open 841: concgratulations to the winners and losers

[Something_Smart]

But if it aged poorly(your implication) - after the fact that midway claimed doc -> clearly that means you consider them town, correct?

No? It means that team is implausible with how he tried to leverage his PR to deflect his wagon to me, the single least likely person to have a PR.

[Something_Smart]

Do you have any read on me at all this game?

Not really, no, my working theory is just that I can't read you at all.

[Something_Smart]

I think there's a misunderstanding on what bad town play is to me

I don't think so. PR's are part of town's tools they are given, just as the NK is part of scum's tools. You're saying that town should be able to ignore a major tool and still win, or else they don't really deserve it.

[Something_Smart]

The mob is literally you and the guy you're calling lockscum

[Something_Smart]

I think you're right though, I think it is actually plausible for scum!RB-midway to push scum!goon-S_S to try to keep the scum PR alive longer, especially with multitasking.

But I wouldn't have wanted something so heavy-handed, it could be meant to frame me and look like distancing, but more likely it really was just hoping that people respect the PR claim and push on an obvious VT instead.

[Something_Smart]

i dont think scum takes doc in that bracket

well no of course not, if midway is really doc then he's town.

[Something_Smart]

can you quote the doc-oriented POV posts? obviously if he's scum RB he would still be trying to drop hints that he was doc.

[Something_Smart]

Andante also arguably gave away that scum shot IV. She seemed inordinately confident about it, and it was one of the reasons I was pressuring her early.

[Something_Smart]

ss what do you think abt this one?

That post seems mildly +town for Cakez, I guess.

[Something_Smart]

Those midway quotes seem pretty heavy-handed to me, especially the third one... it doesn't seem like it would be out of his scumrange to be playing up this "there's a doctor" bit, especially if he also has a partner high up.

(Like Andante)

[Something_Smart]

why, and how is it different than andante 'slipping' she knew scum killed iv?

Level 0 logic is I think more typical of town Cakez? And if nothing else it's different because town-Cakez jumps to dumb conclusions all the time. But I think that assuming a particular kill was a scum kill is more reasonable than assuming that

both

were.

[Something_Smart]

Me? I don't think it was a "slip" if that's what you're implying.

[Something_Smart]

3252

[Something_Smart]

making the vig-slot in {cakez, catboi, mena, dats}

Unless Kaiji is scum, yes. Should we have all those slots claim whether they took vig/PGO?

[Something_Smart]

Should we have all those slots claim whether they took vig/PGO?

I'm answering my own question, yes we should, before we start making too many pronouncements about why/how scum would take vig.

[Something_Smart]

Did everyone in the scum-vig group deny being vig?

[Something_Smart]

Yeah I just read through and figured that out. Wonderful.

[Something_Smart]

It's logical to not use a 1-shot watcher ability N1.

[Something_Smart]

You think Faker was likely to die on exactly N2?

[Something_Smart]

The only reason to act N1 is if you think it would be your only chance to get a result.

[Something_Smart]

you're projecting how you would use that role as town to make it seem like it is the way faker would use it lol

Not necessarily; you were explicitly talking about what was

logical

. I don't know Faker well enough to know if he would go for a N1 hero play. I guess taking watcher over draft cop is already an indication that he might.

[Something_Smart]

i'm just really not a fan of midway's weird pivot on SS' slot and it makes me confident that that is never TvT

This just means you scumread him right? Because obviously if he's town, me being scum wouldn't make it any more or less plausible.

[Something_Smart]

how do you read skitter, SS?

Uh, pretty badly?

From memory I have her as somewhat +town from her interactions with me but nothing solid.

[Something_Smart]

Andante is tracker claim, so only the vig pairings.

[Something_Smart]

I Neighborized.

Whomst?

[Something_Smart]

VOTE: Andante

[Something_Smart]

I also tbf dont know why scum-her who knows they're iilling andante doesnt just say midway visited her

I don't know, because she thought it would prove her more?

Why does town-her do this after explicitly agreeing to track midway?

[Something_Smart]

i'm gonna need more explanation for this besides "she didn't do the thing she said she was gonna do", likewise at the other person who voted there

She didn't do the thing she said she was gonna do, based on knowledge that only scum have (that midway was dying).

That's literally her justification today-- "it was okay that I didn't track midway because he died".

[Something_Smart]

i didn’t track doc cause that was a stupid idea if doc died

This just doesn't make any sense from a town POV. Tracking me is a stupid idea if I am not exactly the scum who makes the kill. No track is going to return useful info 100% of the time, but tracking midway would be a literal cop check on him.

[Something_Smart]

mech optimal kill, smells like SS though

I mean I'm honored you're singling me out as a mech expert but "kill the doc who's about to become conftown" is kind of a no-brainer.

