Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2012 2:09 am
oh here's a good question. Nuwen, ask the mod some questions, including if there is an SK in this game.
You seem to be under the impression that if Nuwen flips Town, we get another Day. Provided there is not a Mafia 1xVig (which would be you) lynching Town here means we hit the end of the line regardless of whether there are one Mafia or two. I continue to be dazed at how you don't seem to grasp this.
I really feel like you're trying to sell me this Nuwen lynch with a remarkable amount of specificity, Yos.
↑ Yosarian2 wrote:Yeah, nice try. I could have bought charter if you could have found a plausible way to explain away the ttracker thing; I could even buy you suspecting me to be a SK, but there's no way in hell town-Nuwen would actually think I'm scum with furcolow here, or that I'm mafia who claimed my own kill at the start of day 2 as some kind of stupid gambit, or that the mafia killed Elmo right after how day 1 ended.
↑ Nuwen wrote:
Hiraki protected Vi on a night there was at least one missing kill (two if you think Yos is a town vig, in addition to there being a third party+scum). When Hiraki flipped town, I realized that a couple things could be happening that might require a full/fresh reread.
The thought process:
1. Vi was a scum kill N1 (protected), Yos did some EXTREME gambiting as SK - claiming out a shot on vig fodder, shooting after claiming vanilla-ized.
- This was actually my first working assumption, which is why I'm
very, verysurprised to see Vi currently alive, along with everything else. Scum wanted him dead N1 - if he were that problematic, why would he be left alive as protect-conf-notscum? Mafia in this situation would either have to call him the target of the SK kill (which just implies knowledge of night shots, can't be used as an angle) to get him lynched or...? There's no good answer to this question.
He shouldn't be alive unless he controls the mafia shot or there's more going on at night than what's been claimed.
But for completionism, I did move to
1a. Vi was an SK kill N1 (protected), Yos is telling the truth, scum kill was ??? and ??? happened to it. Shos' vest claim could fill in the ???
- The SK thinks Vi is scum too! Help me fucking lynch him and maybe we'll play games tomorrow.
This pretty much implies Shos as the BP SK, and he would have had to absorb the mafia shot.This is where I believe the Martin flavor is important and worth reading from as many non-Shos sources as possible.
Following me yet?
The first situation makes it highly, highly unlikely that Vi would still be alive as town (in fact, there's a LOT that shouldn't be alive right now). I think the only explanation for this is a cross-kill onto an SK's BP (Vi -> Shos? Maybe Vi -> Yos, but I'm beginning to think he's been telling the truth), and then a no-kill or something failed on the third party's shot. Do you see what I mean?
There just aren't many complete explanations based on what powers have claimed out, unless Magua has some VERY VERY novel information to add to this mix.
I want Vi to claim next, followed by Magua.
↑ Yosarian2 wrote:
Ok, fine, I'll fullclaim, but this is the very last inch of rope you're getting.
The way my role was set up, I lose my ability (get suspended from the police force or something) if I kill a town, and Elmo somehow flipped town despite all logic and reasoning. So yes, I am no longer a vig.
↑ Nuwen wrote:
Here's the part that everyone seems to think is a scum slip. The people screaming Shos-is-an-SK seem to be ignoring the fact that:
N1:
Hiraki Protects Vi
Shos is bulletproof
Yos claims a shot on Elmo
Katsuki claims no action
Vi was shot by scum, an SK, orboth, orneither.
Shos was shot by scum, scum, or scum, or nothing.
In order for you not to be lying here, there aretwomissing kills. You can't think this is a result BOTH anti-town factions targeting Vi, because thenVi wouldn't have spent so long among your top scum reads.We'll cross off "both shots -> Vi" right away.
So what else happened inYos-mind, if Vi didn't absorbbothshots?
1. ShosSK absorbed the scum shot. Shos' shothadto absorbed by Vi
2.Both shots hit Shos, making it impossible for him to be one of the shooters. We're cross "neither" off Vi's list.
↑ Yosarian2 wrote:Yeah, nice try. I could have bought charter if you could have found a plausible way to explain away the ttracker thing; I could even buy you suspecting me to be a SK, but there's no way in hell town-Nuwen would actually think I'm scum with furcolow here, or that I'm mafia who claimed my own kill at the start of day 2 as some kind of stupid gambit, or that the mafia killed Elmo right after how day 1 ended.
So let's play. You're obviously not opposed to playing "why would scum shoot the x," so I expect you to likewise entertain my questions about mafia shooting Shos N1. Shos tunneled onto UN D1 and didn't do anything remarkable - didn't claim, wasn't lurksy enough to be a random PR shot in the dark.
You've also said that I'm scum because I "slipped" and claimed a shot on Vi - but in Yosmind, scum couldn't have shot Vi D1.
This is the post where Yos/Charter seem to think I've claimed scum. It's the same type of process as the one I went through above to figure out what's going on in Yosmind (with one dead doc known, no Magua claim yet).
Uh, no.
Put these two scenarios together and there's no possible Yos perspective that fits with 0 kills N3. Scum and the supposed SKcross-shot again?; Scum -> Shos, SK shoots Vi again? How does that fit with Nuwen being MAFIA claiming a shot on Vi, if Vi had to have been shot by Shos to account for the other missing kill?
