Titus-Cheeky has already been ruled out, and now HH-Cheeky is out too. Thisn makes it 5-1 in favor, btw.
Also forgot to mention LUV can't be with any given two of HH/Icon/pisskop, being the none that submitted the proposal
Posted: Sat Jul 20, 2019 7:05 pm
by callforjudgement
Posted: Sat Jul 20, 2019 7:06 pm
by callforjudgement
momo has been prodded.
Posted: Sat Jul 20, 2019 7:30 pm
by AP
Amd here is what I have against pisskop (well, Saudade.. whatever): @given time, pops says Saudade is proddable 1168. 93 minutes later HH changed their vote from for to against (the proposal had Saudade as Inactive). 34 minutes later the mod posts a VC, then a minute later says Saudade has been prodded, but only 26 minutes later declares Saudade is being replaced, indicating Saudade had either PM'd the mod or posted "elsewhere" requesting replacement.
It's not unfeasible that Saudade had requested to be replaced in the scum PT and HH reacted to that by switching the vote in hopes the new replacement would be more active and land a more important role. After all, Timid+Inactive on the scum team is suicidal of a sort. The mod came in, did his work in the main thread and sent out the prod before checking on the scum PT to see the replacement request (or went to his inbox and saw the PM from Saudade, but then that wouldn't justify HH knowing he'll get replaced soon, so that's why I can't say it's a damning evidence on them being scum together).
Oh, btw.. while checking on Saudade's posts I came across this:
In post 710, Datisi wrote:These are my reads so far, not saying all scum is definitely in there or that they're definitely correct. Besides, I don't think I'd be completely surprised if it came down to be
LJ/Sau team
with some genuine insults.
Very impressive that you made this observation on day one, Datisi! Luckily the one person in this game who knew that
Saudade usually hardbusses his partners as scum
(B&W) wasn't around after our flip to inform all of you about that.
It means nothing at this time, but it could prove beneficial down the road to know the bolded.
Posted: Sat Jul 20, 2019 7:37 pm
by AP
Also pops switched her vote from for to against soon after.
My current leading 3 scum teams are: pops+momo+pisskop, HH+pops+pisskop & HH+pops+momo (does not include pisskop).
However, my top single SR is momo, followed by HH and pops only comes 3rd.
In post 2021, Gamma Emerald wrote:Btw since you've been rereading how many total people have voted for a proposal that had Titus as CQ?
I'm not going to re-reread, but the Creature can only bge scum with any of Hidden, apthet, Iconeum & you, so I guess these are the four that didn't vote for her lynch as of 1020
In post 1169, Hidden Happiness wrote:Oh boy it seems I missed more then I thought if one of you pissed off my partner. (Don't worry I already got somewhat briefed.) I'm gonna VOTE: against
I still feel like Cheeky is playing way too idgaf/careless to be scum. I remember her being a lot more timid (lol) as scum. Why do people want to vote her? Because she's lurking? Also the fact Luv is the one who gave this feels blah to me
~Maria
There's a line between "dgaf" and "not doing jack all". Honestly your argument against lynching Cheeky makes her look scummier. UNVOTE: for now but I might vote For this one
Now consider this: Gamma is scum with Saudade and is voting AGAINST the proposal that gives Saudade Inactive. Saudade is being replaced, and -hopefully- pisskop will be more active, and Gamma unvotes and considers voting FOR giving his new buddy the Inactive role. Does this even make any sense to you? No? That's why I am ruling out the Gamma-pisskop duo.
And that makes it 4-5, but Icon is unlikely scum with Titus, and since the team of Icon+apthet+Titus was unlikely anyway I am ruling it out, thus Titus one and only remaining valid scum team is with HH & apthet (and even that has apthet as very likely town).
Yeah so I don't understand this, it kinda pings me on the Saudade slot
I already checked. He had an upcoming exam. it's NAI.
Btw, this is till true, but he did post about 90 minutes after he got replaced here, so I dunno. (Internet is already too slow for me to go dig more posts from him, so you can either take my word for it or check on it yourselves)
Vote this down quickly for this game's damn pace
We are not D1 lynching apthet that's beyond dumb.
You know what? pops may still be town after all.
Posted: Sat Jul 20, 2019 8:30 pm
by AP
With my proposal downed I can only rule out Gamma-apthet & Cheeky-apthet as scum duos.
