Medieval Mafia - Game Over

[DrippingGoofball]

Speaking of that, I've been mulling something over - why would Korejora counterclaim if she was Mafia and scotmany was town, when that would inevitably result in her death tomorrow? If there are two Mafia surviving (my running assumption given 18 players, two revealed strong scum roles, and some relatively weak town roles), they definitely can't afford to trade 1-for-1 with an unconfirmed if there are 5 confirmed town... they would need to unconfirm a town. I can see a few good possibilities:

1) There's one more Mafioso in the setup than I thought (I've been assuming 4 Mafia out of 18 players for a while, but there might be five), and Kore is trying to push through a mislynch for the win.
2) Korejora thinks that her scum partner is under so little suspicion that he'll get past the Masons and two days of LyLo easily (presumably Slicey or poptajo, who have been under little suspicion)
3) Korejora is gambiting in an attempt to survive EXACTLY long enough to try to force through the Mafia win (but how does this work with 2 scum when town has 5 kills and this dodges at most 3? This probably requires a gambit with 3 Mafia alive to make any sense.)
4) Given is wrong: scotmany is scum with Korejora and is trying to pull a Setesh Gambit to falseclear one Mafioso
5) Given is wrong: Korejora is town (either scotmany is scum or OGML threw a curveball)

Point against Korejora are fairly simple: she failed to vote scotmany (much less LOCK ON) when counterclaiming, and she was the counterclaimer.

Frankly, looking it over with logic, I'm wondering if the best play isn't to have Robin Hood nuke Scotmany, not Korejora (definitely not stark - I want to resolve the counterclaim NOW so we can plan around the results, though I concur with making sure Stark doesn't survive to D4). Despite her bad handling of the situation, her counterclaim makes very little sense if she's scum unless scotmany is also scum or the setup is borderline-imbalanced towards Mafia.

Noooooooooooooooooooooo

You forgot to consider that Slicey may be a mafia namecop.

That may be why he got your name right.

After 'proving' himself, he's going to pretend that he investigated Kore and that's she's Aquinas.

Then he'll try to get away with it, saying that there may be two Aquinas.

[DrippingGoofball]

Tar, there is no reason in the universe for Robin Hood to nuke scotmany. Stop smoking crack ans check into rehab.

[Slicey]

Speaking of that, I've been mulling something over - why would Korejora counterclaim if she was Mafia and scotmany was town, when that would inevitably result in her death tomorrow?

Thank you. I don't understand why DGB doesn't understand this. >_> Kore is not scum, scot just made a terrible fakeclaim and got caught.

[DrippingGoofball]

Thank you. I don't understand why DGB doesn't understand this. >_> Kore is not scum, scot just made a terrible fakeclaim and got caught.

How do you "know?"

And with the multitude of characters in the middle ages, chances approach zero that scot would fakeclaim a character already in the game. For all intents and purposes. ZERO.

Why don't you tell us what other results you have?

[Slicey]

I don't know. But I think Kore is more likely to be town than scot.

I already said my other result. I scanned Yosarian2 last night.

[Slicey]

I don't know. But I think Kore is more likely to be town than scot.

Also, I'm not only basing that on the claims, but the overall playing of the two.

[DrippingGoofball]

Also, I'm not only basing that on the claims, but the overall playing of the two.

Looking at overall play, I find it hard to distinguish one from the other on the scum scale.

Look at the claims carefully before you speak.

[Korejora]

Noooooooooooooooooooooo

You forgot to consider that Slicey may be a mafia namecop.

That may be why he got your name right.

After 'proving' himself, he's going to pretend that he investigated Kore and that's she's Aquinas.

Then he'll try to get away with it, saying that there may be two Aquinas.

What part of "kill Slicey for leading you to mislynch" did you not understand?

[DrippingGoofball]

What part of "kill Slicey for leading you to mislynch" did you not understand?

Please rephrase, but make sense.

[populartajo]

The analysis will have to wait for tonight since I got busy yesterday. Not having reread, I still think that I would be ext surprised if Slicey is scum.
Can you explain your theory again, DGB? And more clearly, why would scum need a name cop?

[Korejora]

What part of "kill Slicey for leading you to mislynch" did you not understand?

Please rephrase, but make sense.

Read my so-called "gambit". Note that I said you should kill Slicey if his result leads you to mislynch myself or scotmany. This makes no sense if both Slicey and I are scum.

[DrippingGoofball]

What part of "kill Slicey for leading you to mislynch" did you not understand?

Please rephrase, but make sense.

Read my so-called "gambit". Note that I said you should kill Slicey if his result leads you to mislynch myself or scotmany. This makes no sense if both Slicey and I are scum.

I think you should die today.

[populartajo]

DGB, THE THEORY.

[DrippingGoofball]

THE THEORY

STARK:
We don't have an alignment cop. Therefore, stark's claimed role, which is alignment-cop immune, is absurd.

KOREJOTA vs. SCOTMANY:
Korejora is meek and wimpy because she's lying. She didn't even vote scotmany. Scotmany, on the other hand, called her scum and voted her. I would put my money on Kore being scum, and scot being town. Also, Kore counterclaimed. She didn't claim first. She claimed second.

SLICEY:
Korejora wants Slicey to investigate HER. Possibly because Slicey and Kore are scum together, and Slicey will fake an Aquinas result on Kore, which they hope will make us lynch scotmany.

Thoughts?

[populartajo]

There is at least a scum between Kore and scot.
Why does Slicey have to target Kore?

[DrippingGoofball]

There is at least a scum between Kore and scot.
Why does Slicey have to target Kore?

It's not scot. Look at the timing of the claims, and their attitudes. Kore is the scum.

