Micro 1058: Is This Thing Loaded? -- Game Over!

[Ph0enix]

Another pagetop, nice.

[Frogsterking]

So I feel pretty good about Dunnstral as town. Will probably wait to see how Frogster reacts though but yeah, those are some good call outs. Idk why scum!Frogster jumps in with that vote though unless he's scum with Bambi, but I don't reeeally like connecting those dots this early.

I may not have stuck to my guns on that scum read D1 and ended up paying for it since town lost, so I may have a bit of paranoia there about her play in general. But that Dunnstral vote gives me legit the same vibe I got from the last mini with Elsa/Bambi.

I've read back through the GL/Phoenix stuff a few times and yeah, I dunno. I at least think it's not a Phoenix/GL scum team. And I kinda feel that it's not a GL/Galron scum team either so that's neat. There's stuff in there that I dislike but it's probably more that I disagree with so I'm just going to roll with the idea that it's probably TvT.

These posts caught my attention by showing Alex fence-sitting and being noncommittal and cagey. Like wtf is he even stating in any of these posts. These posts are a superficial illusion of sharing thoughts.

[Frogsterking]

and I don't even know what 203 is supposed to mean.

This is an issue, do you feel like you have a clear grasp on the concept of deductive reasoning?

Oh, you mean "eliminate" as in by process of elimination, I thought you meant "eliminate" as "vote off".

Yeah I was referring to process of elimination

[Frogsterking]

Could you elaborate?

Here:

So I feel pretty good about Dunnstral as town. Will probably wait to see how Frogster reacts though but yeah, those are some good call outs. Idk why scum!Frogster jumps in with that vote though unless he's scum with Bambi, but I don't reeeally like connecting those dots this early.

I may not have stuck to my guns on that scum read D1 and ended up paying for it since town lost, so I may have a bit of paranoia there about her play in general. But that Dunnstral vote gives me legit the same vibe I got from the last mini with Elsa/Bambi.

I've read back through the GL/Phoenix stuff a few times and yeah, I dunno. I at least think it's not a Phoenix/GL scum team. And I kinda feel that it's not a GL/Galron scum team either so that's neat. There's stuff in there that I dislike but it's probably more that I disagree with so I'm just going to roll with the idea that it's probably TvT.

These posts caught my attention by showing Alex fence-sitting and being noncommittal and cagey. Like wtf is he even stating in any of these posts. These posts are a superficial illusion of sharing thoughts.

[kutiplz]

Hi I have no idea who has a w/w partnership with sara

[Frogsterking]

*whispers* It's Alex

[Pavowski]

Official Round 2.1 Votecount

Elimination

With 5 votes in play, it takes 3 to eliminate.

Alexcellent

(1): Frogsterking

Frogsterking

(1): Alexcellent

Not Voting

(3): Ph0enix, kutiplz, GuiltyLion

Deadline:

(expired on 2022-08-02 05:07:32)

Mod notes:

Click here for mod/VC iso.

[GuiltyLion]

bleghlfjlfk I'm rereading and almost nothing is standing out to me as

especially

strong town or scum in either direction, but here's where I'm at

Ph0enix, I think the main source of my TR there is I really don't think he played with an agenda D1. Doing an OMGUS on me (yes I know he gave reasons beyond 'OMGUS' but effectively it was an OMGUS) and then immediately backing down the next day after I double down is not something I see from scum very often. I think mafia are generally too concerned with appearances to pick a fight with someone scumreading them and then immediately retreat afterwards, if they think fighting is the best option then they commit to it for longer than that. 163 also just strikes me as a townie post and vote, especially how he asks kuti for whether there's more of a case/reason for their vote. I think scum who knows they're voting a miselimination is going to either slow play it and be 'lead' onto the wagon by someone like kuti/Alexcellent, or do a bit more playing up their own read & reasons so that their vote appears justified. Ph0enix kinda does neither approach, instead he adds to the wagon but while not expressing any real confidence in it, to me that feels uninformed and agendaless.

