Mini 116: Trigger Mafia Concluded

[Otaku376]

well as been stated by our lovely mod, there are protown triggers, mafia triggers, and universal triggers. Your wording makes it sound as if you know your trigger is specifically protown, versus being a universal trigger.

[Yaw]

Here's what this comes down to. Nard is claiming vig with a unique kill condition. Now, he can confirm himself by killing tonight -- having a gun kill and/or multiple kills tonight would be consistent with his story. This assumes that he doesn't accept another trigger role, and remains a vig. It also assumes his kill doesn't get doc-blocked or roleblocked by someone else's trigger and night choice. (I consider the former the more likely problem here.)

The big problem is that a

lot

of our conversation to date has dealt with trying to figure out the functionality of triggers, which means we don't have a great handle on who scum are. We really

can't

resort to roleclaims and their believability to confirm scumminess -- both because we will all effectively claim townie, and those that don't claim townie have roles that are at best transitory in nature. This means that if nard is telling the truth and does decide to night kill, he is far more likely to kill town (80% chance, assuming a lynch today that isn't scum; 90% chance if we do lynch scum). I don't like the idea of killing town to make a point, and I fear that this is ultimately the only way to get any sort of confirmation, since the roleclaim itself, looked at objectively through its various incarnations, is leakier than a sieve. I suppose we could get nard investigated tonight, but that could conceivably be a waste of an investigation, and assumes that Jaguar stays a cop, isn't lying about her claim, and survives the night. Does anyone see any ways out of this that are plausible?

Also, where is shady, and why wasn't he even remotely on top of this game when making his last post? I'm leaning towards switching my vote over to him just to get some valid participation...

[nard054]

Well as been stated by our lovely mod, there are protown triggers, mafia triggers, and universal triggers. Your wording makes it sound as if you know your trigger is specifically protown, versus being a universal trigger.

I personally know my role is still pro-town because my PM asked me if I wanted to look for something

to use against mafia.

And the only way I can think of proving myself without killing tonight is to have Jaguar investigate me. But, even though I believe her claim, I'm still apprehensive of this. She pointed out that she didn't have complete sanity. But if that's what it takes to prove my innocence, then hopefully the investigation will go as planned.

[Candice]

Well, I'm home from meeting the most wonderful man in the universe. Unfortunately, I got held for THREE HOURS at the border and couldn't finish the drive last night, and got lost several times on the last stretch today... so I'm fried. I will post tomorrow morning- just wanted to let you guyses know that I'm here.

[Yaw]

Unvote: nard054

,

Vote: shadyforce

. Looks like someone needs some pressure to start contributing.

[shadyforce]

Arrrgh! Yaw, leave me alone will ya? Ok, I get the hint I'll try and post more.

The earlier mistake, which I posted here:

The nard bandwagon was to get him to post more, and he seems to be doing that. No point joining that.

can be easily explained. I often get Nard and Uraj mixed up in my mind. They are both 4 letter names, and are both preceded by numbers which I usually drop for simplicity. I noted that Uraj has been lurking, and I noted that Nard had been bandwagoned, and got the 2 mixed up. Simple as that.

As to the other point I made in that post:

My vote's on Jaguar and nothing I've heard has convinced me otherwise. You're still the most suspicious in my eyes, though admittedly not hugely suspicious.

Nard questioned this by posting this:

Some things here just don't add up. Nothing you've heard has convinced you otherwise? The exact same PM came to her and me. And if you don't believe this, then why suspect Jaguar when I claimed after her?

To that I respond by quoting MeMe, which she has said all along the game, and to which I agree fully:

My point is that both mafia AND town can have identical trigger mechanics. It has nothing to do with alignment.

I am still suspicious of Jaguar, and now that I've cleared up Nard's situation, I am quite suspicious of him as well. I just think I should mention that a very definite possibility is that there is a 'Serial Killer' trigger.

[Candice]

Now that I'm somewhat awake, I will respond.

Firstly, I'm going to put Bluesin's/Nard's "Candice is laying low!" thing to rest RIGHT now. Bluesin, if you want to find someone suspicious due to a lack of posts, you need to find yourself suspicious more than me. I started counting posts from Meme's post count on page 5. She listed my posts as 12 and yours as

6

. From there, if my count is correct, I had 9 more posts and you had 8 more, putting grand total post count at 21 for me and 14 for you- even WITH my vacation. Granted, math is NOT my strong suite, but I CANNOT see my count as being all that far off. Furthermore, my posts have generally just had more substance than yours.

