Micro 1054 || Fuzzy Friends Coalition || Game Over!

[fireisredsir]

As I outlined in 518, scum have to play this setup kind of awkwardly. While it’s usually useful to get some townies pocketed by handing out townreads, it’s much more dangerous during the coalition stage of this setup, because oops you made townies townread each other and now they’ve coalition’d without you.

why do you think mena went to the effort of towncasing you in 414? i think the case helped make some people townread you and seems counter to the narrative you stated that he has here

[fireisredsir]

See it’s you saying shit like that that makes me think you’re scum

This is exactly what you did in ktane, sidestepping the broader point to try and focus in on small inconsistencies

nah that was actually a good point, who were you referring to as confbiased?

[fireisredsir]

you are in the possible scum candidates list of a lot of people, yes, but i don't think you could make the case that any could be confbiased except irrel and std

[fireisredsir]

You just tried to bait a hammer on me

also i feel like it was p clear this was a joke

[fireisredsir]

???

[fireisredsir]

i don't think the case was very good though, or at least not proportionate to the level of confidence that he is placing in it

[fireisredsir]

I was more interested in StD because he had more of the "trying to look like he's sorting" than NK15 in his ISO, whereas NK15 was just... sort of there, doing his own shit, and not really worrying about looking like scum

like this was his response to me saying "why do these reasons apply to std and not to nk", when imo they apply to nk just as much if not more

like, "more interested"? this doesn't really feel like the response of someone who thinks they have guaranteed found scum and want to be deadsheeped

but i do think he knows that multiple people here would expect that from him as town having just read the end of ktane and so he does have scum motivation behind at least putting up a front of doing that

[fireisredsir]

idk i just kind of feel like he's hitting the same tonal markers of [frustrated that people don't see him as town, very high confidence, demanding that people listen after he dies, annoyance at scum for being scum and for other people not seeing it]...

but without the evidence to back it up?

like i feel like ktane went, (1) mena gets suspected and pressured -> (2) mena solves and cases with good, in-depth reasoning -> (3) all of the above in brackets

and here we're kinda missing step 2

i guess the idea if he's town is that he has already done that in his head but just doesn't have the energy to put it in thread? but the thing is that as scum, step 3 is way more important to getting townread (cause it matches people's expectation of how he will act emotionally), requires way less effort than step 2, and most people probably won't even really care that he skipped step 2. but as town, step 2 is the only thing that matters, bc step 3 is not going to convince anyone that his solve is correct once he's dead. and i don't think that it really makes sense for step 3 to happen at all as town unless he has gone through step 2 already

ofc the trajectory doesn't have to match exactly for him to be town. he could have a completely different response. maybe he doesn't find anything convincing. maybe he doesn't have time to effort at all. w/e, that's fine. but as scum he kind of has to try to match trajectory bc people will be expecting it

tl;dr i wouldn't scumread him for lack of effort and strong casing alone. but i do think that not having that makes his emotional trajectory not really make as much sense as town. and to me thats why im leaning towards feeling like it's just AtE

[fireisredsir]

the point is that he self-voted as town in ktane which just ended and several of us were in/were reading

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p13354122

i think him demanding you self-vote was kinda ridiculous tho and doesn't really make any logical sense

[fireisredsir]

or are you asking for a time when he was town and asked someone to self-vote? if that, i have no idea

[fireisredsir]

mmm idk if i really agree with that reasoning bc that would mean he expects you to do it. and i really don't think that's the case, as either alignment

but i think it is somewhat scummy bc i don't think there's any reason to believe that you would be likely to (or that you should) self-vote if you're town here

and the only reason to demand that is if the implication is that town would do that

[fireisredsir]

1117 was about std, and he had previously said he wouldn't vote for a coalition with him in

not exactly a scumcase but yea

he had mentioned suspicion of him a few times before as well, like 492

[fireisredsir]

If I understand right, both scum can be in here. Is there anyone who can cross off the list as town? Since it was basically a nomination format, I'd consider town locking anyone who seemed to be a consistent choice Day 1.

ye, 1 or 2 scum. skitter was prob consensus most townread during coalition forming, rn i think it's fairly equal between skitter/ari/datisi, with some people having paranoia on each of them

[fireisredsir]

why do you not think it would work on ari

[fireisredsir]

maybe not specific meta points but like the AtE in general clearly did have an effect on ari

[fireisredsir]

ty for bringing up perpetual melo btw now that ive read some of that i don't feel bad at all for considering that the emotion could be faked

[fireisredsir]

just that he is willing to get tilted and yell at people as scum and call them bad much more than he has here

[fireisredsir]

i still think that here he doesn't have the evidence to back up his level of confidence that would result in the emotion he has displayed

[fireisredsir]

oh not at all confident

i would say im slightly leaning mena at this point

[fireisredsir]

what was the impetus for looking at mala specifically at this time

[fireisredsir]

fair

[fireisredsir]

god dammit i townread 1903

[fireisredsir]

BUT

still like idk how for example this post comes from the mena we're seeing now:

I’m also saying it now: if I get flipped today and I tell you that I have a high confidence interval in StD scum (or I get to a similarly high confidence interval on someone in coalition)

I want that person flipped tomorrow no questions asked

Ari, look me in the eyes and tell me that’s an unreasonable request given how incredibly right I was last time

i just don't see why town would say this so pre-emptively? but there's like multiple scum benefits to doing so (matching ktane tone to get townread by people who read that, vaguely threatening, projects confidence and a lack of fear of death while at the same time making people less likely to want to lim him)

but he says if he says he has a high confidence interval by the time he gets limmed. i don't think anywhere did he actually say he did have a high confidence interval yet. so why say this as town? it's all just bluster

[fireisredsir]

Fire, you’re the only one besides std and I who seems to see that anything mena is doing is scummy. Consider why you and std are basically being ignored and I’m collecting votes for making a push you (at least sort of) agree with. Please appeal to those you think are town a little louder, if it’s something you believe in.

i don't trust myself very much and generally feel really bad when i convince people to do something and it ends up being not a good thing :<

ik that's like part of the game of mafia and i should get over it but i don't wanna be a leader rn sorry

[fireisredsir]

ughhh

i was kinda getting paranoid of datisi and so i went to go reread his scum games to remind myself what that looks like and how ive thought he was town when he's scum before

and came away from it thinking that it doesn't really feel similar to this at all, actually

so now idk what to make of that

[fireisredsir]

i still don't understand who he thought was confbiased

[fireisredsir]

hi bloodhail!! good to see u hope you're town

[fireisredsir]

because his reads and conviction stem from a real place, he's obviously annoyed at being misread even if he's trying to hold back on it but he's an omgussy boy and that's where the whole elim me and sheep my reads bit is coming in, i dont think thats the approach he takes as scum. hes obv someone who dislikes getting misread (i know b/cfi am too) and thats coming out in his play

this isn't that convincing to me tbh

like i feel like these are exactly the markers he would be trying to hit if he were scum here so the fact that he's hitting them doesn't really do much to make me think he's town

you've played with him more so ig you can just say that you know what he would do better than i do, but idk, still doesn't really do a lot for me

[fireisredsir]

hmm I had datisi and mala marked as explicitly not partners earlier

gonna go see if I can find why I did that

[fireisredsir]

i do agree that datisi's skitter suspicion is kinda weak reasoning but like

i don't think its even top 3 weakest reasoning for a suspicion

mena alone holds 2 of those spots

[fireisredsir]

hmm I had datisi and mala marked as explicitly not partners earlier

gonna go see if I can find why I did that

i think maybe it was the way that mala was fighting to get datisi out of the coalition near the end of phase when she was already being left out

ig the counterpoints are:
- she didn't have much sway anyway since a lot of people scumread her
- maybe there wasn't much chance for datisi to be left out at that point? idk I thought it was still possible since skitter didn't really want him in and she was kinda given the role of coalition leader
- as soon as the coalition fails she switches to townreading datisi and voting mena which is kinda hmm

[fireisredsir]

dats-roden-nk15 with some paranoia on u

i don't think ari is partners with nk or roden/mala unless you believe that her asking to be left out alongside them was a gambit

but i think people were p down to roll with it and she seemed happy with that

[fireisredsir]

mb fire's just right i dunno now :<

i'll be happy to sheep whatever you decide to skitter <3

brain feel mushy

also would prefer we get a decision in b4 we get 3 days on the clock.

is there anyone who should be there that isn't / do you strongly oppose to any of these?

