i can elaborate on it, i'm a little less enthusiastic right now. I really think if we had somewhere near an equal measure of suspicion on Barros and Moratorium, it would be a really good option. But I'm becoming more and more certain that Moratorium is telling the truth (most of my issues have been believing Moratorium, because i def. think Barros is suspicious and cupcakable)
But anyway, this is how it works. We leave Moratorium and Barros alive. We instead lynch some other player that we think is suspicious. If you think about it, there is only a 25% chance that there will be anymore investigations this game (1/2 chance of doc/roleblocker set up * 1/2 chance barros is roleblocker). So, if we're in that other 75%, there is no loss in this, the day 3 lynch would have to be the same thing: scrounging around for someone suspicious.
Then that night, the scum would have a big catch twenty two. Normally they would be able to NK tonight with no drawbacks. But if the nightkill the detective tonight, then they "waste" their nightkill and let us lynch the fake detective with absolute certainty.
If they decide to NK a non detective, then both Barros and Moratorium will give investigation results. They'll either have a result, or have been roleblocked. If they were roleblocked, we lose a little bit. There's a 50% chance we are in the roleblock setup, in which case we would take a loss: the loss is where we could have killed a roleblocker day 2, and earned free investigations.
In summary of the way the odds work out on all that, there is a 75% chance there would be no real penalty for delaying the lynch a day. The remaining 25% however, is golden, a big payoff: that's the dream scenario Moratorium talked about, where a doctor saves the detective everyday as he investigates people on night 2, night 3, and probably night 4.... if we got that, it would be pretty difficult to lose.
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At this point i feel that the only reason I'm not voting for Barros is that my mind could be changed by more discussion. This is a change in position for me, before i was so undecided i would have let other people vote before i did because i was uncertain. Now, the moment i approve for voting to occur, my vote lies with Barros.
I suppose i should explain reasons for the shift. One reason is what Moratorium pointed out, Barros probably only innocented me to win a very vocal friend. I thought he would probably clear a scum, as noobish as he seems, but Moratorium's explanation makes sense.
Second, i liked the last post i got from Moratorium, with the big bolded paragraph in it. The consistency with his original claim, and the explanation, kind of gave me brighter feelings towards him. Before i was kind of upset by the emphasis on numbers that so quickly gave way to the logic he said he was moving the game away from, but now i see it's more like a safety net.
And for some reason, whenever nothing gets said, i just gradually begin to shift towards "Barros is scum". I dunno why. Maybe it's in a psychology textbook somewhere.
Cupcake: Barros
(that's not a vote mod)
@Moratorium: I'm happy you unvoted. I posted that suggestion before i knew of Barros' cop claim actually, now that he actually talked about killing himself (which counts against him pretty strongly) this is more important.
@Capricious: Do you still want me to the excersise? I've kind of underprioritized it, but it is on my to do list.
@Barros: Are you mafia roleblocker?
@guy0: What do you think about the nightkill? Which of Moratorium or Barros do you think would have done it?
"Let us say that you are right and there are two worlds. How much, then, is this 'other world' worth to you? What do you have there that you do not have here? Money? Power? Something worth causing the prince so much pain for?'"
"Well, I..."
"What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?"
You are no fun at all.