Mafiascum.net

In post 2274, Nero Cain wrote:

In post 2270, gigabyteTroubadour wrote:fhsjsnshfjd

kraska is town nero what the fuck

Why couldn't she read one buddy as scum (Titus/Blitz) and the other as town (shadow)?

She COULD have but like

she isn't playing to her scum meta at all... i'll go into this later tonight but she is SO obvious town here imo

ok

@Nero https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

In post 2267, gigabyteTroubadour wrote:
why is titus bussing me though?? in your scumteam, I'd HAVE to be the doctor,

What? No. There might not be a doc. Might be 1shot bp or something, which could lead to blitz thinking a vig exists. Same logical result.

And busing isn't a sure thing. You bus a partner, but the wagon doesn't lead to a lynch, you created a ton of useful doubt and you still have your sooper valuable doc partner. It's a gambit that works when it fails too.

In post 2278, karnos wrote:

In post 2267, gigabyteTroubadour wrote:
why is titus bussing me though?? in your scumteam, I'd HAVE to be the doctor,

What? No. There might not be a doc. Might be 1shot bp or something, which could lead to blitz thinking a vig exists. Same logical result.

And busing isn't a sure thing. You bus a partner, but the wagon doesn't lead to a lynch, you created a ton of useful doubt and you still have your sooper valuable doc partner. It's a gambit that works when it fails too.

we think it's a doc because of the gunsmith... bp still has a gun

kraska & shadow is possible, sure. Kraska seems pretty towny but scum!kraska would certainly explain the insane surity of her MariaR town read when everyone else wanted to lynch her.

In post 2279, gigabyteTroubadour wrote: we think it's a doc because of the gunsmith... bp still has a gun

Does every game with a cop in it have a godfather?

The false positive town roles cause enough doubt already. And if you are a scum ascetic, there is that too. If scum has an ascetic, and doc, then gunsmith is almost negative utility.

I'm going to go lurk and think about things. I'll be watching the thread but I don't really want to post. I see no real reason we shouldn't vote Shadow today though.

Thor, if Shadow is town, who is scum?

With Nero claiming to have shot shadow night 1, I see four possibilities:

• Nero is lying (either about being vig or about shooting shadow)
  
• some other townie prevented the kill and is lying about it
  
• scum blocked nero from killing
  
• scum protected shadow

Given the discussion we had about the fake mason claims, and the fact that this massclaim was done at least partially with the purpose of finding out if and who the vig targeted night 1, I think we can safely dismiss the first two. If town is lying and we mislynch because of it, we deserve the loss.

So either scum blocked nero, or shadow was protected. Out of those two, a protect on shadow is far more likely. A mafia doc goes perfectly into a setup with a tracker (who tracks the protections), gunsmith (doc does not have a gun and therefore functions as a godfather) and vig (mafia doc stops the vig kills). Compared to that, some form of roleblocker would be a very blunt instrument.

And if shadow indeed was protected, he's (almost) certainly mafia.

I've read the first 20 pages during my reread, continuing reading now.

I've made it up to page 30 now, but bedtime is approaching rapidly. Tomorrow starts early again. For now, a summary of my observations. I'll go more in depth when I've reached the end of day 1 and have taken some time to think about what I read.

Maria, trans and nero were dominating the discussion, which makes it difficult to get a good grip on the thoughts of other players. In particular, there weren't really any interesting interactions with blitzkrieg, except that blitz was pushing against the masons.

I'm not all that interested in Nero or trans. Nero is an uncountered vig and therefore almost certainly town, and giga being heavily attacked by blitz as the alternative to the blitz lynch makes her likely town as well.

By page 30, shadow had done absolutely nothing. He hadn't commented on maria's early post, he hadn't commented on the mason claim or its implications, the only thing he had discussed was Gerry's fake dayvig. I see no reason whatsoever in his posts up to that point to consider him town.

Karnos also didn't offer much, but he was happy wagoning along on both the maria and the trans wagons. Add in the "trans is town, but let's lynch him anyway" of #678 and I could easily see him as the third scum.

Up to page 30, Thor has been consistently asking good questions of Maria, while keeping an eye on everyone else as well. It's rare that I can't see where his line of questioning is coming from. He's probably experienced enough to fake this as scum, but overall my impression of him is good.

Kraska mainly stood out for defending maria when it was unpopular. From the first 30 pages it isn't clear where those feelings come from, though.

Elyse's first Maria vote might have been overexplaining a bit, but her vote on transcend in #628 looked genuine.

Overall, based on just the first 30 pages, shadow and karnos are the obvious lynches.

I'll hope to reach the end of day 1 tomorrow at work.

Sometimes I tend to overthink things, both JarJar and IaI had scumreads on both Shadow and Karnos so they make the most make the most sense as kills, I guess.

VOTE: Shadow

Why aren't more people voting him?

Why are you in such a rush to lynch him and why not comment on anything else?

What else is there to say?

Shadow nearly has a guilty on him. karnos or Thor is probably last scum.

Nearly guilty?
You crazy or what?
It was mechanically impossible for me to do the kill last night ffs.

Well, there was talk about setup for the last like pages, I figured you'd talk about that.

In post 2287, Nero Cain wrote:Sometimes I tend to overthink things, both JarJar and IaI had scumreads on both Shadow and Karnos so they make the most make the most sense as kills, I guess.

And I decide to keep you alive over IAI? Hells naw

IaI was universally town read where I wasn't plus Titus thinks she's able to fool me.

In post 2285, MichelSableheart wrote:

Vote: Shadow_step

With Nero claiming to have shot shadow night 1, I see four possibilities:

• Nero is lying (either about being vig or about shooting shadow)
  
• some other townie prevented the kill and is lying about it
  
• scum blocked nero from killing
  
• scum protected shadow

Given the discussion we had about the fake mason claims, and the fact that this massclaim was done at least partially with the purpose of finding out if and who the vig targeted night 1, I think we can safely dismiss the first two. If town is lying and we mislynch because of it, we deserve the loss.

So either scum blocked nero, or shadow was protected. Out of those two, a protect on shadow is far more likely. A mafia doc goes perfectly into a setup with a tracker (who tracks the protections), gunsmith (doc does not have a gun and therefore functions as a godfather) and vig (mafia doc stops the vig kills). Compared to that, some form of roleblocker would be a very blunt instrument.

And if shadow indeed was protected, he's (almost) certainly mafia.

I've read the first 20 pages during my reread, continuing reading now.

"almost certainly" wtf is this shit.
Why aren't you keeping an opening mind? Why the fuck can't there be a RB or a JK who blocked NC.
Stupid Nero has made it so easy for scum to jump on my wagon, it's ridiculous.

In post 2294, Nero Cain wrote:IaI was universally town read where I wasn't plus Titus thinks she's able to fool me.

Why was IAI "universally" townread and you weren't, in your opinion ?
IAI was pushing for my Lynch and nobody was listening to him. You have more influence over the town. It makes no sense to keep you alive over him.

In post 2291, Shadow_step wrote:Nearly guilty?
You crazy or what?
It was mechanically impossible for me to do the kill last night ffs.

So?

Your buddy could have done it.

@Nero
tbh I skimmed a lot once I saw you claimed vig who shot shadow N1. I'll have more time to read tomorrow.

If I was scum, we would know that there is either an SK/vig in the game. My "buddy" would be protecting me.