[Something_Smart]

s_s, do we massclaim here or no

If there's a cop with a guilty, or two living checks, or an inno on Andante, they should claim.

Otherwise I think no?

[Something_Smart]

scum andante would be taking a risk claiming a random track claim

ah yes, claiming the bottom person on the draft went nowhere is a very bold and risky claim.

[Something_Smart]

I am settling on 'doesnt make sense for scum-andante to track someone else but also kill midway'

It doesn't make a ton of sense, but Andante's play doesn't make a lot of sense no matter how you slice it. I don't think she's explained yet why she agreed to track midway but apparently was lying?

[Something_Smart]

SS literally malding that their mislim is slipping away lmfao

yup yup my scumread I've been pushing since the start of day 2 that has gotten 0 traction is "slipping away"

[Something_Smart]

I dont think so, but i also think it makes 'less sense' as scum than town?

Why?

I think town-Andante is much more likely to ask herself

why

she was asked to track midway.

[Something_Smart]

you're projecting what you'd do as town onto andante rofl

I'm definitely not, I would never ever do what Andante did as scum but I might do it as town if I was feeling confident midway would die.

I'm projecting what I would expect an average non-mech-expert townie to do.

[Something_Smart]

Because failing to track midway will call a lot of negative attention to her, which she could have easily avoided by claiming to have tracked midway to herself

But like that's equally true of town-her... clearly she wasn't thinking along those lines. It could well be that she thought midway dying would reflect badly on her if she was supposedly tracking him.

[Something_Smart]

P sure someone on the scumteam would have pointed that out to her tho, no?

Well it seems to not be accurate, so maybe not.

[Something_Smart]

SS wants to keep their mislim do u not see that rofl

When was the last time you even played with scum-me?

I think the last time I pushed someone as scum as hard as I am pushing now was like... 2018?

[Something_Smart]

?

She's not receiving that much heat for going back on her word. It's just me and Mare, and multiple people are actively defending her.

[Something_Smart]

in no fucking universe does scum say "hey I'm leashed to somebody, LET ME TARGET SOMEBODY ELSE AND GIVE INFORMATION I DON'T NEED TO"

The reason I didn't feel this way is that the information she gave isn't really helpful because it's a no visit. And I can definitely see the scum motivation in trying to make me look better, because it might make me like her more, or if nothing else it could give her an excuse to NK me without looking as weird.

There's a specific part of her reasoning that could make it make more sense to me. I will see if she says it; I'm not going to feed it to her.

[Something_Smart]

UNVOTE:

[Something_Smart]

Man Andante if you're town you got incredibly lucky that midway died.

[Something_Smart]

I was thinking something_smart was town but the way he popped in to chip at kaiji calling me town on day 2 bothered me

This is level 0 logic. Why do you think I wouldn't do this as town?

[Something_Smart]

My heart wants nothing to do with this game and it wants me to think about more pleasant things instead.

I'm kinda just really lost which makes me think massclaim might help to get me un-lost. In particular I would like to not have to dance around the few unclaimed slots because they could be a PR.

[Something_Smart]

I don't have nothing, I just don't have any read strong enough to be worth pursuing over mechanics. Which is normal for a mechanics-heavy open.

[Something_Smart]

Fwiw I think catboi's point about how scum might have the cop slot because they weren't trying to kill it is solid. And I think Kaiji's point about how scum didn't kill skitter because they were afraid she was BP is terrible.

[Something_Smart]

I mean, taking BP over cop is a scumclaim. I think most people know this?

[Something_Smart]

having teammates doesn't matter if you have trouble figuring out a target and never submit one in time

Depends if the mod allows people to submit actions for their partners. Most mods do.

[Something_Smart]

@mod do you allow mafia members to submit actions for their partners

[Something_Smart]

@SS who is maf/town here

I don't know

[Something_Smart]

So like, I think you're town.. definitely need help figuring out who to vote here/whatnot..

I think I can sit down and think about stuff tomorrow.

But I mean, don't get your hopes up. This table is full of strong players I can't read, and my one serious push was brutally shut down by literally everybody (and was honestly dumb in retrospect anyway).

[Something_Smart]

sounds like no one grabbed the cop?

I think it's likely scum have it which unfortunately doesn't help except that it makes all VT claims marginally more sus. And I guess it makes anyone proven not ascetic (like Datisi) marginally less sus, though the slot could be BP.

[Something_Smart]

VT, shockingly. Went for draft cop.

[Something_Smart]

Is no-flipping crazy here?

One advantage to it is it lets us prove whether Mena is really ascetic cop; if we trust that Andante and Mare are both town, we can no-exe and have them both try to visit him.

This would not clear him but it could guilty him if he's vengeful, or BP, or some other scum role desperation claiming.

