Nacho: why are Amrun and i your best TRs going into this day?
scum Nacho and town Farkran... does scum Nacho spend what time he has day 3 focused on Farkran? and i hope i'm remembering right and this was day 3 and not day 2. if someone could confirm or deny that would be nice. i'll look in a bit though.
i should really reread Farkran's day 3 posting because i feel like i'm in a better headspace to properly parse it this time.
Posted: Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:53 pm
by Chara
Bingle... does scum Bingle enter the game and immediately sheep his partner without reading his case? maybe, though i'd have to laugh at it a little.
also just realized i've been on my phone for three hours straight and i need to go home. this is a bad habit. at least i'm motivated.
Posted: Fri Feb 28, 2020 1:24 pm
by Bingle
In post 2146, Chara wrote:Amrun/Nacho where Amrun is humming over a Nacho lynch doesn't exactly seem likely either, though then you can say the same thing about Amrun/Farkran. and that's without considering that distancing is obviously a thing so i shouldn't be reading into the offhand comments Amrun has just made as much as her big pushes throughout the game.
The big difference between Nacho/Amrun and Fark/Amrun is Amrun sitting on lurkerAsriel D1, imo.
Posted: Fri Feb 28, 2020 1:25 pm
by Bingle
In post 2145, Chara wrote:is saying "these players aren't a team" the townhunting equivalent of teamhunting?
Yes.
Posted: Fri Feb 28, 2020 1:30 pm
by Bingle
In post 2140, Farkran wrote:Also wouldn't this team just powerlynch Nacho right now?
You mean like how Amrun and Chara are both considering a Nacho lynch right now? I mean... It doesn't make them autoscum, there's legitimate reasons behind their considerations in my opinion, but you kinda just described what's actually happening.
Posted: Fri Feb 28, 2020 1:33 pm
by Bingle
In post 2139, Farkran wrote:pedit: sure, i'll get back to you in a minute. I feel like i have already explained my reasons several times here though, so if you have any specific questions about what i am potentially missing from my solve, please go ahead and ask. When i say "assume town!Hectic", that's... pretty much what you asked me to, it's like if somehow Hectic has already been flipped or pops came here slipping Hectic's rolepm
The difference is that I'm asking you to assume town Hectic because you've talked at length about Hectic teams and rehashing those doesn't really give me more info to work with.
I'm not assuming town Hectic, because Hectic teams are honestly a large blindspot, but I've already got access to your reasoning there.
Posted: Fri Feb 28, 2020 1:35 pm
by Bingle
In post 2139, Farkran wrote:Who do i consider as my top scumread right now, in your opinion?
My guess to your individual reads is Hect > Nacho > Chara.
Posted: Fri Feb 28, 2020 1:56 pm
by Amrun
In post 2147, Chara wrote:Amrun: what are your reads independent of team analysis?
Honestly, they’re similar. Throughout the game I have simply attempted to make sure my reads weren’t disqualified from being a team, as opposed to team hunting.
I’ll do a reads list anyway but it’s same old:
Farkran: some things I tonally TR, but he’s shown the least re-evaluation, and I think the reason he’s been hard to lynch besides seeming like they could go through is that they are probably just scum.
Bingle: definitely SR in a vacuum. Obviously. Have liked today’s content more than any other day’s which has me questioning.
Chara: I really rarely question my TR of Chara because we have been in line all game and that disturbs me, yet I can’t talk myself out of it.
Nacho: I had high hopes that have been dashed. I don’t understand his progression on farkran, but does he really go that blatant wishy washy as scum?
Posted: Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:35 pm
by Bingle
Bingle
Fark
Amrun/Hectic
Chara
Nacho
is my current headspace, but the bottom three rows have been very fluid this phase. I also don't think Amrun's me/Fark pairing read is unreasonable, which is honestly a lot of why I'm feeling better about her. Objectively, it DOES look like I'm defending a buddy the way I'm going about defending Fark, and I understand an individual scumread on him as well.
Anyway, I'm pretty stalled out on logic until Nacho gets back to answer to my questions. If anyone has questions I'm happy to respond and I'll be available ish for comment.
Posted: Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:26 pm
by Amrun
Actually, while the above is all true and part of my read, I picked Alimdia/asriel as having buddy equity on day 1 because it felt like alimdia was scumplaining that her buddy was getting pressured but Pine-town was also lurking and not catching flak.
And then the game keeps making sense for that team, day after day.
