Mini 164: Rock Paper Scissors Mafia - Game Over

[StrykkerVerde]

I'd be willing to give my continent but not before I see how this deal that is being worked out goes.
I'll check back in a while to see whats up.

[Fuldu]

Vote Count:
Locus Cosecant - 3 (Coron, Narninian, vikingfan)
vikingfan - 1 (Locus Cosecant)

Not Voting: DarkLight140, Mr. Flay, Save The Dragons, StrykkerVerde

With 8 alive, 5 to lynch

[Mr. Flay]

Okay, here's my proposition. I'm Rock with Coron, and would like to hear from my 3rd teammate and Paper on an idea to eliminate Scissors. My allegiance should be pretty obvious from my refusal to vote for Mgm or Coron when I had the chance, but if someone can confirm it through investigation, that would be helpful. I think I'll keep my nationality secret for now.

Since it takes 5 to lynch, Scissors could end the day early by voting Locus Cosecant off themselves, although of course they'd be outing themselves by doing so now that I've said this. So if Narninian and vikingfan would unvote LC until we get this sorted out, that should freeze us in day.

With my revelation, we have five outed players and three hidden remaining, one of which is Rock. This is where it gets complicated.
(3rd Rock)
Flay (Rock)
Narninian (Paper)
Coron (Rock)
vikingfan (Paper)

Once night falls, Scissors will have two people left and thus only be able to kill. Paper can only kill; they are essentially Hit Men for this partnership.

Rock will be the only ones available to protect, therefore each of us needs to target one AND ONLY ONE person each

, without giving our choices away to Scissors.

The four who are outed need to compare and confirm who the remaining three are (not counting LC). Once that 5th blank is filled in,

each Rock on the list needs to target *either* the Paper OR the Rock immediately underneath them

(for the 3rd Rock, your choices would be vikingfan or back up to Coron). Paper can hit the two Scissors with impunity; I'll let you work out for yourselves how to order that. Scissors will try to kill two of those five, and one of several things will happen: Scissors could suceed in killing one or two people, and if they somehow caught two unprotected Rocks, then Paper would be ahead 2:1 tomorrow and win the endgame. More likely, they'll kill one or none, but either way tomorrow Scissors will be eliminated.

Obviously, the 3rd Rock's only choice is to protect me, because if we both targeted Narninian, he'd die instead of being defended. If Scissors should lock the day up before Paper can unvote to prevent a full reveal, then the plan will still work. With 5 in the alliance, someone had to be in that position, and since I proposed the idea and because I'm taking a risk by coming out, I figured it might as well be me.

Unfortunately my investigations have revealed 3 Paper and the dead Rock, Mgm. Based on Darklight's last few posts, he seems to believe that he and I are on even ground. However with Locus standing on three votes and Coron at none, I think that's wishful thinking. Therefore I'm about 80% sure he is Scissors, although he's welcome to correct me.

If the 3rd Rock will give their nationality, Coron and I (and perhaps the Paper) can confirm it.

Any questions? I'm writing this on my PDA in a business meeting so it's possible I've left something out.

[Mr. Flay]

Once that 5th blank is filled in,

each Rock on the list needs to target *either* the Paper OR the Rock immediately underneath them

(for the 3rd Rock, your choices would be vikingfan or back up to Coron).

Sorry, I rewrote this bit; it should say "

(for Coron, your choices would be vikingfan or back up to the 3rd Rock).

"

[Locus Cosecant]

If Mr. Flay doesn't want me lynched, that's good enough for me.

unvote, vote: Locus Cosecant

.

[vikingfan]

You're not getting away with that so easily, Locus.

Unvote Locus Cosecant

If Narninian is ready and willing, I'll take you up on your deal, Mr. Flay. Obviously, though, I need to know the identity of the 3rd Rock-otherwise there exists a good chance that I may nail that 3rd Rock by accident. Once I get that, Narninian and I can easily figure out which of us should target who.

[vikingfan]

Oh, and STD hasn't posted since March 19. Any chance we can get a prod?

[Save The Dragons]

I'm here. I'm confused. Too much talking, not enough death.

I'll get back to you in a little bit.

[Save The Dragons]

I'm here. I'm confused. Too much talking, not enough death.

I'll get back to you in a little bit.

[Narninian]

UNVOTE: Locus

Hmm, pretty good plan.. there are some issues Im trying to see if there is a way around, but I dont have time to think about that now.

[DarkLight140]

*sigh* I probably should have made working out the logistics a higher priority...