Now, Kore wants Slicey to confirm her name claim. Since her name claim is fake, Slicey-scum will confirm it. We would kill scot-town (according to the scumplan), and have Kore 'confirmed.'

[populartajo]

There is at least a scum between Kore and scot.
Why does Slicey have to target Kore?

It's not scot. Look at the timing of the claims, and their attitudes. Kore is the scum.

Now, Kore wants Slicey to confirm her name claim. Since her name claim is fake, Slicey-scum will confirm it. We would kill scot-town (according to the scumplan), and have Kore 'confirmed.'

If scot-town scomes up town, why would kore be confirmed?
Im leaning right now on Kore, but I need a reread.

[DrippingGoofball]

Because Slicey would 'confirm' Kore. And we'd have to kill scot first. No way scot dies before Kore. No way.

[populartajo]

Because Slicey would 'confirm' Kore. And we'd have to kill scot first. No way scot dies before Kore. No way.

Yeah, but if scot is killed and he comes up town and even worse at Aquinas, doesnt it mean that both Slicey and Kore would have to be scum together, making this a retarded play for scum?

[camn]

Hi guys.

Back from mexico... trying to catch up.

Off the cuff, I don't see Kore pulling a gambit like this... I say we lynch them both.
But I am rereading soon.

[DrippingGoofball]

Off the cuff, I don't see Kore pulling a gambit like this... I say we lynch them both.

Her daytalking scumpals might have put her up to it.

[camn]

OK.

Here is how I figure the math:

Tar has two mason buddies, right?
2 nights have gone by, and no masons have turned up nightkilled, so I am assuming that all of them are town.
Thus, my allegiance is with Tar.

SO... Tar and friends get a kill tonight and tomorrow.. and MAYBE the third day, assuming there IS one and that a solo-mason can kill while being nightkilled? (I know big assumption.. can it happen?)

That means, counting our dayvig....the numbers are as so:

NOW = 10 alive. (lets assume, conservatively, 7:3)
3 die today/tonight by town... 1 by scum.
Worst case scenario? tomorrow it is 3:3 - Lylo, since Mason Vig can still kill.

Thus I propose EVERYONE state which 3 people they would like to see Day-Vigged, Lynched, or Night-Vigged TODAY/tonight

If/Then statements are OK.. but keep it simple.

I will start

Scot
Stark
Sam

Then Slicey can Name-check Korejora tonight.
If inconsistent, then Kore Dies.

I assume at least ONE scum in those 3... so tomorrow we will be at 4:2 or 5:1.. depending on how many scum. I like those odds... considering Tar can confirm at least 1, maybe 2 tomorrow.

[farside22]

Stark should be vigged. Scot would be my second choice. I'm still trying to figure Sam out.

[Tarhalindur]

OK.

Here is how I figure the math:

Tar has two mason buddies, right?
2 nights have gone by, and no masons have turned up nightkilled, so I am assuming that all of them are town.
Thus, my allegiance is with Tar.

SO... Tar and friends get a kill tonight and tomorrow.. and MAYBE the third day, assuming there IS one and that a solo-mason can kill while being nightkilled? (I know big assumption.. can it happen?)

That means, counting our dayvig....the numbers are as so:

NOW = 10 alive. (lets assume, conservatively, 7:3)
3 die today/tonight by town... 1 by scum.
Worst case scenario? tomorrow it is 3:3 - Lylo, since Mason Vig can still kill.

Thus I propose EVERYONE state which 3 people they would like to see Day-Vigged, Lynched, or Night-Vigged TODAY/tonight

If/Then statements are OK.. but keep it simple.

I will start

Scot
Stark
Sam

Then Slicey can Name-check Korejora tonight.
If inconsistent, then Kore Dies.

I assume at least ONE scum in those 3... so tomorrow we will be at 4:2 or 5:1.. depending on how many scum. I like those odds... considering Tar can confirm at least 1, maybe 2 tomorrow.

Scotmany
Stark
Korejora

I'm of the opinion that all three of these need to die before the start of Day 4. I'd rather scotmany12 get killed before Korejora.

DGB, starting thinking things through again. If Korejora and Slicey are scum (and Kore is not Aquinas) and scotmany is town, let's see how this gambit plays out:

1) Stark (or other) daykilled D3
2) somebody (say Farside22) lynched D3
3) Masons kill somebody (say sam.samhorn) overnight (Mafia kills 1x of {poptajo, Tar, DGB, camn} overnight)
4) Slicey claims that scotmany is not Aquinas, scotmany lynched D4 (live players: 3x of {poptajo, Tar, DGB, camn}, Slicey, Korejora)
5) Masons kill Korejora or Slicey N4 (mafia kills 1x of {poptajo, Tar, DGB, camn}
6) Other of {Korejora, Slicey} lynched D5
7) Last Mason kills last other player N5 if necessary

DGB, even if there are three Mafia alive, the only way the Mafia can win here is if there are three Mafiosos alive AND the Mafia has somebody in the "confirmed" list (poptajo, Tar, DGB, camn).

Hell, we *may* be able to guarantee a draw at WORST so long as we assume no SK (reasonable). Give me a second.

[populartajo]

STARK:
We don't have an alignment cop. Therefore, stark's claimed role, which is alignment-cop immune, is absurd.

Perhaps we are all just misinterpreting his role wrong. All stark said was that it made him appear to not be an outlaw or something. You all assumed, stark included, that this had something to do with a miller.

Unvote

. I'm willing to let slicey investigate one of kore and I tonight. DGB's case on slicey makes little sense, unless she thinks there is a mafia namecop, which seems pointless.

Vote: Farside

. This is now the only lynch I shall support this day.

Do you realize that one of you is lying?
Why are you not voting kore?