Mini 1566: Lunar Silver Star Story Complete (Game Over)

[borkjerfkin]

Yykhj

[mastin2]

OK, briefly, beast and SG are/were both looking to solve the game in a way that I don't see coming from a last scum standing. Way too much effort for a solo scum who has no suspicion on them. Solo scum here who's a neighbor with Mac should find it easy to take a stance, vote one way or the other, with the other choice as a back-up and toss mastin in there as a paranoia option. Not question my towniness when they don't need my mislynch to win. Hope that helps.

Actually, yeah, it does.

@Mastin:
Why is Mac scum? Like what about him exactly is scummy? Link me posts or something.

If I knew that, this would be a much, much easier read to call.

Explicitly don't know, aside from gut.

Like, I guess...this kind of play is just the sort of thing I suppose I'd expect from a scuMac? Mac when town normally is obvtown yet doesn't feel that way to me this game. His posting hasn't seemed like the strong him I remember. General, vague things like that which explicitly do

not

have anything concrete tied to them, being basically just feeling.

Like, his post near the top of last page rubbed me the wrong way, setting off alarm bells that he may be scum setting up an Aegor-then-mastin chain lynch for victory, but even that wasn't strong, merely serving as the catalyst for the sudden wave of doubt. (Plus your vote.) Oh, and while I can see Aegor's posting here as being from scum, his recent posting is really right on the money hitting all the right notes to make me think, "this is what town being mislynched would think".

[mastin2]

1. You don't see the neighborhood.

Oh.

This, too.

Like, you can get town players townning it up in neighborhoods. (JSU/F-16/pie.)
...But while possible, that causes an immense frustration/paranoia of the town outside the picture, mainly because...
...It is much, much, MUCH easier to get scum players manipulating and becoming obvtown in said neighborhoods. (Nacho/PA.)

I've already said your flip flop reminded me of what did you to me in Anything Goes (ie - you read me as strong town and then moulded me into a lynchable player, eventually lynched) and now I'm still seeing it especially now. Aegor is still top of my list, and you can quit the charade where you seem to think you have been the only one pushing Aegor when he's been my top scumread since d2/3, can't remember which. But yeah, you're a possibility if Aegor is somehow town.

I suppose this in particular is also setting off alarm bells.

I'm displaying a trend, quite strongly, that you perceived in Anything Goes. Not only is the trend similar, but virtually identical, in that you have a confirmed role yet I'm thinking you're scum in spite of that. The timing's even the same: not pushing you yesterday (two days before lylo/mylo), but pushing you the day before lylo/mylo with a self-admitted backup-plan of sorts. (It should be fairly obvious that a scuMastin is going to set up an Aegor/PA lylo. Because if PA continues to townread me, it'd lead to victory, and if not, if she voted me, then a scuMastin would gamble on paranoia that she's not conftown and plead to Aegor about it, pointing out the town trends and emphasizing all the town things I've done.
Oh. And did I mention the waffling, under the guise of paranoia? That, too.)

And yet, in spite of that...I'm just a possibility? Even your language usage is implying that you think I'm faking stuff. ("quit the charade" is not a phrase you mutter to a town player often, yaknow.) Aegor's at the top of the list, in spite of the fact that by all reasonable accounts, you should be having me as much more than just a possibility. Why so little focus on me? Why just default to Aegor? Like, you said why you haven't bothered sorting me...but why not, when I've shown what to you should be a red flag warning sign?

I don't understand it coming from a town-you. I can't see how, not even in apathy, you'd just casually think, "eh, Mastin may be scum"...
...ESPECIALLY knowing my skill as a scum player. If the possibility existed for me being scum, why instantly just place Aegor above me when simply put, Aegor's not nearly as competent a scum player as I am? When leaving a scuMastin alive a day could spell the town's death? What makes Aegor that strong a read, and me such an insignificant one?

I don't get it.

[mastin2]

(Oh. I think I just stumbled upon one of my tells.
I'm making a "reading Mastin" flowchart, and one of the things I think I can put on there is a trend that I have.

"Is Mastin making a case for why she could be scum?
Yes-->She's town.
Kinda?-->Prob-town, but proceed anyway as a precaution.
No-->Proceed.

Is Mastin making very strong reasons why she's town?
No-->She's town.
Kinda-->Prob-town, but proceed anyway as a precaution.
Yes-->Proceed."

Note that 'tells' is more like, "guideline" than actual rule, though. Still, I think it holds.
Not really relevant, though, since you have no reason to trust its accuracy 'til I'm dead. At which point it's kinda useless. )

[mastin2]

(Oh, and I think rambling in-thread's already there*, but if not, it should be.)