I'm a Scissor, of course. I hereby propose the exact same thing Mr. Flay did, with the following exceptions:

-Replace all instances of "rock" with "scissor", and all instances of "scissor" with "rock".
-Replace all instances of "Mr. Flay" with "DarkLight140", and all instances of "DarkLight140" (or that distastefully shortened and incorrectly capitalized version, "Darklight") with "Mr. Flay".
-Replace all instances of "Coron" with "Locus Cosecant", and all instances of "Locus Cosecant" with "Coron".
-Ignore anything that no longer applies or makes sense, which should be parts of the second paragraph, the third to last, and the last.

So... yeah. As should be fairly clear, my proposal is just as good as Mr. Flay's. You should, therefore, go along with mine. Because...

-I didn't target a Paper last night (as it happens, I protected Locus Cosecant instead. Given how anti-Paper he's been, that probably doesn't give me points with you guys, though.)
-I was the first one to strongly suggest that we abandon the "continually lynch Paper" plan and start allying, and even if I didn't post a valid, workable plan, I did post all the general ideas expressed in Mr. Flay's plan except specific targeting.
-I have not voted at all after that first lynch of Thrawn. Mr. Flay has- against Paper.

That's all I've got going for me, aside from one minor ace (a rather useful investigation) up my sleeve. So... ally with Scissor. Please?

If the Papers refuse, third scissor, please claim rock to mess with their heads. Mr. Flay is European, so you've got a 50% shot at getting the unknown nationality even if you guess. Luck.

[Mr. Flay]

I gave Scissors a way to eliminate Paper yesterday. They didn't take it, so today I'm making a better offer, to Paper. It's not personal, just business. 8)

They are truly symmetrical offers, with the exception that LC already has votes. It's not my 'fault' that three of my investigations turned up Paper - I was willing to work with Scissors yesterday, but that fell through. Paper seems like a rational sort of criminal organization... besides, think of it as revenge for all those times Scissors cut Paper when you were kids!

[DarkLight140]

I was working with you on that, you know. I even would have been happy to pull it off... but when the Papers plan specifically to reduce the size of my group in-thread, I've got priorities. No team can take 1-for-1 trades and survive long. Quite smooth on their part.

As for them being symmetrical, that may not be true. Based on the investigation results of Coron, Locus Cosecant, and the two hidden players, one team could easily turn out to have a distinct advantage. Aside from that, Locus Cosecant has two votes, and one of them's his. I doubt that one will stay for long.

[Locus Cosecant]

Darklight, you're a prophet.

unvote

[StrykkerVerde]

I'm the asian rep of the Rock Mafia,

Shall we do this paper?

[Narninian]

Here are my Qualms with the Plan Flay..., (or scissors flay aka Darklight140)

but I don't see any way around it.
Since I'm at work - I havnt had time to give it thought so I wont accept just yet.

No motivation for flay to protect Narninian, meaning I'm pretty much garunteed to die, and (3rd rock - strykerverde if its the truth) is gonna be killed as well meaning: Rock 2 paper 1 scissors 0 - second place for paper, prettty much gaurunteed. Unless, there would be some reason for you to try to outguess the scissors team, and make it so they wont get any kills through. That would be 3 vs. 2 a win for you, but if there outguessing involved there would be a chance for it to be 2 vs. 2. That is acceptable for me, but for Flay's plan, I see no reason for rock to not just let it be with the 2 vs. 1 result. The only thing that could throw a wrench in the plan is if scissors both attack the same rock, making it 2 vs. 2. The only motication for them doing that would be bad communication, or they want paper to win over rock.

Is there any plan involving a no lynch that could come out as beneficial for 2 teams( one of them being paper) - I doubt it would be as controlled as the current plan, because I cant think of any plan that would come out as the best thing to do at night for 2 teams, so the 2 teams would likely not follow through (Example - Last night).

Forgive Rambling, its way too busy at work and I can only do partial sentences at a time.

[vikingfan]

And StrykkerVerde's claim matches up with Coron's nicely, and I assume with Mr. Flay as well, assuming DarkLight speaks the truth.

I think I know who I'm going to go with, but before I do, I want to know one thing: Is there anything either one of you can offer the paper that the other one can't?

[Save The Dragons]

If the Papers refuse, third scissor, please claim rock to mess with their heads. Mr. Flay is European, so you've got a 50% shot at getting the unknown nationality even if you guess. Luck.

Real smooth, Scissorverde.

