Mafiascum.net

In post 2170, CarbonFiber wrote:I'm about to head to bed. Ffery, I'll get to your post later.

Mac, "so much fucking noise" is sort of the reason I haven't produced a case on RBD. I didn't intend to get them lynched today so what's the point in creating additional noise. You can't have your cake and eat it too. I

could

have produced an unnecessary case to which you might have responded with "so much noise" but pick one. There will not be a noiseless case. Also, do you really think you can be convinced to vote RBD? I don't think you are but I may be mistaken, correct me if I am wrong.

I'll make a case if I intend to get a player lynched. I am still thinking things over on whether I want to push an RBD lynch today.

~ F-16

So you expect to be alive tomorrow.

In post 2170, CarbonFiber wrote:I'm about to head to bed. Ffery, I'll get to your post later.

Mac, "so much fucking noise" is sort of the reason I haven't produced a case on RBD. I didn't intend to get them lynched today so what's the point in creating additional noise. You can't have your cake and eat it too. I

could

have produced an unnecessary case to which you might have responded with "so much noise" but pick one. There will not be a noiseless case. Also, do you really think you can be convinced to vote RBD? I don't think you are but I may be mistaken, correct me if I am wrong.

I'll make a case if I intend to get a player lynched. I am still thinking things over on whether I want to push an RBD lynch today.

~ F-16

So you expect to be alive tomorrow.

In post 2196, Just Sheep Us wrote:I am not really sure at what point I realized that RBD were serious about their claim and re-read our role realized we had the same role

Also, this seems like an odd thing to forget.

Let's say he did have to re-read his role to remember he was a miller. Do you not think that would have drastically changed his behaviour towards me in game? And if it did, do you think he'd be "really not sure" about the point this happened?

That was an interesting couple of pages.

And it totally explains what pinged for me there.

Shades of buzzword bingo.

Also, in the event I am lynched today, I just want to make this clear:

When you see me flip town, any votes on Mastin from that point onwards should be considered scum claims. If you do not trust my Mastin read knowing I'm town, you're a fucking idiot or scum. I do not believe Mastin is good enough at scum to completely avoid the ways in which I discern his scum game from his town game (and I know Mastin knows I mean no offense here; I just think this statement is true. Kudos to Mastin if they're actually scum here)

Updated Reads List:



Titan
Mac



Kagura
Stalin
RBD
RG
orcinus



Mastin
The Fox and the Hound
AP
Just Sheep Us



Carbon Fiber



Lord Business
PeregrineV
Cupcake Panda
Yukari

Notes:
1. The reads are in order based on strength of alignment aka the people at the top are more likely to be that particular alignment they are under in.
1a. The order for the in-betweens and unknown tier is the likelihood of being town from top to bottom.
2. This reads list is based on having all players having been townread and scumread, with their certain placement on this list based on which read is more probable to be true.

I do hope point 2 in particular can give you the understanding for this reads list. If you want me to give a detailed analysis on a specific player, ask away and I will post the info.

When you say based on having been townread and scumread, does that mean you've read their posts from the pov that they are town and again from the pov that they are scum?

In post 2206, Breakfast With Sandy wrote:When you say based on having been townread and scumread, does that mean you've read their posts from the pov that they are town and again from the pov that they are scum?

Yes, exactly as you say. I also read their posts without any thinking bias of their alignment (nullread). This will explain some discrepancy where more probable town members in other people's eyes are lower down the list and vice versa for scum members being a bit higher up on the list.

In post 2184, CarbonFiber wrote:Okay, I wasn't really sure when to come out with this but I am going to post it now:

IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT

We are counterclaiming Rancid Broderick Drake as a miller.

Here is our full role claim:

1) Our character name is Luke from Tales of the Abyss.

2) We are a town replica.

3) We return as "replica" to all cops.

4) We also have an ability to set up neighborhoods. Each day, we send the name of a mothership title (like Tales of the Abyss) to Cabd and he sets up a neighborhood for all the people in that title. For instance, we sent him "Tales of the Abyss" today and he set up a neighborhood for us, BRO-Desp, Nacho-Bork, and GIF. (This is the reason why I haven't interacted with Nacho in thread and I figured ffery/others would pick up on it). Based on the interactions in the neighborhood, I am massively confident that BRO and Desp are town.

-- Moving on, reasons for why we are counterclaiming now as opposed to earlier.

I honestly wasn't sure whether RBD were gambiting with their miller claim or were serious. It only slowly started to sink in at some point that they were serious about it. I was also certain enough about Mastin being scum that I was fine with a Mastin lynch followed by RBD locking themselves into a gladiate with BRO-Desp and then counterclaiming them. As it turns out, we seem to be headed toward a mislynch one way or another. I am not really sure at what point I realized that RBD were serious about their claim and re-read our role realized we had the same role. But on an initial read, I sort of skimmed through and didn't really register that we were a miller.

We claimed in the neighborhood. Only BRO-Desp were online and responded to it.

So, basically

RBD is scum

. We are counterclaiming their role. This is not a lolgambit. I don't do those. Whether or not you believe this was the optimal time to claim is always going to be debatable. I am happy to answer questions but this is going to be a 1v1 with us and RBD.

I expect other questions like why we were tunneling Mastin as opposed to RBD: I was sure he was scum. Initially we thought RBD were gambiting so didn't pay attention. Later, they claimed they would gladiate BRO-Desp so were biding our time hoping to get another scum read lynched while they lock themselves into a gladiate with an outside player (us) counterclaiming them assuring their lynch. Any other questions, we'll answer as we see them.

VOTE: Rancid Broderick Drake

Elaborate on "replica." What does that exactly mean you are a town replica?

f-16, kagura is currently voting PV and you're pretty vehemently against that lynch.

