Mafiascum.net

Seacore wrote:

I'll be leaving you guys in the capable hands of Faraday for a little while. I'm off to go get married and then have a nice tropical honeymoon. Should be back in fortnight. Good hunting.

Congrats.

More votes on Axelrod and SSBF, plox.

To make sure there's a clear-cut first/second for the day.

Continuing from my large posts yesterday –



Greyjoy only candidates - Macavitar, Muki
Potentially either team candidate - Mina, Unsight, Axel, CSL



Lannister – Unsight, CSL, diddin, mina
Greyjoy – Muki, Axelrod

A good deal of overlap in these groups. I’ve already made a fairly substantive assessment on Unsight so I’m not going to re-cover that here. As I stated with my Day 2 analysis I am moving Macavitar to the back burner.

Miku I’m going to look at from a Greyjoy interaction perspective (with Percy and Raivann). diddin I’m going to review from a Lannister interaction perspective (with xvart, dana, and IDI). Axelrod, mina and CSL will be reviewed from both perspectives.



First off yes I did butcher Miku as Muki in my posts yesterday. Sue me.
ISO 5 – Supports Percy over xvart and DripHydra for Hand. Given how many others raised Percy for similar reasons I’d sum it as a null-tell. This post might actually serve more as a Lannister-tell in that he specifically votes for Percy (who had 1 vote to raise when he made it) over xvart (who had 3) with little differentiation in reasoning. More likely to be ‘protecting’ a scum-partner from the Hand scrutiny.

ISO 8 – Responds to a Percy softball question (coaching?) with some light suspicion, which he doesn’t follow up on, for Raivann’s slot.

ISO 11 – Votes Raivann for inconsistency on Kleedrac / Budja.

ISO 12 – Further elaborates on preference for Raivann over Kleedrac / Budja.

ISO 13, 18, 19 – Futher pressures Raivann.

ISO 20 – unvotes Raivann after the fake-vig claim.

ISO 23 – A little bit of rolefishing in interactions with Rifka I’m not a fan of.

ISO 30 – Answers another softball lob from Percy.

ISO 31 – A bit of potential buddying here from Percy to Miku (regarding his accusations against DripHydra’s inconsistent Raivann stance).

ISO 40 – Some more light interaction with Percy.

ISO 42 – Interaction with Locke regarding his scan of Percy is a little suspect.

In review of his ISO I’m not seeing strong evidence that Miku is likely Greyjoy. He pressured Raivann very consistently Day 1 (up until his claim). His interactions with Percy fall into what mina has mentioned earlier and I am calling ‘the friend zone’. Light interactions with very little pressure.





migwelloni – No interactions
kinetic – No interactions
diddin –

ISO 1 – states a scum read on both dana and SSBF with no support. Favors SSBF as more likely scum and drops and ISO case his next post.

ISO 6 – Softly supports dana lynch (I’d still rather lynch SSBF or dana) while posting no reasons or support for dana suspicions. Raises thoughts of classic fence-sitting here.

ISO 9 – ISO on Mac. Interestingly still has no direct interactions or questions to dana.

Day 2 ends with nothing no interactions with any Lannister and his ‘support’ for dana’s wagon.

Day 3 ends with no interactions or even mentions of xvart.

In review his soft ‘support’ for dana’s wagon while never questioning him or interacting with IDI or xvart make me suspect he’s a likely Lannister if any still are around. Reading through his ISO from KOL Mafia (where he was scum partners with Richard, Zhero, and Valeo) shows a different playstyle. He bussed Richard hard Day 1 and later votes for Valeo in later days. He has minimal interaction with zhero and valeo. Perhaps his play here is a reaction to the game results? Not definitive in my eyes.





Hayker – No Lannister interactions in 5 posts.

CSL –

ISO 0 – Initial reads put Percy as Town, Raivan and dana as scum. Never follows up on Raivann / dana reads Day 1.

ISO 6 – Depsite haven’t not mentioned him directly at all Votes for CMAR over his other two scum-reads. In time context this is before Raivann had claimed.

ISO 7 –“ I have a bigger scumread off of CMAR right now. Raivann can wait until tomorrow.” No questioning of either player to this point that would illuminate why this is the truth.

ISO 8 – In response to Mina says he would be happy with either CMAR or Raivann lynch. What happened to dana?

