Kidz Lemonde Stand Mini (#284) - GAME OVER


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Post Post #225 (ISO) » Mon Apr 10, 2006 1:21 pm

Post by Harry_Potter »

Guess who's *not* naive??

vote Iron Maiden
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Post Post #226 (ISO) » Mon Apr 10, 2006 1:28 pm

Post by Harry_Potter »

EBWODP

Just to make sure everyone is on the same page, I investigated Iron Maiden and got a guilty!
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Post Post #227 (ISO) » Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:36 pm

Post by Beaker »

harry, who do you believe is the second mafia??
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Post Post #228 (ISO) » Mon Apr 10, 2006 3:53 pm

Post by Ameliaslay »

Thanks for the recap Beaker... It's very interesting that
both
of our cops survived the night and a
mason
died... Speculation forthcoming... Right now I'm exhausted.
When I hear any man talk of an unalterable law, the only effect it produces upon me is to convince me that he is an unalterable fool.
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Post Post #229 (ISO) » Mon Apr 10, 2006 6:25 pm

Post by Lostprophet »

I protected the cop that had my alignment right. I was fully expecting to be dead this morning.

At this point, we might have to go with the possibility of a scum Mason,
especially
since they had to "find each other" first. Then again, Beaker, we've got no clue what's up in your corner. Finally, we might be only up against a two-man Mafia; maybe Shamrock had some GF abilities that we didn't bother to get informed about (investigation-proof, unnightkillable), or maybe Maiden's a blocker. Either way, we got one by the balls today. I'll leave my vote off for now so we can discuss the plan for tomorrow, though I think it's pretty obvious: I protect Harry, Harry investigates one of the remaining two, game, set, match.
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Post Post #230 (ISO) » Mon Apr 10, 2006 9:14 pm

Post by Iron Maiden »

... for the scumbags.

Seriously, look at your own reasoning, you assume a scum mason (WIFOM anyone?), or a 2-player mafia, with me as the remaining mafia.

The second scenario is self-defeating for you though: in that case we can afford not to lynch me even if I am the remaining scum. We lynch one of those I found guilty, and if he turns up innocent, I get lynched tomorrow.
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Post Post #231 (ISO) » Tue Apr 11, 2006 3:49 am

Post by Lostprophet »

Or we lynch you, a lying scum/Mafia investigator, I suppose, Harry investigates one of the unknowns tonight, there's no way that he can die since I'll be protecting him, and the town wins. Nice try, though.

Vote: Iron Maiden
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Post Post #232 (ISO) » Tue Apr 11, 2006 6:49 am

Post by Ameliaslay »

LP wrote:At this point, we might have to go with the possibility of a scum Mason, especially since they had to "find each other" first
Nightfall and I were masons together in Mini 254: Wages of Sin, and we had to find each other--- that would prob. be what he patterned this after.

One tiny question, since everyone is out in the open anyway, should Beaker claim?

And one for LP, why are you so sure that Iron Maiden is scum? A kill went through, and was obv. not blocked by your protection meaning neither of the cops nor the doc were targeted-- which doesn't make sense. Even if someone knew that at least one of the cops would be protected they should still target the doc and not a mason with no abilities. Which leads me to believe that at least one and possibly two claims are suspect.
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Post Post #233 (ISO) » Tue Apr 11, 2006 8:34 am

Post by Lostprophet »

I'm positive that IM is scum because he's blatantly lying about my alignment. I find it extremely unlikely that he's just insane.
Ameliaslay wrote:Even if someone knew that at least one of the cops would be protected they should still target the doc and not a mason with no abilities.
This is WIFOM to the extreme. We can't lose ourselves in going over what should have happened, only what did. We have a cop with a guilty on Iron Maiden who had Clara's alignment right, mine right, and Beaker's right (unless he wants to share something with us :P). There's no way we can let Iron Maiden live through this day.
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Post Post #234 (ISO) » Tue Apr 11, 2006 11:09 am

