reads. So she had reads. Read two whole games. Came back and said "yep, I like my reads from before"

Implo was talking about literal first movers and I was talking about early voters in general. The fact ari said that doesn't make her +town and it's silly you'd make that assumption.

I am not sure what you are saying here?

Spoiler: The posts I'm talking about

I kind of agree with Aris that first movers probably have +scum

due to the simple fact scum have more direct incentive to move first.

My point is there is more likely to be a scum among the first movers due to the desire to prevent a lockout.

I agree first first mover is probably slightly +town.

Of course, now that we have talked about it, it feels like it all means nothing, so...

From my pov it just looks like you called me +scum in 120 and then turned around and called me +town in 138 for the exact same action, both times being agreeable with who ever made the original argument.

Are you saying that you were calling ari +scum in 120? if so, why lead it with "I agree with ari"

Calling someone a potential town block material if they were in the null town range feel weird.

But also, why would even say this is you are scum? Wouldn't it be easier to just say 'I thought he was town, but obviously I was wrong"

Just saying what I was honestly thinking at the time. I don't even know what scum motivation you think exists.

This is a post where I am considering you being town, so makes sense that you are not seeing a scum motivation here lol.

The way you are dancing around the "potential town block" not meaning you actually thought he was town at the time, feels weird. And my gut reaction to that was that your day 1 reads were manufactured. BUT I don't understand why scum!you would go down this path instead of just saying that you discovered that you were wrong the moment Tanner was made an IC

I don't think I said I town read imaginality, did I?

the readslist was +town because readslists early often grab attention and scum doesn't want that - that's what you said. i assumed that meant you're townreading him.

from memory, what were your reads if he was middle of the pack?

I mean I definitely said that. I'm just saying it was not like I was simping for him in thread or something. That's why I said "potential" townbloc. I was not certain on him at all, but more in the null to potential town range. I still do think it's incredibly dumb for scum to post a reads list like that and it was the first thing I went back to now that I know he's scum.

Calling someone a potential town block material if they were in the null town range feel weird.

But also, why would even say this is you are scum? Wouldn't it be easier to just say 'I thought he was town, but obviously I was wrong"

Few reasons. I didn't think Tanner should be straight calling a location since he is a good player and if he was scum, I wasn't going to hand it to him like that. Also served as a bit of a reaction test to see how Tanner responded. Him being amenable to a slightly different version was protown

So you thought scum!tanner might be making a suggestion that was 1 scum, 2 town to help achieve a 1-1-1 split?

I don't know that I was thinking about it that hard. More just like, if Tanner is scum, they have a reason for that suggestion, so let me make a suggested change to the plan and see how he reacts. I also meant what I said early in the game that I can actually read Tanner reasonably well, so I didn't see harm for myself in being in the same game with him.

But I am trying to figure out why Tanner suggesting you+imaginality+implo was bad, but you+imaginality+tanner was fine. Could that not have been tanner literally just swapping himself with his scum buddy, and achieving the same split?

Thinking back, I don't know that he was actually the one who suggested him being there, so maybe that is a moot point? And also, you have already said you were not thinking about it that hard... hmmmm

I wish you had better answers lol

Here are a bunch of posts where Luke and I are having back and forths where he's kind of needling me on stuff or I'm calling him on bad logic while trying to answer questions.

I don't think this is some massive "could never be aligned" thing, so much as I think if you compare this to his interactions with imaginality, it seems obvious these are much more directional from him.

Luke imaginality is full of softballs and no follow up really on questions...which is classic scum.

As I stated in my reread of him as well, Luke's day opening reads list features him kind of shading me more directly while landing imaginality safely in a null range.

[VP Baltar]

My concern at the moment is that you might know that keep associatives look bad for you, and therefore want to go first.

I don't see at all what would look bad for me there? Like the worst thing I think would be if someone said I had scum equity with you...which shouldn't make sense from your perspective

I think that a green Ari flip looks bad on you the same way that you are saying that your green flip would look bad on Ari, because then her case on you is then also coming from confirmed town.