Two things I've noticed from re-reading the thread:

1- Tam really HASN'T contributed much. She's got posts but I don't, personally, see very much substance.

2- Bluesin seems to be bouncing votes and FOSs around without any real explaination.

3- The more I think about it, the more I'm suspicious of the Jaguar/Nard trigger claim thing. I unvoted Nard because of the similarities to Jaguar's claim, but now that I think about it they're TOO similar. Furthermore, I don't believe Nard has really addressed his own accusation-bouncing- which, I had to notice, was often completely unaccompanied by either a vote or FOS.

Those are my current thoughts. I'll come back to this later with a notebook to take notes down a bit.

[MeMe]

vote: nard054

I'm growing weary of this day and, after a re-read of the entire game, I'm most suspicious of him -- his posts just have too many questionable elements to ignore and his last "hopefully the investigation will go as planned" looks as though he's trying to discredit it before the result is in.

[Tigris]

Vote Count

Shady (2): totem, Yaw
Jaguar (1): shady
Nard (3): otaku, tam, meme
Tam (1): bluesin

not voting: willows, jaguar, candice, nard

I've thought about placing a deadline a few times, but have been holding off on setting a deadline due to continued activity. However, it has been 2 and 1/2 weeks since the day started, so if people would like a deadline, I can place one. ^_^

[Yaw]

Well, the vote was worth it to get shady's attention.

That said, I reread again.

Unvote: shadyforce

,

Vote: nard054

. Fourth vote.

I just can't shake the fact that his first instinct upon claiming was to tell us all that he intended to kill tonight. I had considered the potential SK-trigger shady mentioned, which is another possibility. That aside, vigilantes should not be killing anyone unless they are reasonably sure that person is scum -- and with nard's 180s, I have little confidence that were he town he'd have a great idea of who is scum. I don't believe town would deliberately undertake a course of action most likely to night kill town.

[shadyforce]

Well, I think what he might have meant is that he can ONLY kill mafia and not town, according to his new role, but maybe I'm mistaken. If, however, it is true, I'll be urging for him to not be lynched. Easy to test it and lynch tomorrow if he's lying.

As it is, his claim is fishy, and I'll quite possibly add my vote but once he gets another say. I don't like depriving people of that.

[BlueSin]

Well, i agree with shadyforce. No need to rush for a lynch since his claim can be proved easily. I know it's risky but it's worth it if we can get one confirmed town or kill one mafia.

Candice,
by laying low I meant trying to follow the stream. not meaning lurking or post less frequently. e.g. just agree on whatsoever discussion and joining the bandwagons. And, not standing up and do something like bouncing votes and fos around with analysis. Standard mafia attitute.

The vote on tam is just a substitute for not voting since tam don't face critical bandwagon at the moment. at least it's better than not voting, cause it can show me how certain people responce to a vote.

[Candice]

Re: the bandwagon thing. Fair enough. Name the bandwagons I've actually joined- to my count it was only one.

I'm waiting for Nard to respond before I vote him but I'm just about convinced that he is scum now.

FoS: Nard

. A good defense will stop that vote but without one I'll vote.

[nard054]

Furthermore, I don't believe Nard has really addressed his own accusation-bouncing- which, I had to notice, was often completely unaccompanied by either a vote or FOS.

I had five votes on me with six to lynch. I had to direct some kind of attention elsewhere. And I don't think its scummy at all to want to stay alive.

I'm growing weary of this day and, after a re-read of the entire game, I'm most suspicious of him -- his posts just have too many questionable elements to ignore and his last "hopefully the investigation will go as planned" looks as though he's trying to discredit it before the result is in.

Well, yeah. I am trying to discredit it. Willow's investigation came back as leprechaun. And I don't think she really was a leprechaun. So if I didn't mention that Jaguar wasn't completely sane, if the investigation came back as anything other than my role, well I'd be screwed.

I just can't shake the fact that his first instinct upon claiming was to tell us all that he intended to kill tonight.

I said I'd be

willing

to kill tonight if it would prove my innocence. And that was when I was sure that Jaguar was scum. I'm now convinced she isn't.

Well, I think what he might have meant is that he can ONLY kill mafia and not town, according to his new role, but maybe I'm mistaken.

I wish it was like this because it would make things a lot easier. It very well could be, but I honestly have no idea what the outcome of me shooting someone will be.