I

am the Asian Rock.

I personally see nothing that either plan can give better than the other.

[DarkLight140]

Well, vikingfan, we seem to be able to offer you a team that doesn't have two claimed Asians, though we're short by a member. Go whichever one of you is really a scissor!

Even if we lose, this game will go down on the record as having had some funny moments, for me at least. Everything comes together... by falling apart.

Narninian, I agree that the current plan is flawed, but I don't see anything better- it will always be to the advantage of the side with protects to protect their own. On Even worse for you, as you're the team with the swing votes, it's up to you to fulfill the first half of any bargain and then hope the other team values keeping their word over winning. So...

[vikingfan]

Well, vikingfan, we seem to be able to offer you a team that doesn't have two claimed Asians, though we're short by a member. Go whichever one of you is really a scissor!

Even if we lose, this game will go down on the record as having had some funny moments, for me at least. Everything comes together... by falling apart.

Narninian, I agree that the current plan is flawed, but I don't see anything better- it will always be to the advantage of the side with protects to protect their own. On Even worse for you, as you're the team with the swing votes, it's up to you to fulfill the first half of any bargain and then hope the other team values keeping their word over winning. So...

The same goes for us-we could value winning over keeping our word as well and succeed quite well at it. If, for example, we committed to Scissors and then after lynching a Rock, we promptly offed two Scissors(there would be protection, but considering the Rocks would probably go after the Scissors as well), that would leave us sitting nicely with 2 rocks, 2 paper and 1 scissor. Then, of course, the game would be sitting where we are now, only 3 people smaller. Not that we'd commit this scenario, but just the possibility, I would hope, would be enough to keep the team we commit to to keep their word as their team would probably be shot if they recanted and we played out that scenario.

Given the conflicting results, it makes sense, whichever side we commit to to lynch the questionable claim. With everyone either protecting or killing, cop investigations won't occur much anymore. Thus, it profits both Paper and the team we go with to lynch the questionable member. If lynched correctly, the other team will go out the window. If not, the other team is still doomed as then there will be 4 killing entities that will off that team quite nicely. Though there would be the chance for the other team to get off a kill or 2 themselves, if they could all agree on who to attack. For this reason, I want to lynch as close to the death scene as possible. Thus, I'd like to ask the people who have already posted what they are to put votes on whichever one they like between StrykkerVerde and STD. Lest you hesitate, remember that this will immensely profit your team if you are selected. If you hesitate and your team is selected, your chances of winning will go down substantially because the other team can try to discuss their choices in thread.

[Mr. Flay]

Narninian, I agree that the current plan is flawed, but I don't see anything better- it will always be to the advantage of the side with protects to protect their own. On Even worse for you, as you're the team with the swing votes, it's up to you to fulfill the first half of any bargain and then hope the other team values keeping their word over winning. So...

The same goes for us-we could value winning over keeping our word as well and succeed quite well at it. If, for example, we committed to Scissors and then after lynching a Rock, we promptly offed two Scissors(there would be protection, but considering the Rocks would probably go after the Scissors as well), that would leave us sitting nicely with 2 rocks, 2 paper and 1 scissor. Then, of course, the game would be sitting where we are now, only 3 people smaller. Not that we'd commit this scenario, but just the possibility, I would hope, would be enough to keep the team we commit to to keep their word as their team would probably be shot if they recanted and we played out that scenario.

The line about "considering the Rocks would probably go after the Scissors as well" is probably irrelevant, since Scissors would have NO defensive position if they go down to two members, and thus no need for Rock to join in for a double-kill. On the contrary, if one of us targeted a Scissors at that point, we'd protect them from the Paper kill which is otherwise guaranteed! If you try a double-cross, remember that. And if I sense that you might, I'll call this off and go back to the Scissors-and-Rock eliminate Paper gambit we tried yesterday. But anyway...

Given the conflicting results, it makes sense, whichever side we commit to to lynch the questionable claim. With everyone either protecting or killing, cop investigations won't occur much anymore. Thus, it profits both Paper and the team we go with to lynch the questionable member. If lynched correctly, the other team will go out the window. If not, the other team is still doomed as then there will be 4 killing entities that will off that team quite nicely.