I don't have any objections to that.

I think you probably have a better read on mena than I do.

for reference

here, at a point when we still think the whole day 1 is only 7 day deadline so we're in a bit of a hurry, she is willing to sheep skitter and pushing people to consolidate and skitter has skitt/mena/datisi/std/irrel as her preferred coalition

like this is why i said that ari could go in cause she would only be partners with people already in

i don't think there's any way she's partners with nk/mala

[fireisredsir]

im learning so much about how to play scum from these games

v educational

when i finally roll scum ill be so ready now, you'll never catch me

[fireisredsir]

here's another thing

you never bother discrediting someone that you're poe scumreading who is attacking you and is likely to get flipped

because if you think they're scum

their scumread of you dies as soon as they flip scum

you only bother doing discred because you need to win the argument

ok wait you lost me on this one

who are the yous and theys as this applies to this game

[fireisredsir]

i feel like people still try to discredit and win arguments against people that they think are scum and are likely to flip all the time? especially if the flip is not like at all guaranteed

idk maybe im still not following

[fireisredsir]

ok but what if he convinces enough people that you're scum and flips you instead

cause i think thats not out of the realm of possibility here

[fireisredsir]

aren't you saying that datisi doesn't have a reason to discredit bloodhail?? am i still not following

[fireisredsir]

im just trying to understand what you're saying

i think its probably not very important so its not really a big deal lol but if its a significant point for you then it is not getting through at all

who are you saying is or isn't scum as a result of this point

[fireisredsir]

ok thank you, and im saying that datisi!town isn't necessarily sure that bloodhail is going to flip at all right now

like i think there's a world where the lim ends up on mena or even datisi today

and if datisi is town and thinks bloodhail is scum then wouldn't discrediting help prevent that?

[fireisredsir]

ok but what if he convinces enough people that you're scum and flips you instead

cause i think thats not out of the realm of possibility here

the "you" in this was continuing your usage of "you" to mean datisi and "he" to mean bloodhail, sorry for adding to the confusion lol

[fireisredsir]

bloodhail, do you think there's any merit to the argument that mena's cases aren't strong enough to justify his level of frustration/confidence?

wondering cause im not like super confident in it but it is kind of a sticking point for me atm

(references: 1794, 1796, and 1797 I talk about this, 1558, 1744, 1746, 1767 are examples of the kind of attitude i was talking about from him)

[fireisredsir]

hmmm ok ty

i do also feel like there were times when he talked about it in a way that made it feel like he didn't actually have that strong of confidence in it, and times where he did, depending on who he was talking to/the situation, so that factored in as well to me thinking it was putting on a show

[fireisredsir]

hmm i will prob not be around at deadline o'clock tomorrow

will try to figure out where i want my vote to go tonight if i have time

but im not really at all close to feeling confident about anything atm and not sure if that's likely to change

[fireisredsir]

i'm not sure i'm going to get to a better answer than 'bloodhail' today before deadline

i kinda buy that he wouldn't have entered like this as scum but im not sure if that's like reasonable at all

idk i am weak

[fireisredsir]

NK15 feels obvtown to me, he's too confident and tunneled to be scum

that reminds me, idk if anyone commented on it at the time cause sorting roden wasn't super high priority

but this is a bizarre take

[fireisredsir]

especially compared to bloodhail's read which seems much more believable and what i would expect people to see

[fireisredsir]

NK15 feels obvtown to me, he's too confident and tunneled to be scum

that reminds me, idk if anyone commented on it at the time cause sorting roden wasn't super high priority

but this is a bizarre take

Bizarre players require bizarre takes.

I read NK15 and other players like him using a certain barometer: does this player actually believe in what they're saying? If you can determine that, it doesn't matter if you think they're saying nonsense. Tone + conviction is what matters, and it's what often gets that kind of player caught when they're scum.

why does changing their solve every time they pop in the thread read as tunneled and confident to you

[fireisredsir]

will try to figure out where i want my vote to go tonight

haha this was a lie

i wanna see datisi back in here first anyway so we'll see tomorrow

[fireisredsir]

fire im a little confused as to whether you think my slot or menalque is more likely to be scum at this present moment in time

IDK MAN ME TOO

im all blues no clues

[fireisredsir]

i was coming around to feeling irrel town before he replaced out, and I've felt you've been reasonably towny since replacing in. my scumread on mena was gradually overtaking my read on irrel

but then like now you've added one to the pile of people i think are maybe kinda townish and also have a lot of experience with mena saying that he is likely town

and if you're t-t i was kinda in agreement with ari that if it isn't in you/mena then its prob most likely to be datisi, and you agreed, and roden agreed, and replacements usually are worth listening to since they have a fresh perspective

but then datisi comes back and idk i thought his responses this last page were towny and made good points as to why he is unlikely to be scum on first reaction

so i do not know where that leaves me

i will read them again and think

[fireisredsir]

your short answer is "mena"

your medium answer is "mena, but then wait, if you're town, then should i be considering that your read is right on mena?"

your long answer is the above

[fireisredsir]

before sleeping last night my answer was "maybe datisi, actually" but i don't think it is anymore

idk maybe im just easily convinced of things

[fireisredsir]

which point was good?

i thought one of the better points was that i don't really see a scum benefit to him sitting around and being so indecisive today for so long?

ehh ok actually ig if he is going in with the idea that he is townreading mena and townreading irrel, then he doesn't really need to rush into anything since as town he wouldn't from that position

brb ill reread

[fireisredsir]

ok on reread i kinda think that in hindsight, if datisi is scum it prob was a mistake not to just let himself get convinced on irrel or mena and push that through. but im not sure if he could have known that at the time. maybe he even was planning to but then they both kinda got towny at a critical moment. maybe he didn't think the lim was ever going to be outside those two and so he just acted how he thought he would as town. maybe his partner was already hard pushing there and he didn't want to double up too hard or go counter to his partner (idk who this would be though? remind me to consider this further post flips). maybe he was too focused on what his trajectory will be for the future instead of on today.

and now he could be doing the thing that scum do sometimes where they channel the energy of "man i wish I had done x instead of y" and turn it into "why would i do y as scum when its better to do x??"

couple other things of note
- looking back i still don't love the early push on skitter post fail
- 1450 kinda feels like he could be hunting for someone who follows the pattern of his own strategy, since that's prob exactly what he is doing if he's scum here
- i thought 1514 was a good point and it's weird that there wasn't any follow up to it that i can see
- i think in hindsight my points for datisi town in 1287 are not very good actually, since he has successfully worked his way into having more than just skitter as a scumread. my experience with scumtisi is also in a large and a dance and i realize he prob approaches a 9p that has lots of people he knows very differently than those

[fireisredsir]

i think i would feel much worse about if i voted datisi and he flipped town compared to mena/bloodhail

which historically for me i think means its more likely to be the correct vote

[fireisredsir]

i was kinda hoping mena would be around today

[fireisredsir]

mmmmmmm

[fireisredsir]

uhhhh

[fireisredsir]

if he flips scum why wouldn't you get listened to

[fireisredsir]

2198 was coming from his perspective, and i'm assuming he's emulating a town one? i don't get why he's saying i'd be on me to solve the game tomorrow if he dies today.

i don't think it really makes sense for you to be responding to him carrying on the assumption that he's town there?

ive read it a bunch of times and tried to see different perspectives but i don't really see why you'd say that

you're pre-emptively discrediting his push on you as being from wrongtown even though you think he's scum?

[fireisredsir]

ok nvm I can see it i guess

[fireisredsir]

you're saying that his statement doesn't make sense to make if he is town?

