Newbie 1867 - Game Over

[northsidegal]

at around the middle of page 6, here's where i'm at:

{nsg}
{ofhrz, Draynth}
{Etromin, Ventriloquist, VL, Nachomamma8}
{Harambey180, Ircher}

[vulcan logician]

nsg, you and I have the same scum leans. I'm really pinging hard on Ircher.

I guess I haven't really brought my A game for town. I have 2 games going right now and with my current RL commitments-- that's too many. But what besides the joke does anyone really have on me?

Where I'm at, I would support a Harambey or Ircher wagon. The only reason I would go anywhere else right now is self pres.

[vulcan logician]

VOTE: Harambe... I'm moving my vote here because his wagon has momentum, and besides... if you end up mislynching me having two competing wagons will be more information for town.

I'd rather go for ircher, though.

[vulcan logician]

*might

be (potentially) more information for town... not "will" be.

[Harambey180]

@ofrhz

I was mainly asking that to find out if people really wanted to have a player in the game that has a stronger position than others when it comes to the discussions. Some people might not want a team leader at all. Also, I'd feel pretty uncomfortable being a team leader myself and I preferred someone else would spend more time to keep everything under control because I don't fancy that.

@vulcan

I think the reason that you and nsg agree on a scumread on me is because the both of you are still sticking to what you've seen up until page 6 while we're at page 10. I would explain why but I won't repeat what ofrhz said in post #216 because that's exactly what I was thinking of as well.
What I also find remarkable is that in your post #212, which is your readslist, you have a very short explanation on all your townreads, but you have much longer explanations for your scumreads on Ircher and me. Why did you not elaborate on your townreads as much as you did on your scumreads? This looks to me like you're only pushing hard getting your scumreads lynched (which is good) but not pushing your townreads to form a townblock with them (which is also important to do).

Honestly, I'd want to get you to cooperate but I've tried that numerous times with you already and you're still my 'enemy'. Could you perhaps try to convince your townreads that you are Town as well and want to form a townblock with them? And then you could cooperate with them and try to discuss a lynch on Ircher or me.
(that would also mean that I could indeed take a 'break' from being so active because I'd have very little to do in a discussion about me, but not with me)

[Etromin]

Prod received, will compile reads and post them later today. Sorry about the lurking, it becomes too easy for me to get the notification on my phone, read it, and then put off any kind of response for when I'm on my computer, at which point I'll forget/get distracted. At any rate, I'll go through isos and produce something useful (hopefully).

[vulcan logician]

@Harambe: I'm on page 10, man. But it doesn't follow that just because we're on page 10, everyone ought to ignore page 2.

Those reads were fashioned from notes I took after an ISO. They are what they are. I also felt that, if I was going to make a solid scum case, I'd better go into detail. My mindset for my reads was not to make a strong towncase for anyone, mostly to name who I think are scum at this point and why.

I'm not like a great many players who consider their current scum leans "the enemy"... afterall, I can't be 100% that they are. I am neither 100% sure of you OR Ircher, and I am aware of the fact that it is bad practice to ignore you as town candidates too.

Fair enough, I really ought to elaborate on how your response came off as contrived. As ofrhz pointed out, my read was rather shallow in that regard.

[Harambey180]

Still I found it very odd that your read was based solely on the first half of pages and not on the second half of pages because if you included them then your read would be much different.
But whatever, I'll keep trying then. Kinda hopeless to try though but I will.

[Ircher]

I stilll think the Vulcan Lynch is the way to go unless we want to flashwagon outside:
Vulcan
Ircher
Harambey
Ofrhz
Nacho

[vulcan logician]

Still I found it very odd that your read was based solely on the first half of pages and not on the second half of pages because if you included them then your read would be much different.
But whatever, I'll keep trying then. Kinda hopeless to try though but I will.