On another note:
In post 1449, apthet wrote:To anyone who has played with Titus before, can you comment on how Titus just vanished after people started doubting her for a lynch and is now coasting on radio silence? Is that even remotely feasible to come from town?
THIS, ladies & gentlemen, nullifies the last scum team that could have included Titus. Creature is 99% town here (100% unless I made a mistake that no one else noticed either)
Posted: Sat Jul 20, 2019 8:40 pm
by AP
In post 1560, Hidden Happiness wrote:1-shot Gladiator: Nero Cain
Inactive: Almost50
Day 5 Innocent Child: Vecna
Inventor: popsofctown
Day 3 King: pisskop
Macho: Oversoul('s slot?)
Miller: momo
Odd-Night Motion Detector: Hidden Happiness
Neighbour: Titus
Neighbour: Gamma Emerald
Timid: Iconeum
Night 1 Universal Backup: Lil Uzi Vert
Vanilla: apthet
Compulsive Quitter: CheekyTeeky
HH wouldn't give their buddies Timid & Vanilla, would they? Check out who they picked for Inventor, King & Miller though. *Shrug*
Posted: Sat Jul 20, 2019 8:51 pm
by CheekyTeeky
In post 2054, AP wrote:However, my top single SR is momo, followed by HH and pops only comes 3rd.
Yet pops is in all 3 teams.
Posted: Sat Jul 20, 2019 8:57 pm
by Gamma Emerald
Math cares not for feelings
Posted: Sat Jul 20, 2019 9:11 pm
by AP
And that sums it up, ladies & gentlemen. Here we are with this current proposal. The one thing I would suggest to do now is to go back and delete the teams that have your strongest TRs, but I guess we're never going to agree on the same people.
OK, let me try this: Does anybody scum read Jingle (or even have a reasonable doubt the slot is town)?
Posted: Sat Jul 20, 2019 9:24 pm
by AP
Time for me to go get some sleep. I think I've posted enough for the whole player list that the mod will not prod anyone for the next 48 hours.
Posted: Sat Jul 20, 2019 11:00 pm
by Hidden Happiness
So you think I spent all day obstructing my momo-partner's myslynch on Titus? That's mystifying.
I don't think Jinglesoul is scum right now, no.
In post 1810, Vecna wrote:pure mindblend. he says the things I think so often, even when its some of the more out there type of thoughts. Things that dont occur to scum to talk about.
I've been flipping back and forth on pops for this whole game. Would appreciate if you linked some of those things (maybe we saw the same things, though).
In post 1815, AP wrote:@Creature: Vote AGAINST. At least give me hope. I'm @L-1 with you, Jingle, apthet & pisskop not voting, and that's even assuming the mod will count Nero Cain's (Gollum) vote against.
Ugh... maybe it's the alt gimmick, but I have literally
never
seen this reaction coming from scum on the chopping block. I know I sound like a broken record but out of the current mainstream options I really do prefer Titus (and I think Cheeky is better than AP for that matter).
Spoiler: Yet another example of popsofctown being a really cool person that I wish I could locktown so that we can just be friends.
In post 1829, popsofctown wrote:I don't keep up with my W/L record but if I did I would probably count all replace-outs as losses and I would definitely treat all "replaced out because I anticipated a loss"es as losses
But really what does your record matter anyway
The idea of someone maintaining a record is also concerning because there's a family of strategies including but not limited to trust telling that are more effective for winning groups of games than they are for winning each game as though it's your last. But the latter is far more interesting and more fair to teammates and opponents.
IDK offtopic rant.
In post 1861, Vecna wrote:These are always the moments i hate. When the gratification of finally seeing a flip is so close.. yet it might still take forever to happen.
What do you think about AP's super focused / defensive reaction to the wagon?
Does anyone know if he's done this before?
Another town post! These replacements are really shaking things up.
I think the best one on pops was when he was talking about pisskop just afyer replace inand picked up on that post that changed his mind on the slot. the way he worded it, I dont think scum ever spots that and then posts about it the way he worded it. Theres been a bunch of other ones that also resonated strongly, but that was the best example at the top of my head. I could go back and try to remember which ones they were, but seeing how most of it is a while back now, it might not sound too great.
Momo had an ok post early game as well while I was still doubting, although I feel my reasons for the read differ a bit.