If scum have a vengeful or N3 vig elsewhere, then a no-exe today is reasonable, otherwise it's obviously bad. Given the amount of VT claims and the fact that scum obviously wanted killing power I would say it's probably better than even odds that they do.

[Something_Smart]

Can we flip venge in elo or is it just auto-loss if we dont take venge our before elo?

I think if scum venge survives to elo we have to execute them last in order to win.

[Something_Smart]

cause if mena is real, MENA WILL DIE.

why?

[Something_Smart]

I confirm alive mena is real... doesn't mean those reports are real

It makes them much more likely to be, since it eliminates all the scenarios where Mena doesn't really have the cop pair, and even some where he does. Whereas, if you don't track Mena, you are guaranteed no info because he always makes the kill if scum.

Only a Sith deals in absolutes.

[Something_Smart]

you trust the "I have a hard guilty but don't vote it out" ???

That's a town mindset fwiw. If Mena wants to catch up/say more he wouldn't want the day ended quickly because he would obviously die if catboi flipped scum.

It is an easy mindset to fake as scum of course, but it's generally pro-town to be cautious in a situation like this.

[Something_Smart]

ok fine.. tracking mena

Only if we don't exe Mena or catboi obviously, but thank you.

[Something_Smart]

Maybe lets just have mare try to hood him if we dont flip him today, i actually dont trust andante to be leashed and i think that's possibly scum-indicatice but whatever

Oh wait yes it just occurred to me that we don't need Mare alive to confirm whether the hooding worked.

Having Andante track Mena is still useful because she can't really do anything else, but you are right that we don't have to rely on her.

[Something_Smart]

Though if Mare dies then Datisi can lie about whether the hood succeeded. Seems like people generally townread Datisi though?

[Something_Smart]

ok, but mena is responding to the prod PM... ignoring the daystart pm?? doesn't feel towny at ALL to me... if I was cop, I'd at least check my report, then go from there, MEna waited like 4 days to out this guilty? and to say dont hammer it?? not sure how it's believable

Making claims about activity being AI is always suspect to me given RL factors, but I do think you are right here that town-Mena with a guilty is more likely to proactively check and post his result than scum-Mena who failed to lurk out the pressure and is now trying a different tactic.

[Something_Smart]

No actually we'd need her to be alive, he would just lie aby the hood, no?

I was assuming that the OP of the hood would list who had access to it and that Datisi would know whether it succeeded or not. I guess that's worth double-checking.

@mod are the members of a neighborhood known to all hood members at all times?

[Something_Smart]

i cannot since a new hood is created every night

Aw man did I really not specify that my version of the setup doesn't use this asinine neighborizer variant that nobody likes and that doesn't exist literally anywhere else. That's unfortunate.

I will clarify that after the game. Actually I might just make a wiki page for this setup with a non-stupid name, since there seems to be some interest in it.

[Something_Smart]

you don't read a guilty PM and ignore it if you're town...

Yes I mean Mena was absent from the game for like 4 days, I would hope that's because he had something inhibiting him from visiting the site.

[Something_Smart]

pshhh I love tracker!! one of these days, I'll track maf onto the kill

Fun fact in the last run I was tracker and got 0 results and still managed to use them to guilty someone.

I also have an abysmal rate of getting guilties as investigative roles, as do I suspect a lot of people. It's hard, especially as tracker.

Pretty sure I have a higher rate of investigating someone who died than I do of getting a guilty.

[Something_Smart]

maf WILL kill in cop and I

Only a Sith. Deals in absolutes.

Why would Mena die if we no-exe?

[Something_Smart]

If Mena is town he's literally scum's game-winning mis-exe being handed to them on a platter.

[Something_Smart]

I’d be having a lot more fun if I was mafia.

Would you fake a scumslip in the hood only for Datisi to not notice it

[Something_Smart]

cause cop? like, why would maf kill outside me/mena??

Because people want to execute Mena! Scum don't win by NK'ing all the PR's, they win by gaining parity, and if people are going to vote out Mena, then they would want to leave him alive.

They very well could kill you, but that's why we double up and have both you and Mare test Mena.

They can't kill both of you

actually maybe they can, but hopefully not.

(And besides, you should ignore the possibility that you die when choosing a target, because if you do die then it doesn't matter who you targeted at all.)

[Something_Smart]

what about a no lim here, see if we have a vig, get this other cop report (that literally would have to be dats maf, or it's gonna inno a town) then if no vig, no lim again... get another report... like, I feel like we could piece together how real mena is off of reports...

We could do that yeah, but it just means scum-Mena has to put together a complete fake solve to push, which isn't an impossible task. But more importantly if scum have a vengeful then we can only afford to no-lim once, and we won't necessarily know if that's the case.

[Something_Smart]

however, if there's some chance mena is real.. 2 more reports? and that's not something maf wants

How much do they really care though? If they never NK him, then by the time he dies and his word is proven true, they've already won.