Posted: Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:35 pm
by Chara
i keep arguing myself out of pairings. Bingle/Farkran is so obvious and Bingle says so in the thread and i'm thinking about it too hard. Amrun/Nacho means Amrun's been playing really really well and Nacho's been irl busy, which he has regardless of alignment. i feel like it's a not-obvious pairing but i'm going in circles at this point and don't really have a good way to back that up.
my thinking is Farkran is better given Nacho has zero defenders, but Farkran
also
has no defenders besides Bingle himself, who is then sticking his neck out to keep Farkran alive. does it actually make more sense to lynch Bingle first? the fact that Bingle is the one who presented that argument, though.
Posted: Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:36 pm
by Chara
In post 2159, Amrun wrote:Actually, while the above is all true and part of my read, I picked Alimdia/asriel as having buddy equity on day 1 because it felt like alimdia was scumplaining that her buddy was getting pressured but Pine-town was also lurking and not catching flak.
And then the game keeps making sense for that team, day after day.
it took my brain way too long to translate alimdia/Asriel into Bingle/Farkran.
Posted: Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:43 pm
by Chara
2154 and then Nacho at the bottom of Bingle's list feels weird. like he's arguing for an Amrun/Chara team to Farkran as part of the discussion but he's not actually committed to it.
Posted: Fri Feb 28, 2020 4:29 pm
by Chara
Amrun's town. going from there. it's true she and Nacho make sense as a team but i can't ignore my Amrun read just for that, there's a reason i was confident. Bingle isn't the type of player i can be confident on and i think Farkran is the same. it's interesting to me that i could be so confident on Replica, but i don't think it's accurate to call Replica a 100% logical player, in spite of the mathematical arguments.
Nacho's logic from today feels weak, and i could definitely see a world with Nacho scum. Farkran/Nacho seems unlikely given today and yesterday, but i won't discount it entirely if they did just decide to bus.
that would also track with Farkran's Hectic/Nacho scum narrative, since Nacho flipping scum gives reason for Farkran to push for Hectic. and Farkran flipping scum after Nacho opens up with the strong bus vote looks good for Nacho. it does feel weak but i also don't want to BoP myself out've scum Nacho because he's having an off game/busy.
i'll reread tomorrow with that in mind i think, but if it can be discounted entirely as an option that's also helpful.
another reason for Amrun to be town is that she's seeing things from Farkran to townlean. sure she still ultimately thinks he's scum but there's something to be said for picking up on those. i also agree, tonally Fark has reasons to be town and though i feel none of it now, there was definitely a point i was frustrated interacting with him and that rarely happens with scum for me. like to the point i have to fight myself on autoscumreading anyone who is very agreeable.
if we do mislynch today then that makes the remaining pair the scumteam if i'm right on Amrun (and i really do think i'm right). that's partially comforting but it's not the same thing as convincing everyone else i'm both town and also correct. former thing i'm confident about at least. what worries me then is the vig shot.
In post 2140, Farkran wrote:Also wouldn't this team just powerlynch Nacho right now?
You mean like how Amrun and Chara are both considering a Nacho lynch right now? I mean... It doesn't make them autoscum, there's legitimate reasons behind their considerations in my opinion, but you kinda just described what's actually happening.
Yeah, just as much as Nacho/Amrun wanting to lynch me, Nacho/Chara doing the same, etc. If we are trying to explore new solves other than Hectic, let's take a look at the facts. There is at least 1 scum alive and unspared, because sujimichi is the only conftown we have. Can we produce any more conftown? No. Can we try to guess? Yes. What do we use to make an educated guess? Up to you.
From what i have seen in the history of past days, despite how much you hated it, i could separate players who showed independent thought and/or genuine reconsideration from those who were sheeping and omgussing instead.
1) Chara. Was scumleaning me when i replaced in, consolidated its scumread during d2 when i started pushing it, reconsidered in favor of sparing (d2) and lynching chemist (d3). Does this progression make sense? Maybe. I have more issues with its progression on Hectic than i have on her progression on me. While i thought things excalated really quickly around d1 eod, the town flip of Replica at least proved me wrong on my "comically terrible" timeline push on those two slots. I still think there is some potential for a chainsaw defense against me if Chara is Hectic's partner, but once again that's dependant on a Hectic scumflip more than Chara itself at this point in time.
2) Amrun. Was scumleaning me when i replaced in but tried reconsidering me in favor of lynching Bingle first, then Chemist, now she's on me again. Does this progression make sense? Yes, i think it does, but she also seems to be ok with any lynch aside from her own. Except for d2. Actually, did Amrun have any time to vote me in d2, or did Hectic quickspare happen first?
