Posted: Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:15 am
I can say Geraintm definitely surprised me. My reads were otherwise spot on save for Frogster, sorry again man. ![Laughing :lol:](./images/smilies/icon_lol2.gif)
![Laughing :lol:](./images/smilies/icon_lol2.gif)
https://forum.mafiascum-staging.net/
It came down to where was the scum on the shelley wagon or the Walter wagon. Everyone but geratim was clear on the shelley wagon. Everyone but you was clear on Walter. So either scum had a forced bus or you were scum favoring Walter over shelley. The forced bus theory turned out to be correct.In post 2103, callforjudgement wrote:@Titus: Did you figure out, based on how townish the entire playerlist was looking towards the end, that scum had probably been bussing? In retrospect, that might have been the step in your VCA reasoning that I was missing.
Oh wow, it did work.geraintm wrote:Trying to work out a path to victory left
7 left alive. CFJ, Walter and Titus are town and should be seen by all as town.
I believe I have to kill CFJ tonight, I cannot risk leaving them alive to either clear someone else or target me
Hi that would be me; I reviewed this game.In post 2098, Gamma Emerald wrote:And yeah idk what the setup reviewers were smoking
This is what I said about the game and by and large, I stand by it:In post 2, mastina wrote:To my eyes, balanced enough. Alien is a good role for the town here with strong kill-denial and some denial of info to the scum PRs, but does have some anti-synergy with the town's power roles; pt cop is a reasonably strong investigative, but has some anti-synergy with the friendly neighbor neighbors (who're, essentially, masons); the friendly neighbor neighbors are, essentially, masons; the scum PRs don't give them any hard-counters to the town PRs but give them extra information to work with.
But I'm the secondary reviewer here so it's more Nexus's call here.
EBWOP: (It's also worth bearing in mind that the Fruit Vendor properties of a confirmed Friendly Neighbour have some minor uses for town that can help to determine facts about the setup, e.g. I used it to probabilistically demonstrate that I was most likely an Alien specifically rather than some other power role, and if the game had lasted another Night, we could have used it to probabilistically test whether or not Titus was Ascetic and thus handle one of the potential scenarios in which she could have been scum.)In post 2113, callforjudgement wrote:(It's also worth bearing in mind that the Fruit Vendor properties of a confirmed Friendly Neighbour have some minor uses for town that can help to
In retrospect, my theory here was probably wrong; I didn't know at the time that there was a Mafia Watcher.In post 1912, callforjudgement wrote:I'm assuming I'm an Alien, not a Jailkeeper, to make the setup a bit less townsided. There's a chance of randomly rolestopping the Role Cop or a Friendly Neighbour by mistake, thus toning down the power of the other town power roles. A Jailkeeper wouldn't do that.
Going the other way, if I were hypothetically scum, Alien would make the setup somewhat more scumsided, for exactly the same reason.
the revelation: genuinely forgot about this game. sorry for my forgetfulness that led to a scum lossIn post 2116, callforjudgement wrote:Anyway, something that's still confusing/bothering me: why didn't shelly cross-vote Walter at the end of Day 1? I'm not sure it ever got explained how or why she flaked from this game specifically while continuing to post elsewhere.
I've looked up my games, I post more as scum vs. as town so that's reasonableIn post 2118, callforjudgement wrote:Funnily enough, I townread you for forgetting (I thought you'd be more likely to remember the game if you were scum), and so was particularly surprised at the flip.
I don't get your logic. where does my thinking fall apart? who would have been the extra confirmed town player apart from walter and titus if I had killed you?In post 2109, callforjudgement wrote:Subject: Mini Normal 2159 | Cinder Block Mafia | Mafia PT
Oh wow, it did work.geraintm wrote:Trying to work out a path to victory left
7 left alive. CFJ, Walter and Titus are town and should be seen by all as town.
I believe I have to kill CFJ tonight, I cannot risk leaving them alive to either clear someone else or target me
There was some evidence that the scumteam was making theory mistakes, and so I was hoping to bait scum into nightkilling me (e.g. my breaking strategy posts were clear on what would happen if I survived, but intentionally vague/worried about what would happen if I were nightkilled; and I made sure to stress how powerful my ability was). But a successful nightkill on me would have lead to 3 confirmed townies in 5 players, which is a 100% win rate ending no matter how bad your reads are (just eliminate the unconfirmed players), better than the 80% strategy that was available at that point anyway. So as an extra chance, I was hoping to be nightkilled and guarantee a town win even if Nosferatu were scum.
I can be disappointed in my reads this game (they were so bad I ended up looking scummy by VCA!), but I am really happy with how well I played this mechanically (this is probably my best mechanical play ever, although admittedly I usually end up drawing VT and having no real opportunity).
The player that I targeted overnight. (If I had targeted you, you wouldn't have killed me.) That's the reason I was leaving the clearest possible messages in the game thread as to who I was targeting.In post 2121, geraintm wrote:I don't get your logic. where does my thinking fall apart? who would have been the extra confirmed town player apart from walter and titus if I had killed you?