Mafiascum.net

Okay. Just saying...accusations of flailing have no significant correlation with scum lynches.

I'm not paying enough attention to this game to say any more.

↑ Psyche wrote:Okay. Just saying...accusations of flailing have no significant correlation with scum lynches.

I'm not paying enough attention to this game to say any more.

You should either remedy this, or replace out.

↑ Code_X wrote:

↑ The Mini-Librarian wrote:Not interested in a Kdowns wagon. There's much better options out there for a lynch.

Why not?

Lynches I like better than Kdowns right now:

FakeGod
Shotty
-gap-
Junpei
scooby

There's just way too many people I'd rather lynch than Kdowns right now.

↑ Lady Lambdadelta wrote:

↑ Psyche wrote:Okay. Just saying...accusations of flailing have no significant correlation with scum lynches.

I'm not paying enough attention to this game to say any more.

You should either remedy this, or replace out.

Not in a good position now.

(So how bout that summary?)

↑ Psyche wrote:Flailing, I've found through statistical analysis, is more of a rhetorical accusation used by tunnelling players to discredit defenses than it is an actual scumtell.

Thank you for your valuable insight into the game. You die next.

ZZZZZ lynch shotty please

↑ HezLucky wrote:

↑ Psyche wrote:Flailing, I've found through statistical analysis, is more of a rhetorical accusation used by tunnelling players to discredit defenses than it is an actual scumtell.

Thank you for your valuable insight into the game. You die next.

I hope you'll be able to do better than that.

Can you tell me why Junpei is scum please?

shotty is being replaced and I'd like to see what he/she does. A shotty lynch is lynching an empty slot. The fact my biggest scumread (TML) and absolutely useless probable scum (Benmage) want him lynched only makes me think I'm more and more right.

psyche also scumclaimed in 2103

Short on time at the moment, but someone asked me what I thought about people I said were on the same team voting each other. The answer's quite simple, in that it's making me doubt my reads; most of them have two or three of each other in their scumreads, and the teams aren't making sense to me at this moment. I'm short on time and will have to think things through when I have more, but still, I *might* be wrong on one or two of my reads.

To the point where. .

...I'm not sure where to vote.
kdowns is probably my second-strongest, shotty my third, FG's fourth or fifth, Junpei's the other, and TML's the weakest sixth. But all of these reads need updating. I'll get back to you on that shortly.

Actually.

Let's do some NK analysis.

gunny was killed, obviously, for being confirmed town. So it's a scumkill.
Khan was nearly-universally considered town, being logical and a strong player, which is pretty much 98% guaranteed to be a scumkill. Meaning two anti-town factions. But more on the Khan kill later.

Antihero was killed, because when you look at his attitude in hindsight, it's pretty freakin' obvious what he was softclaiming. Since we know there are two scumkills from last night, there's no chance this is a vig; it has to be another faction taking him out. But assuming it wasn't his softclaim which killed him and it was his reads, I can't go by the reads gunny gave, as the scum wouldn't know about those. All I have is this.

Scum: rack, Fake God, Junpei, firestarter, drmyshottyizsik
Null (scummy): scooby, psyche, pine

Obviously, rack and Pine are both town, but note that he has FG, Junpei, and shotty all as scum. These scumreads probably won't be changing any time soon.
But also important are the Firestarter/OGML, Psyche, and scooby scumreads, which I need to take into consideration.

Vijay, on the other hand, wasn't an obvious PR. And unless the OTHER scumteam guessed his masonness based off of Antihero but still chose to kill him figuring the other team'd go for Antihero, it's FAR more likely he was killed for his reads. He was quite suspicious of the rack wagon in general, so again, there's probably 4-5 scum on there.

Think about it, we've got 2 weeks till deadline and we have 8 people just chilling on Rack. It seems like people can get away with coasting on the Rack wagon because saying "herpderp he not posting, he sucks" is enough scumhunting.

I'll need to check out who the 8 on rack's wagon as of that post (812), but note that there's also this.

Junpei. I had him as scum, but because RedFF was a fairly hard target my read improved to probscum.

Obviously, Junpei can't be scum on both scumteams, but still, both masons expressed in-thread suspicion of him, and he WAS one of the hardest pushers of the Pine wagon, which rack found quite scummy. On to Khan and looking at where the rack wagon stood at that point in time.

While Khan's last moments were a flurry of Seacore hate, he does have a jab at psyche worth looking into. Was also here. But before the Seacore push, he was all-over Junpei. And had been the entire game. (His entire ISO from that point up to his switch onto Seacore is pretty much devoted to Junpei.)

Other notable reads of his are the scumread on Nero and the weak scumread on kdowns's slot.

rack (8)- Benmage, The Mini-Librarian, Firestarter,

Kublai Khan

, Lady Lambdadelta,

drmyshotgun

, Maxous, GreyICE

The wagon at the point Vijay called it out. Problem is, other than TML and maybe-Firestarter, this wagon at the point described is made up almost entirely of townreads. Which of course can only mean one thing:

I have a townread on someone I shouldn't.


