Merchant's Daughter [Endgame]

[Krazy]

no no no no no why

because, the longer dance 1 goes, if the potential lynches are clear but not resolved, then scum has more motivation for a potential scenario of 1-2 bottom gents of juking the lynches, if there are two

we've been over this; it is not necessarily a common case that there will be two low-ranked scum gents, but if town is playing well there very well could be

dance 1 should be resolved while the whole town is at full attention and played somewhat like a blitz

scum wincon is getting their third in the best position possible usually

[Nancy Drew 39]

RC I am very worried about u pairing with someone who isn't at all willing to leave u at all. Because I am worried about you pocketing the person in case I am wrong about you. And don't you want to pair with someone you think has a mid chance of being scum so that it lowers your NK chances not increases the chances?

This feels very scary to me.

What makes you think that? If I think RC’s scum, I’m 100% kicking him to the curb.

[Something_Smart]

Who knows him better again?

I don't know your experience with a lot of players in this game. I know Fire knows you, I'd bet that Ank, Gamma, and Vedith also do. Depending on who Pink Ball is an alt of he may also qualify.

[Krazy]

Gents Unstructured top 5: Krazy, RC, Dannflor, Dr Worm, PvtUrist
Gents somewhat structured bottom 4:
Allomancer
Vedith
Moment
DoubtingThomas

Ladies unstructured top 5: Ankamius, Firebringer, Nancy Drew 39, Gamma Emerald, Taly
Ladies somewhat structured bottom 3:
Pink Ball
TheBrie
Something_Smart

[Nancy Drew 39]

Oh we probably don't but there's other pairings I can (possibly) set up that I think are locktown

Fire you know I was town in the last game and my approach was to take a locktown player. I am doing the same thing here. The fact that I think ND will basically never walk out on me is a plus from the POV of me being town, no?

Not to assume anything fypov ND but I think that like Taly could prolly be easily swayed by scum to dump me in late game

I always trust MY reads over anyone else’s because I know they’re above average. I just lost a game, because I couldn’t convince town to lynch my #1 scumread and then the other townie helped mislynch my #1 townread at LYLO. So, you’re right, I stick to my guns, always.

[Something_Smart]

dance 1 should be resolved while the whole town is at full attention and played somewhat like a blitz

I was going to say this had better not coincide with marathon weekend, but that would actually be amazing. Sitting down and just playing mafia the whole day...

That would kinda suck if I have homework, though

[Krazy]

I don't want to pair with someone with decent wolf equity

If you think you're going to get paranoia lynched then wouldn't Ank/RC make a decent tier 3 or tier 4 pairing? I'm not really hard pushing this, just trying to get your thought process. I still kinda feel like you think you're playing Witches Ball when that might not actually be the best way to approach the setup this time

[Krazy]

PvtUrist

guess if anyone has meta here -- does anyone know if Pvt prefers playing scum?

[Nancy Drew 39]

I agree 100% with RC and trust Nancy to leave the dance as soon as she feels RC is going on a rampage.

PvtUrist should start talking with Gamma.

DanceFloor should kiss me already.

I don't trust Nancy to leave someone unless she actually wants to. She is the most stubborn player here.

I would only WANT to, if I feel convinced that my partner has greater scum equity than anyone else remaining. Why would I want to do that otherwise?

[RadiantCowbells]

I don't think I get paranoia lynched

I do think I potentially have my partner walk out on me

I think that I'm objectively a Towny player as town and wasting the +equity that gives because I have a good scum game that people may end up scared of is the worse play if I play this setup 50 times In a row in terms of average winrate

[Nancy Drew 39]

I don't trust Nancy to leave someone unless she actually wants to. She is the most stubborn player here.

I know that I'm town though.

Why wouldn't I want someone who isn't going to walk out?

Ssh, don’t help scum RC.

[Krazy]

I don't think I get paranoia lynched

I do think I potentially have my partner walk out on me

I think that I'm objectively a Towny player as town and wasting the +equity that gives because I have a good scum game that people may end up scared of is the worse play if I play this setup 50 times In a row in terms of average winrate

ok then talk to me about Ank

she's not in your bottom 4 afaik but how much wolf equity do you see in her and why?

[Nancy Drew 39]

Krazy what are your reads rn and why? I want all of them and substantial explanation.

I don't think my list from a while back has dramatically shifted. Alisae scumlean, thebrie null but lowest no so default to null-scum, still thinking about pb

Worm went up a bit, still working on bottom gent order, dt kinda sitting at the bottom with moment but I kinda doubt they're both scum and aren't even feeling great I have 1 in the 2, just a poe basically

How are you on reads rn? Who is your bottom ladies/gents?

Why are PB and DT so low?

[RadiantCowbells]

You're not helping their case that I'm gonna pocket you lol

[Nancy Drew 39]

I don't trust Nancy to leave someone unless she actually wants to. She is the most stubborn player here.

I know that I'm town though.

Why wouldn't I want someone who isn't going to walk out?

You can want it. I am just saying this is a concern for me because first of all I think ur more useful paired to someone that you could kill if you figured out they were scum.

Also as Krazy suggests if both of u and nancy are town. U are 100% dying.

C’mon now, not everyone is obvtown reading me, unlike Taly.

[Krazy]

You're not helping their case that I'm gonna pocket you lol

this is directed to Nancy?

[RadiantCowbells]

Yes

[Krazy]

Why are PB and DT so low?

cause other people are higher, in the case of PB. As I mentioned, I'm leaning 2 gents/1 lady given my range of townreads in the ladies

DT might be a playstyle thing, it's just hard for me to see solving in the terse little responses

[Nancy Drew 39]

I don't trust Nancy to leave someone unless she actually wants to. She is the most stubborn player here.

I just think nancy is more useful sorting someone in a pt who is less town than herself

But there is merit in pairing her with someone that will give her high wim

I’m glad you understand how important it is, that I feel confident about that. There are certain players I’m just not going to mesh well with and I’d rather leave pre-dance then be paired up with them.

[Nancy Drew 39]

it helps the game state in a lot of ways if they die imo. that might be a little mean.

Bad puppy! Bad puppy! *wacks FB on the nose with a newspaper*

[Nancy Drew 39]

I would support ank/rc tbh

Not sure either is that into it tho and I dont want to fuck with wim

I think hell will freeze over first.

[Vedith]

C’mon now, not everyone is obvtown reading me, unlike Taly.

[Nancy Drew 39]

I wasn’t talking about actual gender but are you saying that you really think the scumteam could be either all ladies or all gents?

Beacause I don’t think that’s ever happened before in this kind of setup.

I believe the scumteam is random, so the odds of this happening are somewhere in the ballpark of 1/8. Just because it's never happened doesn't mean it's impossible.

Mybe? but I still think unlikely.

[Nancy Drew 39]

none of the previous dance games had all scum of one gender.
FG does a RNG for alignments among player list.

Yeah, that’s what I thought.

[RadiantCowbells]

The difference in wolf equity for genders following flips is trivial


Don't make assumptions