[fireisredsir]

hi

[fireisredsir]

Sup

yes

[fireisredsir]

Sup

yes

if he's town that thinks he's going to die, why say "you have to solve the game tomorrow" at me? he has cemented that he wants me dead if he flips green

like, if he told others that they have to kill me, that makes sense, but why say that to me

meh i didn't think it was "solve to save yourself from dying", more "solve bc if im wrong people may listen to you after you die"

[fireisredsir]

- while also sayinf you dont think he's most likely scum

i also thought his original calling the case bullshit while also implying bh was town was a strange perspective, but here i think this is wrong

"doesn't mean I don't think he's most likely scum" = does think he's most likely scum

[fireisredsir]

I'm willing to do Mena still if that's an option but I dunno if theres enough desire there and I just don't know if I'm just wrong even though I agree with your points

i also agree with ari's points and was feeling similarly and would also be willing to vote mena

[fireisredsir]

VOTE: menalque

[fireisredsir]

meta read nk and am feeling p confident he is scum btw

[fireisredsir]

it's borderline ridiculous for you to think I would defuse a datisi-bloodhail t/t fight 2 hours before d1 deadline by hard shoving you out of nowhere with a bullshit argument I'm not bad at playing scum and you should know this.

This makes perfect sense for you to do as scum because it conserves the t/t datisi/bloodhail fight for tomorrow

how is burning towncred by last minute forcing through a (fypov) town lim outside the 1v1 better than just letting two town elims happen and probably winning in elo

this does not make perfect sense

[fireisredsir]

if her approach is to just survive the day then there's no reason to do this????

[fireisredsir]

it's borderline ridiculous for you to think I would defuse a datisi-bloodhail t/t fight 2 hours before d1 deadline by hard shoving you out of nowhere with a bullshit argument I'm not bad at playing scum and you should know this.

why not?

i was going to comment that saving me/bh for tomorrow would be a possible play so i don't get what's so impossible about this from you

saving mena for later is also a possible play and requires much less taking obvious noticeable action

[fireisredsir]

ah let's not

[fireisredsir]

|:

[fireisredsir]

Datisi, tell me that this is not incredibly reminiscent of the most recent case where I was right on ari being scum?

not really imo

[fireisredsir]

VOTE: bloodhail

i do not want to have to dangle by a thread for multiple day phases because people can't make up their mind on my alignment


if you pivot off me to kill town that i am townreading then pendulum swing back onto me that is just an outright throw

this is the only day i will do this. if you want to resolve this slot's alignment, do it NOW.

i don't really want to vote you though (either today or tomorrow most likely, if we flip mena and he's town i would prob go to datisi) but i think mena is more likely scum than datisi rn so

like ik the prospect of not resolving this today is not pleasant for you but fmpov if you are wrongtown (which is possible) then you and datisi just get flipped and we are in a shit spot

but idk w/e we should prob just end day for sanity's sake it's just hard for me

[fireisredsir]

I would be more inclined to believe any of what you’re saying if it hadn’t all flowed out of my lack of being in game today and my 4 posts, and how weak that is for a player who is typically as good as you to think I’m scum for

i had exactly the same line of thought as she did

i mean maybe im not good enough for that to mean i have to be scum but i feel like that counts for something

[fireisredsir]

VOTE: bloodhail

i do not want to have to dangle by a thread for multiple day phases because people can't make up their mind on my alignment


if you pivot off me to kill town that i am townreading then pendulum swing back onto me that is just an outright throw

this is the only day i will do this. if you want to resolve this slot's alignment, do it NOW.

i don't really want to vote you though (either today or tomorrow most likely, if we flip mena and he's town i would prob go to datisi) but i think mena is more likely scum than datisi rn so

like ik the prospect of not resolving this today is not pleasant for you but fmpov if you are wrongtown (which is possible) then you and datisi just get flipped and we are in a shit spot

but idk w/e we should prob just end day for sanity's sake it's just hard for me

by the same token it's equally devastating for me if people pivot off me and i'm right given i will find myself likely to be fighting the same battle

so it goes both ways

i just want commitment on me rather than people waffling and shelving me for later

if you want to go on record saying you don't think it's me, then, cool

i can't promise that won't change in the future but yea rn i don't

[fireisredsir]

whats datisi at, 3 or 4?

[fireisredsir]

thats also what i got

[fireisredsir]

will vote once skitter is caught up

[fireisredsir]

nk probably will not be here in the next hour

[fireisredsir]

k let's just end we're doing dats

[fireisredsir]

VOTE: datisi

e-1

[fireisredsir]

the benefit is mena feeling like you're willing to work with him

[fireisredsir]

stop sniping pls

[fireisredsir]

shocking

[fireisredsir]

hi i think its nk but its possibly roden

[fireisredsir]

gosh fire has such a cute iso mb its not him ~_~

[fireisredsir]

def thought bloodhail was dying so kinda interesting that he didn't ig

[fireisredsir]

i dont think datisi mails it in regardless of who his partner is

mm yea but last time i saw him play scum in spring fling he was definitely not trying nearly as hard as here tho :>

wasn't that during exams

i could see him just trying to hard solo carry here

[fireisredsir]

you townread nk?

[fireisredsir]

im happy with either roden or nk being the lim

i scumread nk more cause i think he is like extremely in his scum meta for multiple reasons but i also don't have a ton of faith in my own reads this game

would really really need to be convinced on skitter/ari, dont see them as likely partners, and i think bloodhail/std are town too

[fireisredsir]

Myself and Ari will probably have to be limmed after this. This leaves us with one more lim. Who?

this post is just weird from someone who had ari/datisi as their scumteam

like why would he care about another lim

[fireisredsir]

Tbh you likely would've died if Mena hadn't replaced out since he was tunneled on town slots.

what slots are you referring to here

[fireisredsir]

it didn't feel similar ):

[fireisredsir]

Tbh you likely would've died if Mena hadn't replaced out since he was tunneled on town slots.

what slots are you referring to here

The slots he was tunneled on.

We had this conversation yesterday.

...did we? i can't find it

why are you so confident in them being town?

[fireisredsir]

Mena switching from "kill STD" to "kill Rella -> Ari" after acknowledging he's the most likely elim today feels like a spew that would be harmful to his scum partner since I don't think it would be either of them in that scenario,

I dont understand this bit

Basically scum doesn't make those posts and final read lists if they know they're gonna die. Rena/Elephant and Rena/Ari don't work as scum teams at that point either since they don't fit a scum agenda. I wish was more eloquent in getting my thoughts across but I can't think of a better way of explaining it.

It was with Skitter actually but yeah.

i don't really understand how this is you saying that the slots mena was tunneled on were town?? its just saying that mena is town

[fireisredsir]

Can anyone explain why they think I bus Datisi instead of just voting out Elephant and setting up Mena as the next mis-elim?

bc once bloodhail comes in with a scumread on datisi, datisi like almost always dies there? based on gamestate and how people were responding to him, even if he dies first datisi prob flips next, and you would want to be on that early

your trajectory was heading towards irrel until bloodhail showed up, and then you followed him onto datisi

[fireisredsir]

Can anyone explain why they think I bus Datisi instead of just voting out Elephant and setting up Mena as the next mis-elim?

bc once bloodhail comes in with a scumread on datisi, datisi like almost always dies there? based on gamestate and how people were responding to him, even if he dies first datisi prob flips next, and you would want to be on that early

your trajectory was heading towards irrel until bloodhail showed up, and then you followed him onto datisi

your narrative here is like complete bs actually maybe it is just you

the pivotal point in the game was bloodhail showing up with a scumread on datisi

prior to that, it was likely a irrel/mena 1v1 with datisi going after that

after that, it was likely a bloodhail/datisi 1v1 with some chance of mena happening

you are presenting it as you had the option to either bus datisi or vote irrel. that is totally not how things went down, you never had that option. at the time when you voted datisi, irrel was gone. those were never two things you were deciding between

[fireisredsir]

Mala not going all in on you should be clearing after Mena's flip. Mena was tunneled on you and Mala could've easily followed, instead she voted Mena.

this is also a ??? reasoning, there's no way that mala following mena onto std is a most likely route for her to take as scum there, let alone so likely that it should be clearing

[fireisredsir]

he lives yesterday (and you probably expected him to) but i don't think he lives to elo

[fireisredsir]

mena probably dies after irrel if irrel was still in the game. don't think there's anything to point to that being true after bloodhail came in

[fireisredsir]

i guess i'm just not sure why scum-her even brings dats up as an option eod at all

this was my thought too, like it only ever makes her look worse for pushing mena instead, i don't think there's really any scum benefit behind it