I'm piecing things together in my mind at the moment. Basically, though, I'm looking at Nero, kdowns, Psyche, Junpei (Khan), FG, Shotty, Firestarter, scooby (Antihero), kdowns, DV, and TML (myself, mainly). 11 names, 6 slots; got some work to do.

↑ Nero Cain wrote:psyche also scumclaimed in 2103

"Scumclaimed." Sure.

So...a summary, anyone?

[Benmage, The Mini-Librarian,

drmyshotgun

, Firestarter,

Kublai Khan, Pine

, Lady Lambdadelta,

Candy Corn Vampire

], {NihilisticNinja, Psyche}, (mastin2, Maxous, DV).
[Voting]{Voted}(Interested).

rack (11)- Benmage, The Mini-Librarian, Firestarter,

Kublai Khan

, Lady Lambdadelta,

drmyshotgun

, Maxous, GreyICE,

Antihero

, Nero Cain, FakeGod

rack (13)- Benmage, The Mini-Librarian, Firestarter,

Kublai Khan

, Lady Lambdadelta,

drmyshotgun

, Maxous, GreyICE,

Antihero

, Nero Cain, FakeGod, Junpei,

Pine, Antihero

Pine (5) - Maxous, DeasVail,

drmyshotgun

, scooby, Psyche
Nero Cain (3)- The Mini-Librarian,

Kublai Khan

, Junpei
Junpei (3) - HezLucky, Lady Lambdadelta, mastin2
The Mini-Librarian(1) - Nero Cain
redFF (1) - Code_X
Firestarter (1) - redFF
drmyshotgun (1) -

Pine

mastin2 (4) -

Pine

, Junpei, DeasVail, Code_X
Pine (3) - Maxous,

drmyshotgun

, scooby
Junpei (3) - HezLucky, Lady Lambdadelta, mastin2
Nero Cain (2)- The Mini-Librarian,

Kublai Khan

The Mini-Librarian(1) - Nero Cain
Firestarter (1) - redFF
DeasVail (1) - Psyche

Pine (4) - Maxous, scooby, The Mini-Librarian,

Kublai Khan

mastin2 (3) -

Pine

, Junpei, DeasVail
redFF (3) - Code_X, drmyshottyizsik,

drmyshotgun

Junpei (3) - Lady Lambdadelta, mastin2, HezLucky
The Mini-Librarian(1) - Nero Cain
Firestarter (1) - redFF
DeasVail (1) - Psyche

mastin2 (6) -

Pine

, Junpei, DeasVail, StrangerCoug, Benmage, Code_X
Junpei (4) - mastin2, HezLucky,

Kublai Kahn

, Lady Lambdadelta
Pine (2) - Maxous, scooby
redFF (1) - drmyshottyizsik
drmyshottyizsik (1) - The Mini-Librarian
The Mini-Librarian (1) - Nero Cain
Firestarter (1) - redFF
DeasVail (1) - Psyche
Not Voting (5)- Firestarter, FakeGod, kdowns,

drmyshotgun

And here's where things get interesting.

Next page, redFF and Psyche join the Pinewagon. , Benmage, and TML join in rapid succession as well.
SC and Nero begin a mini-wagon (pun intended ) on Librarian.

Page after that, and DV are next to join.
Psyche gets off of Pine, going to TML, while Nero gets off TML for Junpei. This takes us to the next votecount...

Pine (7) - Maxous, scooby,

Kublai Kahn

, Benmage, The Mini-Librarian,

drmyshotgun

, DeasVail
Junpei (4) - mastin2, HezLucky, Lady Lambdadelta, Nero Cain
mastin2 (3) -

Pine

, Junpei, Code_X
The Mini-Librarian (2) - StrangerCoug, Psyche
redFF (1) - drmyshottyizsik
Firestarter (1) - redFF
Not Voting (3)- Firestarter, FakeGod, kdowns

Here, where Pine's now the main wagon.

Psyche and Kdowns join in; CodeX switches to Kdowns, and DV gets off the Pine wagon to pursue kdowns.

OGML comes in and immediately gets onto Junpei. The result is this:

Pine (8) - Maxous, scooby,

Kublai Kahn

, Benmage, The Mini-Librarian,

drmyshotgun

, Psyche, kdowns
Junpei (5) - mastin2, HezLucky, Lady Lambdadelta, Nero Cain, OhGodMyLife,
mastin2 (2) -

Pine

, Junpei
kdowns (2) - Code_X, DeasVail
The Mini-Librarian (1) - StrangerCoug
redFF (1) - drmyshottyizsik
OhGodMyLife (1) - redFF
Not Voting (1)- FakeGod

Khan switches boats to the Junpei wagon, and Nero goes back to TML, abandoning Junpei's wagon once more. When called out on it, he jumps back on; in response, Junpei votes Pine. Bringing us to this:

