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Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2013 5:17 pm
by Bert
In post 1471, Wisdom wrote:I cannot believe the stupidity of this town.

I'm the fucking doctor, do you still not get it? I
know
they have a roleblocker.

Fucking lynch Cabd before he manages to convince the town, he is capable of it.
Never mind, he claimed Doc before that ns vote.

Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2013 5:21 pm
by Bert
Now, time to look at the timing of Ffery's "signaling intent" to hammer Kaze and what transpired then. I remember vaguely her saying "I was about to hammer" shortly after when Wisdom came in as a replacement.

Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2013 5:25 pm
by Bert
In post 1343, fferyllt wrote:
In post 1342, Sakura Hana wrote:Yeah let's just do this
Vote: Mario


Sorry Agi, more than likely you're dying tonight unless there's a doctor, It'd be nice if you give your reads and thoughts before day ends just in case.
This.

Intent to hammer
In post 1349, Malakittens wrote:Wisdom replaces Mario4!
Hmm, it was before Wisdom came in that she signaled intent. Interesting.

Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2013 5:26 pm
by notscience
Wis/fferys PR debate...

Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2013 5:27 pm
by Malakittens
3.07With 5 alive it's 3 votes to lynch.

Voting for:


*Fferyllt -
*Bert - Wisdom [1]
*Wisdom - Bert [1]
*Sakura Hana -
*notscience -

Not voting: Fferyllt, notscience, Sakura Hana [3]


Day 3 ends in (expired on 2013-11-02 00:02:00)

Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2013 6:10 pm
by Wisdom
Unbelievable how you guys let Bert manipulate you like that. Just lynch me already so this game can end

Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2013 6:34 pm
by fferyllt
Gravija/Kaze day 1.

gravija voted agi during RVS. He moved to TSO . I assumed this was more RVS because of the timeframe, but he like it was serious when notsci questioned him about the timing. And . This earnestness about the vote was part of what made me think newbtown.

- he votes agi again because of agi's defensiveness. irony. In he FoSes notsci. He appears to get angry and then votes notsci a few posts later. The super-touchiness also struck me as newb. He switches back to agi a few posts later because he finds agi annoying.

Then he stops moving his vote around and interacts more, interspersed with spells of inactivity.

In post he sheeps Bert onto Cabd. Then when Sakura calls him on this and offers to be the lynch instead, he votes her in

This is his last vote before being replaced.

He's on the volatile end of newb behavior. Although he disappeared a couple of times, I wouldn't characterize his play as lurky.

Looking back with the hindsight of his successors in that slot, the reasons for voting are mostly weak and reactive, but it's really not something that stands out as scummy in the context of newb play. Damn it. If he's scum he played really well here as a newb.

Kaze's was eye-glazing and in some ways weak looking. He voted TSO at the end of it, though I think he commented more about Cabd. In his wall of links, he made a lot of comments about notsci being town. And he showed a trajectory in catch-up on Bert moving to town.

-- So gravija tangled with ns and at one point voted him. Kaze townread him. IME newbs tend not to engage their scum partners. Kaze isn't exactly a newb, and I am not sure if he'd townread his partner that strongly.


he comments that he's sharing the TSO wagon with a scum read (Cabd) and a null read (agi). this post struck me as townie at the time.

After this there's a lot of eye-glazing over all the meta. He townreads Sakura for her fatalism. He townreads GM for not liking Sakura's lurkiness. Then there's a long strand of interaction with Bert, who's suspicious of him.

Starting around he starts to go after notsci over his meta change, and the change being "selective", e.g., tunneling still a feature.

shows a trajectory breakdown maybe. He's indicating that Cabd's earlier dismissive post is not alignment indicative. At the end of the post he unvotes TSO and expresses interest in voting Cabd, but once again takes exception to who else is on that wagon.

is interesting. He indicates he took his vote off TSO mostly to avoid a derphammer, but is deciding where to move it next. No indication that his read on TSO actually changed. In he moves it back to TSO.

At this point, Cabd is back from jury duty. Kaze interacts with him a bit, asks about Cabd snark in , gripes about meta. I particularly liked post . He wasn't avoiding the noisy, assertive players in this game.

, reaction to Bert, especially to the VT claim, which I thought could be a PR tell when I skimmed his ISO looking for anything like a doc crumb. - I thought this was goodposting, calling Bert out for the Cabd->TSO->GM trajectory in a short burst of posts.

- this sort of post I just never really grasp. I'm usually a wreck at this point of a game day. I see this from town as often as scum, though.

he's changed his mind about Cabd and says he's seeing the posts during the run-up to lynch as genuine.

Going back through this, I see why I wasn't scumreading Kaze. There are wobbles, but some of his posts just really strike me as town, and some take stances on players that would suck to retract later - specifically notsci early on, and I like his trajectory toward a null read of notsci as the day progressed. And his read-change on Cabd because he was expressing doubts about his scumread of Cabd at a time in the game where I was getting Cabd townvibes as well.