[fireisredsir]

which kinda makes me think fire leapt into his pocket but i can see it both ways

it's comfy in there i can't help it

[fireisredsir]

like jesus chirst think for a bit what my scum plan was in this game

consistently shade the slots that are lower on the poe

consistently try to push the people that are ABOSLUTE HELL to misyeet into the coalition with me

is this something that scum does?? do you think i hate myself so much i'd walk into a coalition with people such as you and mena and ari that i know for a fact scum-me can't outpost, and irrel who i can very much see is a competent and a high-wim player

so many times there was someone who talked about maybe putting in nk15 or mala or fire or std and those are all people that are easier to deal with than all of you (and you can't argue they're all my partners) and that i would be having a much easier time turning on later on but nope? i decide to stand my ground and get the players i know i can't win a fight against as scum into the coalition because why??? i think the wifom argument is going to carry me to victory???

i think this post is interesting

mostly cause im wondering which bits of it were honest

[fireisredsir]

yea that's true

i wonder if he originally wanted to be the one not in before he realized his partner wasn't gonna make it

i think if anything that would fit with mala

[fireisredsir]

except for the bit where he criticized my mala townread ig

[fireisredsir]

kinda but idk what he can really do here if he's like always in the poe and it isn't likely anything he says can have much effect on that

i think that would be somewhat annoying as scum

that said i still think nk is most likely just cause he is playing the same way he does as scum and i think there is an element of his towngame that is very clearly missing

[fireisredsir]

as a town in the poe im not annoyed by it but maybe thats just a personal difference

[fireisredsir]

i think I'd be much more annoyed by the gamestate if i were scum

im reasonably confident its in nk/roden, and so that's a win even if people think it might be me too

[fireisredsir]

tbh at the time i thought his nk read was so unbelievable that it must be tmi

ig it could have been he just realized the reasoning was bad but he didn't seem to when I asked about it

[fireisredsir]

like in lake melancholy

fire was not very protown in his voting? he just kind of tunneled on town afair and was wrong. but his thought process was v pure

here it feels like it is designed to look good.

fwiw i am kinda trying to be more of a glue player here bc i stuck to my guns there and was mostly wrong instead of just listening to my townreads

so like yes that was an intentional change

but idk i prob would do the same as scum lol so maybe that isn't helpful

[fireisredsir]

1) i think dats was telling truth about why he isnt partnered with nk15 - sounded like offended caught for wrong reasons dats

i sort of agree with this and is the one thing holding me back from nk15 scumread. not as sold on point 2 since from what I've read (assuming he does have a coherent plan and isn't just throwing or whatever) the thought process from him seems to be that he can't last long in games as scum and will get flipped early, and he's trying not to have associatives or something (not the right way to do it but still I think thats what he's trying). so there's no real reason in that mindset to tunnel datisi after coalition failure since nk is never getting flipped first

[fireisredsir]

even if his play has largely been pro-scum (sorry fire lol)

its ok its true :<

[fireisredsir]

like how does he know unvoting relly is good if he doesnt know relly is town?

the thought process there was less about irrel and more that i did not trust mena at all so i didn't really love him joining that wagon

[fireisredsir]

fire do you have any idea why faker was the nk

well if nk is scum then his mind is an enigma and i cannot predict the reasoning behind his actions

if its roden, idk, you're right it doesn't make a ton of sense. you were pushing a poe centered around roden/nk as datisi partners and he's probably aware enough to know that so idk why he would not just kill you. maybe next level wifom

if its somehow someone else then i still think they'd kill you since people will listen to you and you might find them

like the only person fmpov who has a lot of motivation to make that kill and leave you alive is std. so when it happened I expected roden or nk to push for expanding the poe to include std but maybe they were hoping someone else would get paranoid and do it for them. i was sus of std early but he got townier and im kinda trusting you when you say he is way out of his scumrange so i would lean towards thinking it was a kill to point towards him rather than one made by him. but then like I said it's weird nobody has acted on that

[fireisredsir]

oh

i don't think so, ive never had a reason to look at the account

[fireisredsir]

lmao ok i checked their first game and i see now why you were wondering

kinda funny tbh

now i understand that at least

[fireisredsir]

like the only person fmpov who has a lot of motivation to make that kill and leave you alive is std. so when it happened I expected roden or nk to push for expanding the poe to include std but maybe they were hoping someone else would get paranoid and do it for them. i was sus of std early but he got townier and im kinda trusting you when you say he is way out of his scumrange so i would lean towards thinking it was a kill to point towards him rather than one made by him. but then like I said it's weird nobody has acted on that

oh yea i forgot one more thing about this, it kinda makes not much sense in this world for roden to be as confident as he was earlier in std being town ("mena was tunneled on town"), which is part of why i prodded about that earlier. he would probably want to at least be open to the possibility of std being scum if he was trying to push for expanding the poe. that makes me lean nk

[fireisredsir]

would just be rude to nk them tbh now they're just gonna bully you in the dead thread

[fireisredsir]

but he had something very important to tell us... later!!

[fireisredsir]

My thoughts about Dats:

[The Cute Guy with Green Hair and an Adorable Hat]



I've played 8 games with Datisi, 1 game that he modded, and 1 game we've hydra'd together.

This would make game #9.

One thing that seems to always happen is that this adorable green haired man always manages to scumread me in some convoluted manner[without fail!] [even when he was mafia!] <he thought I was his traitor, he's cute I know>

So I was surprised to find that he figured out I was town relatively early this game; 138.

It's kind of what I want to happen - but it's also like "Wait a second is this too good to be true? How does Dats figure out your alignment that quickly? You're not like that obvtown yet - you were way more obvtown in other games and he was still scumreading you right up till you flipped town so like uh what's going on here"

Now that's a very toxic path of thought to go down for me because it puts into conflict two things I want

A: Dats reads me as town correctly.

B: I get ridiculously paranoid about Dats townreading me correctly.

and like I want him to get better at reading me and being right - I don't want him to think oh I have to fake paranoia or extend a thought process in dealing with her just to get her to townread me. Like I don't want to be needy and ridiculously difficult to make happy - that's not a good feeling.

So like I kind of just slotted him in as town because paranoid thoughts are bad for me and I'd rather think happy thoughts like "Dats is getting better at reading me and he is going to carry me to a win this game because he is amazing"


So I'm going to evaluate his gameplay on the basis of things that have nothing to do with me because I think it would be quite awful for me to scumread him for townreading me and it leads me down a bad rabbit hole. [Also I really like the feeling of being townread by Dats and I don't want him to not townread me in the future just because it makes me think he's pocketing me. I like being pocketed, I am human]


I like his thread presence - he feels like he actively wants to be here (yes I know it's not a very good way to read people but like compared to Spring Fling - I feel like he is a lot more proactive about being in the thread and actually interacting/solving people rather than just going through the motions)

I like his tone - he just feels comfortable and not at all like he's stressed (this is ironic because datisi's townstress is very obvtown and his paranoia is fun to read).

I like the trajectories he's following on each player - they kind of make sense and he takes turns and pays attention to details that I sometimes just skim over.

Lastly I really do like that he keeps trying to pull me into the coalition with him[not just because I want to flirt with him]

I think he knows I'm very hard to mis-eliminate so putting me into a coalition really is limiting his own mislim opportunities and making it harder for himself post-coalition failure and I'm not sure why he would want to do that? It really does feel like he wants a coalition that will work.

Maybe I'm just like super pocketed cuz I'm dumb but I really do want to believe he's town here :<

"Post a really convoluted post to cover up the real reason - TMI.

how could this be tmi

[fireisredsir]

how will i be able to fool you all with my secret scum skills when i roll scum if you don't even think im obvtown now smh

[fireisredsir]

i should probably be more critical of pushes on me when im town tbh cause as scum its gonna look weird when i don't do my usual town response of "yea ok that's kinda fair" and roll over and die

ari ur scum >:[

[fireisredsir]

I think you know what it is

but it's too stupid to type out and I'd be embarrassed if I did >(-_-)<

ok you can be embarrassed now

[fireisredsir]

also bloodhail ive listened to 3 of your pfp albums now and this one is my favorite

[fireisredsir]

i have bad news for you then

[fireisredsir]

Now, let's look at town!Ari.
Ari is not on the coalition. The chances of the coalition failing increase.
Very bad for town.

this is your whole reasoning? that someone good at mechanics shouldn't be willing to exclude themselves from the coalition?