Part of the problem is that the second half of the pages still chiefly concerns page 1-3 events. I based my reads on notes I took from ISOs. I can't help it if those ISOs largely centered on page 1-3 stuff. IDK... at this point I am convinced there is at least 1 scum on my wagon. Maybe my mislynch is the shot in the arm this game needs.

[ofrhz]

I'm about halfway through typing up a readslist with explanations but I'm out of time so have a summary instead

Town

Harambey, Nachomama, Draynth
---
Ventriloquist, Alciel/NSG
---
Vulcan, Ircher, Etromin

Scum

You would join a Vulcan wagon, esp. near deadline, correct?

my b I didn't mean to still be voting for my top townread

VOTE: Vulcan logician

L-1

[Harambey180]

I continue to see vulcan as super-noob-Town (with all the respect for vulcan, I can't help it). Super-noob, but Town. Now the question is: do I want a super-noob player in the game? Besides, is there a player that has a higher chance of flipping red? There's not really a much better option there either. Would a flip on vulcan give information (besides what happens in the night phase)? Yeah I think so.

Intent to hammer

I have to make sure I'm not mistaken and trapping myself. Probably by ISO'ing but that won't happen today and if it happens tomorrow, it's going to be late.

[ofrhz]

Mostly complete except for Nachomamma and Alciel/NSG, but I didn't really have any innovative thoughts on those two slots anyway.

Town

Harambey

I liked his thought process behind his read on Ventriloquist; it was nuanced, took into account both Vent’s experience and the sluggish game state of the time. This is in addition to him trying to instigate conversation as a sign of discomfort with the inactive game state, which is consistent with him voting for inactive players and his willingness to yield town leader. I think his carefulness to not be misrepresented and to not misrepresent others also feels townie.

Draynth

I was town reading him for posting more decisively than in a previous mutual game where he was scum (Open 721). Things like his arguments with Harambey (both the one about voting for Ircher while he was V/LA and the later 1v1) feel like things he wouldn’t do as scum. He’s more abrasive here, whereas in Open 721, when he was scumread, his personality felt saccharine (like, fake nice).

Null

Ventriloquist

The only thing that stood out for him was he didn’t vote for Ircher in 142.

Scum

vulcan

I think I've already elaborated in my previous posts but the tldr is that I didn't like his initial jump onto the Ircher wagon or his recent readslist

Etromin

I don’t like how she plays the newbie card in 160. It’s not that’s she’s new; it’s also how she is undermining her own reads from the outset and could be building up to a “hey I’m new so that’s why my reads make no sense” as an excuse for faking reads

Ircher

After his pressure on vulcan's joke, his presence in the game sort of dropped off. I disregarded his pressure on the joke earlier as "town with a very methodical style of play," but I think if someone who were to harp on something like the joke, he would probably be able to find other threads to push even if this game was relatively inactive. He has also said that he is wary of people playing the newbie card, but seems to be letting people slide in that regard. I do think it's unlikely that Ircher/vulcan is a pair though.

[ofrhz]

Shouldn't we wait to get other people's thoughts down before hammering?

I would really like to hear more from NSG, Etromin, and Vent

[Nachomamma8]

@Huntress: Could we have a 48 hour deadline extension?

I'd like to give NSG a chance to catchup and have an impact on this game day at the very least.

[Nachomamma8]

ofrhz:

I'm most certainly not as high on him as everyone else, and the more I read his ISO, the more I dislike him.

I found this reasoning to be a bit of a stretch. It doesn't play much into my overall read because of how early game it was (it's normal to push crappy reasoning at that point in time just so something happens), but I still don't like it.

I don't like his extended push on Vulcan. It began with this. The implication is that Vulcan saying his joke was obvious is somehow equivalent to him testing the waters on an Ircher lynch, which is something I don't actually think is true. Vulcan said that he thought it was odd for anyone to take him seriously there, which is a definitive statement and not at all of the "what do you guys think of x?" nature of testing the waters. Him attacking a shallow Vulcan read here seems convenient; it's not at all a difficult attack to make, and it's coming at a time when Vulcan looks like he'll be the lynch of the day. I also don't like how it seems he's starting to sound like he has doubts here, but when it looks like Vulcan's wagon is going through, he just sort of ignores them and keeps on trucking.

