Mafiascum.net

In post 2117, Sotty7 wrote:I'm currently at work posting from a kindle so it's hard to quote and keep up but I'm not 1v1 with katsuki at all.

Mostly posting to not hammer at this point. I'm willing to give katsuki a little more time. However the more he avoids the thread, the more it looks like scum bailing

In post 2118, Sotty7 wrote:Lets talk partners.

Possible combos:

Katsuki + Thor
Katsuki + Dwlee
Katsuki + iraonavp
Katsuki + Sotty
Thor+ Dwlee
Thor + iranoavp
Thor + Sotty
Dwlee + iraonavp
Dwlee + Sotty
Sotty + iraonavp


Right now we have Katsuki at lynch - 1 with iraonavp and Dwlee voting. Both myself and Thor have posted without a hammer. That rules out a team of me and Thor as it would make Katsuki town and one of us would have end gamed you all by now.

This also rules out any team of either myself or Thor with either Dwlee or iraonavp because again this would me Katsuki was town and either Thor or myself would have hammered and the game would be over. This leaves us with the following five groupings.

Katsuki + Thor
Katsuki + Dwlee
Katsuki + iraonavp
Katsuki + Sotty
Dwlee + iraonavp

Thor+ Dwlee

Thor + iranoavp

Thor + Sotty

Dwlee + Sotty

Sotty + iraonavp

Breaking it down like this makes it pretty clear to me that Katsuki is scum. I want to check into the Dwlee + iraonavp just to make myself feel better but right now I don't feel that being too likely. I spoke about an alternate theory of the crime, and I was thinking it could be iranovp + Thor. I was doing reading and Bellaphant (Thor) left a vote on Spiffeh (iraonavp) a lot of day one despite spending most of her time pushing elsewhere on her reads. It stuck out to me. We have ruled that partnership out since Thor didn't hammer.

Am I missing something?

In post 2152, Katsuki wrote:

In post 2117, Sotty7 wrote:I'm currently at work posting from a kindle so it's hard to quote and keep up but I'm not 1v1 with katsuki at all.

Mostly posting to not hammer at this point. I'm willing to give katsuki a little more time. However the more he avoids the thread, the more it looks like scum bailing

Who said we were 1v1?

In post 1664, pieguyn wrote:to lay things out in more depth for people like Zulfy who might not have followed all of my posts so far:

I think S_S and Nahdia is the most likely scum team. however, there are two imminent issues with an S_S lynch: 1. I also feel about 95% sure {Katsuki, Nahdia} contains exactly one scum, and in a situation like that you resolve it the day *before* XYLO, not at XYLO, and 2. if we lynch S_S first, I die overnight and Nahdia's slot will likely get away straight to endgame, especially with people like kraska in the game who are not only easily manipulable but who are also going to turn around and straight up lynch one of the people who is scum reading her.

my scum read on Nahdia is a lot stronger than my scum read on S_S, and I think there are some other possibilities outside of S_S being the second scum; namely I think Nahdia's partner is somewhere in {S_S, dwlee, Wingback}, with Wingback being more of an outside shot than anything. for this reason, and because there has been no talk at all about the idea of flipping dwlee and so he would not have been flipped last night (and couldn't have been flipped N1/N2 because those went to Nahdia and Katsuki) - despite thinking S_S is more likely scum - it's more prudent to flip dwlee here, for the end goal of solidifying town reads. the end result then becomes that if dwlee flips blue, it makes {Nahdia, S_S} very close to a lock unless something stupid is going on or at the least *if* S_S is town we have a lot more information about who the last scum is, and if he flips red, then that's a lot more useful than something like S_S flipping red where there'd be a lot of WIFOM regarding whether scum altered his color or not.

lynching Katsuki first out of this pair doesn't work for the same reason lynching S_S first doesn't work: Nahdia's slot will get straight to endgame if we take that route. and if Nahdia somehow flips *town*, then I feel a lot better about the rest of yall's chances tomorrow despite not trusting people like kraska for shit, since the Katsuki lynch will be guaranteed with really no way for him to argue his way out of it.

ergo, flip dwlee -> lynch Nahdia is the percentage play and the play that is by far the most difficult for scum to play around

if Nahdia and Katsuki are both town then lolol, we all just collectively suck so I don't mind as much.

In post 1716, pieguyn wrote:the question here is, which among the following do we believe:

1. the scum team is {Nahdia, S_S or someone else who isn't dwlee}. they flipped Nahdia N1, Katsuki N2, and N3, of all the town players in the game, decided on flipping dwlee N3 despite him being pretty much widely considered town and no one talking about flipping him whatsoever? I don't mean this rhetorically, I'm wondering if there's something I'm missing here.

2. the scum team is {Nahdia, dwlee}. they flipped Nahdia N1, Katsuki N2, and N3 gave dwlee a different non-red color that wasn't blue?

3. Nahdia-slot isn't on the scum team and it's {Katsuki, someone}, and they just didn't bother painting Katsuki blue for some reason? in that case we have no idea except at some point they flipped dwlee, and we should consider who they figured would be a more valuable use for the blue paint than Katsuki, which I have trouble seeing since he was a consensus scum read and pretty much everyone wanted to flip him.

no one bum rush shit, I need to think about this more and probably won't be back until later.

In post 1830, pieguyn wrote:dwlee is not "confirmed scum", or even more likely scum, really, if CO is town. if CO is town then we're in case 3 from my 1716, and scum could have done just about anything with the flips.

that's a large part of why lynching dwlee first is really fucking stupid, and it's also the reason it's stupid that people are claiming this is "lining up lynches". if CO flips town, we don't do anything with dwlee tomorrow, we reevaluate from there (with the additional knowledge Katsuki is very likely scum).

In post 1829, pieguyn wrote:kraska still isn't scum, she's just a really, really, really, really bad player.

lynching dwlee over CO is really bad and it isn't theoretically correct due to there being one scum in CO/Katsuki. moreover, there are a few things I need to look at before being sure of whether it's dwlee or not.

In post 2164, Dwlee99 wrote:YOU ARE CONFIRMED TO HAVE STARTED RED THERE ISNT A STINKING NONBLUE GODFATHER IN THE GAME

In post 2160, Sotty7 wrote:Thor are you willing to hammer?

In post 2066, Dwlee99 wrote:Katsuki = RED
Dwlee = PURPLE
irainavp = WHITE
wingback =BLACK
Zulfy= RED
Sotty = ???
No one starts as not blue/red.
So that means that three of the nights scum colored someone are already gone
Katsuki = RED
Zulfy= RED
Sotty = ???
zulfy was town and he flipped red, so he had to have been painted
Katsuki = RED
Sotty = ???
So that is nights one - four that we know one of those four people are colored.
And sotty claims to have been colored last night so that means that katsuki is the one in the list who has NOT been colored, meaning they started out as red, ergo katsuki is scum.