And imaginality has also presented you as partnered with Pav, which obviously would be more threatening to you if correct and then flipped red.

So I kinda see why scum!you would want to flip before the keep.

---

But I also think that your town!reasoning for wanting to flip first stayed fairly consistent to questioning.

This might have been a fruitless line.

This post seems fairly notable because Luke is pushing the same Ari-town = VP-scum that imaginality was pushing.

It makes zero sense for Luke to do this as my scumbuddy while knowing there is a good chance we flip town Ari first. That's just actively hamstringing your own team.

[VP Baltar]

RH9, will you please unvote so Tanner can make a decision?

[VP Baltar]

if your scumplan this game really is "yell at me until i hammer", i'm gonna be like. a little mad. just a little.

Imagine my annoyance as town waiting for days for this hammer.

[VP Baltar]

tell me you wouldn't be sweating if you had been ic'ed here >_>

I would have town read you by now. Even with due skepticism, there comes a point where the bulk of the facts point in a particular direction.

[VP Baltar]

@Everyone, how good would you rate yourself in Elo?

of course this was a fucking scum question that i decided to voluntarily answer to and say how much i hate being confirmed town in yelo

I forgot about this post, but might also explain why you'd get ICed over me. I think that's short sighted of scum, but the plan could have been to lean into your paranoia.

[VP Baltar]

mistyped it as town

A thing you would never say as town

[VP Baltar]

"oh look, here is a post with which i can explain why i totally didn't ic tanner solely because he townread me on day 1"

Wasn't even my point! You said it. Haha, so damn paranoid.

[VP Baltar]

As town you'd just correct a typo. No big deal. As scum, you feel compelled to give an explanation.

[VP Baltar]

My explanation was clearly a joke.

you've told jokes that are actually funny. That was clearly not a joke, just a mindset slip.

[VP Baltar]

As town you'd just correct a typo. No big deal. As scum, you feel compelled to give an explanation.

[VP Baltar]

Oh wait, he is saying he mistyped the word town, not that he mistyped it because he is town.

Eh whatever.

[VP Baltar]

Tanner, can you hammer now?

[VP Baltar]

But Baltar is right, you need to hammer soon or we might not get time to flip the Wall if you make a mistake.

This is kind of true, but I also know if Tanner just hammers imaginality we can celebrate. I actually really don't want this game to go to the wall because I think it's a very low information game still somehow.

[VP Baltar]

baltar, why do you think i should find the "luke bickered with me a lot but barely spoke to imaginality" argument convincing?

I just think that's how scum interact with their buddies naturally. It takes work to scum theater, whereas having low level disagreements with town players is very easy to do.

The people a scum player is going to interact with most are going to be town players they want miselimmed. Like I said before, you can look at the imaginality-luke interactions and see that Luke is asking limited questions to imaginality and he's not pressing him to slip up at all, or trying to link his flip to another player. There are just a lot of factors there that indicate Luke wanted me to look somewhat scummy while he mostly ignored imaginality.

[VP Baltar]

Here is a thought experiment.

Which is more likely? Luke tries to mudsling with both townies at the gate, or he mudslings with 1 town and 1 scum while completely ignoring the other townie?

I think the latter option doesn't make a lot of sense.

[VP Baltar]

why shouldn't i be getting worried here that you got sick of my indecision and told him to initiate flipping the keep first (like, he first started talking how he's gonna vote) so you could use this argument?

I'd say the same exact counterargument I said to imaginality: It really wouldn't have made sense from my perspective at that point in the game to try some type of gambit at the Keep.

Do you think Luke had a decent chance of getting the votes at the Keep? If yes, then the gambit he pulled was very dumb.

If I'm sitting at the Gate at that time with Tanner saying "I'm probably going to vote VP at some point," am I going to be like "oh shit, we need to gambit at the Keep!" Hell no. I just sit on my hands and wait my turn.