[fireisredsir]

also bloodhail ive listened to 3 of your pfp albums now and this one is my favorite

hmm wow pocketing much

it would be pocketing if i said i liked them all

bloodhail > skull > sideways suit man

sideways suit man was kinda meh imo

[fireisredsir]

Guys I got malakittens+datisi scumteam in my eye and I can't get it out

I'm not even really advocating that that's definitely the scumteam it's just like... stuck there in my large elephant eye

My trunk is not quite nimble enough to hepl, someone help

hm can you talk about this more

Sure yeah, elephant eyes are a little bigger than human eyes. Only a little, which might surprise you - roughly 150% the size of a human eye. I would have thought bigger but no

And elephant trunks can grab stuff but don't have, like, opposable thumbs, so it's hard to get in there without making things worse

ok well i was kind of feeling like your more recent posting has vibes of "haha look at me i have towny thoughts processes and plans and paranoias" and less so like those things were genuine. like it feels like you care more about projecting that image of yourself than about the things themselves

and that response doesn't really help on that front

pedit: oh no, i'm townreading fire now???

this conversation right here: look at this. this is what i wanted to check. datisi goes from shading fire and suspecting him to townreading him when fire starts attacking irrelephant for his scumread of datisi

think this is just a straight-up pocket

oh this is significant actually I had forgotten about this

specifically bc it came after irrel talking about datisi/mala

maybe he should have left that stuck in his eye

[fireisredsir]

can't be ive never even listened to death grips

[fireisredsir]

tried reading the league of legends game just to get a baseline on fire-scum but didn't get a ton out of it

was a very weird game, don't think it would really translate anyway

[fireisredsir]

im down to vote nk unless anyone has more to talk about

[fireisredsir]

i am concerned by the fact that i feel relatively similar to roden but mirrored

idk if that means he is doing that intentionally or if it means we are actually in the same spot

[fireisredsir]

like i think logically my brain is saying that it should be roden. partly bc i think mala and roden have both acted in a scummy way and bc i think they're viable partners for datisi, partly bc i townread everyone else

but if im wrong and he's town, then i have already kinda accepted my position as next in the poe and so we probably just lose

the point at which i do not feel similarly though and can't really relate to is that i don't think its a foregone conclusion and want to still try to sort things out

[fireisredsir]

can you point out specific things that you think are out of std's scumrange

if i can be more confident in him being town then i will feel better at least

[fireisredsir]

about her having more fire here, or was there more than that? i saw that and wasn't sure i really agreed. unless you were thinking of something else, the main fiery thing i saw was her responding to people saying she lurks more as scum, which i think she could genuinely be annoyed by as either alignment.

looking now ig some of her suspicions and responses to people are stated in a kinda indignant and maybe flippant way which isn't really the attitude she had in dance (my main memory there was her like blatantly trying to pocket people) so maybe there's a point there

[fireisredsir]

but like, you were in that large normal with him as a traitor, right? does his play this game remind you of that one? because i'm skimming that game right now and i think he's night and day between those two games

yea for sure not like that game, but i don't think thats the extent of his range. its also v easy to just be not quite the scummiest lurker in a large, don't think he could get away with that here

[fireisredsir]

ok i did find this which was kinda funny

Subject: Mini 2270: Spring Fling!

i feel townpings on malakittens for possibly dumb reasons, we'll see

considering

i have a probably very horrible reason for a townping on malakittens.

but actually coming from datisi thats maybe more clearing than suspicious tbh

anyway, continuing

[fireisredsir]

but like, you were in that large normal with him as a traitor, right? does his play this game remind you of that one? because i'm skimming that game right now and i think he's night and day between those two games

yea for sure not like that game, but i don't think thats the extent of his range. its also v easy to just be not quite the scummiest lurker in a large, don't think he could get away with that here

in general i think he's, uh, a little bit on the lazy side as scum and what he's shown here is a lot more genuine depth to his thinking, even if he was wrong on menalque it felt like a read he really believed in especially given the extent he was willing to case it. i don't really think stuff like that is characteristic of his scum game at all

like in this game as well a lot of the stuff he says is pretty shallow and he just doesn't have much energy at all

yea ik, but i did feel like he wasn't being a driving force for most of the early game. he was moreso after i specifically called him out as suspicious for that

also i was thinking more of this game: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... %5B%5D=629

where he efforted quite a bit, and i feel like having lukewarm as a partner in a 9p is a somewhat comparable position to what he would be here

i do think one potential difference even with this one tho is that here ive felt like he has spent more time just kinda thought dumping and showing what he's thinking about all sorts of things, whereas in this scumgame he is typing a lot but its more specifically directed towards reasoning behind reads. which does feel townier

[fireisredsir]

i'm not gonna tell you necessarily what i saw, i want you to draw your own conclusions here, but i'll give you what i was working with and see what you come up with

alr after reading some i think the main thing that stands out to me is that as scum she tends to be more interested in playing the social game, whether that's kind of elbowing her way into a block, or acting up mindmelds/being pocketed, etc. town she's a little more independent-minded

this game i think actually more closely resembles her scumgames on that point, but idk, its present in both town and scum games so its not like a strong tell or anything

im also not feeling super confident in my meta assessments rn tho considering i thought nk was like hard in his scum meta for what seemed like a super obv reason to me but that was wrong ):

[fireisredsir]

dunno even the way he bugged me about his read on menalque and seemed despondent that there was another person coming in calling his top scumread obvtown felt very real to me

i think the frustration about people not listening to him felt real as well, and isn't like anything I've seen from when he expresses frustration as scum

[fireisredsir]

well i found his own self meta saying what i'm saying so lol

yes that was in response to me saying that was his meta and that I felt he was matching more scum than town

[fireisredsir]

what i was generally seeing is that she gets annoyed at getting suspected incorrectly as town and that doesn't really manifest in the same way as mafia and i felt more of that here

hmm ok i can kinda see that

[fireisredsir]

i have reasons to townread both of you and am not really sure which are more valid if it ends up coming down to that

its just really kinda hard for me to see either of you choosing the paths that you've taken?

[fireisredsir]

i don't even know who im pushing today

[fireisredsir]

but im guessing you're asking under the assumption that you are flipping today and are town

if thats the case, then if it isn't std, then he prob gets nkd, and then ari votes me, and then bh either ends the game or it's ari and then deciding on that is his problem

if std doesn't die then ill be scrutinizing him carefully to make sure he is town but idk if i would exactly be pushing there

im actually not really sure of a potential scenario where i am going to be the one pushing anyone

maybe bh and ari turn on each other and then i cry in the corner

[fireisredsir]

Can anyone explain why they think I bus Datisi instead of just voting out Elephant and setting up Mena as the next mis-elim?

bc once bloodhail comes in with a scumread on datisi, datisi like almost always dies there? based on gamestate and how people were responding to him, even if he dies first datisi prob flips next, and you would want to be on that early

your trajectory was heading towards irrel until bloodhail showed up, and then you followed him onto datisi

your narrative here is like complete bs actually maybe it is just you

the pivotal point in the game was bloodhail showing up with a scumread on datisi

prior to that, it was likely a irrel/mena 1v1 with datisi going after that

after that, it was likely a bloodhail/datisi 1v1 with some chance of mena happening

you are presenting it as you had the option to either bus datisi or vote irrel. that is totally not how things went down, you never had that option. at the time when you voted datisi, irrel was gone. those were never two things you were deciding between

i still have issues here btw

you did not ever make a choice between voting irrel and bussing datisi

[fireisredsir]

Not sure how this isn't a choice.

bc the first one you say you are leaning towards voting irrel, and the second one is after irrel is gone, and bloodhail has come in with a scumread on datisi

the gamestate has changed significantly between those two, and by the point you made the datisi vote, he was likely to die even if bloodhail flipped first (assuming bh town)

at the time you voted datisi, voting irrel was not an option bc irrel was gone

[fireisredsir]

1] Putting Datisi in "hammer range" doesn't mean anything because Datisi was at 3 votes and skitter/blood hail had both not voted for Datisi yet, Blood Hail obviously has no issue with voting for Datisi and Skitter had unvoted Blood Hail and I kind of doubt she votes for BH after BH offered to self-vote himself off to resolve the 1v1.