[Something_Smart]

if mena is pgo and mare and I go on mena... I hate this lol

Shit, that is a good point.

But I think PGO is unlikely just because I don't see why Faker would watch anyone N1, let alone Pooky.

[Something_Smart]

the quality of players here is enough that I think mena would be able to put together a good argument overnight

I fully believe that at minimum, all of catboi/S_S/skitter/myself are more than capable of helping him with that

I disagree with you including me in this, but you're probably right that if he's scum he has at least one teammate who can.

[Something_Smart]

you'd at least be able to be someone to bounce ideas off of

I suppose.

My planning skills as scum have been kind of abysmal lately though, if Holiday Dance Party was any indication.

[Something_Smart]

I would have added you and Mare fwiw

[Something_Smart]

Is she good at understanding mechanics?

If Andante is good at understanding mechanics then she's definitely scum here for the lack of mechanical comprehension she's showed.

My guess would be that it's genuine, though.

[Something_Smart]

we should go for the 2 visit strat, it is ok IMO if it is PGO because we only go to limlo with a conf scum and 1 of those 2 are within poe

If Mena is PGO and we send two townies to him we just lose on the spot, was the concern.

Seems very unlikely, though.

[Something_Smart]

what's the idea behind no-yeet? send both mare and andante on mena? i'm not signing anything that relies on andante listening to what we tell her >_>

That and also just to see who dies and see if scum have N3 vig.

And honestly I'm perfectly willing to let Andante throw and then blame the loss on her if she does.

[Something_Smart]

WOAH!!! HEY THERE…

I mean if we no-lim on the assumption that you are going to target Mena, and then you don't target Mena, and then we lose as a result...

Not really sure what else to call that.

[Something_Smart]

but if mare makes that hood happen? isn’t that plenty of info?

If she lives to tell us about it, yes.

[Something_Smart]

I don’t think mare dies here, and is she does, my reads truly make no sense

You think she's scum then? If so, then surely you would want to independently confirm her results instead of trusting her.

[Something_Smart]

catboi and dats need to make a hydra called datboi

I do not care that this meme is 1000 years old

[Something_Smart]

I'll +1 that read, I don't see Pooky and Dats making that play as very likely. They seem worlds apart in how they approach scum and Pooky might want to lolcollide but Dats probably wouldn't be comfortable with it.

[Something_Smart]

@SS you promised me some reads!!! like a day ago I believe

I promised engagement, I don't think I ever promised reads.

Given that we either exe Mena or no-exe today, I don't feel especially motivated to try and make two sets of reads depending on whether Mena is town or scum, and I'm not even sure it would be pro-town to do that, so...

[Something_Smart]

I mean, I'm pretty sure I said that before Mena outed his report. That changed things significantly.

[Something_Smart]

i'm not mad, i'm just sick of this game and everything in it

I feel like you post this every game

[Something_Smart]

I just noticed previous me did claim, but day still continues, why you don't believe?

A variety of reasons, the main one being that if scum have the N3 vig this is melo, so if your slot is scum and catboi is town we could just lose.

[Something_Smart]

The mechanically optimal play is still to no-exe and stack Andante/Mare on Enchant, but honestly I'm not even sure that confirming Enchant as ascetic would redeem the slot for me.

[Something_Smart]

Well we are considering no-exe to see whether or not scum have N3 vig.

[Something_Smart]

Well that significantly increases the chances that Enchant is scum without n3 vig/vengeful.

[Something_Smart]

Well I mean, in the world where you're scum, if your team has n3 vig/vengeful you wouldn't want a no-exe.

[Something_Smart]

if that slot is town, i don't think we ever win

The exception to this is if we can convince ourselves that scum-Pooky doesn't take ascetic cop. It is possible to confirm that Enchant is ascetic (if Andante can actually be persuaded to go along with it).

That doesn't strike me as a scum-Pooky move, but I don't think it's impossible.

[Something_Smart]

i think it's safe to assume that the scum highest in draft goes for cop

Not sure about this. If you get cop high enough you have to claim cop. That worked exceptionally bad for Ydrasse in the last run.

Also, it could have been a personal preference, if the higher player wanted a different role.

[Something_Smart]

Were you in the run of original PYP where I was scum redirector? I wasn't the highest draft of my team there.

[Something_Smart]

Looks like the enchant defense squad has appeared

The who now?

[Something_Smart]

Alyssa doesn't seem to be defending Enchant? Skitter maybe very lightly, but she expressed willingness to vote them.

[Something_Smart]

i'm kinda thinking, if there's a n3 vig, sure we lose if we misyeet

but, if there is no n3 and we no-yeet, we lose the one and only opportunity to actually have a guaranteed scumflip, and instead we've propelled ourselves into 8p mylo for literally no reason

The other thing here is that Enchant seemed to favor no-lim which makes it more likely that scum don't have a n3 vig if they are scum.