Yosarian has been trying to write them off as nonsensical for most of the day, probably hoping that if one person calls them silly mob mentality will kick in.
He was content to reiterate very passive scum read on BOTH Nuwen and Vi all day until I started directing votes onto Charter and called him the likely buddy. That's when Nuwen stopped being "silly, maaaaybe town" and started being " brilliant scum pulling out all the stops." Not a coincidence.
I want everyone to GO BACK AND READ THE EXCHANGE BETWEEN CHARTER AND YOS REGARDING THE "FLAVOR INVESTIGATE" CHARTER CLAIMED OUT. I believe this is scum distancing by claiming results on each other; the gamestate at the time had most people assuming tracker cleared -> Charter, hence Charter can "clear" the N2 shooter and BOTH of them are less likely to become targets of this game's swath of PRs tonight.
↑ Yosarian2 wrote:
Ok, fine, I'll fullclaim, but this is the very last inch of rope you're getting.
The way my role was set up, I lose my ability (get suspended from the police force or something) if I kill a town, and Elmo somehow flipped town despite all logic and reasoning. So yes, I am no longer a vig.
"Gosh de-darn, I guess I'll fullclaim for no reason. Yep! I'm vanilla. Nothing to see here."
Yosarian even baits the track on Charter, probably knowing that he himself will hold the gun N2.
"Please some PR target/clear my buddy while I submit the kill over here from claimed vanilla-land."
the other parts of your post just fail in my opinion, since you really cannot explain what happened everywhere.
you're assuming things WAAAAY out of league - that both scum and SK targetted same one, or that mafia has roleblocker and blocked SK, or that there is another doc, or that there's another BP, godfather, whatever.
2) I don't believe there's an SK. My reasoning here is a little circular, but screw it, I'm sticking with it. If shos is a BP SK, then mafia know they have to lynch him. So far, none of the people I suspect of being mafia (Vi, Nuwen, charter) are actually on board with lynching shos. So they're not afraid of him.
Nuwen is not my prime choice for lynch today. Aggression is a towntell. Paranoia is a towntell. Yos can go on about how Nuwen's been trying to fast-talk, but Yos is either accidentally or deliberately misinterpreting what Nuwen says about things -- eg, Nuwen didn't say Vi was shot N3, Nuwen said, "Why wasn't doc-protected-N1-Vi killed last Night?" which is entirely different and in keeping with Nuwen's previous thought processes.
Nuwen wrote:
Vi either has an SK-ish vest or controls the scum kill. I want it dead NOW.
Gee, it would've been nice to get an answer about whether Vi was shot last Night, though...
In terms of a lynch, I want Vi dead. All of the possible pairings I see include Vi-as-scum, and my current operating theory is that scum tried to shoot shos last Night, not Vi.
Yosarian2 wrote:Your current theory is that scum tried to shoot the guy who claimed bulletproof on day 2? The scum would have to be complete idiots for that to make sense.
↑ Magua wrote:Yosarian2 wrote:Your current theory is that scum tried to shoot the guy who claimed bulletproof on day 2? The scum would have to be complete idiots for that to make sense.
Counterpoint: Your current theory is that the scum tried to shoot Vi-a-possible-lynch-candidate-over-Zar-the-tracker?
At least shos was in the category of "people unlikely to be lynched" during N3, unlike Vi.
seriously, you think that after claiming BP days ago scum would target me?Magua wrote:
In terms of a lynch, I want Vi dead. All of the possible pairings I see include Vi-as-scum, and my current operating theory is that scum tried to shoot shos last Night, not Vi.
If I can't get Vi lynched, charter would be the second.
Yos-lynch is bad. shos-lynch is bad.
what do you think about charter?
Not really. Why in the name of Louvre are you defending incredibly scummy people in such incredibly implausible ways?Yos2 2052 wrote:You do realize he's missed most of of the nearly impenetrable pages of setup speculation today and has probably just skimmed the thread yesterday while trying to catch up, right? Him missing your claim of a post restriction and such is pretty much what I would expect, irrespective of alignment.
:/ I was counting the lynch twice for some reason. *wherf*Yos2 2052 wrote:There are 7 people left alive. If there are 2 mafia and no SK left, then if we mislynch today and the mafia kill tonight, tommorow there will be 3 town and 2 mafia. Not great,
Not necessarily. Scum Vigs are coming into vogueZar 2053 wrote:- Mafia + Extra Mafia Kill? <- Really? Sounds really off-balance.
Well actually.Magua 2062 wrote:3) Doubt there's an active roleblocker in the game, because I would expect Zar or charter to be roleblocked if so.
Well actually.Magua 2067 wrote:I'm 99.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999% that one, if not both scum, are in Vi/Nuwen. Since both Vi/Nuwen jumped on that charter lynch so fast it hurt, I don't believe he's a partner. His play has sucked, his reads are nonexistent, he hasn't really done anything with his role, but those are all just antitown things, not scummy, and the heat he's drawn on himself for most of them seems like the thing that scum would avoid.
We lynch someone.shos 2068 wrote:seriously, how can this progress any further, we have all the info already claimed.
↑ shos wrote:
I have no idea what you're talking about. link me to specific posts please.
Parama, Polyphème Desroches, was killed. He was a town night guard.
Vi wrote:Hey Magua. Watch this.
Vote: Nuwen (L-1)
etc.