ISO 9 – Says Raivann’s claim is not clear (obvious) and that if CMAR flips scum Raivann is clearly scum. Reads as fairly confident that CMAR will flip Town and thus attempting to clear Raivann by proxy.

ISO 12 – Vote for Kleedrac / Budja Day 2 after they were NKed.

ISO 16 – next mention of dana in ISO after initial scum read. Here he simply HOS’s dana (the top wagon of the day)

ISO 17 – expressed willingness to vote dana as the deadline approaches.

CSL ISO 19 wrote:@ Mina: I went from Raivann to CMAR because a lynch > No lynch.

Why I voted SSBF and HOS'd dana? dana has done nothing but talk useless crap, but is at least trying to go the other direction. SSBF is MUCH MUCH worse.

The answer to Mina doesn’t seem accurate as he never voted for Raivann.
Further fence-sitting on dana.

ISO 22 – Puts dana at L-2. Late bussing?

ISO 24 – Claims he sees AtE in a dana post.

ISO 25 – Claims with minimal wagon.

Somewhere near this ISO CSL gets stabbed and loses his vote / powers.

ISO 29 – Offers to ‘sacrifice’ himself to Day 3 lynch if dana is lynched today. Attempt to earn town cred when he knows dana is scum?

ISO 37 – Refers to Percy as a Town read and congratulates ‘whoever’ shot him. Potential ‘congratulate the doc’ style post.

ISO 42 – Claims 37 is a result of not reading the thread.

In review theres little interaction here with either side. The manner in which his initial scum-reads on both Raivann and dana are not followed up on and his lack of general interaction with ANY know scum lowers my overall scum suspicion. I would expect if he were either side he would have been more aggressive with his Day 1 play for whichever scum he would not be partners with. I’m leaning on disinterested / poor Town play.





ISO 2 – Statement that Raivann isn’t obv scum yet.

ISO 13 – Large post comparing Kleedrac / Budja to Raivann. Says Raivann is worse of two but will not vote for either until he ‘finishes his review’. His next string of posts deal with a case LMP put together on him. Never questions either Kleedrac or Raivann.

ISO 17 – Votes for CMAR. No mention of either Kleedrac / Budja or Raivann. Notes that CMAR has 7 votes to Raivann’s 6 (they would have been tied before his vote). In context this is well before Raivann’s claim.

ISO 20 – States Raivann has 12 votes so it is claim time. Does not state any intention to vote for him. Laying the groundwork for scum-partner’s fake claim?

Axel ISO 28 wrote:
Raivann's death restores my faith in the order of the Universe. At least, if nothing else, it still remains true that a scum who claims Vig. is torching himself. I think it also establishes (if it wasn't the case already) that the scum have false-claims provided to them, as I doubt that Raivann claims Beric on a stone cold bluff.

This statement regarding Raivann’s death strikes me as a ‘Congratulate the vig’ style post. SSBF caught flack for saying that Raivann’s GF flip was a good thing. This reads very similarly.

ISO 29 – The sudden interest in dana (after no mention at all Day 1) and accompanying case reads as possible Greyjoy supporting Percy’s early push. In context this is the fourth vote on dana when SSBF has three.

ISO 31 – further pressure applied to dana.

ISO 42 – states that dana’s lynch is inevitable based on end of day approaching.

ISO 44 – Suggests Percy as a good candidate for the free scan along with a few others.

Axel ISO 46 wrote:I also note that I Doubt It himself referenced julien's "case" against SSBF in his very first post of Day 2 - in fact encouraged others to seek it out. So I suppose I have to acknowledge that the "Lannister" team could have simply been trying to set up SSBF with that kill.

Pretty strong evidence in my mind that Axel isn’t a Lannister. I highly doubt that he would specifically link IDI (who was under little scum suspicion) to a frame attempt on SSBF.

ISO 63 – Labels xvart as a Town read.

In summary – little interaction directly with any flipped scum. His strange behaviour regarding Raivann has been pointed out previously. His early vote on dana and ISO 46 indicate to me that he isn’t a Lannister.





ISO 3 – Questions Percy and Raivann (well his slot).

ISO 4 – FOS on dana for sheeping. No follow-up in the near term on this. Distancing?

