Page 10 of 82
Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2020 12:38 pm
by Grumpy Cat
The biggest reason to keep the higher positions around are because some of them will self-resolve by virtue of being NKed. The numbers do not lie though.
I don't see colours, I only see in 1s and 0s.
Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2020 12:43 pm
by Hoopla
In post 224, Something_Smart wrote:Also, italicizing
might
is pretty disingenuous. According to your stats DrDolittle for instance has a 30% chance of being mafia. That puts him at a 70% chance of being a town PR, and probably a strong one as well.
in my eyes, the damage scum can do with vigs/PGO's/redirectors etc. is worse than the value a town PR can yield in slot number 1. because if they're town, they're likely to be blocked/NK'ed/redirected etc.
winning top of the draft actually kinda sucks as town since you're a magnet for interference. whereas scum in top slots can wreak havoc because town's tend to leave them unchecked out of fear.
sometimes you have to step up and execute PR's or PR claims to win games.
Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2020 12:47 pm
by Hoopla
In post 225, Grumpy Cat wrote:The biggest reason to keep the higher positions around are because some of them will self-resolve by virtue of being NKed.
^this is decent a counter-argument to leaving top slots alive.
anyways, this is probably enough naval-gazing theory pontification from me, so i'll let others jump in as i read the thread.
Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2020 12:53 pm
by Something_Smart
Redirector I'll grant, but the thing about scum redirector is they kinda have to claim cop. And then pretty soon you have the issue of, well hold on, why hasn't the claimed cop died yet? And they have to keep giving results and if they're the last scum left those results have to be accurate... and meanwhile the redirector shot is only one-use, and it could end up doing nothing.
With 1-shot vig or 1-shot PGO, sure they can get one kill. Getting more than one kill as PGO is quite unlikely, especially since as you said people tend not to target the higher-ups on the list. But when they have to claim, again they will probably have to claim their real slot, and then it's going to be obvious where the second kill came from.
Roleblocker and jailkeeper I will again grant, but again, if it ever becomes obvious that one of these roles interfered in an action, then the person who claimed the flip side of that role is immediately in trouble. And scum near the top can't just not claim their true slot, because odds are someone down below them tried for it and failed, and if they claim VT then it will, again, probably become apparent.
So I'm really not scared of any of those roles. On the other hand, I am scared of killing a town cop, or a town tracker, or a town doctor, or a town vig, or a town universal backup.
Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2020 12:53 pm
by Something_Smart
In post 227, Hoopla wrote:anyways, this is probably enough naval-gazing theory pontification from me
what, you don't like watching boats?
Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2020 2:49 pm
by the worst
In post 98, the worst wrote:
hey talk to me about this? i don't think it was random, and that is a weird and mystical and exciting feeling.
Greeeeeen Cryaoooonnnnnsssss
Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2020 3:05 pm
by Green Crayons
I already responded. Twice.
Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2020 3:21 pm
by Clover Ebi
Hm, Grumpy Cat can you talk to me on why you think scum are less likely to take the stance Green Crayons did? He was the first person I was getting some wolf pings on not because of him going after the fake hammer but because I disliked the reasoning/way they worded it.
I get the reasoning of scum not wanting to take the lead, but I feel like that's more player dependant than anything from what I've seen. I also like hat guy who's name I forget at the moment!
Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2020 3:23 pm
by Green Crayons
I didn’t fake hammer.
Please read the game.
Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2020 3:24 pm
by Clover Ebi
I'm also not the type of person to put much value in the placement of a slot on the list besides the number thing mostly because that just seems silly to go for. I mean yeah it gets you some towncred but willingly taking lower numbers? Gosh, that has to make you pretty confident. But there's probably not much to go into on this until later on.
pedit: I never said you did?
Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2020 3:26 pm
by Green Crayons
In post 232, Clover Ebi wrote:Green Crayons did? He was the first person I was getting some wolf pings on not because of him going after the fake hammer but because I disliked the reasoning/way they worded it.
Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2020 3:26 pm
by Clover Ebi
Your entire iso is about going after the dude who faked it and then you changed your vote, it seemed pretty odd to me because you felt really stubborn about it from when I was reading. Then you go on to make another statement about it that makes it so any kind of defense would be seen in a bad late all while still keeping your vote on Ico. It's just odd to me!
pedit: You're reading it wrong
Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2020 3:35 pm
by Green Crayons
Oh I see.
Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2020 4:05 pm
by Umlaut
Okay, I'm starting to read
This is going to be one of those games that hits page 80 halfway through day 1 and I never quite catch up, isn't it
Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2020 4:15 pm
by the worst
In post 115, Something_Smart wrote:Am I gonna have to bring up the
duck
dragon
elephant in the room regarding Hoopla's plan?
The people toward the top of the list are more likely to have PR's. And, uh, PR's are how you win games.
wait literally anyone was taking her plan seriously?
Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2020 4:16 pm
by the worst
you always bring the meme
Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2020 4:16 pm
by Green Crayons
Certainly hope not.
Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2020 4:17 pm
by Green Crayons
In post 220, Hoopla wrote:an example of how we should use number analysis;
- gypyx is 11th in the draft (a low frequency slot for scum)
- he also chose 11 (a low frequency selection for scum)
- he is also on a doubled up number (an average frequency outcome for scum)
i'd want to be quite confident gypyx is much more likely scum than random if we're to wagon there.
I mean this is fine but don’t know if she was ever really saying let’s elim from top down.
Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2020 4:17 pm
by the worst
In post 147, iamausername wrote: In post 115, Something_Smart wrote:Am I gonna have to bring up the
duck
dragon
elephant in the room regarding Hoopla's plan?
The people toward the top of the list are more likely to have PR's. And, uh, PR's are how you win games.
this post feels fake.
VOTE: Something_Smart
I could think of like 3 reasons to vote ss for that post and it feeling fake is probably directly opposite to all of them.
Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2020 4:18 pm
by the worst
why did you vote username here
Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2020 4:19 pm
by the worst
How did you know I was greyice? wow.
Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2020 4:20 pm
by the worst
This is a fairly poor choice imo
is it a scummy choice? meh
Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2020 4:23 pm
by the worst
no
In post 205, Datisi wrote:s_s and drd are my "my gut is telling me this person is town but i have no reasoning to back it up with" reads
Same
In post 205, Datisi wrote:i have a sorta scumread that i'm gonna sit on for a bit more
is it username or grumplez
Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2020 4:24 pm
by the worst
ohey green I actually liked
Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2020 4:25 pm
by the worst
In post 211, Grumpy Cat wrote:Green Crayons accurately ascertained Gypyx was faking a reaction after being fakehammered. Scum are less likely to take that accusatory route given they have no reason to think town!Gypyx is lying there, and no one else had seen his reaction as fake.
Gypyx's response was.......very cheesy but yeah I did like that Green was the first person to call this out