[Something_Smart]

if we yeet enchant and he's scum, then scum having a n3 vig isn't gonna result in an immediately lost game, soo...

Sure but it's still significantly better if we don't no-lim if there is no n3 vig, even if Enchant is scum.

[Something_Smart]

ss wants to no lim for us to just lose a ml?? uhhh not sure how I feel about that

I explicitly do not want to do that...? Not sure where you got that impression from.

[Something_Smart]

Would you mind explaining this?

I feel like it's pretty straightforward? If scum don't have the vig then no-lim is really good for them, but if they do then they would really want a mislim today.

[Something_Smart]

i think this is right, no?

Seems right to me.

Andante has a point that if scum have the vig they could just kill her and Mare, although I don't feel that would necessarily be the

worst

outcome? I would be more scared of one of them being scum and surviving honestly.

[Something_Smart]

true but then we're in obvious elo with:

- enchant/catboi in a 1v1
- enchant looking scummier by the minute
- 2 scum in {you, alyssa, kaiji, dats} and i probably can find at least one scum here, i hope >.>

pedit @ss

if scum have the n3 vig it's elo no matter what. at least there we will have a narrowed PoE and we will

know

it's elo.

also surely if scum have the n3 vig and Enchant is town they would have been hammered by now, no?

[Something_Smart]

that is also a good point!! Enchant has been e-1 twice now... not hammered. I think that points to enchant being maf tbh, like it would've been so easy for anyone to just hammer it, and no one would've thought anything of it

It definitely makes it more likely that Enchant is scum, but I'm not sure that it's necessarily true if scum don't have the vig. Hammering a townie in the midst of active discussion is usually fairly suspect, especially when some people are considering not killing them.

I am kind of convincing myself of no-lim again, because if there are 2 kills it basically just confirms Enchant scum.

Pedit: I guess I should go through and look at the actual votes to see if there's a possible team that never got a chance to hammer.

[Something_Smart]

With catboi/Andante/Mare, they would have been open to a quickhammer here. Mare never posted before Alyssa unvoted, but Andante's vote triggered her to unvote, so they could have just waited.

[Something_Smart]

VOTE: no lim

[Something_Smart]

Sigh.

[Something_Smart]

okay, can someone eli5 why no-yeet is superior here?

Basically, in a nutshell:
- if scum have the vig, we get to know that before we risk losing, and if they use it, then we basically know Enchant is scum (or if they want to protect Enchant, they have to give up on using it)
- if scum have the vengeful, we avoid secret elo
- if scum have neither, then we get a report on Enchant from at least one of Andante/Mare, and we also probably get a report from Enchant

Obviously the last case is still not preferable to executing today, but in the first two cases it's much better and we get a lot of info in the third case (including who scum choose to kill) so it is not the end of the world.

[Something_Smart]

Guiilty>cop
You should know that

You

should know that, however valid this may be, it is not at all valid if it could be elo.

[Something_Smart]

and also uhh what if enchant flips town cop
that'd be so bad wouldn't it

It wouldn't actually be terrible, because we'd have a guaranteed scum and we probably wouldn't lose to scum vig.

[Something_Smart]

Okay I chuckled but like seriously you need to either stop playing mafia or stop complaining so damn much

[Something_Smart]

Well, then we probably get a conclusive answer on Enchant.

[Something_Smart]

Galron what's taking you so long

[Something_Smart]

Something tells me the neighborizer isnt real

Why on earth would they make that up

[Something_Smart]

If you're trying to tilt someone intentionally it's a little fucked, imo.

More than a little.

[Something_Smart]

I mean you kind of implied it. I don't know whether it is or not, just saying it shouldn't be.

[Something_Smart]

The more this day has developed the more I want no-lim. I think the NK is actually going to be pretty illuminating.

[Something_Smart]

And also Enchant's check, if they don't die.

[Something_Smart]

Does galron even know he's supposed to be on enchant??

galron be on enchant plzzzzzz

Enchant check in alyssa/dats

To be clear Galron, the original plan was to no-lim, then have your slot and Mare (neighborizer) both visit Enchant (ascetic cop claim). The assumption is that Pooky probably wouldn't take ascetic cop as scum-- it's possible, but confirming the slot as ascetic would be a point in Enchant's favor, while obviously finding it to be not ascetic would be a hard guilty.

If scum end up making two kills, it also means Enchant is scum, because otherwise scum could have quickhammered them and won with the two kills.

[Something_Smart]

Fun.

It doesn't mean scum don't have n3 vig, but I guess that's moot now.

For now we just wait to hear results.