ISO 11 – Questions Percy about his raise of xvart. Questions me about my raise of Axel and posts a quote from dana doing the same while not questioning her directly.

ISO 12 – Asks for scum meta from Percy.

ISO 13 – Votes Raivann without significant interactions with him. Promises more details later.

ISO 14 – Questions Rivka about her beliefs on IDI’s Benmage case.

ISO 16 – Questions Raivann regarding information from the previous Mini and dana regarding a post towards Raivann.

ISO 19 – Some strong questioning of Raivann.

mina ISO 22 wrote:Leaving aside the replacement fodder, I personally think vezopiraka (although his play makes him pretty much unreadable), Raivann, and the Migwelloni/Kinetic slot is scummier. And I have issues with Rivka, Benmage, I doubt it (his recent post was really wishy-washy), Kleedrac to a certain extent, Cow, and danakillsu. Agreed that Richard's current inactivity after he wriggled out of the lynch is annoying, though.

Mentions suspcions of IDI with no previous questioning or followup … just ‘suspicion’. Reads as distancing.

ISO 24 – Questions Percy about the Kleedrac / Budja and Raivann wagons.

ISO 25 – Question to dana about a previous post.

ISO 28 – Large analysis post on Percy regarding previous scum games.

ISO 29 – Favors Raivann over a CMAR or Kleedrac / Budja lynch.

ISO 30 – First appearance of xvart interaction. Does not question xvart but piggybacks on a xvart comment re DripHydra.

ISO 37 – Apologizes to Raivann after his Vig claim. Fear as Mafia that Raivann as Vig might hit her? If so heavily indicates she can’t be Greyjoy.

ISO 41 – Suggests that Raivann’s best shot at vigging is CSL or diddin / Kinetic.

Mina ISO 42 wrote:You know, since CMAR is a revealed bulletproof and so many people are deadset on lynching him, lynching him is better than no lynch. If people are going to turn on him anyway, might as well get a flip on him today. But to be honest, I feel as though he's town.

Town shouldn’t be pushing for a Town BP to be lynched. Especially given the ease with which the Vig claim by Raivann was accepted.

ISO 44 – Another interaction with xvart that is non-questioning regarding CMAR’s claim and breadcrumbing. Suggests that kinetic / diddin is a likely buddy if Percy flips scum.

Mina ISO 45 wrote:Percy, I'm curious. What gave you that townread of xvart? You held onto it even after he was inactive for a while. I'm asking because I find xvart hasn't been as townish as he was in the mini. I also find that although he hasn't committed scumtells, he doesn't seem to have much passion or conviction. He's just a giant null.

Questions Percy’s read on xvart as Town. States she doesn’t share the read but has not questioned him at all. Distancing?

Mina ISO 46 wrote:One point against Richard is that Loras hasn't claimed yet.

Why should Loras, the player who has the kill in the Triggered Scenario, claim? That’s not a Town thought process as it would lead to a likely NK on Loras before Richard died (which ended up happening anyway).

ISO 47 – Suggest four vig targets for Riavann (Budja, Vezo, Kinetic / diddin, and CSL). Further pushes for Loras claim.

ISO 48 – Attacks the dana wagon for poor logic and because dana is “not the brightest bulb”. Futher pushes CSL in dana’s place.

ISO 52 – Further attempts to dismantle wagon on Dana (using proper logic that dana isn’t likely buddies with Raivann).

ISO 52 – Questions xvart as to whether he feels dana and SSBF are Village Idiots.

ISO 54 – Quotes an AtE post by dana as ‘sounding Town’. Also contains a defense of her own claims that she is ‘playing poorly’ made by Percy and Locke. Further meta / claim support to not lynch dana.

At this point in the ISO we are into Day 3 and much of Mina’s posts revolve around the Kingsguard info and her back and forth with Cow.

ISO 73 – Discussion with xvart about the potential kill flavour issues and supports xvart’s assertion that CSL’s reaction to the Percy vig is scummy.

ISO 92 – Asserts at N1 that xvart ‘didn’t look all the Pro-Town’ in suggesting he not be part of the Kingsguard. Yet had no interaction of significance Day 1 with xvart. Distancing in the QT?