[Candice]

Sorry, Nard... I don't buy it.

Vote: Nard

[Jaguar]

I am entirely convinced that the result on Willows I's investigation was nothing more than a random thing as she died that night. I've said that several times. Nard, you are putting way too much emphasis on this whole Leprechaun thing.

Shady and MeMe, I completely agree with your point that the triggers could be similar for the mafia and somehow I have to try to convince you that I am not scum. That said, I am not scum .

The SK thing never really popped into my head, but it is certainly a possibility and would throw more suspicion on Nard at the moment, but since he has posted some words that I didn't with respect to the trigger PM, I still have to believe him at this point. Although a vig could be just as harmful to the town as an SK.

Candice,
by laying low I meant trying to follow the stream. not meaning lurking or post less frequently. e.g. just agree on whatsoever discussion and joining the bandwagons. And, not standing up and do something like bouncing votes and fos around with analysis. Standard mafia attitute.

This statement just screams scum to me. At first BlueSin was actively trying to hit trigger words and then he just stops? Now he is laying low?

vote: BlueSin

[BlueSin]

I'm lazy to type many random words followed by a post, cause it seems stupid and i still failed to get any trigger for now. i 'actively' trying to hit triggers earlier because many people did so, and oting much to talk about, plus the effect of getting a trigger is not revealed yet.

What "he is laying low"? I refer it to candice question, he thought I meant lurking by laing low.

fos on whoever joining the nard bandwagon, I and shadyforce mentioned before, no need to rush lynching a potential helpful protown, unless you are scum of course. nard role can be proved easily if not interfere by role blocker or doc.

*keeping my eyes open o several scummy people.* the truth is right in my mind

[MeMe]

nard role can be proved easily if not interfere by role blocker or doc.

Please outline the plan that will definitively prove nard's pro-townieness.

[Candice]

I'd like to know that as well, Bluesin. Also, would you mind answering my question? What bandwagons HAVE I been on? Have I forgotten any?

[shadyforce]

The plan to verify Nard is now obsolete, given his recent admission. there is no plan anymore, and that's why we should decide once and for all, lynch him or lynch someone else.

[BlueSin]

let nard kill someone tonight and that's all.

Oh, and by the way, if there isn't scum dead tomorrow, feel free to lynch me.

Read back to find out the post that I started the fos on Candice,
The reasons on Candice being scummy stated first by nard,

The person who I am worried about is Candice. She has been laying low, been agreeing with everyone, defending a lot of people, and being right in the middle of bandwagons and once it starts slowing down, she gets off of it. This could just mean she wants to stay alive, but it is a very good strategy for scum. No one has even mentioned her yet.

I've read that parts and add a fos to candice after that. I apologize for not thinking thoroughly before placing a fos, if that "jumping bandwagons" is not true. It appear as nard's action to attract attention to other players.

Candice, mind to reveal how many bandwagons you have joined?
By the way, Tam has not posted since jun30. I think she need a mod prod.

[MeMe]

let nard kill someone tonight and that's all.

Problems with the plan, even if he's able to accomplish it: 1) he might kill a good person; 2) he may be scum; 3) or both.

Would prove nothing except the existence of a gun...but certainly you

see

that?

[BlueSin]

yea, I see that possibility, but he claimed earlier that he can only kill mafia with the gun he found.

[willows_weep]

Hm, I don't get what the "but" is for in the sentence BlueSin.
Unless its to show that...
If he uses the gun, and some one actually dies then we wouldn't lose a protown person but in the morning it would be an antitown person.
And if there was no kill then Nard could tell us who the target was and then we would have a confirmed innocent for a while (unless we get one of those really slim chances).
But then again that's all supposing Nard is protown. Because if Nard were anti-town in anyway then Nard could simply give the name of a player most likely to be protown (if Mafia that's easy, if an SK triggered it would be a little less easy).

Is that the case? Or something totally different
Because then Nard could get killed too.
Then we would end up with nothing but perhaps knowing some truth about Nard.

[nard054]

Ok. Now I see where the I-can-only-kill-mafia theory came in.

THIS IS NOT TRUE

. I was saying that out of desperation and trying to convince the town I knew who scum was. I was planning on killing Jaguar (had she or I not been lynched). But that's all changed, so I really wouldn't feel comfortable killing anyone without a discussion from the town.

vote: candice

. A gut feeling. Nothing more.