The main thing that looks weird is that he was apparently deciding where to move his vote when he took it off TSO, though his read didn't change. This is somewhat mitigated by his return to the TSO wagon shortly after.

Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2013 6:36 pm
by fferyllt
In post 2151, Bert wrote:Now, time to look at the timing of Ffery's "signaling intent" to hammer Kaze and what transpired then. I remember vaguely her saying "I was about to hammer" shortly after when Wisdom came in as a replacement.
It was before he replaced in. Later, I opened the thread to vote Kaze and found the announcement about Wisdom.

Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2013 7:20 pm
by fferyllt
Although I had Kaze as null/town for most of day 1, at the end of that day when GM claimed VT and started looking town, when Cabd basically offered to be lynched so I'd stfu and move on with the game, I had Kaze as possible scum. I kinda lost track of that after Wisdom's replace-in. And Cabd argued pretty convincingly that it made sense just to remove the slot from the game given how long it had been inactive. I was ready to hammer on that basis.

This would be a very different game if I had. :/

I'm working on day 2 Kaze/Wisdom now.

Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2013 8:11 pm
by Wisdom
Yeah, it would. You would just lynch cabd in lylo instead.

Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2013 8:22 pm
by Wisdom
@sakura re: my omgus
You're wrong. When my top scumread votes me in lylo with such contrived reasons like the ones Bert gave, I have no reason not to vote back. Even if I was wrong, I was around and ready to unvote if I sensed quickhammering coming. I'll link you to games I've done the same thing when I'm at a computer.

Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2013 8:40 pm
by fferyllt
Kaze/Wisdom - Day 2

- his first post is kinda meh. I actually pay a lot of attention to the first posts of day 2 because I find they sometimes reveal quite a lot. This post, coming after the discussion of the night kill was well underway looks weak. There was stuff to respond to. His next post, if anything is worse (from my offsite perspective) because he indicates the NKA is WIFOM. I realize site meta seriously downplays night kill analysis but I don't think I'll ever really buy into that.

From there he moves on to more complaints about meta, mostly directed at Bert.

in response to Bert is pretty non-responsive.

felt like town-frustration over not being able to dig in to the game.

At the time I thought this was a valid complaint because this game sometimes resembled the Star Trek TNG episode with the alien spacegoers whose language consisted of metaphors. "Dharmak and Jelad, at Tenagra! "Morph and Sakura in Xenologue!"


More go-round with bert and then several pages without an appearance after Cabd called him and bert on role fishing after the sakura/Cabd crumb-mania in

Roughly 8 pages later, he posts one last time to request replacement. And that was a site-wide replace-out.

There's a long gap with a newbie replacement who couldn't cut the thread's length and density.
Then Wisdom replaces in.


Wisdom's reads of the non-conftown, he says ns is his strongest read. His complaint about my intent to hammer in his catch up post actually fits a doc claim :/

he has Bert as the more likely partner of scum-Cabd.

What follows is a whole lot of tunneling on Cabd. I'm not going to go through that in detail. I'm more interested in what he says about other players on day 2. He constantly pushes Sakura's Cabd read and says Cabd is AtEing and manipulating her.

he says that scum-me would have hammered Cabd. , basically work from the me-scum premise and is pretty much classic tunneling because there is no action that would result in a "town-me" read. My only question is whether this is town-tunneling or scum-tunneling. :(

- bert/ffery team, and ns looks town.

is jawdropping. "You could have tried harder to convince me." The sheer egotism and refusal to accept responsibility for his part in the mislynch is mindblowing. Is this coming from a town mindset?

His play on day 2, though horrible in results really leaves me a lot more unsure about his alignment than day 3 has. It reminds me of his tunneling the me/nacho hydra in the MYLO game. In that game, we managed to do something that changed his mind - we both wrote huge walls worth of reads.

Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2013 8:47 pm
by Wisdom
What changed my mind on that game was not your walls, it ess nacho's unbelievably accurate depiction of my mind. He completely nailed it when he described how I was unable to stop my tunneling despite being unsure.

Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 12:40 am
by Sakura Hana
In post 2155, Wisdom wrote:Unbelievable how you guys let Bert manipulate you like that. Just lynch me already so this game can end
Hm?

I'm fairly sure my VCA is pointing to a possible ns/Bert scumteam. But this post is giving me bad vibes.

Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 12:40 am
by Wisdom
Here, Sakura. The links point to the beginning of lylo for each game.

In this game I began lylo by declaring my scumread on one of the players, making it clear that he is the one I intend to vote, without voting him though. He proceeded to vote me, so I instantly voted him back, without any thoughts that he might be town.

In this lylo I wasn't quite sure who the scum is, but regardless I was voted by one of my suspects and I instantly OMGUS'd him instead of asking him to unvote or anything, because I was fairly certain that his sudden vote on me was unwarranted and confirmed he is scum.