Post by Beaker »

you wanted a claim, I'm Timmy.T.Ball, and i'm night kill immune
i sleep with my baseball bat, and if anyone tries to kill me, i will use my bat only in self-defense, and the kill will be canceled out

i know that i'm not scum, let's look at who must be scum based on which cop is telling the truth:
1. IM honest, HP and LP lying - HP and LP scum, as found guilty by the cop
2. HP honest, IM lying - HP and who scum?? either a 2-scum team, or a scum-mason, which is, as armlx said "WTF u win, good job" deal

also, in rereading, i noticed, right after the cop claim
pbp:

193: IM votes LP, claimes cop (1 vote on LP)
194: Beak votes LP (2 votes)
195: Ame votes LP (3 votes – 1 from lynch)
196: LP’s claim – bodyguard
197: HP’s counter-cop claim – vote IM
198: armlx says needs to think

This is where things get interesting

199: Shamrock needs to think – DIDN’T VOTE TO LYNCH LP

Assuming that there’s a 3person mafia, we were at LynchOrLose, and a lynch of a townie LP would have been game over for scum
So, if LP is townie, why didn’t Shamrock (scum) lynch him??
The only solution is that LP must be scum, cause Shamrock didn’t lynch him to win the game

vote:Lostprophet
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Post Post #235 (ISO) » Tue Apr 11, 2006 11:25 am

Post by Lostprophet »

Ugh, you're ignoring what's right in front of your face. You better hope there's only 1 scum left after I'm dead.
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Post Post #236 (ISO) » Tue Apr 11, 2006 11:36 am

Post by Beaker »

what am i ignoring??
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Post Post #237 (ISO) » Tue Apr 11, 2006 12:10 pm

Post by Lostprophet »

We've caught IM lying. We have two mostly unconfirmed cops, both of which have you innocent, only one of which has anyone confirmable (H_P on Clara, who he did make efforts to protect).

Actually, I guess not ignoring so much as outthinking. You're trying to outguess the Mod, which is never a good thing. Because you're fixated on "There must be 3 scum," you're ignoring the logical choice here. We can't guess at the set-up or at the actions of dead players, only what's going on right now. And right now, I think Maiden is our best lynch, and for pretty darn good reasons.
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Post Post #238 (ISO) » Tue Apr 11, 2006 2:02 pm

Post by Beaker »

What is IM lying about?? Your alignment?

if IM is the only mafia, then lynching you wont really matter. If you die today and are a townie, which i doubt, and there are only 2 mafia, we lynch IM tomorrow, and town wins anyway.

also, if you look back through the list of games completed, there are few, if any games with only two scum

vote stands
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Post Post #239 (ISO) » Tue Apr 11, 2006 3:04 pm

Post by Ameliaslay »

Beaker wrote:also, if you look back through the list of games completed, there are few, if any games with only two scum
But the SK brings balance with two scum...?
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Post Post #240 (ISO) » Tue Apr 11, 2006 3:07 pm

Post by Lostprophet »

Ameliaslay wrote:But the SK brings balance with two scum...?
Now, don't bring logic into this...

:P
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Post Post #241 (ISO) » Wed Apr 12, 2006 4:21 pm

Post by Harry_Potter »

Considering if we hadn't found him as quickly as we did, the game would be over, I would say that yes, a SK and 2 scum would balance the game nicely.

I know its headed into WIFOM territory, but here is my question to everyone. If you were scum and just set yourself up for a naive cop claim, why would you risk it by NOT killing the real the cop?

*OR*

Why would scum not kill the real cop? The only answer I keep coming back to is that if I were scum and faking a cop claim, knew I was the only scum left, and had just convinced the real cop he was naive, I would leave him be and kill someone else knowing that whoever he chose to investigate would come up innocent anyway, which would just make him continue to think he was naive.

It would have worked too. I almost submitted Amelia's name, but then figured it couldn't hurt to try Iron Maiden, so I switched it.
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Post Post #242 (ISO) » Wed Apr 12, 2006 8:20 pm

Post by Iron Maiden »

Thanks scum, for continuing the "2 scum total theory with IM as the remaining scum".

I repeat once more: if that is the case, you can afford to lynch someone else and lynch me tomorrow. So lynch one of those I found guilty and string me up if I'm wrong. game, set and match indeed.

Confim vote:Lostprophet


wins in both cases.