About AP, I really dont know if this focussed defense should sway me/us. I think it can definitely come from both scum and town, and what stuck with me is the comment that someone made that AP50 really uses his charisma as scum to survive. After reading that, i view all these posts in that light, and it might make me a bit biased. But, the post you quoted specifically seems to fit really with charismatic scum trying to charm his way to survival. The same in the appeal to Cheeky. Saving the slot to pocket it because scum A50 feels public opinion turning against, realizing he needs to get people on his side. It felt a bit manipulative to me. Very smart if thats what he did. But we should see through it. The danger ofcourse is that if he is town, this will be construed as a very dickish thing off me to say. But I feel it is a realistic enough option that it needs stating.
Also, ive played quite a bunch with town A50, and my meta analysis would be that he has never been this intense. he also has never been so quick to agitate, and I do not remember him snapping so much at people and having so many snide remarks. Can also be caused by other reasons, maybe im just that annoying, you can make your mind up about that one.
the exact team is Cheeky+pops+pisskop. Not totally ruled out, but far less likely.
And -just to speed it up a little- on page 2 Nero & RC posted, so I remembered the Nero-Vecna and RC-momo fights. I don't think Nero & Vecna van be scum together nor do I think momo-Creature can be scum together either.
P-edit: 1- I am crazy! You already know that. 2- I have some free time to waste. 3- I already listed all possible teams in a spread sheet, and now am working on eliminating some.
Eliminating any RC connection because he faught someone is a bad decision. This exact scenario played out before in a game with mathblade, where he also replaced out and they were also scum together. funnily enough titus also replaced the slot there.
In post 1931, Jingle wrote:AORN, I'd probably prefer switching Ico/AP and You/Momo.
Why would you give miller to a scumread?
Are you saying that Creature is a good cop target?
I would actually. Everyone thinks theyre good at reading creature, most keep being proven wrong
Posted: Sun Jul 21, 2019 1:56 am
by Vecna
In post 1968, AP wrote:So.. I say momo+HH+Icomeum isn't a thing based on the proposal momo submitted. Does anyone object?
Timid+Inventor is possible (maybe unfavorable for some, but considering the state the game was in I'd say Gladiator+Timid+Inventor would have been acceptable for the scum team to get).
In short, if HH is scum with momo then their third is NOT Iconeum, Suadade or LUV. Scum wouldn't propose to get Gladiator+Timid+Vanilla/Inactive/Macho. Does anyone see different?
Also Gladiator + TWO of Vanilla/Inactive/Macho is not likely. Agreed?
If youre going down this route.....
trying to predict scum logic is hard (and dangerous if let to influence important decisions)
Priority: give us roles that dont cause suspicion if were not nightkilled early
Priority: try and assing important roles to people we want to nk early (probably big overlap with 1).
Priority: Reduce town power by denying key PRs
Priority: Make proposals to blend in with popular opinion
All of these are viable scum strategies. All require different reasoning to cut out connections. Especially the last one.
Icon voting for momo's proposal makes him not scum with Titus for sure. Anyone disagree? Do you think Icon would try to bus the slot so early? (P.S. VC is now 2-0 in favor)
I will never agree with such logic. early bussing is a thing, especially assuming that a first proposal in a game like this is never (hardly ever) going to get passed.
In post 446, popsofctown wrote:VOTE: Vote: Against willing to let the perfect be the enemy of the good here
pops making it 4-2 makes something like pops+Cheeky+Vecna/Oversoul/apthet/Gamma virtually impossible. Other unlikely combinations include pops+Oversoul+Vecna/Gamma/apthet & pops+Gamma+apthet
In post 601, momo wrote:Titus/Hidden Happiness/CheekyTeeky scum team?
I am breaking my "process of elimination" to point out something I've noticed while catching up. momo has been SRing HH all game. He even suggested id RC flipped scum they were next. Yet, not once has actually pushed them for real. It seems as if he has been counting on flipping Titus/Cheeky to clear HH in the future, and here it is so convenient to suggest the scum team to be the 2 "most likely to be lynched slots at the time" + his own scum p for the 1-in-3 rule to apply.
Take this with a grain of salt and put it on the back shelf for now, but I suspect the scum team to be HH+pops+momo from this reread.
@Jingle: If you have the time, would you care to ISO the 3 of them simultaneously and "see if you see what I see"?
And this post is again where my skepticism rears its ugly head.
Its not like Momo was the only one voicing that thought. I know that it was a town mindset that I also strongly shared at that point.
The fact you apparently dont ever had a similair thought during that situation might be a lot more telling about your allignment than momos.
So what is your opinion on the HH/ creature connection? Im asking about this point in time you were analyzing, and how it is now.
