Newbie 1351: Hyrule's Under Attack.. Interesting..-GAME OVER

[fferyllt]

Though I geddit that there was a fair chance that one of you would have targeted the other and hunting among the VT players was a kill more likely to go through. And Ineff or I would be good choices in that regard because we're working together, don't have each other in our scum piles, and have both directly influenced most of the bandwagon formations.

[fferyllt]

I was leaning Mac before the day started, with Z7 a distant second.

gambler's fallacy and all, but it squicks me out that my two completed newbie games both had the Doc/JK PR variant.

[goodmorning]

But the exposed PRs had some chance of protecting each other because WIFOM

[goodmorning]

Yeah, look at me not realizing new page.

[VisceraEyes]

Sure. My reasoning for protecting feryllt was...

<3

Why did you think I was a likely kill target?

You were one of the first to draw attention to GiF (along with Inef later I believe) once the Mac wagon started losing steam. You've been obviously townie all game. You're active to a fault and you're willing to rethink your position in the face of logic.

The better question would be why would you NOT be a likely kill target?

because exposed power roles.

Pfffft

[VisceraEyes]

Okay hold on. Facts. Who did GM jail N1?

[VisceraEyes]

Nevermind. :/

With jailer roleblocks not being notified this is tricky. We can't confirm whether GM actually jailed someone. So here are our options:

1) Scum fired at Mac. Mac was protected.
2) Mac only remaining scum, jail prevented NK
3) Scum fired at fferyllt, feryl protected.
4) Scum withheld shot.

Am I reading the situation wrong? Is there some other possibility?

[VisceraEyes]

Nevermind. :/

With jailer roleblocks not being notified this is tricky. We can't confirm whether GM actually jailed someone. So here are our options:

1) Scum fired at Mac. Mac was protected.

2) Mac only remaining scum, jail prevented NK
3) Scum fired at fferyllt, feryl protected.

4) Scum withheld shot.

Am I reading the situation wrong? Is there some other possibility?

This is how I see it. Unless we want to talk about GM being fake-claiming last scum (Inef would probably get down on a conversation like that) I think we should lynch Mac next.

[VisceraEyes]

Actually if GM is fake-claiming last scum, that makes 4 more likely...it would be like this in that case.

Nevermind. :/

With jailer roleblocks not being notified this is tricky. We can't confirm whether GM actually jailed someone. So here are our options:

1) Scum fired at Mac. Mac was protected.

2) Mac only remaining scum, jail prevented NK

3) Scum fired at fferyllt, feryl protected.
4) Scum withheld shot.

Am I reading the situation wrong? Is there some other possibility?

I'm more inclined to believe Mac is scum than I am GM is fake-claiming. But I can see it as a possibility and would be willing to explore that option IF Mac flips town.

[fferyllt]

Actually if GM is fake-claiming last scum, that makes 4 more likely...it would be like this in that case.

Nevermind. :/

With jailer roleblocks not being notified this is tricky. We can't confirm whether GM actually jailed someone. So here are our options:

1) Scum fired at Mac. Mac was protected.

2) Mac only remaining scum, jail prevented NK

3) Scum fired at fferyllt, feryl protected.
4) Scum withheld shot.

Am I reading the situation wrong? Is there some other possibility?

I'm more inclined to believe Mac is scum than I am GM is fake-claiming. But I can see it as a possibility and would be willing to explore that option IF Mac flips town.

That's where I am leaning.

[VisceraEyes]

Also Inef is a possibility to me too - he's crafty and thinks quickly. But he seems too emotionally invested to be scum imo.

Z could still be scum, but meh. In order for Z to be scum he'd have to have withheld his shot tonight. In a vacuum that's bad play considering how behind scum now are...every kill counts when you're the last man standing. It's possible that he could have shot at feryl/Mac, but he wouldn't have shot feryl (being one of his strongest supporters) and Mac.....eeehhhhhhhh....Mac if town was in line for today's lynch anyway. Again, in a vacuum strictly inefficient play.