That aside, the reasoning by beaker in post 234 is of course sound and further nails LP.
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Post Post #243 (ISO) » Thu Apr 13, 2006 12:54 am

Post by Harry_Potter »

Thanks scum, for all but confirming that I'm wrong and we're at lynch or lose.

"Its ok to lynch who I say we should lynch, because if I'm wrong, you can get me tomorrow, no harm, no foul, AND you win!." Author: Scum, hoping for a mislynch at lynch or lose, much?

Considering Amelia hasn't voted me, I don't think she is scum. I think that Beaker may be a Godfather, and he was balanced by Uraj's role somehow. (Mental note to ask about setup in postgame.)

I've made my case against Iron Maiden, if amelia has any questions, I'll be happy to answer, but I'm not going to keep arguing the same logic. Amelia, its up to you at this point. Everyone else is voting.
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Post Post #244 (ISO) » Thu Apr 13, 2006 1:04 am

Post by Beaker »

Possible situations:
2 mafia: (we wouldn't be at LROL)
Shamrock and IM

3 mafia:
Shamrock, HP and LP
Shamrock, IM and ?? (Amelisay??)

I trust armlx and amelisay, and haven't seen anything that would make me suspicious of amelisay, to the point where Ame would be scum-mason. i also dont think that a scum would proxy their vote, but that's pretty WIFOM
also, if IM and Amelisay were mafia, then in post 239, with LP one from lynch, Ame would've cast the lynching vote to win for the mafia, so Ame is confirmed townie to me

so: either we have IM as scum, or HP and LP as scum

there are two options today, lynch LP or lynch IM
lets go through the possibilities then

Lynch LP:
if there are 3 mafia, with Sh, LP and HP, we see LP is scum, and kill HP tomorrow
town win!!
if there are 2 mafia, with Sh and IM, we see that LP is town, and, not being at LROL, lynch IM tomorrow
town win!!

Lynch IM:
if there are 3 mafia, Sh-LP-HP, w/ IM as town, scum win
if there are 2 mafia, Sh-IM, w/ IM as scum, then town win

the obvious choice is to lynch LP today
and then tomorrow, lynch HP if LP is scum (IM as true cop and 3 scum) or lynch IM if LP is townie (HP as true cop and 2 scum)
vote stands on LP
, and i encourage ameilsay to do the same
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Post Post #245 (ISO) » Thu Apr 13, 2006 6:32 am

Post by Lostprophet »

That's a bit overeager, isn't it, unnightkillable townie? You seem to be forcing your hand awful hard.
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Post Post #246 (ISO) » Thu Apr 13, 2006 7:59 am

Post by Beaker »

what do you mean "forcing my hand awful hard"
is logic and analysis of options forcing my hand?
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Post Post #247 (ISO) » Thu Apr 13, 2006 10:57 am

Post by Ameliaslay »

Agh, the agonies of indecision. Just from the general tone of his posts I believe I'm going to
vote: LP
but it seems like I'm missing somethin here if I could just put my finger on it.
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Post Post #248 (ISO) » Thu Apr 13, 2006 2:09 pm

Post by Lostprophet »

Fantastic :roll:.

I hope to god that you didn't just lose us the game because you didn't bother to consider whether or not a claimed
un-nightkillable townie
could possibly be a convenient scum claim.
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Post Post #249 (ISO) » Thu Apr 13, 2006 2:19 pm

Post by Nightfall »

The Votecount


Lostprophet
3
(Iron Maiden), (Ameliaslay), (Beaker)

Iron Maiden
2
(Harry_Potter), (Lostprophet)


"I told you already, that guy stole the money!" Says one of you, as he pulls a small plastic badge from his pocket. "See I'm the cop!"

"No your not!" yells another boy "I'm the cop!". He too reaches into his pockets but suddenly stops.

"Well? what's in your pockets?" a third boy asks.

There's no response...

seconds later it is decided, and the second boy is strung up, and thankfully money is found in his pocket...

Lostprophet - Orsen Mocsun - Scum - Has been lynched.


It is now Night 4, Please send in your night choices.
Once Nightfall comes, everyone's dead...
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