from just tone/vibes I like Alexcellent's ISO, I think he asks some useful questions that generally feel solvey (56, 81, 105), but it's not really anything that's wildly hard to fake as scum so I don't feel like it's strong enough reason to actually decisively townread him. It stands out that he asks Sara questions in two different posts 69 and 141 but I don't feel it's AI - I can see a straightforward explanation as either town (trying to sort a no-content player) or scum (trying to establish rapport with newbie teammate and help her get a foothold into the game), although if anything I'd say it's sliiiightly town indicative that she doesn't respond to his 69 as I feel if they had a scum PT he'd be encouraging her to respond there. Overall I guess I feel this is not who I want to eliminate today but I don't feel so good about it as to bet the game on him being town, as I think any scum worth their salt could produce this ISO. and I can definitely talk myself into scumreading him because there are certainly moments of waffle/fence-sitting as Frogster also pointed out, but within the overall context of the ISO and the game I think it's slightly uncharitable to imply that's all he's done, he was pretty forward with his Bambi vote/reasoning and his D2 evaluation of me as well as 208 don't feel like fence sitting either.

Frogster, I get where he's coming from on Alexcellent and if I knew that he was certainly town then I'd agree Alex is the right vote, but there's also just not really anything in his ISO that points me to town. Dunn's meta point about his early game is still good, Frogster didn't really ever address it in a satisfying way, and I also don't feel like Frog has ever tried to meaningfully engage with or sort me, I feel town in his shoes should have some doubts about my alignment in case his read on Alexcellent is wrong but he's not really doing anything to resolve or explore those. I also kinda feel like 226 should have come first rather than having to be pulled out of him (via 218 and 221). It's not a super damning point but generally I think town who wants to sell us on Alexcellent would be more proactive highlighting the posts he didn't like instead of waiting to explain after being questioned about it.

[GuiltyLion]

so after reread I'm willing to vote/eliminate Frogster but I wanna see where Ph0enix's head is at and if kuti wants to eliminate Frog then they should get to choose who hammers (in the event of supersaint)

[Frogsterking]

UNVOTE: alex 232 is bad enough to make me reconsider.

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: GuiltyLion

[Ph0enix]

Sorry, catching up is in progress.

[Ph0enix]

So, I think we're in a state of the game where not much more information can be gained without an elimination. Most of what I mentioned in 218 still stands. The points I made about Alex are the reason I don't think I'm willing to vote Alex today.

I'm torn between voting Frogster or GL today based on what was mentioned in the same post and I'm willing to go with what Kuti thinks is the best option, cause there's an argument to be made about both scum!GL and scum!Frogster, IMO.

UNVOTE: alex 232 is bad enough to make me reconsider.

What about is bugs you? I echo most of what was said in the last two paragraphs of that post.

[Alexcellent]

So, I think we're in a state of the game where not much more information can be gained without an elimination. Most of what I mentioned in 218 still stands. The points I made about Alex are the reason I don't think I'm willing to vote Alex today.

I'm torn between voting Frogster or GL today based on what was mentioned in the same post and I'm willing to go with what Kuti thinks is the best option, cause there's an argument to be made about both scum!GL and scum!Frogster, IMO.

UNVOTE: alex 232 is bad enough to make me reconsider.

What about is bugs you? I echo most of what was said in the last two paragraphs of that post.

This post concerns me a bit.
I get that there's not a ton of information that we can get from D1 given the sudden hammer, but I feel like rushing an elimination here is still bad. I think a mislim here is potentially be game throwing?

[Ph0enix]

So, I think we're in a state of the game where not much more information can be gained without an elimination. Most of what I mentioned in 218 still stands. The points I made about Alex are the reason I don't think I'm willing to vote Alex today.

I'm torn between voting Frogster or GL today based on what was mentioned in the same post and I'm willing to go with what Kuti thinks is the best option, cause there's an argument to be made about both scum!GL and scum!Frogster, IMO.

UNVOTE: alex 232 is bad enough to make me reconsider.

What about is bugs you? I echo most of what was said in the last two paragraphs of that post.

This post concerns me a bit.
I get that there's not a ton of information that we can get from D1 given the sudden hammer, but I feel like rushing an elimination here is still bad. I think a mislim here is potentially be game throwing?

Potentially, yes. Yeah, I get it, I pointed it out because we've been seemingly stuck for the last 24+ hours. Hopefully things will clear up a bit more when Kuti shows up and/or Frogster responds, I'm just skeptical that something is going to help me solve my dilemma as to who to vote between GL and Frogster. But let's see.

[Alexcellent]

Pretty sure GL is town.

Scum!GL can just keep pushing me as scum and with Frog voting me, he could have put me at E-1. The only thing stopping that is if Phoenix and Kuti both disagree and push somewhere else.
Like I do have a paranoid side saying that maybe scum!GL just thinks Frog is the easier wagon to push? But I don't think I'm a hard wagon to push either.
This, on top of it making little sense for GL to kill Galron is all +town.