[Ineffective]

Ive been lurking and observing. I will likely continue to do so for the most part.

I do have two thoughts that i am willing to share tho

Mac wasnt targeted... ..... .... ..... .... .....

I cant say i KNOW that but it seems fairly obvious.

Mafia witholding a shot is something i actually see as fairly likely. with no INV pr aside a jailkeeper that can be used strategicly to frame someone (either by being the JKclaim himself or by withholding a shot and encouraging the JK to think he jailed mafia) there is no real reason to kill at ML+1 if you are a non-mac player

[Ineffective]

also- lynching today would be a play that i would consider to be a gambit. It is suboptimal play unless both prs are real and they are sucessful at blocking a kill afterwards

[VisceraEyes]

also- lynching today would be a play that i would consider to be a gambit. It is suboptimal play unless both prs are real and they are sucessful at blocking a kill afterwards

I don't understand what you hope to accomplish with this line of thought. What's the goal? Force scum to kill someone to narrow the pool?

[VisceraEyes]

Wait hold on. That assumption forces the acceptance that scum withheld shot last night. I find that HIGHLY unlikely.

[Ineffective]

also--- if i was mafia i wouldnt bus when a bus wasnt neccesary. Seing as how GIFflipped scum, this means that mac is town if i am scum, and i declined the chance of hammering innocent blood without much repurcussion as anyone would have sympathised

Pedit - yes, precisely

also i would ask doc not to save anyone and for jk to not declare his intentions

Pedit 2 -- no it does not assume that scum with-held a shot--- it is a simple math excersize that says lynching at mylo or ml+1 is suboptimal unless a shot is blocked after the lynch

[Mac]

My first instinct, before hearing any claims, was mafia had no killed purely because as Ine said, a NK basically fucks shit up without any investigative roles. I can safely say I'll flip town; this will put doubts in your mind about a) GM's claim or b) if there is another NK, was this the person jailed?

I don't think a shot at fferyl is out of the question either because she's pretty much obvtown at this point for me & many others. GM provided fairly good WIFOM (assuming she is not fakeclaiming) and I think ff would have been a relatively "safe shot" outside claimed PRs/suspected players. Well done for second guessing that if it did happen.

The thing that worries me most is the possibility of GM fake claiming, though. She has the game in her hands pretty much if she is, imo.

[fferyllt]

yeah, purely a numbers thing. but, if we lynch questionable town today, it decreases the hiding places for scum tomorrow.

[VisceraEyes]

yeah, purely a numbers thing. but, if we lynch questionable town today, it decreases the hiding places for scum tomorrow.

This. I don't understand why we can't narrow the pool ourselves. WE control the lynch, not scum - why is it "optimal" to wait to lynch until it's too late? That seems like...very NOT optimal to me. Walk me through it.

[fferyllt]

Not only that. We might could get it right today.

[Ineffective]

Math bro.... anyone could be scum from objective POV

1/6 + 1/3 = 50% (assuming we lynch, mafia kills, we nl on mylo, lynch on lylo)

1/5 + 1/3 = 8/15

[fferyllt]

Due to playing lightning-round mafia at EM, I think Ineff probably has a better understanding of the numbers side of mafia theory. Relying on the numbers to improve chances ignores player skills, though. And IMO scum usually find ways to level things with their kills, and keep the overall level of uncertainty as high as possible.

Today's town is as smart and as experienced as yesterday's town was. That may not be the case tomorrow.

[Ineffective]

Ok i can go with lynching today --- i like gambit play anyways...

Lets just hope both prs are real and can block a shot because that will land us with superior odds after a ml on a blue

[Ineffective]

Im gunna be open about my suspicions tho.

Im pretty sure that with no deaths - if mac isnt scum one of the prs is... and... Im not sure wich one... Because my strongest POE outside of GM. Being scum was VE/Gif team and gif flipped scum

[VisceraEyes]

Cool so we're in agreement.

##Vote: Ineffective

He's playing from a position of having more information about the gamestate than I do. He seems certain we're going to mislynch today - I'm not so certain of that at all.