3) Nacho. Was townreading me when i replaced in, started reconsidering me after Hectic was spared, ended up hardscumreading me. Never tried reconsidering any other slot, went from "we should never spare!!!" to "hectic is so town i would entrust the life of my children to him!!!" Does this progression make sense? No, even if i described it with a hyperbolical and sarcastic narrative - that's just exactly what happened.
4) Bingle. Was townreading me when he replaced in, continued townreading me despite my vote on him, with some re-evaluation from time to time. Kept analyzing other slots as well. Does this progression make sense? Yes, this is the player i have the least issues with. Might also be due to having analyzed him from both a town (cult game) and a scum (*ahem* that was fun *ahem*) point of view, i think i understand how town!Bingle plays. I have no experience with scum!Bingle though.
Does this help us sorting before entering new home? Maybe. Probably not. Everyone's highest scumread is different. The highest consensus comes from Nacho, Chara and Amrun on lynching me. I'm... only partially ok with that, i would have liked to die in d2 when it would actually help advancing the gamestate towards a solve. Now it kinda does too, but on a townflip i can see the town in complete disarray rather than in a better position to win, unless Psyche has very good aim - which i am not entirely confident with. Is there any other non-scum lynch that would produce a better result?
Posted: Sat Feb 29, 2020 1:25 am
by Amrun
Why is it exactly Psyche shooting?
Posted: Sat Feb 29, 2020 1:53 am
by Farkran
As far as VCA goes, i think i provided enough over the days.
Amrun was fascinated by how quickly Hectic acclimated himself to his giant snowdrake headpiece. After only a couple shaky steps, he began to mimic the way Nachomamma8 ambulates his own top heavy body, in a lurching gait that is somewhat of a strut.
"I love this idea for a game! Let's play costumes and model! Hectic is a natural model! Look at him, he was born for this!"
Hectic strutted over to Amrun and began to lightly gnaw on her shoes, even though she was wearing them. The headgear pushed against her other leg and made him fall over, so then he just rolled around on his back again and enjoyed the scraping noise he could make by wriggling his head.
"Maybe that means he wants shoes. We can make him a full costume! You want to be a star, don't you Hectic?"
Hectic wagged his tail excitedly and seemed to struggle to try to stand up again. Amrun gently used her mouth to grasp Hectic's headpiece and lift him back onto his feet.
"I present to all of you, Hectic, Heavy Headed Haberdasher, Hemmer, Hairstylist, Hipness Holistician!" Amrun exclaimed.
With eleven players alive, it takes six votes to make a decision. (expired on 2020-01-28 22:00:00)
"Bingle has some really good ideas. And my new father has said that having a training dummy is for our safety, even if I don't know exactly what that means. So if we don't have a replacement, we are in danger. I say that we are taking whatever measures necessary to ensure we have one." Chara said these thing as they walked to a toolbox on the porch and pulled out a saw, a screwdriver, some sandpaper, and a ratchet. They walked back towards Chemist1422 and the group smiling, and one of their eyes glowed more than the other - why was that?
"You might become the best dummy ever. Certainly the one with the largest eye." Chara used the sandpaper to sharpen the saw, being as theatrical as they could manage.
After the saw was "sharp enough", they held the sandpaper up in the sunlight. "Bingle, is it normal 'genetics' for a dummy to have horns?" They thumbed the sandpaper ominously. "Because I want us to have a dummy just as authentic as if someone had gone to the CORE and retrieved us one promptly."
"No." Bingle answered. This prompted Chara to put the sandpaper along with the saw as the instruments with primary relevance.
Chara used their feet to make a round shape of grass within the leaves, close to the shape of Chemist1422's body. "Okay, Chemist1422, step forward - with your last steps, the best ones - and lie down here for your procedure."
Chemist1422's eye widened and widened and widened. Then with a resolute blink, the loox easily decided on the better alternative.
"I'll go get one I'll get one I'll get one!" He ran as fast as he could in the direction of the CORE, running so fast he soon tripped and his spherical body began rolling towards the CORE.
"I may or may not have seen that outcome coming," Chara admitted.
Chemist1442 has been
fought
.
Spoiler: Chemist1422 Role PM
You are a lil
Loox
, aligned with the
town
. You have no special abilities besides your voice and your vote. You are in the formative years of your life when you received the "bullied" complex that will later shape your personality. But for that to bullying to have the right impact, you should play and have fun first, so that there is something to ruin. You won't bully any of your new friends, if you did, how could you ever develop a persecution complex?
To confirm for the game, tell me your alignment and tell me that the mafia have daytalk, by PM.