But also:

so after reread I'm willing to vote/eliminate Frogster but I wanna see where Ph0enix's head is at and if kuti wants to eliminate Frog then they should get to choose who hammers (in the event of supersaint)

GL wanting Kuti to have the power over who hammers is very much a pro-town move IMO. Like I really do not see scum making this suggestion.

[Alexcellent]

It's sort of just become between Frog and Phoenix for me I think. There are things that concern me about Phoenix but comparing both D1s, I can't really say Phoenix is scummier than Frog. I think I'm probably just letting paranoia get to me.

[Ph0enix]

so after reread I'm willing to vote/eliminate Frogster but I wanna see where Ph0enix's head is at and if kuti wants to eliminate Frog then they should get to choose who hammers (in the event of supersaint)

GL wanting Kuti to have the power over who hammers is very much a pro-town move IMO. Like I really do not see scum making this suggestion.

That's a fair point, actually.

[Ph0enix]

From my POV, I don't see how a Galron kill makes less sense in a scum!GL scenario than a scum!Frog scenario.

[Alexcellent]

Every time I try to analyse the Galron kill I get confused and lost in the WIFOM.

I think scum!GL killing Galron feels like suboptimal scum play because it means he killed someone he's been town reading (maybe trying to pocket?) and who was also sheeping his vote. Maybe it's the way my brain works but it would kind of be like scum getting rid of someone they could use maybe. Unless he thought town wouldn't expect him to kill Galron so he's playing 4D chess with the kills? I think I'm overthinking that though. I think scum!GL probably doesn't want to kill Galron.

[Alexcellent]

Although actually then I guess scum!GL COULD have maybe felt hamstrung by claiming to have a meta TR on Galron early so it would limit his wagon options on D2, given he'd have to be going back on that read if he wanted to push him??

[Alexcellent]

Actually that probably doesn't carry much weight. GL has already shown a willingness to re-assess and change reads, which is probably another +town for him. If he's scum he probably wouldn't see it as a big issue having to pivot on his reads today. I think he's still just town?

Ughh I hate that kill and analysing it is making me doubt things

[Alexcellent]

Actually I'm just sticking with Frog.

I think I'm going through some pretty circular logic to come up with reasons to scum read GL and if I'm having to squint that hard it probably means he's just town. I really don't think scum is willing to suggest a scenario where conftownie has power over the hammer.

And I'm paranoid of Phoenix because there are just little things there that I could see working. And small things like 237 in a vacuum make me pause. But like, if I compare his input from D1 to most others in the game, he appears town.

It's hard to see town in Frogster for a lot of the reasons already said.

So I feel pretty good about Dunnstral as town. Will probably wait to see how Frogster reacts though but yeah, those are some good call outs. Idk why scum!Frogster jumps in with that vote though unless he's scum with Bambi, but I don't reeeally like connecting those dots this early.

I may not have stuck to my guns on that scum read D1 and ended up paying for it since town lost, so I may have a bit of paranoia there about her play in general. But that Dunnstral vote gives me legit the same vibe I got from the last mini with Elsa/Bambi.

I've read back through the GL/Phoenix stuff a few times and yeah, I dunno. I at least think it's not a Phoenix/GL scum team. And I kinda feel that it's not a GL/Galron scum team either so that's neat. There's stuff in there that I dislike but it's probably more that I disagree with so I'm just going to roll with the idea that it's probably TvT.

These posts caught my attention by showing Alex fence-sitting and being noncommittal and cagey. Like wtf is he even stating in any of these posts. These posts are a superficial illusion of sharing thoughts.

But like this post - he isn't entirely wrong. I am fencesitty and can generally be pretty wishwashy because that's just kind of how I am, and the posts quoted are pretty much my direct thoughts on the game as it's happening. But also just cherrypicking a couple of posts out of my ISO and spinning them as scummy is disingenuous.

His move to GL feels like it's prooobably survival motivated as well and suggests he didn't exactly have a lot of conviction in his scumread of me in the first place.
I'm just going to stick to my guns here.

[Pavowski]

Ph0enix has requested replacement.

[GuiltyLion]

UNVOTE: alex 232 is bad enough to make me reconsider.

This is not a useful response, what specifically do you dislike about my post