In summary – the interaction with Percy and Raivann make me doubt that she has any chance of being a Greyjoy. The lack of interaction with xvart and IDI (despite several times suggesting they are suspicious / not Townish) strengthen my feeling she is a potential Lannister. Here push Day 2 agains dana’s wagon is a double edged sword. I find generally Town are more likely than scum to argue against a scum lynch, but there is heavy WIFOM involved.

What is my take away?

THere are strong candidates for scum of both affiliation. I’d rather be looking for Greyjoys at this point as opposed to Lannisters as I’m not certain the Lannister faction wasn’t finished last Night.

Of those likely to be a Greyjoy Axel is my most strong read on that account.

I’d rather he and Unsight be lynched today instead of SSBF.

Since there is no support for Unsight at this point I’m going to commit my vote to

UNVOTE: Unsight
VOTE: Axelrod

Responses to comments –

Unsight wrote:I wish people would stop making analyses that rely on me being scum. I've already done everything short of word for word quoting my role PM and it's not a scum one. The possibility of me being scum doesn't exist, so planning around that is wasted time that could be going toward lynching SSBF and MagnaOfIllusion.

More lack of scum-hunting and pointless “I’m Innocent” statements. I don’t get why the pressure has flowed right off you after yesterday.

Mina wrote:Personally, I prefer looking at partner interactions to vote count analysis. So for example, Mikujin is almost certainly not a Greyjoy because of his interactions with Raivann, so the fact that he coincidentally fell into a category of early dana voters is irrelevant.

As you can see the VC analysis was a starting point for my interaction summary made today. And the fact that Miku fell into both potential Greyjoys pools made it worth my time to ISO him.

Mina wrote: For example, why are you assuming the Greyjoys would all be early on dana's wagon and not on SSBF's? To them, a dana and SSBF lynch would be interchangeable, now that we know SSBF wasn't a Greyjoy. I know Percy himself said he thought that early dana voters were likely to be Greyjoys (and I find it a Greyjoy tell that you stumbled upon this same theory, since you could have discussed pushing this in your QT). But I highly doubt he'd say something like that if BOTH of his partners were early dana voters. He gets no town cred for indirectly steering town's attention their way.

Where did I say all the Greyjoys must be early? I didn’t. I said that if we want to find one of Percy’s partners that is the best place to look.
I'm not looking to cover every possibility. I wanted to dig where I thought there was most likely scum to be found.

Mina wrote:Also, why didn't you use the same reasoning from D1 (that people who weren't on most of the popular wagons are more likely to be scum) for your Day Two analysis?

Because both Days are very different. Day 1 featured multiple strong wagons, several of which we know to be of differing alignments. Day 2 featured 1 dominant wagon and a strong secondary wagon. Applying the same principals of VC analysis to days that were very different in make-up would not be a good analysis method, IMO.

UNVOTE: SSBF
VOTE: Axelrod

Anxiety killed the Day.

^Hammered before a claim. I will be voting CSL tomorrow garunteed.

Ah shit. I knew I forgot something.

You moron. You utter fucking moron.

And I was finally going to have some time this evening to follow up and ask Axelrod about his reaction to Mikujin's post. That might have told us everything.

CSL, did you even MENTION Axelrod before the wagon on him grew?

What the hell are you talking about, anxiety? There was a week and a half left in the day!

That's it. I don't care if Axelrod flips Greyjoy roleblocker (which he has a high chance of doing). My vote will be on CSL tomorrow, barring any huge revelations. If you are town, then you might have singlehandedly lost the game with your antics.

Seriously, you don't realize just how stupid that was.

MagnaofIllusion, I want to trust you after all of that partnership analysis post (although maybe I'll respond to a few points in my defence tomorrow). But I'd like to hear a similar analysis of MacavityLock tomorrow. My most paranoid worst-case scenario right now, if Axelrod flips town, is that Mac and MoI are the last two Greyjoys. Also, did you realize you were putting Axelrod at L-1 a week-and-a-half before the deadline?

You wanted to know why I've played a terrible game? It's not just because of the lack of activity, or because of my opinions consistently blowing up in my face. It's because I mentioned to CSL that Faraday was looking for replacements. If town loses, it'll be on my head alone.

Are you fuckin
Fuck.

There is a greater

EBWOP: I was typing that on my phone, and had trouble scrolling down, so I didn't realized I'd left in those last lines (which were half-started sentences that I forgot to delete).