I like this concept better, since STD did what I expected and counter-claimed StrykkerVerde. Locus is out as Scissors, there's no point in lynching him to find that out. At this point I'm leaning toward voting STD, since he posted once before SV and didn't come out as Rock, and his counter-claim was a one-liner. Looking back through their posts, STD played the same game I did, entirely Anti-Paper the whole way through without revealing his allegiance. StrykkerVerde on the other hand had the *weird* quote about "don't kill me, I'm on your team, Flay!" and then said he lied. Ordinarily, Lynch All Liars would make my decision for me, but this game is different. If he *did* have a result that showed I was Rock as well, but couldn't say so without damning both of us for Scissors/Paper...

Coron returns Saturday, and may have an investigative result on either of the Asians. Narninian already said he knew of no Asians, I believe...

Code: Select all

***I am setting this in code brackets because it has NOTHING to do with vikingfan's plan.***
The thought occurs that if we DON'T guess-lynch the suspicious person, but instead go with LC, then Paper can target both of the claimants tonight. DL remains alive as a token Scissor, Rock still gets to protect three people, but Coron just refuses to protect either of the claimants and protects vikingfan instead. Scissors can be lynched tomorrow with impunity, so then we see who is left of Rock and Paper for an endgame. So I suppose it's in SV & STD's best interest to find a way to convince us you're Rock...

Now back to our show...

Here are my Qualms with the Plan Flay..., (or scissors flay aka Darklight140)

...

No motivation for flay to protect Narninian, meaning I'm pretty much garunteed to die, and (3rd rock - strykerverde if its the truth) is gonna be killed as well meaning:

Two questions:
1) Why do you assume 3rd Rock will die? Coron has a choice between protecting Paper or Rock, just as I do...
Assuming all 3 Rocks survive until night, I can spell it out a little more:

• 3rd Rock protects Flay.
  
• Flay protects
  either
  Narninian or Coron.
  
• Narninian kills
  either
  remaining Scissors.
  
• Coron protects
  either
  vikingfan or 3rd Rock, wrapping back around to the top of the list.
  
• vikingfan kills
  either
  remaining Scissors.

The choices that the Rocks get create confusion on who to target. Sorry if it was unclear in my initial post.

2) Why do you assume I'll protect Rock instead of you, Narn? I may prevent another kill, thus further humiliating Scissors as they die. If I swore to protect you tonight, then Scissors would just target Coron for certain, so I won't. I don't think you expect me to, and if Scissors-Flay (DL) tries that, he's lying. All I can offer you is that it's my plan originally, and we both benefit most when Scissors doesn't know who I am targeting.

The only other thing I have to offer you for allying with Rock is that Rock was the one to come up with the strategy, and Scissors has already shown they are less than wholy reliable. In the end, it's still all about trust...even your night actions.

[Mr. Flay]

Narninian, I agree that the current plan is flawed, but I don't see anything better- it will always be to the advantage of the side with protects to protect their own. On Even worse for you, as you're the team with the swing votes, it's up to you to fulfill the first half of any bargain and then hope the other team values keeping their word over winning. So...

The same goes for us-we could value winning over keeping our word as well and succeed quite well at it. If, for example, we committed to Scissors and then after lynching a Rock, we promptly offed two Scissors(there would be protection, but considering the Rocks would probably go after the Scissors as well), that would leave us sitting nicely with 2 rocks, 2 paper and 1 scissor. Then, of course, the game would be sitting where we are now, only 3 people smaller. Not that we'd commit this scenario, but just the possibility, I would hope, would be enough to keep the team we commit to to keep their word as their team would probably be shot if they recanted and we played out that scenario.

The line about "considering the Rocks would probably go after the Scissors as well" is probably irrelevant, since Scissors would have NO defensive position if they go down to two members, and thus no need for Rock to join in for a double-kill. On the contrary, if one of us targeted a Scissors at that point, we'd protect them from the Paper kill which is otherwise guaranteed! If you try a double-cross, remember that. And if I sense that you might, I'll call this off and go back to the Scissors-and-Rock eliminate Paper gambit we tried yesterday. But anyway...

Given the conflicting results, it makes sense, whichever side we commit to to lynch the questionable claim. With everyone either protecting or killing, cop investigations won't occur much anymore. Thus, it profits both Paper and the team we go with to lynch the questionable member. If lynched correctly, the other team will go out the window. If not, the other team is still doomed as then there will be 4 killing entities that will off that team quite nicely.

