Posted: Wed Oct 20, 2021 3:31 am
Wouldn't a PR getting NK still be a bad outcome for town?
This is a completely fair assessment.In post 227, Jake The Wolfie wrote:Clearly, if we target a player who has a Power Role, the obvious conclusion is to CFD onto Not_Maifa
I should say that while from your POV it is mathematically most likely that the team is one SE/one newbie, since there are 4 of each, alignments are randomly distributed and this is a dangerous line of thinking to get caught up in. Oftentimes on Day 1 you're just not going to have strong leads and scum aren't going to announce their presence to the game thread. The idea about newbies being quiet also feels a bit out of place, while kenny and binatog haven't said much, the rest of you are all decently talkative. Best to just forget the status tags and evaluate everyone based on their content in the game so far.In post 208, hops wrote:I'm a bit too busy to sort out my hunch right now, but I was feeling that there is at least one SE on the scumteam. I just feel like we'd see firmer tells from a two newbscum team. I also have the suspicion that one of the newbies are waiting for a busy SE scum to approve their plans before saying anything, but since so many newbies are being quiet I'm not sure if I can narrow down the pool of suspects.
It may not be a good way to scumhunt, but so far there has been little substance to why Greeting has scumread me. I find it strange that he wouldn't give a good argument for coming out at me.In post 229, catboi wrote:For what it's worth, while it can be useful to look at and consider who someone's teammate could b, as this can lead to clearing someone if they just don't plausibly have a partner, I try to emphasize every game that it's not good to get too caught up in pre-flip associations and hunting for teams, especially on day 1, as that can often lead down false paths. Townies will often have incidental associations between each other that might look bad, and I've seen new players in multiple games go down rabbit holes of thinking they had a team found that led them astray. It's not a good way to scumhunt. I don't like that line of defense from Jake.
Do you think Greeting is scum pushing you as an elimination, then?In post 231, Jake The Wolfie wrote:Greeting hasn't really said why he scumreads me, only that he scumreads me. It's not really riveting evidence towards me being scum, just someone's opinion. If Greeting ever decides to case me, then I would have something to argue against, but for right now all I have to go off of is that they scumread me for unknown or even nonexistent reasons.
I don't think that Greeting is necessarily scum here, but I would need to see more from him before I decided.In post 233, catboi wrote:Do you think Greeting is scum pushing you as an elimination, then?In post 231, Jake The Wolfie wrote:Greeting hasn't really said why he scumreads me, only that he scumreads me. It's not really riveting evidence towards me being scum, just someone's opinion. If Greeting ever decides to case me, then I would have something to argue against, but for right now all I have to go off of is that they scumread me for unknown or even nonexistent reasons.
I reevaluated said game as well. And I guess I was a little bit over the top in the starting phase there. And there was way more happening in that game that got me to form theories.In post 232, catboi wrote:VOTE: kennyk
I like hops a lot. Although a lot of people were quick to shoot down her theory about Jake being late to confirm, and I'm not on board with the reasoning, I don't think it's the type of theory a newbie scum player comes up with. Further posts have all had that good scumhunting energy, trying to move things forward, coming up with ideas, examining players, just looks like she's trying to solve the game. Easy townread there, I think.
I like Greeting as well although it's more of a soft lean than a full-on townread. Wouldn't support eliminating him but can't back it with full confidence.
Feelings on DaTacoX are even more slight but enough toward the good side based on recent posts.
I went back to review kenny and it feels like he's reactive and mostly responding to things with factual statements. He's too guarded, hasn't had any real suspects. In the previous game I was briefly with him in, despite not playing for over a decade, he was quick to out theories and suspect people just for wagon votes in RVS and the like, it felt like there was real momentum from him. Here, I get none of that in anything he's said, and even if the game started somewhat slow, it feels as though he's struggling to form an opinion onanything, and I think in all likelihood it's because he's mafia here and is afraid of making waves.
Then why are you choosing to unvote without picking a different candidate?In post 223, kennyk wrote:No, I don't have any better candidate. The most ideal outcome of day one would of course be a scum elim (most prefered the roleblocker or the rolecop, if the setup has one of them in it). But the chances to get that result are at about 22 % (if I did the math right).In post 216, Greeting wrote:Do you have a better candidate to vote out? If the answer is yes then whom and why? If the answer is no, then what would be the most ideal outcome of Day One in your opinion?In post 211, kennyk wrote: It is always right to consider who might be the second scum. But one has to also consider that the two scum players might not have acted obviously connected. If they coordinate very carefully they might leave no visibal connection whatsoever. This is especially true in day one where there is not much evidence in any direction.
As it is highly unlikely to identify both scum players on day one and vote one of them out by majority, I won`t condemn someone who votes someone else out but has no obvious scum partner at hand. And if I read everyones reads correctly, there are not many townreads overall. So there are always many possible scum-partners around.
I might not agree with Greetings read on Jake and the consequences he makes out of them, I agree with him in taking one step at a time.
And as there seems to be a wagon building on Jake with me sitting in the front row, I would like to remove my RVS vote:
UNVOTE: Jake
I am implying that on Day One it's better to vote someone out rather than no one. A no elim vote towards the end of Day One is kind of washing your hands off any potential decisions.In post 241, MegAzumarill wrote:You are implying they should try to vote out someone they don't eant to???
Unvote =/= no elim voteIn post 243, Greeting wrote:I am implying that on Day One it's better to vote someone out rather than no one. A no elim vote towards the end of Day One is kind of washing your hands off any potential decisions.In post 241, MegAzumarill wrote:You are implying they should try to vote out someone they don't eant to???
Quoting you to confirm that I've seen your post and I will summarise my suspicions tomorrow.In post 242, Jake The Wolfie wrote:Greeting, please lay out your case for why you think I am scum for everyone here.
I have a small feeling that you don't have one, but I also want to give you the benefit of the doubt in case you simply haven't had the time to make one yet because you weren't directed to give your case.
What makes you think kennyk ever supported the jake wagon?In post 245, Greeting wrote:I'm getting more suspicious of kennyk right now. I think that attempting to avoid any responsibility for a miselim is a scummy thing to do.
If Binatog is put at E-1 and the options are either hammer them, noelim or hammer someone who isn't Jake, N_M or kennyk, I will hammer.
Quoting you to confirm that I've seen your post and I will summarise my suspicions tomorrow.In post 242, Jake The Wolfie wrote:Greeting, please lay out your case for why you think I am scum for everyone here.
I have a small feeling that you don't have one, but I also want to give you the benefit of the doubt in case you simply haven't had the time to make one yet because you weren't directed to give your case.
What narrative are you trying to push now?In post 246, MegAzumarill wrote:What makes you think kennyk ever supported the jake wagon?In post 245, Greeting wrote:I'm getting more suspicious of kennyk right now. I think that attempting to avoid any responsibility for a miselim is a scummy thing to do.
If Binatog is put at E-1 and the options are either hammer them, noelim or hammer someone who isn't Jake, N_M or kennyk, I will hammer.
Quoting you to confirm that I've seen your post and I will summarise my suspicions tomorrow.In post 242, Jake The Wolfie wrote:Greeting, please lay out your case for why you think I am scum for everyone here.
I have a small feeling that you don't have one, but I also want to give you the benefit of the doubt in case you simply haven't had the time to make one yet because you weren't directed to give your case.
You seem to be saying the jake wagon is a mislim yet you still push them?