*Relies on scum having daychat. Scum have daychat, in-thread rambling = decent towntell. Scum don't have daychat, rambling = prob-null, maybe slight townlean. Scum daychat ambiguous, assume slight townlean.

[mastin2]

(Oh, should be noted. Last scum, rambling in-thread gets upgraded to major towntell, since scuMastin typically keeps rambles to the scum QT about why she's screwed*. )

*Or about differences in her towngame/scumgame, and running commentary, and ranting at the mods for an "unbalanced" setup......

[BROseidon]

Gonna get to a full reread tonight. Will post thoughts then.

[beastcharizard]

The only way Mac is being lynched is for my theory. There is no other reason to lynch him.

If there is another doctor in the game they should claim. If not at this point I choose to believe Mac.

He said you were scum, I think he is town therefore that convinces me. There is no specific post that made me go: "Oh Mac is right."

[beastcharizard]

We still have a chance at winning even if we do mislynch today.

We are a lot closer to winning than anyone thinks. Besides scum they are further away from winning.

[Aegor]

He said you were scum, I think he is town therefore that convinces me. There is no specific post that made me go: "Oh Mac is right."

=shite reason, even if Mac were a mod-confirmed IC.

[BROseidon]

Okay, fell asleep before doing my read-through. Doing it now while I watch USA vs. Germany.

First thought is that Aegor is town based on 116. Aegor-scum would imply Jake-slot town, and with Jake-slot applying early pressure to a scum buddy that just got discredited by the most reputable slot in the game, it wouldn't make sense to increase that pressure. The bus could wait a day or two.

[BROseidon]

Wish Sangres was alive so I could ask them about 129

[BROseidon]

So I got bored reading the whole game, and decided to do some partite stuff.

Why would AD get killed N1? He had 26 posts, and scum either figured out he was a PR, or his death strongly implies that mastin is the last scum.

[BROseidon]

but, no. I need time to process this claim which seems to be entirely plausible, and time to figure out wtf dan had gotten killed last night

This makes me want to read less into that NK, though :/

[BROseidon]

well obviously someone in mafia figured out he was the DV, not that hard cause that is who I thought the DV was and if I can figure it out, people way smarter than me certainly did.

Grossssssssssssss

[BROseidon]

hm was brushing teeth and started thinking

if he was roleblocked, why did he claim a result? even if he is scum, smart option is just to be honest and claim roleblocked

so if he is scum, either he is what he claimed he is and got lucky guessing my role and is lying stupidly about it when he knows somebody blocked him orrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr he's scum who doesn't have an action that he'd know was blocked in which case that's a really weird fake claim

or something i'm not thinking of right now

anyway. sleep time

grossssssssss

[BROseidon]

Actually not that gross. I'm dumb

[BROseidon]

Actually, I need to think about that post more as to what it means. It's a valid point that leads to bizarre bizarreness.

[BROseidon]

Jakeslot is probably town, I think.

[BROseidon]

I wish mastin and penguin replaced into the opposite slots. Is it too late to have this happen?

[borkjerfkin]

Votecount 5.3

[2] Aegor (Mac, beastcharizard)
[1] Mac (Aegor)

[3] Not Voting (BROseidon, penguin_alien, mastin2)

With 6 alive, it is 4 to lynch.

Let me know if you see any problems.

Deadline is in (expired on 2014-06-29 01:00:00)

[BROseidon]

From a game-flow perspective, it'd be a bizarre choice for Jake/HKC as scum together to say, "Hey, we just lost one person, let's cross-bus really hard instead of going mislynch->x-bus"

[BROseidon]

vote: mac

when smp was getting run up the first time, he had like 5 votes and mac was defensive of smp and trying to smear my name. He also was lightly defensive of SMP during the anti/smp claim thing but said smp is the only viable lynch. Given smp fliped a scum pr, this defense stands out to me.

The people most likely partners with SMP are in the group of mac/hkc/zmuffinman with mac/zmuffin the most likely pair.

Looking at the interactions between the 3, smp/mac/zmuffin REALLY make sense. Somebody check my work

wait wtf

[BROseidon]

Looking at the interactions between the 3, smp/mac/zmuffin REALLY make sense. Somebody check my work

Not sure if I buy into Mac.

Want to run up Muffin instead? I buy into Muffin.

lollllll

[BROseidon]

Guys, should I read the Jake/Muffin pissing contest?