2] "voting out bloodhail when he had the chance"

like blood hail wagon at peak was at 4 [nk15, skitter, mena, datisi] - so 3 flipped townies + datisi!mafia. Which means any partner of Datisi's had the oppurtunity to vote off Blood Hail, it's not really clearing if it's something p much anyone can do?

fwiw i think these are fine points and i agree that my datisi vote is not clearing and don't really expect anyone to think it is

i do think my initial reaction to bloodhail's entrance would have been different as scum tho unless i was super confident in my ability to get him to townread me and survive elo (which i don't really think i would be)

[fireisredsir]

my reaction to seeing him was to let myself reset my read a little bit and listen to his fresh perspective and encourage his solve which i don't think i would want to do as scum, id be nervous that he'd catch us

[fireisredsir]

ok looking at my own posts i guess i pushed back more on his datisi read than i thought i did lol

internally at least i was open to it and liked his direction

[fireisredsir]

ok so if you're scum and you're nervous he catches you, then what do you do about it?

idk focus somewhere else maybe and try not to let him be the spotlight of attention

prob bring up mena being inactive or something

[fireisredsir]

like the way I see the game state there

we're at 3-3 Mena/Irrel

me/datisi/you are not voting

Datisi is aiming to vote Irrel because he has a rock hard townread of Mena chiseled in stone.

You're aiming to vote for Mena because your trajectory is that his confidence is unlike KTane because its not backed up by an actual case.

That's fine for a scumteam of you/dats to do atp because its T v T and you it doesn't matter where I end up voting.

But when bloodhail replaces in, locktowns mena right away and votes Datisi, what are you supposed to do atp? You can't exactly switch sides in the 1v1 off Mena back to Bloodhail to chainsaw for Datisi, you're just kind of awkwardly telling him that Mena is the better elim but you can't really convince him.

i think i (together with datisi, probably) make the decision quickly as to whether bloodhail's read is going to have a lasting impact, aka is datisi going to die at some point now. if yes, then let bloodhail convince me asap so that i can be early on the datisi train. if no, then distract and either go all in to try to lim bloodhail or push elsewhere and don't give in to being convinced by bloodhail

my own read of the gamestate was yes, which is why i think its believable that roden could take that path as scum partners with datisi

[fireisredsir]

Not sure how this isn't a choice.

bc the first one you say you are leaning towards voting irrel, and the second one is after irrel is gone, and bloodhail has come in with a scumread on datisi

the gamestate has changed significantly between those two, and by the point you made the datisi vote, he was likely to die even if bloodhail flipped first (assuming bh town)

at the time you voted datisi, voting irrel was not an option bc irrel was gone

You...realize I played a part in that game state change, right?

Datisi was never going to die without my vote and my reads countering his. It would've just been Blood's single vote against Datisi, which he later backed out of anyway when he self-voted soon after. I think it's completely disingenuous to pretend Datisi was in serious danger before that point.

you realize that my point is not whether datisi was going to die that day, right? ive said that multiple times in multiple contexts. i think that as soon as bloodhail shows up with a scumread on datisi, that datisi was going to die even if bloodhail flipped first. there was enough lingering suspicion on datisi out there for that to be p much a certainty imo. and i think that if datisi + his partner recognized that, it makes sense for them to set up best for elo by having a suspicion on datisi as soon as possible

[fireisredsir]

i think i (together with datisi, probably) make the decision quickly as to whether bloodhail's read is going to have a lasting impact, aka is datisi going to die at some point now. if yes, then let bloodhail convince me asap so that i can be early on the datisi train. if no, then distract and either go all in to try to lim bloodhail or push elsewhere and don't give in to being convinced by bloodhail

If you/datisi were capable of making decisions quickly as scum I think you probly elim relly when Mena hardpushes him and you can get them chained rather than wait for the game state to lurch out of your control thru replaceout.

I guess this isn't fair

a town player ragequitting isn't something forseeable. But Dats does have an issue with being decisive when he needs to be and he tends to wait too long for things. I don't really expect a team of you/him to be able to instantly decide on a strategy as soon as blood hail hits the thread.

I think you were probably disoriented and thinking about how to navigate things.

ig if datisi has that issue then its understandable you would think that. i did feel like datisi was going to die at some point p quickly after bloodhail scumread him, and that was why i got super worried about mena bc if bloodhail was wrongtown and it was like mena/nk or something then we probably just lose

i think there's a lot of things that im not very good at but i do think that assessing gamestate and the possible directions it will go especially as it gets later in the game is something im decent at

[fireisredsir]

if irrel dies before replacing out yea it goes to mena next prob

don't think thats true after bloodhail comes in

ofc datisi doesn't roll over but i think he dies

[fireisredsir]

i think between me/skitter/ari there was enough doubt there that if there was a green bloodhail flip after he said his one strong scumread was datisi that it would be enough

i know i would not be likely to go to mena in that situation. i know skitter wouldn't have. ari may have

[fireisredsir]

meh idk maybe im wrong on how things would have progressed

still don't think that you voting datisi is any more clearing than me voting datisi

and i don't really think either are

[fireisredsir]

i think if you look at their play day 2 it makes a lot of sense as them trying to powerwolf the game by mutually townreading each other. they both stay hands off on the irrel-mena fight and make vague pushes at skitter. ari mostly doesn't really consider datisi and doesn't really strongly look for scum in the coalition.

this is slightly a sticking point for me actually, one of the main reasons i started to suspect datisi is that after coalition failure it felt like he was amplifying and supporting ari's push onto skitter while letting her do most of the work, and mostly just being kinda nitpicky about her progressions. it's sort of a strange direction to take as partners, bc it wasn't ever likely to succeed, and draws a lot of attention to datisi. it really just felt like hiding behind a townie to me

[fireisredsir]

the problem with this is it doesn't feel like it's displaying the requisite paranoia - in the large normal where datisi is scum ari was fooled pretty hard by him and i don't really get the sense she'd so willingly throw herself into his arms and not display skepticism, just because she's friends with datisi.

the lack of paranoia is also sharply demonstrated in 1705/1708 - ari offers a rebuttal to datisi's reasons for townreading her and says they're "not very good", but only makes a joking comment about being pocketed by him - it feels like there's no genuine curiosity toward datisi. it doesn't make much rational sense to respond that way - why would she not be more suspicious of him if his reasons for townreading her are not good?

im also not very sure that this makes ari more likely to be scum

i feel like if she was playing wanting to townread datisi but had some lingering paranoia that is more or less how i would expect her to behave

i don't think it makes her more likely to be town really, but i think its not a very strong point for me since that's just kinda their dynamic

[fireisredsir]

ok i think this sequence is really significant so i wanted to put it together to have it in one place

Spoiler: sequence from coalition forming

skitter wants skitt/mena/irrel/std as core and is deciding who else to include, considering one of ari/dats

I kinda think scum is in fire, mala, nk15
Which kinda makes me think i have to include one of ari/dats

would like greater explanation of this please

Which bit? I see no strong reason to townread fire/mala/nk15. That's 3 players, with 6 remaining. If i exclude those 3 i need to include one of ari/dats to get to 5

(And my current coalition i think is exactly pl - fire/mala/nk15 - ari/dats)

skitter considers if i might be town, maybe

ig ari fwiw:
i do understand your point. like rn i'm kinda focusing on the 'borderline' reads and who i can stomach putting in the coalition most easily, and i'm not really focusing on my biggest scumreads at all
but tbf to fire, my biggest scumreads also aren't really in the coalition to begin with, so i'm not super concerned about them at this moment

but if my biggest scumread were someone who was relatively widely townread and it looked likely they would get in, i can understand being v. concerned around said scumread, because from my pov we wouldn't insta-win if they did indeed get in

so like i'm not particularly convinced this is town-fire, but focusing on irrel doens't inherently bother me or make me scumread him

only including these cause i feel like they're kinda towny and may have affected people's read on me in the moment

yes that would be a misinterpretation then and its maybe my bad for not giving you a super clear "your answer is x". but yea that's not at all what i was saying. my answer at the time was mala, but it seemed like there was an implied question/confusion (not just in that quote but in the surrounding context) of "I don't get why you're pushing the people you're pushing" so i wanted to explain why i was focusing on irrel despite him not being my strongest scumread

ig cause you said "strongest scumread that you would 100% not want to be on the coalition"

and like

strongest scumread was mala

but strongest WANT was irrel, and the reason why my wanting/caring/focusing was more on irrel was cause he was more likely to make it in, so my level of caring about pushing him out was stronger. no need to care about pushing mala out bc she was already out. but that had no effect on my scumread, just on my level of focus