[Something_Smart]

Datisi/Pooky picking multitasking and intentionally colliding is a pretty tough pill to swallow. Though I obviously know that solve is wrong anyway, and I don't know how much of it is associative-based.

[Something_Smart]

Is no-lim in 6-way wise? Scum could have vengeful.

[Something_Smart]

That's... encouraging?

Why do you think I'm not? PoE?

[Something_Smart]

I don't generally buy into NKA much, but I'm clearly out of tune with how people think, just, in general.

I think that a Kaiji-scum/catboi-town world only makes sense if scum did have the N3 vig and Kaiji was just angling to win yesterday, and even then I find it unlikely that Kaiji would see that as the easiest way to win.

[Something_Smart]

I don't play rhythm games but I was just at a band practice which is kinda like a rhythm game.

Those definitely get easier when you slow them down, so long as people watch the damn conductor.

[Something_Smart]

The nightkills this game very strongly signify a "stable" type mindset

You and skitter are the types of players I strongly expect to have that type of mindset

Kaiji (at least I suspect as much) and myself are players that have an "unstable" type mindset

aka the nightkills this game aren't trying to fuck with people, they're playing around mechanics and avoiding PoEs

I feel like Koba's scumgame is dynamic enough to make stable-style kills when they deem it useful, but by and large this makes sense.

[Something_Smart]

I dont suggest faking a guilty that involves faking an inno on myself as well

Why not? If Menaslot is planning to take a fall anyway, the innos don't really matter.

[Something_Smart]

See: a prior iteration where he no killed to fake a jk-guilty (iirc that was the reasoning for the no kill)

It was more to fake-clear the JK (since we knew there were no other kill-blocking roles), but yes.

[Something_Smart]

Lmao

[Something_Smart]

So you believe catboi that he would kill Enchant as scum?

[Something_Smart]

Please do not do anything slimy without asking the mod first Mare.

[Something_Smart]

Why does it matter if Enchant gets another guilty though? If scum-catboi can convince people that town-Enchant is scum, he just wins immediately.

[Something_Smart]

Are you actually arguing for the possibility of me being scum still?

There's a

possibility

of you being scum, yes, but mostly I'm just trying to understand Kaiji's thought process.

[Something_Smart]

There's maybe one person alive that I have had any success at all with reading? I think even that's generous.

[Something_Smart]

s_s, would scum!you here make up reads or keep doing nothing like this

Depends on who my teammates were, I'd say. But probably the latter?

[Something_Smart]

you'd think i'd try to remember holiday dance party to compare but thinking is for LOSERS

Given how mechanically-oriented I am comparing my play between a mountainous and a non-mountainous game is a pretty bad idea, too.

[Something_Smart]

You told me you loved me last night but now you’re denying it meant anything.

Lmaooo

I had trouble highlighting this to quote it, I was laughing too hard

[Something_Smart]

dance games aren't mountainous

smdh mechanic expert you are

Taly being IC is not a PR because it doesn't change the game at all

[Something_Smart]

Enchant.

[Something_Smart]

And probably skitter, especially if Enchant is not BP.

[Something_Smart]

you are missing two more names

We can only kill one scum per day.

[Something_Smart]

?

I haven't forgotten about high draft being correlated with being scum. You being VT is statistically fairly unlikely, and the midway kill implies that scum have the cop slot and thus aren't scared of a cop, so you would be the prime person to have it.

[Something_Smart]

But from a mechanical perspective, the play is to flip Enchant today and then see what they flip and who dies. So asking "who else is scum mechanically" is kind of a bad question.

[Something_Smart]

is there a point to having discussion today if it's lowkey decided we're flipping enchant

We'd lose the chance for whoever dies tonight to give input. Other than that, not really.

[Something_Smart]

Yeah the postcounts this game have been kinda ridiculous.

[Something_Smart]

i hate recursion its a concept that i intensely struggled with when learning programming

I found it pretty easy. You just have to make sure that you have a good understanding of recursion first.

[Something_Smart]

Ok but what did you mean to link

[Something_Smart]

Cite me a game won by rushing and we can consider it.

This one comes to mind.

[Something_Smart]

Here's another one and I swear it's a coincidence that we're only posting games where skitter was scum

[Something_Smart]

The second game it's maybe less clear but there was a traitor who was pretty townread and might have been able to misdirect on the final day if town hadn't rushed a lim on the main scum.

The first game a newbie scum player was awkward early and received so much pressure that it tilted a partner out of their mind and they basically outed themself.

[Something_Smart]

people who are likely to die should be the ones voting tho.

Why is this

[Something_Smart]

I've only made one post in the last two days and Koba won't even answer it smh

[Something_Smart]

Oh so the point is the PoE people shouldn't end the day before the consensus town (or however close we're going to get) can say their piece?