Now, think about imaginality on a team at that point? They feel like they are likely to lose the gate. The pressure is super high because I won't shut the fuck up about want the gate resolved. So they decide to charge into the keep, hoping an eventual Ari town flip makes me look bad and the balance at the gate at least shifts more toward 50/50.

The scum motivation for an imaginality team is clear, and not at all clear for a VP team. I would have no reason to be impatient as scum.

[VP Baltar]

he was mudslinging only with you, though?

Did you and him exchange some disagreements D1?

[VP Baltar]

Tanner saying "I'm probably going to vote VP at some point,"

Vote imaginality, thinking VP was town, I mean of course.

[VP Baltar]

he was mudslinging only with you, though?

Did you and him exchange some disagreements D1?

i mean, on day 1, back when it wasn't even known who was gonna go where. how does it make sense to categorize us as "players on the gate"?

Fair point. Just still saying he never really did shit with imaginality. But let's set that point aside even. Do you see what I'm saying about the game state and motivation for a risky Luke move? I just don't think that makes sense from a VP-Luke team perspective

[VP Baltar]

Do you see what I'm saying about the game state and motivation for a risky Luke move?

i mean, i get it. like, i was thinking of a game where town was similarly on the brink of winning, and scum started panicking and doing weird gambits. and here i'm like, if i really am about to hammer baltar correctly, what's the scumteam doing? where's the urgency? and then i realize not only did luke commit the unalive, rh9 did the weird sudden vote thing, and i'm like hmMMM

Right, I had the same concern when implo has been like "what if we get crazy and do the wall first!"

Scum are trying to find ways to shake up the game I think. Luke losing the keep put them at a huge disadvantage because there is still the chance you see my towniness.

[VP Baltar]

I believe in you Tanner. I know you can see the evidence and I'm asking you to trust that evidence. I don't think I've been evasive at all this game. I've answered all questions. I've scumhunted my butt off and pushed the game in protown ways.

There is no need to stay up until 3am. Drop that hammer. Bring us justice and let's party.

[VP Baltar]

I post like 75 times a day and was very clearly online when Luke did that. Why would I not be talking to him in the scum PT at that very moment? And the benefit is clearly to imaginality scum, not VP scum.

[VP Baltar]

but, when i asked him what's the point because he's currently saying vp is town, he said that he finds vp more townie, even with the above information calculated in. why would he then be offering to get flipped so that i have that information, if he deems it to not be *that* valuable?

If he is scum, I think he believes he wins wall. Then the score is 1-1 and maybe there's a chance you side with imaginality.

It's harder to see a reason as town.

[VP Baltar]

but, when i asked him what's the point because he's currently saying vp is town, he said that he finds vp more townie, even with the above information calculated in. why would he then be offering to get flipped so that i have that information, if he deems it to not be *that* valuable?

If he is scum, I think he believes he wins wall. Then the score is 1-1 and maybe there's a chance you side with imaginality.

It's harder to see a reason as town.

I volunteer a town!implosion scenario and that is that he thinks that associatives from his flip will help Tanner's decision.

Ok fair point. But he would KNOW it was 1-1-1, so he should know definitively whatever the associatives say.

[VP Baltar]

The question imaginality will dodge forever: why wouldn't luke just win at keep?

[VP Baltar]

Coming up with gambit theories fails to answer a straight forward question when a VP-Luke scum team would have had a massive advantage.

[VP Baltar]

-Luke wasn't guaranteed a win at Keep

His odds were very high if you correctly read the game state. Of course nothing is guaranteed. It doesn't mean you bet the house when you're in a strong position. The only reason to do it was to gambit for a game you were losing handily.

[VP Baltar]

inb4 vp baltar decides to inform me that i *can* get out of i just hammered imaginality ahaha

You know me well.

Do it now please. Imaginality is a wounded gazelle who needs to be put down. Any longer is just torturing the poor thing, dear.

[VP Baltar]

good night