-snip spoiler of my posts on irrel-

main points summarized:

1) the big thing is that it feels like he cares more about looking towny than about actually doing pro-town things

2) his responses to peoples suspicions about him have felt slimy to me, like he is dodging the point and trying to make it about something else in a way that feels deliberate. he has done this multiple times

3) i think his tone in responses as well has felt like he is frustrated that he isn't getting as much credit as he expected to from doing things that look surface-level towny. this frustration seems more likely to come from scum than town to me

4) his positioning in general and the way that he chooses to engage with different people seems dependent on what benefits him rather than coming from a genuine town solvy mindset

5) not really a key point, but i did read some previous games and he is well in his scumrange, and he is capable of making towny-looking progressions and being proactive as scum, so i don't think people should be townreading him for that despite his complaints otherwise

std:

ok i haven't really played much with std but i did meta read a bunch of games when i was trying to sort him in large 238 d1. i felt like i got a decent feel for how he approaches games differently as town vs scum, and thought that he was likely scum that game, so that's why i TA checked him n1. unfortunately he was traitor so i got a false inno

i feel somewhat hesitant to even try to justify this read bc i don't think im going to explain it very well but whatever

basically i feel like there is a certain energy that he has when town, like he is generally excited to solve the game and also just... wants to be there. he usually has reads that it feels like he really cares about, or even if he doesn't exactly, he still is trying to work with people and help move the game forward

as scum he has fine read progressions and etc and still can joke around and whatnot but he lacks that town energy. he seems content to be a background character and pop up occasionally with a Good Post, and yet not really drive things. when i read posts that he makes as scum i picture him making a face and being like "ugh do i have to do this".

here is a recent scumgame that i feel is illustrative:
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... lect[]=629
and a towngame:
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p13237692

these were just the first ones i saw but i think p much any of them would fit imo

i think his iso this game looks way closer to his usual scumgame. ive thought that since like his first 3 posts so maybe im confbiased idk, and maybe he's just lacking energy due to non-alignment-related reasons, but idk its still the read i have

if anyone who has played with him more than me thinks that this take is way off then im willing to reconsider

skitter says she's kinda liking me more

My wife sprained her ankle today so I'll be taking care of the kids more this week so I'll be posting less, @everyone

oh no i hope she's OK!!!

~

also i'm kinda liking fire more now idk
i'm worried i'm townreading someone i shouldn't be

ari has a similar reaction (she was pushing me previously), says i might be right, and offers to sheep skitter

mb fire's just right i dunno now :<

i'll be happy to sheep whatever you decide to skitter <3

brain feel mushy

also would prefer we get a decision in b4 we get 3 days on the clock.

skitter says she's thinking about adding dats to her core

eaving BOTH my scum partner and myself out of the coalition just KNOWING it'll get me so widely townread I end up in the coalition even though one player is tunneling me

tbf i don't think this is crazy - even if you leave yourself out of it now:
- there's enuf people townreading u that u might get it anyways
- approaching deadline you could very easily be like 'uuuuuhhhhh we need a coalition and a lot of people are healing me so i'll add myself'

it's not like you have no chance of getting in it

pedit my brain is mushy too >.>
i think rn i'm healing me/irrel/mena std and am thinking abt adding dats
is there anyone who should be there that isn't / do you strongly oppose to any of these?

ari doesn't oppose that

is there anyone who should be there that isn't / do you strongly oppose to any of these?

I don't have any objections to that.

I think you probably have a better read on mena than I do.

skitter continues with that, and then offers to put ari in

maybe. it's been a while and he's fooled me a few times
but i'm getting Good Vibes rn at least

and i think i townerad him more than i townread a lot of other people here

man this deadline is kinda short

i'd ideally probably want some more time to ruminate but given that we're running low on time given everything we need to do i'm leaning towards me/dats/irrel/std/mena
idk who i'd even go after if that fails tho

pedit @ari

on reflection, i could probably add ari on the condition that if she doesn't like literally solve the game and is alive in elo she gets flipped
(again sorry <3 i have to cover my bases!)

ari wants to consolidate, and doesn't want to be in (in this case dats is being included though)

I have some thoughts on where to push if your coalition fails skitts.

I think its probly best to consolidate and push something through rather than keep waiting?

best case scenario maybe your coalition works and we just win

ok HEAL: dats

if this is wrong let's blame the short deadline

on reflection, i could probably add ari on the condition that if she doesn't like literally solve the game and is alive in elo she gets flipped
(again sorry <3 i have to cover my bases!)

hehe I might actually prefer being out of coalition so if it fails I can be conftowned since mala is probly almost always scum here

near the end, ari is def acting how she prob would if she were partners with datisi -- pushing to end the day on skitter's coalition with datisi in it, saying that she herself wants to be outside of it. but i still think that at the point at which she says she will sheep skitter, skitter has not decided who she wants to add to her core. and i feel like there was at least a chance that she would decide that i had gotten towny enough that she would want me in over ari/dats, both of whom she's suspicious of. she didn't, and ended up putting datisi in, but ari can't know that for sure at the time she says she'll sheep.

does scum ari take that risk? maybe she is just confident that skitter will stick to her earlier plan and put in one of ari/dats. but idk, it just seems like a big gamble to me when it isn't really necessary to do so

[fireisredsir]

to be clear i do think it could be ari there's just points of the game that im having trouble seeing from that perspective and thats holding me back

[fireisredsir]

speaking of ari offering to sheep skitter, im also curious if this is meaningful to you at all (skitter and ari both town here):

Spoiler: from previous game

Subject: Micro 1052: Lake Melancholy [END]

Also i just want to generally say i wasnt really a fan of the overall tone from the past few days

I promise to be extremely nice and sheep you regardless of what this flips

I feel like i swapped ceph and dwlee at some point
I'm probably going to have to figure out if ari belongs in there too i guess

I'm town because if I was scum I would never commit myself to sheeping you

It is terrible for thread control

and this game, ari offers to sheep skitter, and then:

Which is a pretty stupid thing to do if you've dropped Dats!scum from the coalition and you're sitting with Irrel/Mena/STD all town in a coalition and you're just trying to fill the last spot no?

I am literally ceding all form of thread control to you and offering to stick behind with the people I scumread. If at any point you decide hey I want to add ___ to my list wouldn't I pretty much be going along with it there?

not actually very sure what to make of this, i kinda townread it since i was unsure if she would mirror herself that hard as scum but maybe thats dumb

[fireisredsir]

while reading 1195 again i can kinda see your point how if she were scum with datisi it would be important for her to discredit skitter there

but like i also kinda think she successfully discredited skitter there? like i still agree with the post, especially noting that after the earlier progression i quoted (which she talks about), skitter then removes dats, and ari is still willing to sheep her. i think at that point its very believable that i could get towny enough to make it in

[fireisredsir]

as time goes on i've been getting more paranoid it's ari. i think she's really convincing though, and i feel i have more reason to tr her than sr her. i'll try to take a closer look.

meh, those arguments never do a lot for me unless it's some very specific tactic but i think there were plenty of reasons pushing me in that spot would be akin to suicide for scum

what is this referring to? idk how this follows from that quote

[fireisredsir]

ari what are your thoughts on bloodhail's alignment

[fireisredsir]

do you think you would do that? i thought you were all about flipping people who are easy to flip

[fireisredsir]

bloodhail (or std, or whoever, idc) do you have any thoughts on the coalition forming, and how ari offered to sheep skitter at a time when it seemed very possible that skitter would want to try to leave ari/dats out, and most likely would if she found another town?

do you think its not accurate or that im missing something? do you think she does take that gamble as scum? do you think there wasn't as much risk as i think there was?