[Something_Smart]

Man I've seen so many town players who I respect kill their scumreads with civility and a calm tone and I've waited to use this tactic for a long time.

This actually feels kinda awesome.

awe need to kill me before night kill analysis starts pointing against me and towards you, cute <3

6711 aged well.

[Something_Smart]

me, reading thru SS's iso, seeing a cute unaligned post in there :3

loook how cute it is!! awweee whos a good anti associative post!! you are!!

did you really make another post like this after I called you out for making the first one :/

[Something_Smart]

I think this is hammer, we ready to wnd day?

No objections here

[Something_Smart]

is there a point in no-yeeting today?

Is there a compelling reason not to?

[Something_Smart]

b) scum venge is on the table.

oh yeah this is a thing.

[Something_Smart]

Kaiji, what's your read on me?

[Something_Smart]

Likely scum if datisi is town.

That's awkward.

Is that just PoE?

[Something_Smart]

aight, so, now that enchant is dead and a nightkill has happened, what's your idea of a solve now?

I was trying to decide whether I should keep playing close to my chest but I probably don't need to try and be fancy.

Right now my top two townreads are you and Kaiji, and between catboi and Alyssa I'm more inclined to trust Kaiji on Alyssa, so my tentative solve is skitter/catboi.

[Something_Smart]

you townread me? ... who are you and what have you done to s_s?

If it makes you feel any better it's not due to any of your posts.

[Something_Smart]

s_s, why is kaiji town?

Two main reasons. One, I buy the argument that scum-Kaiji doesn't make these kills. If Kaiji is scum they have basically brought all of the people who can threaten them to melo. I do not think this is impossible for them to do as a WIFOM play but nobody has been buying this argument all game so it seems like it would be massively making things harder on themself to play into it anyway. Two, I don't think that scum-them tries so hard to control the game when their partner Enchant is already trying to cause a distraction, and this does feel like a situation where town would be more inclined to try than scum since scum only need one mislim to win. (Plus, I don't see scum-Kaiji burning that much towncred to push catboi over Enchant unless they win from it, so a team with Kaiji would have to have the n3 vig and have holstered it.)

[Something_Smart]

oh no, s_s is making me doubt

That is what I'm best at

[Something_Smart]

If u can clarify y u townread him that would be helpful

I felt like it was pretty obvious, but it's because I don't think Datisi and Pooky deliberately collided.

[Something_Smart]

Considering that in all the somethingteen times this game has been run scum have never deliberately collided, and that scum have a special tool that could mitigate an intentional collision that they did not make use of, and that Datisi is a pretty risk-averse person (I believe especially as scum?), it doesn't seem all that weak to me.

Certainly beats trying to read all y'all directly.

[Something_Smart]

I refuse to believe that there were 4 eod flip-candidates, all of whom were town, and that most of the people doing the pushes were town as well

Not sure I follow this logic. Wouldn't scum be more inclined to push if they had a member at risk of execution?

[Something_Smart]

All of the eod1 potential flip candidiates being town is ??? to me

In what way is it ????

[Something_Smart]

Because eod wagons with that much scramble are rarely all on town imo, and the more people involved makes it less likely

This feels like a misapplication of probability. If we assume that all wagons were completely random, then it would be 33% for all four wagons to be town (from a neutral POV), and 73% for the fourth wagon to be town knowing that the first three were. Is there a particular reason outside of this to believe that they weren't all town?

[Something_Smart]

2960 - this post speaks to me, and it says skitter and alyssa are not s/s (yes, i know nobody is thinking that they are, shut up)

I'm considering that team. I also don't think that post really refutes it; skitter does love her distancing.

[Something_Smart]

I mean, if skitter is ascetic cop, Mare can guilty her.

[Something_Smart]

How often do you see that happen?

I have no idea, but my intuition is that it's not

super

rare? The town's collective reads are often not better than random on D1.

[Something_Smart]

Ss why am i scum?

I haven't forgotten about high draft being correlated with being scum. You being VT is statistically fairly unlikely, and the midway kill implies that scum have the cop slot and thus aren't scared of a cop, so you would be the prime person to have it.

This, plus just PoE.

[Something_Smart]

This isn't what I would expect scum-catboi to be doing. But I'll admit I don't have a ton of experience there.

I just have PTSD from when he whooped my ass in a 1v1 by tryharding like crazy.

[Something_Smart]

Who are you claiming Kaiji would kill here, exactly?

I mean the people Kaiji fears most seem to be {Alyssa, skitter, you} so probably some combination of those?

[Something_Smart]

your accusation is that I played an informed alignment like I was uninformed, which is frankly hilarious to me.

in fairness there are plenty of people who do this. my best moments as scum are when I do something so strange that people think I can't possibly have an agenda behind it (and often my only agenda is to make people think that).