Pine (8) - Maxous, scooby, Benmage, The Mini-Librarian,

drmyshotgun

, Psyche, kdowns, Junpei
Junpei (6) - mastin2, HezLucky, Lady Lambdadelta, OhGodMyLife,

Kublai Kahn

, Nero Cain
kdowns (2) - Code_X, DeasVail
mastin2 (1) -

Pine

The Mini-Librarian (1) - StrangerCoug
redFF (1) - drmyshottyizsik
OhGodMyLife (1) - redFF
Not Voting (1)- FakeGod

redFF joins in immediately after that, voting Pine. CodeX abandons the kdowns wagon, and goes to the Junpei (?) wagon.
Seacore (Pine) joins the Junpei wagon out of self-preservation, and in response, DV joins back in on the Pine/Seacore wagon.

Which brings us to here.

Seacore (10) - Maxous, scooby, Benmage, The Mini-Librarian,

drmyshotgun

, Psyche, kdowns, Junpei, redFF, DeasVail
Junpei (8) - mastin2, HezLucky, Lady Lambdadelta, OhGodMyLife,

Kublai Kahn

, Nero Cain, Code_X,

Seacore

The Mini-Librarian (1) - StrangerCoug
redFF (1) - drmyshottyizsik
Not Voting (1)- FakeGod

Note that the Junpei wagon is entirely made up of people who are townreads, and the Seacore wagon is made up almost entirely by those who I have cast suspicion on, having six names of interest on there. With more to come!

SC on the next page abandons TML, going for Junpei as well. (Note, another townread.)

Psyche also jumps ship, changing from the Pine wagon to the Junpei wagon in the process.

After Khan's fakehammer, on the next page, though, Psyche immediately unvotes. Resulting in this:

Seacore (9) - Maxous, scooby, Benmage, The Mini-Librarian,

drmyshotgun

, kdowns, Junpei, redFF, DeasVail
Junpei (9) - mastin2, HezLucky, Lady Lambdadelta, OhGodMyLife,

Kublai Kahn

, Nero Cain, Code_X,

Seacore

, StrangerCoug
redFF (1) - drmyshottyizsik
Not Voting (2)- FakeGod, Psyche

Benmage switches over to Junpei, abandoning the Seacore wagon and putting Junpei at L-1 again.

Unfortunately, on the next page, Khan goes all derp and switches over to Seacore from Junpei, nullifying things back to 9-9.
FG joins in, putting Seacore to L-1.

On the next page, Seacore commits suicide by unvoting Junpei, ensuring his own lynch, but casts a final glare at DV. (Don't worry, Sea. I have not forgotten this. *points to current vote* As a guy who hates it when people lynched have their reads ignored, I make sure to pay attention to the reads of those who have been lynched*. It's one of the things which made me doubt my Junpei scumread, in fact, though with Khan's death, I'm again thinking scum.)

*Speaking of which, I should take another look at rack's reads. I know I took 'em into consideration before, but I don't remember 'em at this moment.

Psyche comes in and drops the hammer on the lynch, ending the day.


I've got some crossreferencing to do. Antihero and Vijay's public reads, along with their final reads via gunny's paraphrase. Khan's reads. Seacore's opinions, rack's reads, and my own instinct and intuition, all referenced with how the votes were flying yesterday, also comparing them to the rack wagon.

This is too much information for me to process at once. I've copied it all into my QT, so I should be able to work on it tonight, though you won't see the results 'til tomorrow. I think the key here does lie in the wagons and nightkills. Normally, they're not that good of tools, but in this case, with the deadline rush yesterday and the rack coasting on day one and the unusual choice of nightkills......

...There's a chance at pinning things down.

Hey, OGML. What's your stance on lurking?

↑ mastin2 wrote:Hey, OGML. What's your stance on lurking?

In the immortal words of MeMe, post or perish.
I like the votecount analysis you've done, but whats your reasoning for the two scum team conclusion? I don't remember ever seeing it explained, and I don't see any reason to favor a two team theory over a one and an sk theory. I agree its unlikely we have a vig after last night's kills.
I could happily go back to a Junpei vote, but I want kdowns to actually do something before derailing the wagon on him. He's done plenty of posting elsewhere on the site and still refuses to do anything here.

Meta says SC is town and it was ViIce so he's always scummy. But its hard to imagine that out of Ben, TML, LLD, OGML,LLD and Kdowns that they are all town. Add in FakeGod and Junpei.

Also, kdowns, TML, Jun, and FG were on both mislynches.

@Mastin, how did you get from "willing to vote TML-TML is my weakest scum read."?

↑ Nero Cain wrote:Also, kdowns, TML, Jun, and FG were on both mislynches.

Cool, so that makes us less likely to be scum huh? After all, scum wouldn't want to be caught on a mislynch, nevermind TWO.

The more apathy I sense in this game, the more I support lurker lynching, though Junpei still needs to go regardless of his activity.

~Posting my data on flailing in the MD forum...

Are you sure that's legal?

-_-

I'll delete it just in case.