[fireisredsir]

hmm ok, i did feel like skitter was warming on me but it's a good point that even if she does get there, it might not make it to 5 votes from others with me/std in

it still seems... unnecessary to me? but maybe she would be bold

[fireisredsir]

well i was assuming that if you said you would sheep whatever she decided that you would do that, and she at the time had skitt/irrel/std/mena and was looking for a 5th

[fireisredsir]

i hoped it was nk/mala

my heart thought it was irrel/std

i also thought std was possibly paired with nk or mala idr which one or maybe both, but that was less likely to me

[fireisredsir]

when skitter says this

why don't you try to get into the coalition?

idk what this means?

i wanted to be in the coalition by people thinking i was town enough to be in the coalition and i think i tried to scumhunt solve which imo showed my towniness

im not sure what you would expect me to do, ask skitter "pretty please put me in your coalition"?

[fireisredsir]

also can you show me when you decided NK15 = scum?

because skimming your iso with Nk15 in F5 shows only mentions of him being town prior to coalition failure

i am not really sure if it showed up in thread, and i don't think i would say that i had him as scum, just that nk/mala as the team was the highest hope i had for the coalition to succeed. and enough people were sus there that i felt reasonably ok with hoping they were right

i do have a bad habit of just using nk which is hard to search for, but i looked and i don't think i talked about him v much cause there wasn't much point to expressing thoughts on him since he wasn't getting put in at that point

[fireisredsir]

i mean she says she has 4 names she wants...

if you think those 4 names are good, why don't you ask her to make you the fifth?

i just cannot fathom doing this tbh

thats just not me

i hoped she would but im not gonna ask for it

[fireisredsir]

ok yea i want skitter/datisi/ari/menalque

fine with whoever is consensus of me/irrel/std in the last spot

HURT: all
HEAL: me, ari, dats, irrel, std

i am ok with this, like ideal world for me would have me in for one of irrel/std and maaaaybe mena for the other one but eh its ok

i guess i did say this which is prob the closest you're ever gonna get

[fireisredsir]

ok yea i want skitter/datisi/ari/menalque

fine with whoever is consensus of me/irrel/std in the last spot

HURT: all
HEAL: me, ari, dats, irrel, std

i am ok with this, like ideal world for me would have me in for one of irrel/std and maaaaybe mena for the other one but eh its ok

i guess i did say this which is prob the closest you're ever gonna get

quote fix

[fireisredsir]

no, at that point i think the solve is irrel/std, but i don't really trust my own reads enough to push for that very hard.

i was relatively confident in my townreads of skitter/dats/mena, slightly leaning town on you + thinking if you were scum it was with one of those three. so nk/mala is also left as a p viable solve

and the 5th like yea i want it to be me but if most people think that irrel or std are townier than me then im find with compromising

[fireisredsir]

like idk why you expect i should have a progression on nk15 at that time? nothing i say about him is going to have any impact on what coalition gets formed. if it fails with him outside, we're not focusing him yet anyway. if it succeeds with him outside, yay we win. ig i could be partner hunting, which i did do some of, but there wasn't a lot of point in talking about it in thread, i just had my own notes

my goal in coalition phase isn't really scumhunting anyway unless i have a scumread on someone who is widely townread. this is like the same thing we talked about earlier where you were confused about my irrel push and me saying that i wanted to focus on him due to him being townread

[fireisredsir]

displaying a progression on nk15 would be strictly performative and so i probably would have made more effort to have one as scum actually, so this is a towncase tbh

[fireisredsir]

i don't know what to tell you then, bc i would

im not really the type of player or person to push hard for my own reads, i prefer to compromise, especially currently after ive had a run of games where my reads were significantly below average

[fireisredsir]

i did want myself in over them, i feel like that was extremely obvious and didn't need to be stated? i was just saying that if consensus finds them to be townier than me im not gonna throw a fit about it

[fireisredsir]

i would like roden to return and give thoughts before eliminating anyone

and also std

rn i think it's more likely to be roden than you and so would prefer to eliminate there but if bloodhail and/or std end up disagreeing with that, then i may be willing to trust them on it

i think its v unlikely i vote for std or bloodhail

[fireisredsir]

i did notice that while ari's frustration at times did feel genuine, it was often when assumptions were made about what she would do if datisi were town. i don't really want to read into that side of things too much/guess about what was real or faked bc uncomfy but i can see a world where she would be frustrated in that situation as scum. idk

datisi seeming frustrated that people (skitter i think?) read the early interaction between him/ari as weird overall instead of just weird on ari's side does kinda line up with a world where they were aiming to leave ari out

happy birthday!!

[fireisredsir]

i think that describes most of my town games sadly

[fireisredsir]

in the past i had more faith in my own abilities

i do think ive done a p good job of figuring out when im wrong and who i should listen to instead, i don't need to be the hero for us to win

[fireisredsir]

i should have listened to skitter more early tho i regret that ):

[fireisredsir]

thats, uh... what?

[fireisredsir]

i'm tired

fair ig it just seemed weirdly threatening

[fireisredsir]

i don't think i would be very happy with voting ari over roden without hearing more from roden

[fireisredsir]

no i was scumreading him for his earlier play

im not gonna townread him for looking like he's given up when he's most likely going to get eliminated at some point

actually his current actions probably have the best chance at getting him out of it bc people always want to try to find the sneaky clever scum when it gets to endgame

idk im not really sure if he's more likely to be scum at this point but even if he's not i want him to actually play

[fireisredsir]

do you think that me casing roden further would be useful? i can if you want me to. i don't really feel like there's any reason i should be convincing anyone of who is scum here or that you should expect me to?

i would prefer to be right today because if we're not right today then there's a decent chance that we lose. having roden playing i think would help us decide what is right today

if everyone else just wants to move on then ok i won't hold the game hostage, but i didn't really get any sort of feeling like std or roden were finished with the day (unless roden is just scum who wants out)

[fireisredsir]

to be clear on the direction im looking at this from, im trying more to find town than i am to find scum. if i wanted to i could find reasons why any of you could be scum, but i don't think that would be helpful. right now i feel like there are things that you, roden, std, and bloodhail have all done that look to me like things that i wouldn't expect you to do as scum partners with datisi in the situations that you were in, and im trying to figure out which of those im wrong on.

std and bloodhail i feel more strongly that the downsides to the action they have taken outweighs the potential benefits that they could get.

bloodhail for example doesn't really get that much towncred for bussing bc everyone here knows that he is capable of it, so it doesn't really improve the position at all even heading into endgame. i thought his latest threat thing was sorta weird but whatever he just wants to end the day probably.

std im kinda trusting bloodhail that he's out of his scumrange. i mostly agree. i don't really think he needs to vote datisi when he does if he's scum, and i don't really see it as very likely that he would either.

these two i won't vote today and would be unlikely to vote for tomorrow.

with you, ive talked about most of the things that are holding me back. i still think the potential benefits to you sheeping skitter at the time that you did are not enough to offset the risks. it's possible im wrong on that assessment. there's other points but that's the most significant one for me.

with roden, the biggest reason is that he is unlikely to succeed in endgame by bussing datisi. in this case, however, i feel like the benefits do outweigh the risks. (as an aside, i also feel like his response to bloodhail's entrance was sketchy, saying that their reads aligned and voting datisi when previously the closest he had gotten to suspicion on datisi was saying that there was likely at least 1 scum in datisi/ari, and also previously saying he was likely to vote irrel). it's exactly how i would expect scum to behave if they decided datisi would have to die at some point. so the question to me mostly just becomes would they make that call? maybe he thought he could expand the poe enough to avoid elimination. maybe he thinks he can self-vote and AtE his way out of it. im not sure. i don't think it's the most likely thing in the world, but compared to the reasons that i have for why everyone else is unlikely to be paired with datisi, i feel my reasons here are weaker. i also don't think his behavior this day phase is any closer to how i would expect town to behave than how i would expect scum to behave.

[fireisredsir]

:<

i will vote if std says he's ready to move on

[fireisredsir]

prob won't really need it at all but

semi v/la until monday night

will still pop in and will still be probably caught up honestly cause i doubt y'all are gonna suddenly start spam posting but i will be not around for larger chunks of time than usual

[fireisredsir]

intent, i guess

any final thoughts from anyone

[fireisredsir]

VOTE: aristeia

[fireisredsir]

busy today will be home later tonight

don't plan on voting any time soon, prob roden but will not be hasty and will reread/talk/etc once i have the time