I like this concept better, since STD did what I expected and counter-claimed StrykkerVerde. Locus is out as Scissors, there's no point in lynching him to find that out. At this point I'm leaning toward voting STD, since he posted once before SV and didn't come out as Rock, and his counter-claim was a one-liner. Looking back through their posts, STD played the same game I did, entirely Anti-Paper the whole way through without revealing his allegiance. StrykkerVerde on the other hand had the *weird* quote about "don't kill me, I'm on your team, Flay!" and then said he lied. Ordinarily, Lynch All Liars would make my decision for me, but this game is different. If he *did* have a result that showed I was Rock as well, but couldn't say so without damning both of us for Scissors/Paper...

Coron returns Saturday, and may have an investigative result on either of the Asians. Narninian already said he knew of no Asians, I believe...

Code: Select all

***I am setting this in code brackets because it has NOTHING to do with vikingfan's plan.***
The thought occurs that if we DON'T guess-lynch the suspicious person, but instead go with LC, then Paper can target both of the claimants tonight. DL remains alive as a token Scissor, Rock still gets to protect three people, but Coron just refuses to protect either of the claimants and protects vikingfan instead. Scissors can be lynched tomorrow with impunity, so then we see who is left of Rock and Paper for an endgame. So I suppose it's in SV & STD's best interest to find a way to convince us you're Rock...

Now back to our show...

Here are my Qualms with the Plan Flay..., (or scissors flay aka Darklight140)

...

No motivation for flay to protect Narninian, meaning I'm pretty much garunteed to die, and (3rd rock - strykerverde if its the truth) is gonna be killed as well meaning:

Two questions:
1) Why do you assume 3rd Rock will die? Coron has a choice between protecting Paper or Rock, just as I do...
Assuming all 3 Rocks survive until night, I can spell it out a little more:

• 3rd Rock protects Flay.
  
• Flay protects
  either
  Narninian or Coron.
  
• Narninian kills
  either
  remaining Scissors.
  
• Coron protects
  either
  vikingfan or 3rd Rock, wrapping back around to the top of the list.
  
• vikingfan kills
  either
  remaining Scissors.

The choices that the Rocks get create confusion on who to target. Sorry if it was unclear in my initial post.

2) Why do you assume I'll protect Rock instead of you, Narn? I may prevent another kill, thus further humiliating Scissors as they die. If I swore to protect you tonight, then Scissors would just target Coron for certain, so I won't. I don't think you expect me to, and if Scissors-Flay (DL) tries that, he's lying. All I can offer you is that it's my plan originally, and we both benefit most when Scissors doesn't know who I am targeting.

The only other thing I have to offer you for allying with Rock is that Rock was the one to come up with the strategy, and Scissors has already shown they are less than wholy reliable. In the end, it's still all about trust...even your night actions.

[vikingfan]

The line about "considering the Rocks would probably go after the Scissors as well" is probably irrelevant, since Scissors would have NO defensive position if they go down to two members, and thus no need for Rock to join in for a double-kill. On the contrary, if one of us targeted a Scissors at that point, we'd protect them from the Paper kill which is otherwise guaranteed! If you try a double-cross, remember that. And if I sense that you might, I'll call this off and go back to the Scissors-and-Rock eliminate Paper gambit we tried yesterday. But anyway...

I wasn't planning on doing that anyway. I was just pointing out that whatever team we commit to does NOT hold all the cards in terms of keeping their word. But I am planning on keeping mine.

Code: Select all

***I am setting this in code brackets because it has NOTHING to do with vikingfan's plan.***
The thought occurs that if we DON'T guess-lynch the suspicious person, but instead go with LC, then Paper can target both of the claimants tonight. DL remains alive as a token Scissor, Rock still gets to protect three people, but Coron just refuses to protect either of the claimants and protects vikingfan instead. Scissors can be lynched tomorrow with impunity, so then we see who is left of Rock and Paper for an endgame. So I suppose it's in SV & STD's best interest to find a way to convince us you're Rock...

[/quote]

So which plan were you liking better? I'm going to wait until Narninian chimes in one more time before I announce my choice.

[Mr. Flay]

It's going to depend a lot on whether we get an investigation result (from Coron) on one of the Asians. I'll get back to you after he speaks up this weekend, but I'm leaning toward guess-lynching STD still. SV's first post on this pager (#225) looks like Rock trying to figure things out, not Scissors trying to lie low, to me.

If we lynch wrong and leave 3 Scissors, some interesting things happen tonight and tomorrow, but I won't confuse the issue right now...

[Narninian]

oK - I have no idea which Asian is telling the truth...

I guess I have no choice but to come in second place, or trust in the fact that you would be willing the take away your garunteed win for a chance to 'humiliate' the scissors team.