I don't actually have Tourette's syndrome, I swear.

Also, in hindsight, my last post came out as harsh. I'm sorry. Town or scum, CSL didn't deserve that.

But tell me right now why you hammered. Did you know that was the hammer vote? What did you mean by "anxiety"?

It looks a lot like you were afraid that your counterwagon might pick up steam if Axelrod wasn't hammered immediately.

Apology accepted Mina.

Despite what my last two votes conveyed to you, I did not know that was the hammer. I have problems with anxiety.

I would've been afraid, had I known that was the hammer.

Chapter 8 - Varys

Varys scrambled aboard the row boat, strong hands roughly hauling him inside with the grace of a sack of potatoes, well, a sack of potatoes with soaked robes.

He clung to the side of the boat, looking at the docks as the boat drifted further away. One more boat remained on pier and there was an argument breaking out. Harsh voices drifting along with the smoke, "You're not welcome on this boat, scum." Suddenly, before a reply could be made, somebody in that boat shoved it free of the docks and the current carried it quickly away. Two silhouetted figures could be seen on the docks. One turned towards the flames, dropped to his knees and prayed. The other pulled off his helmet and howled at the skies like an animal.

Varys knew, then, who would be found in the charred wreckage of the city.

Thoros of Myr

and

Rorge

were dead.

Axelrod - Thoros of Myr - Doctor - Dual Lynched Day 4
Super Smash Bros. Fan - Rorge - Bulletproof Serial Killer - Dual Lynched Day 4

Night 4 has begun, 72 hours to get your actions in.

Final Day 4 Vote Count

SSBF (3) - Macavitar, Unsight, RichardGHP

CSL (2) - Thor665, Super Smash Bros. Fan

Axelrod (7) - Locke Lamora, diddin, hasdgfas, Mina, Mikujin, MagnaOfIllusion, CSL

Not Voting (1) Axelrod.

I fail.



At least we got rid of the serial killer.

CSL wrote:I fail.

Vote: CSL

At least we got rid of the serial killer.

THERE IS NO PRO-TOWN REASON TO DO THIS. I ALMOST WANT TO LYNCH YOU RIGHT NOW FOR IT.

Uh, look who, especially WHAT, I hammered without a claim.

CSL wrote:Uh, look who, especially WHAT, I hammered without a claim.

You just don't get it do you? No matter what your role, you are playing against your wincon? If you are town, what good would it be if we wasted our lynch on you?

Like I care. I'm going to end up being lynched anyways.

I could get past hammering the doctor but stuff like 2116? WHAT THE HELL.
AtE and deliberately playing against your wincon. I'm really voting you out of rage but I suggest you replace out if you plan to just give up after one bad hammer.

Wow. I actually thought you were going to lynch me for accidently hammering the doctor.

Times have changed.

Ok everyone, it's time for some numbers.

Currently there are 9 players in this game. Assuming one Lannister and one Greyjoy scum still alive, if we mislynch and there is no crosskill, the game will be cut down to four town versus two scum. Not the best situation. Thankfully, I consider 3 people in this game confirmed town. Hasdgfas is mod confirmed, Thor is essentially confirmed due to his vigging ability (though there is still a small possibility he is Mafia Assassin) and Richard is nearly confirmed due to the Loras flip and the unlikelyhood of scum being able to trigger a venge kill.

This is for reference:

2) Mina- unclaimed
4) MacavityLock-unclaimed
6) Unsight-claimed Ser Davos Seaworth, Onion kinght (Vanilla Townie I presume)
7) Paranoia Thor665- claimed Robb Stark, day vig.
18) Migwelloni Kinetic diddin- claimed The Hound Sandor Clegane, Vanilla Townie
19) Hayker CSL- claimed Maester Luwin, Vanilla Townie
23) RichardGHP- claimed Renley Baratheon, Vanilla Townie who triggers a Ser Loras vengekill
24) DrModem hasdgfas- unclaimed, MOD CONFIRMED town
25) MagnaOfIllusion- unclaimed.

I am betting one of the vanilla townie claims (Unsight or CSL) is fake. Also, i would suggest any role with information that could help us out should claim now.

diddin, what are your opinions on the people who aren't 1) clear, 2) Unsight or 3) CSL?

Such as Mina, Macavitar, MoI?