In general, one of the stronger reasons I have for scumreading him is that his reads feel completely detached from his pushes, which comes across as extraordinarily unnatural. In his #150, Harambey is apparently his strongest scumread, but 60 posts later by Harambey's #210, Harambey is suddenly his strongest townread. He says that his reasoning for Vulcan here is apparently something that was pretty significant to his read on Vulcan overall, but it certainly didn't seem like something he felt strongly about at all. Him forgetting where his vote was placed *could* just be general detachment with the game, but in this context, I think that it's a good example of how detached ofrhz is from the things that he's saying this game, which is far more indicative of scum with no emotional attachments to the game whatsoever than town.

Vote: ofrhz

[Nachomamma8]

Also, a couple of questions:

@Draynth:

Now that the game you played with ofrhz is over, could you talk about the similarities you see in that one compared to this one?

@ofrhz:

You said that you didn't like Ircher's lack of engagement after picking on vulcan's joke. I'm assuming that you didn't read the catchup posts he made after post #27 in his ISO. Could you read them and give me an opinion on them?

[Nachomamma8]

I continue to see vulcan as super-noob-Town (with all the respect for vulcan, I can't help it). Super-noob, but Town. Now the question is: do I want a super-noob player in the game? Besides, is there a player that has a higher chance of flipping red? There's not really a much better option there either. Would a flip on vulcan give information (besides what happens in the night phase)? Yeah I think so.

If you think that someone is town, cling to them, defend them, and don't let them get lynched.

For one, if you are more concerned with lynching the player whose abilities you trust the least as opposed to the person who is more likely to be scum, then you'll always end up losing to players that are more skilled than you. Secondly, taking away easy mislynches from scum is, in my opinion, one of the better way to catch a skilled scum player; scum need a certain number of mislynches in order to win, and if town doesn't let them get those mislynches, they lose.

[Nachomamma8]

These are a few things giving me doubt on Vulcan atm:

1)

At this point I recognize that others are better at the game and follow their lead, especially early in the game when gut reads seem more important. (I suck at the gut reads/reading emotions aspect.) Later in the game, when more information is available I do better. I enjoy the evidence/analysis/logic part of the game the most. When the skillful players are all NKed, I have no trouble stepping up and filling their shoes.

This seems like a very genuine sentiment to me, which is important to me because my largest concern with the vulcan right now is the fact that he doesn't really seem to be generating a whole lot of original content aka he ends up following people around without really acknowledging or realizing it. I don't think that this is at all an uncommon or unreasonable sentiment to have; early game is very often the most difficult portion of the game to understand because it's generating information out of thin air, trying to understand people and their motivations despite you have nothing to understand them with and there's not really a strong motivation to do anything.

2)

if you end up mislynching me having two competing wagons will be more information for town.

Maybe my mislynch is the shot in the arm this game needs.

If Vulcan is scum here, then this is very excellent touch in a game that's otherwise been very underwhelming. The reason that I like these posts is because Vulcan is making sure not only that the town is in a good position when he's gone, but he's also trying to reassure that maybe his mislynch won't be all THAT bad, which is a very genuine sentiment. It could be faked from a very skilled scum player, but I don't think that's what's happening here - I think that the more classically effective move for scum here is just to post more and take more definitive stances as opposed to some sneaky emotional manipulation.

[Nachomamma8]

@Vulcan:

Part of the problem is that the second half of the pages still chiefly concerns page 1-3 events. I based my reads on notes I took from ISOs. I can't help it if those ISOs largely centered on page 1-3 stuff. IDK... at this point I am convinced there is at least 1 scum on my wagon.