[Something_Smart]

Sometime later in D2 I caught on to her defending Andante in a very "I know she's town" type of way, figured it was because she was cop with an inno on Andante and didn't want to out her role

Just townbinned both of the two for the rest of D2, I was trying to send a signal that I caught on to what she was doing but I don't remember if I actually did or not, I think I did, got questioned about it, and decided not to follow up

oh this makes a lot of sense

[Something_Smart]

How so?

[Something_Smart]

SS and skitter and myself are all confirmed not SvS
Datisi and skitter confirmed not SvS

Where are you getting this from? There was never a quickhammer opportunity.

[Something_Smart]

Why's that?

[Something_Smart]

You feel very content to just watch this play out

I mean, yeah, I am. I don't know what else I would be doing.

[Something_Smart]

It just occurred to me that if catboi is scum he is probably vengeful.

[Something_Smart]

I mean, maybe it occurred to me before, but it re-occurred to me. I spent the weekend very distracted from this game by marathons and Pokemon Showdown, I apologize.

[Something_Smart]

I also feel like most of this recent discussion is not productive and insomuch as it is productive it's certainly not helpful for me.

[Something_Smart]

Because otherwise why would vig-Mena fake a guilty on you when he would get PoE'd anyway due to the 1s vig needing to be in a restricted pool

[Something_Smart]

and so the assumption is what, if I do get voted I get to vengekill someone and mena gets outed anyway? That's idiotic.

the assumption is that you get voted and the game goes straight to melo and then Mena fakes a guilty on Dats or someone else in the vig PoE for the win. It does not sound idiotic to me. (Or at the very least, it's less idiotic than you flipping goon and scum still needing another mislim and Mena needing to make up results that don't immediately get him killed.)

[Something_Smart]

I thought Kaiji thought Andante was vig because IV died and Andante was scumreading him

[Something_Smart]

Do you realize that it would look absolutely terrible to have a claimed cop surviving overnight? And that if that were the plan for some reason, I'd just immediately roll over and let myself die rather than fighting back? This is just an incredibly farfetched scenario

Like, aren't you supposed to be good with mechanics?

Do you understand what I'm arguing? I'm saying that IF you/Mena were both scum, then probably you are the vengeful. I'm not making any claim about the likelihood of you being scum (in fact, I think this makes you less likely to be scum because you are right that you are unlikely to draft vengeful). I agree with you on this, and on the previous point you made; if it's not melo, the cop being allowed to survive would indeed make no sense. If it is melo, it would be more reasonable for that slot to be left alive because it makes some sense as a scum target. That's why I doubt that you would be scum except if you were a vengeful.

Another way to rephrase the claim I'm making is that I don't think you're a goon. Does that make more sense? (Amusingly, a literal interpretation of your objection would imply that you are claiming you

are

a goon. But of course I assume you are objecting to the hypothetical, or just misunderstanding me completely.)

[Something_Smart]

If you expect me to be doing anything other than considering weird hypotheticals at a critical point in the game I've got bad news for you

I don't think it's borderline nonsense, it is reasonable to consider you as potential scum here, and I do think that out of all the catboi-scum scenarios that one is closest to making sense.

[Something_Smart]

But then he decided to collide with pooky and pick multitasking for the lolz

There is a chance, albeit a small one, that Pooky submitted that last-minute without Datisi's permission.

They are different timezones I believe, and I don't like to consider that the scumteam isn't necessarily working in unison but sometimes they don't.

Doesn't really move the needle much for me, but it's not impossible.

[Something_Smart]

What, you being town?

[Something_Smart]

Yes, but the upshot of this analysis is that it makes you less likely to be scum, because it means you would have had to pick vengeful, and I'm in agreement with you that that's a weird choice for you.

[Something_Smart]

why am I probable scum

[Something_Smart]

my high ass opening SS's ISO and realizing its all shit i would read from your average RIT student posting on yik yak (have actually experienced this)

no thx

I don't know what yik yak is but this feels like a dig :X

[Something_Smart]

oh yeah that sounds horrible

[Something_Smart]

if you wish to play probabilities, you can ask mathblade who handed me a scum win in white flag for free because "unlikely no scum on jester wagon".

Please do not conflate mechanical reasoning with VCA. That's like confusing astronomy with astrology.

Everything is probability. You act on your reads because you feel they have a high probability of being right. Mechanical-minded players act on mechanical arguments for the same reason.

[Something_Smart]

...you've played a game with me before, right?

[Something_Smart]

Maybe, but how would me being forgotten reflect on

my

alignment unless my partner were deliberately trying to make people forget me? I am equally forgotten as both alignments.

[Something_Smart]

They haven't, though. Datisi has called me town and skitter has been explicitly defending me. If the team is the two of them the plan is presumably for skitter to tie herself to me so I look bad after she flips.