In post 183, Flea The Magician wrote:Mastina knows my scum game, and knows I thrive more on scum because I actually find it easier to make reads as scum. I also have a pretty comprehensive wiki, which miraculously seems to have been forgotten about.
My scum games do such admittedly, but it's no secret I play for fun over form.
I'm also strong mislim bait because of my erratic behaviour and thought patterns.. the PoE seems too convenient to me and the reasoning lacks her usual convictions.
You think I didn't check your wiki, but actually, I did,
clicking on this link.
In the descriptions, not once is their a statement of preferred alignment. You have your "best bits" section (which gives no inkling of your preferred alignment). You have your record there. (8 scumgames, 3 wins; 33 towngames, 19 wins.)
But nowhere is there any indication of an alignment preference in the wiki.
There's no way to tell from your wiki alone an alignment preference--absolutely none.
The only way to tell? By your statements in past games. And I said exactly the truth there:
In post 173, mastina wrote:House I think has stated his town/scum preference before, but I sadly can't remember it and he has no real wiki so I have to keep him in the pool
for now
until I track it down.
Ditto for Flea;
fae might've stated faer preference but
.
I don't remember. It's NOT on your wiki, and I don't remember, so it's something I don't have the resources to know about. Not on your wiki, my memory being shit, and thus, I could not remove you from the POE.
Well I'm already townreading you and Titus for a start, but Galron? Every post of his makes me lean town.
67 and
74 in particular.
While this doesn't clear Galron because it's very weak, it is supported by my thesis.
We had nine players claim town preference.
Enchant claimed mafia preference.
If we assume Enchant did not get mafia with his preference and if we assume the mod prioritized giving players their preferred alignment, then that means three players submitted mafia preference aside from Enchant.
Those players would then have needed to lie about their preferred preference.
Their options were: {not stating their alignment preference, stating No Preference, stating town preference}.
Only three players stated No Preference.
Furthermore, scum who would lie about their alignment preference are psychologically more likely to say they submitted town, both because it's the direct opposite of their actual choice
and
because they would be afraid that if they said "No Preference", it'd put them in the elimination pool.
The reason for this is that the scum did not know the full math behind my mechanical reasons for asking about alignment preference. They'd have a fear that by saying "No Preference", they could be seen as scum. After all, what do you suppose happens if there's 9 players submitting town preference, 1 player submitting mafia preference, and then 3 players submitting No Preference? If that were to be the case, then 2/3 at minimum of the players submitting No Preference would be assigned Mafia due to prioritizing giving a town preference to every town player.
If the mod gave town to every player who submitted town preference, then the pool of scum would be limited to No Preference and Scum Preference.
Scum lying about them having submitted Scum Preference in favor of No Preference gives them no tactical advantage. They're still in what they'd assume to be the scumpool.
Scum lying about them having submitted Scum Preference in favor of Town Preference gives them a distinct tactical advantage. It prevents every player who submitted Town Preference from being conftown'd and better hides them and has a higher chance of keeping them out of the scum pool.
And thus, every player who claimed No Preference is going to be town.
In post 199, Galron wrote:why would I be [probably] town, as opposed to [full] town Taly and Titus? It is stated that the particular names are important, so is personal meta involved?
Personal meta is involved, yes.
Titus would, as scum, know that stating she submitted No Preference (when actually submitting Scum Preference) wouldn't have actually done her any good. (Or so she thought.) Titus would, as scum, have thought that saying she submitted No Preference would keep her in the scumspect pool just as much as having said scum preference.
Taly
would similarly think these things. I believe his No Preference as a result, and it's actually because he submitted No Preference that I think that all No Preferences are town (because, he's not going to be lying about No Preference, and if he got town, that indicates those who truthfully submitted No Preference were basically automatically assigned town).
You're less of a certainty because you're inexperienced in comparison to Titus and Taly. You, as scum, could
maybe
not have realized that submitting No Preference wouldn't take you out of an assumed POE.
But while you're not a certainty, you're still a probability of being town.