Here is your image. It can be posted in the game thread if it's by itself:
I think there is scum on my d1 fight wagon, and i think there is scum on all hectic spare wagons. If Almidia/Bingle with a non-Hectic partner were looking for towncred, they would spare Hectic too. If they wanted to avoid a town spare, they would lynch me at any point in time. Ignoring both means that they just disagree with the consensus rather than pushing to a convenient result in either direction, and that's more often than not town indicative. It usually is scummy only when it comes from lurker... which could fit with Almidia MIA in d1 eod and Bingle not engaging properly during d2, but then Bingle came back and didn't update the situation, which is one of the staple points for my towncase of Bingle.
First night kill after both spare and fight have been used once.
I missed that detail.... that’s concerning. It’s possible Psyche re-evaluated his reads. Wait why did anyone say NKA indicates me, knowing this?
It actually indicates Bingle and Farkran, whom he won’t shoot.
Posted: Sat Feb 29, 2020 2:03 am
by Amrun
I thought it would be Replica. I had to re-read OP like 4x right now to even understand why it might be Psyche.
Posted: Sat Feb 29, 2020 2:06 am
by Amrun
I actually think one of {Bingle/Farkran} has to be scum bc that seems deliberate. They were the ones who didn’t think that NK was weird, and killing the last spare detractor, therefore making the day a likely fight and ensuring that the vig is favorable to them seems vital. I totally missed speculating about that aspect of the game because it just wasn’t on my radar at all as town, but that was a mistake.
Posted: Sat Feb 29, 2020 2:06 am
by Amrun
*the last fight detractor
Posted: Sat Feb 29, 2020 2:09 am
by Amrun
I wish Replica was here to hold me as I cried.
Posted: Sat Feb 29, 2020 2:35 am
by Farkran
NKA
Spoiler: N1K: Sherlock
In post 431, SherlockHolmes wrote:I don’t particularly townread chara’s content, but I do think effort leans slightly +town and this is a game with only 2 scum so they can lean slightly town for now
In post 603, SherlockHolmes wrote:Who here is townreading nacho at this point? Simple show of hands. If it’s “almost no one” which is the impression I got from skimming back through the last few pages, can we get some more votes there please.
I am steadily more and more convinced of amrun v suji being TvT.
This slot was heavily townread due to the sujimichi situation, so i didn't pay much attention to his reads, but there may be more credit here than we gave him. Hectic was a very high townread too at the time, his spare was only postponed because of Sujimichi, so why didn't Hectic die first?
I'd bet the whole game on this entire group being town. And god surely hates someone in the scumteam if the IC isn't among these. I simply do not need any scumreads this game and don't care if you don't like it. Let's just end this and go next.
In post 718, Amrun wrote:
I think Psyche is too sure about Sujimichi and it might make him scum. Whereas Sherlock I think is extremely town for how they went about it.
I thought a lot about this yesterday, I agree with you. The only issue for me was trying to figure out the scum incentive for him to push for 3/4 spares incl. Sujimichi/Sherlock. I think it makes sense if he thinks we won't actually spare the 3/4 people like he advocates, instead using it mostly to posture. That seems very plausible to me.
I don't think the spare route is worthwhile unless the town has a lot of strong early townreads. This is the only reason I listed or even mentioned a list of several people. I think this is a really important part of my gamestance to underline here: I would normally prefer lynching people for the rest of the game if we didn't already have so many good townreads available before even learning who the IC is.
I don't think scum sherlock volunteers or even seeks out the new info we have on Sujimishi. Why, even if he as scum had some other reason to read Suji's PT and sees the post, I don't think he as scum assesses it as potentially clearing the slot in this game. It's just not a priority scum has, and I think it takes a lot of deliberate attention and task-directed effort to produce the analysis of the PT post that he did. I'm about as confident in my SH read as I am in my Suji read for these public, easy to explain reasons.
The Hectic read isn't as confident. It's just a normal strong town read, which I explained earlier. Given my other reads, I'd prefer to spare someone else. By the time sparing those targets is already passed as an option, we'll either be even more sure he's town or will have to re-evaluate. But my strong townread is not just based on posts already here, but on a strong expectation that we'll get more evidence of his town mindset as the game goes on. I've said earlier - I think I'm a lot better at PoE than finding scum. My Hectic read fits into this strategy.
And then my nacho read has a similar basis to the sherlock read - he did a thing i doubt scum can organize the cognitive resources to do - but is weaker by comparison. I'd hope we could spare my other reads and even myself before committing to sparing nacho. We'll have many more posts, many more tells by then. But I'd still bet the game now that he's town, and all these reads are town. (It's a game - it's not like I'm betting a lot!)