In =12809#p4821896]this one, a townie voted me right when lylo began. He was my top suspect, so I instantly voted him back when I came to the thread. In this one I admittedly did make a comment about the fact that if he is town, we've lost the game.


Now compare those to this one, where after I had tunneled on Miss Destroyer for the whole game, I had a change of heart in lylo and supported they are town. When they came to the thread, they voted me. I was shouting at them to unvote for the remainder of the lylo, until I was hammered by the scum. What's the difference here? The difference here is that I had convinced myself that I was wrong about Miss Destroyer and I was feeling someone who is town is voting me and scum are going to hammer soon.


In the case of this game, Bert was my top scumread, I expressed that fact in my first posts of this day, and Bert placed an unwarranted vote on me, saying that "I was tunneling on him", which was a lie, since if that was the case I would have voted him. This made me even more confident that I was right about Bert so I voted him back. If he was town and I was wrong, we would lose anyway since scum would hammer me. If it was you, or notscience, or maybe even ffery, who had voted me, then I would probably would have reacted in the way you're describing. It was my top suspect who did so, not someone who had the potential to be town, so I didn't. And I was right.

Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 12:42 am
by Wisdom

Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 12:46 am
by Wisdom
In post 2163, Sakura Hana wrote:
In post 2155, Wisdom wrote:Unbelievable how you guys let Bert manipulate you like that. Just lynch me already so this game can end
Hm?

I'm fairly sure my VCA is pointing to a possible ns/Bert scumteam. But this post is giving me bad vibes.
I have not read your VCA, I posted that after skimming and seeing that everyone is pointing their finger at me as if I have been confscum'd by a cop.

Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 1:09 am
by Wisdom
Ok, I saw your VCA but I don't see how it points at Bert/ns. There are a few occasions where they both vote the same person, one next to another. This usually does not happen with scumbuddies.

Or look at this:
In post 640, Bert wrote:Vote: TSO -> This is for you, notscience.
when notscience was the only person on the TSO wagon and had been voting him since early. Doesn't feel scumbuddyish.


On the other hand, ffery did join the counterwagon Bert created (goodmorning), but hesitated and didn't do it instantly (see ). Now this is a subtle way to join a wagon without the fear of getting linked to the one who started it, yet still participating in pushing it.

Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 4:12 am
by Bert
I just woke up and see what's going on. I came into this game and started sheeping notscience because I felt he was supertown. And I didn't have solid reads coming in, with just one re-skim under my belt.

This is my opening:
In post 200, Bert wrote:Hi...

This does not feel like a newbie game

Dat playerlist <3

Spoiler:
Image
In post 204, notscience wrote:Bert you should sheep me
In post 205, Bert wrote:VOTE: Cabd
In post 206, T S O wrote:Bert, why so Town?
In post 207, Bert wrote:Because I sheeped notscience in 513 and 514, and I'm doing it again since I think ns is town

but I've just skimmed and done nothing else in this game

sheeping notscience is proven to work if you pick the right time

this is the right time

therefore I an notscience's sheep

/pat

Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 5:06 am
by fferyllt
In post 2167, Wisdom wrote:On the other hand, ffery did join the counterwagon Bert created (goodmorning), but hesitated and didn't do it instantly (see 419). Now this is a subtle way to join a wagon without the fear of getting linked to the one who started it, yet still participating in pushing it.
I am deliberative about voting. Period. Regardless of alignment. In fact, I probably hesitate more as town because when I'm scum any uncertainty I'm displaying is likely fake.

This tendency gets either magnified or overridden when I hydra, depending on my partner.

More trajectories coming later today.

Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 5:08 am
by Wisdom
I couldn't care less about your excuses. The point is the VCA points to you being his buddy more than ns.

Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 5:09 am
by Bert
Yeah ffery your hesitance got to me in 1415 lol

if there's anything I can do today that would help you make your decision (if you're town) then just ask

I have downtime between random homework stuffs

Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 5:12 am
by fferyllt
In post 2170, Wisdom wrote:I couldn't care less about your excuses. The point is the VCA points to you being his buddy more than ns.
The point is incorrect. And, I've told you why.

Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 5:13 am
by Wisdom
Nope

Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 6:03 am
by fferyllt
I need to get stuck in traffic more often. Epiphany.

Wisdom's play has stopped making any sense from a town perspective and makes total sense from a scum perspective. The change happened when I said I intend to vote him. I pointed this out already, but the ramifications didn't really sink in.

1. He's not pushing for a Bert lynch at all any more

2. He's not yelling that town will lose if he's lynched.

3. His focus over the last 24 hours or so has been all about tomorrow when if he's town his priority HAS TO BE TODAY because if he's lynched there IS no tomorrow.

Ergo, he's positioning his team for a second day of LYLO.

Failing traffic jams, maybe getting reasonable sleep would help with epiphanies. :/