If you think that everything that's happened in this game just has to do with pages 1-3, then I don't think you're trying to analyze the game too hard. Here, you get the sense that there's scum pushing your wagon through, and then you stop - if you feel there's scum pushing your wagon, then that's a fantastic starting point and a way to make them pay for attempting to push through a mislynch on you. If you roll over and accept a mislynch, you're doing the town a huge disservice; maybe they win anyways, but if you go down doing anything but kicking and screaming, then nine times out of ten, they're winning despite you instead of because of you.

This is the wagon on you (with Harambey's intent to hammer, just for fun):

Ircher, Nacho, Draynth, ofrhz, Harambey

Ircher is voting you and you're scumreading him primarily for misinterpreting your joke, which I believe is a lazy read. I've brought up earlier that I don't think most scum would view that joke as an opportunity to press for lynch (it's not the type of things lynches are typically made of) - did you have a response to that? He also has acknowledged a couple of times that his pushing there was unreasonable, and his case has been modified to something completely different now - have you made a good faith effort in understanding and engaging it? I don't think so.

Draynth is scumleaning you because you agreed with his push on Ircher, which he disagrees with in retrospect. Do you think that's a valid reason for him to be pushing you right now?

I've talked about why I think that ofrhz's push on you is opportunistic and scummy. Am I insane? Am I on to something? Why?

Harambey did say that he had intent to hammer you, but he also called you town while he did so. Why would he do this as scum? Don't you think he's just putting himself in a crappy position if you flip town here?

[Nachomamma8]

Etromin hasn't yet given an opinion on what she thinks is scummy/townie, which is certainly problematic in and of itself, but means that I don't actually have a read there.

I liked Alciel's RIGHTEOUS INDIGNATION when questioned. I'm waiting to see if NSG sees Harambe's towniness like I do, and am waiting for her to be more caught up in general.

I've liked Ventriloquist's catchup, but I'm waiting to see how they interact with the game in real time. I am very much hoping that they come back.

If we sprung a lynch in these three I'd very much advocate the lynch going to Etromin, but I'd much rather get more content from all three of these before doing anything if possible.

[Ircher]

I continue to see vulcan as super-noob-Town (with all the respect for vulcan, I can't help it). Super-noob, but Town. Now the question is: do I want a super-noob player in the game? Besides, is there a player that has a higher chance of flipping red? There's not really a much better option there either. Would a flip on vulcan give information (besides what happens in the night phase)? Yeah I think so.

Intent to hammer

I have to make sure I'm not mistaken and trapping myself. Probably by ISO'ing but that won't happen today and if it happens tomorrow, it's going to be late.

I mean, I have to admit that I think the possibility of Vulcan being newb!town exists (with a decent probability); however, I haven't really seen much better because half the game pretty much lurks. (And I've been kinda actively lurking...)

[Etromin]

Oh jeez. I tried to get down and make a full readslist based on isos, but apparently I have a lot more other stuff to do then I expected. I don't know if I can keep up this game. How would I go about replacing out?

In the meantime, here's what I got up to while reading through Drayth's iso:

Spoiler: Draynth ISO reads, up to post 134

I know that the seeming juxtaposition of posts 51 and 58 looks like a scummy thing, but the opacity there was justified, in that he was attempting a pressure vote. I probably would have given at least some reasoning there.
Posts 61 and 66 feel uncomfortable to me. He seems to be doing a lot of confrontation without actually giving much to back himself up. I don't quite connect it to being scum, but it still strikes me as odd.
And in 71, he quickly says that his vote on me was for the reasons I guessed. He doesn't seem to produce any justification of his own, and that makes it look like he doesn't actually have any.
Okay, in 127 he produces some reasoning, but it's really kinda weak and he seems to be covering his back with the emphasis on it being his opinion and based on his experiences.

[Huntress]

bumpity

[Huntress]

bump