I think that the situation where my assessment/strategy gets enough consensus for a Suji spare today is one where at least 3 people in my list end up spared even if I flake out overnight. A ball gets rolling w/ a Sujimichi spare and two clear options for a D2 spare (I imagine one will be killed) - all with the town IC still unknown! - that is hard for me to imagine scum overcoming. They just get too little wiggle room. No opportunities to PR hunt (the absence of lynch wagons that might elicit a PR claim even further this). Just an unstoppable plan with some but a quite low chance of failure.
If you really do agree at least with the
intuition
that Suji is probably town, along with SH and Hectic, then I don't know how you square the scum motive for earnestly advocating their sparing with the concrete losses to the faction associated with these outcomes. It's just not a calculation that makes sense fmpov. If I were scum, I imagine I'd commit to obfuscating rather than insisting on the significance of the Sujimishi revelation - unless he (or SH) were my scumbud or something I suppose. Is that the read of the gamestate you're leading yourself into? Because I just don't know how you do that, I don't.
In post 742, Psyche wrote:replica's honestly a blur to me so many of you are just blurs how do people play this damned game
ok lemme try:
i think there's good evidence in his iso of trying, of reaching for and game-advancing reads and ways to convince people of those things. but i give a bit more credence to what i perceive as successes at that - in my experience it's kind of easy as scum to fake trying, after all (you can get through a whole game as scum by performing "unsucessful trying" - it conveys a town motive without needlessly preventing mislynches). i don't see any grand successes that scum only have weak reasons to pursue (and should find difficulty
cognitively
at achieving anyway), so i don't have any strong townread.
but yeah, lean town?
yeesh who does that leave?
Hectic TOWN
JTheophrastus Bartholomew Who?
Asriel Dreemurr Who?
Amrun HmM
Chara hmm
Nachomamma8 moderate town
Billy Pilgrim WHO?
Chemist1422 ???
SherlockHolmes TOWN
alimdia HMM
Pine TOWN
ok i'm unsubtly asking for an updated playerlist
In post 748, Psyche wrote:if u turn out to be scum amrum i will experience a catharsis unheard of since st paul was restored the power of sight
In post 1186, Psyche wrote:chara seems a weird spare choice for today
i don't know how anyone can be
that
certain he's town
In post 1203, Psyche wrote:Ooh, I think I have a new read. I disagree w/ Farkran on a lot of things but I think I have very little doubt that he's town compared to even Hectic. Seems super obvious that he's looking for scum in all.
you are an enigma
i feel like i'm supposed to townread you, but it's just not happening
i have a few guesses why - after all, someone difficult the way you are comes up in every game - but i don't know how to find any clarity about it before you flip
Psyche ISO is particularly long, but it's full of shaky reads and reconsiderations. It points to scum!Amrun and scum!Chara mostly, but i don't think that's where we should look because - as Amrun is pointing out in the pedits i'm seeing while writing this post - killing Psyche on d2 specifically seems deliberate. But the point in question is not whether a Fark/Bingle team wants to remove Psyche, rather how a Hectic/Nacho team has no more use for Psyche.
pedit @Amrun: Replica and Chara were also strong spare pushers, their kill would lead to shoot Farkran during n4, but why wouldn't i take that over lynch farkran in d3 or d4? Killing Psyche leaves at least three people alive willing to lynch me in {Replica, Chara, Amrun}, right when a scum lynch is the worst possible outcome for a Fark/Any team. On the other hand, this reasoning also implies that scum knew when the day resolution would shift from a spare to a lynch - and during d2 the strongest pushers for a lynch were exactly me and you.
NK3: Replica
He was the highest townread and pretty much all over the place pushing for my lynch. I don't have much to say on this, other than scum's desire to push even further for a fight resolution. I would think that if Hectic is scum, he would wish for a 3S/1townF or 4S though, so... i don't know. What i learned from this NKA is that i see no
particular
reason to kill Sherlock over Hectic, but i would imagine any Amrun/non-Hectic team would have killed either Hectic, or maybe even Psyche, before Sherlock.
Posted: Sat Feb 29, 2020 2:59 am
by Amrun
I think there was a ton of reason to kill Sherlock over Hectic. Like I think N1 and N3 were brain dead scum
Kills any teams would make.
I also think it would be fairly predictable we would switch to lynch on day 3. Nacho also was a lynch supporter if you’ll recall.