That doesn't appear to have impacted your read of them. But, now I"m very curious about your thoughts regarding Nacho's reasons for thinking PV is scum. As well as curious about the details of his read, but he hasn't been around to discuss them.

One thing f-16's claim clears up is some of the absolutely crazy-making differences in reads of my townreads.

Bro in particular was bugging me, though I felt like he's town. The strength of his scumread on RBD didn't make sense to me.

This is reminiscent of the death's diner game in some ways.

Bro, is that why you asked me about a narrative? Because the interactions between your neighborhood and RBD/Mastin/AP absolutely fit the narrative once that puzzle piece is in place.

So 36 hours to deadline? Can we decide on something?

I dont get why nobody will actually vote PV.

Im having a really hard time buying that CF sat on a miller claim for so long for no reason, especially when claiming it could get motion for an RBD lynch that he wants so bad.

In my micro that had 2 millers in it, bot hclaimed out the gates on D1 and spent time arguing with each other up front over the CC. So I mean thats sort of what Id expect to happen.

That's exactly what you'd expect to happen in a game where the millers are otherwise vanilla. When they have a positive utility ability, they have to weigh counterclaiming immediately.

And in F-16's case, with serial neighborhoods, even though we're not aware of what data will be available with flips, his millerhood would still make it into the game thanks to neighbors.

We still thinking both are town.

Beli wonders if lynching one makes sense purely to cut down on the noise going into day 2, and would lynch RBD over F-16 because of the gladiate being more likelly anti-town.

I'd rather not lynch either atm.

Also, F-16 talk to me about your LB read.

Uh, no?

You can just say "Im a miller guys" and NOT claim the rest of your roll like he did here. Miller is a role you claim up front. No excuses. Ya its possible CF is less experienced with millers, but idk. He SEEMS to know what hes doing. He seemed to get that CCing was a legit strategy and I know it didnt take him until just now to get that RBD wasnt trolling.

And neighborizer? I mean if he was a COP or something I could see wanting to lurk or otherwise go unnoticed, but a freaking neighborizer? Thats not a strong enough role to dissuade someone from playing the miller part optimally by lclaiming it.


P-edit: I think being HAted is a more compelling reason to lynch RBD but I have no interest in it.

In post 2214, Breakfast With Sandy wrote:We still thinking both are town.

Beli wonders if lynching one makes sense purely to cut down on the noise going into day 2, and would lynch RBD over F-16 because of the gladiate being more likelly anti-town.

I'd rather not lynch either atm.

Actually beli doesn't want to lynch either, also. If it comes to one or the other he'd go with RBD.

What does Beli think about lynching out of {PV, PV, PV}

In post 2216, AngryPidgeon wrote:Uh, no?

You can just say "Im a miller guys" and NOT claim the rest of your roll like he did here. Miller is a role you claim up front. No excuses. Ya its possible CF is less experienced with millers, but idk. He SEEMS to know what hes doing. He seemed to get that CCing was a legit strategy and I know it didnt take him until just now to get that RBD wasnt trolling.

And neighborizer? I mean if he was a COP or something I could see wanting to lurk or otherwise go unnoticed, but a freaking neighborizer? Thats not a strong enough role to dissuade someone from playing the miller part optimally by lclaiming it.


P-edit: I think being HAted is a more compelling reason to lynch RBD but I have no interest in it.

It comes as no surprise to me that we weigh things up differently, assuming we're motivated by the same wincon.

In post 2218, AngryPidgeon wrote:What does Beli think about lynching out of {PV, PV, PV}

He's been against it all along. His vote on PV was a sort of trap, to see who followed a path of least resistance.

I don't think that's changed.

Yes, thats great and all, but what comrpomise lynches are you willing to support? Did you ever actually follow up on your LB analysis?

Like 36 hours to No Lynch.

In post 1851, Mac wrote:

In post 1819, PeregrineV wrote:

In post 1811, Mac wrote:

In post 1803, PeregrineV wrote:

In post 1755, Mac wrote:I'm seriously struggling to follow the thought process behind this, and in fact the reason behind all this as a whole.You've randomly targetted GiF and his townread on EHAP, and then somehow spun mastin into it, and then in the end basically went "fuck it" and thrown them both pretty much back in the cage where they came from rather than trying to sort them?

I randomly targeted Kagura and Yakumo? it was not based on 1556?

And 1591 is a reduction of all the noise posting that boils it down to the facts. And those facts are the sum total of his posting.

This puts them into the (1592) null on the sum side.

In post 1591, PeregrineV wrote:Meh- they can both go on null on scum side.

What part of this confuses you or do you object to?

Okay, by "them" do you mean Kagura and Yukari, or Yukari and mastin?

Kagura & Yukari.

Mastin I am trying to form a read on, but have conflicting signals (see 1815). Since this is day1, and I'm not feeling Mastin-scum, I have no strong desire to lynch her today. Nothing anyone else has posted has swayed me other than Mastin herself.

So where does your Kagura read come into those posts you linked?

1804

In post 2221, AngryPidgeon wrote:Yes, thats great and all, but what comrpomise lynches are you willing to support? Did you ever actually follow up on your LB analysis?

Like 36 hours to No Lynch.

Some. Enough to figure out who he probably is. His offering himself up as a deadline lynch because deadweight makes me lean a little town.

In post 1853, Red Gyarados wrote:Where is this tunnel onto AP coming from? You just bee-lined for AP the instant he came into the game.

Was hoping for a spark from AP that would get the game going, at least in my eyes. Instead, he beelines towards a Mastin scumread and has now shifted into background noise. Disappointing.