Mafiascum.net

@votato if hellbooks flips town where do you think we look next?

@R2R: although you raise a good question about Puppy’s read and death, I will say this...
I think day 1, NPOM was lynched over you cause the ratio was 2:1 scum on NPOM inflating his numbers and leading to his lynch. Of the players alive:

VP was on your wagon. Other than that, it was 3:1. I can’t see 2 scum on you and 6 townies + 1 Dunn hammer mislynching NPOM.

Votato, myself, you, and hellbooks (at that time Atarashi) on NPOM. My guess is scum is there. You were super close to a day 1 lynch. Using Blair’s theory, Gamma jumped off knowing NPOM would flip town. Day 2, Gamma again pushed for your lynch. So I’m least concerned with you. That again leaves votato & hellbooks. I skimmed through Dunn’s ISO and he does push votato’s lynch several times and mentions how he’s scum. I do read these interactions as Dunn pushing a votato mislynch. That just leaves hellbooks.

Although I do not have an answer for your question about hellbooks killing puppy, I will say, Dunn never really pushed hellbooks. I think achieving a mislynch there might’ve been pretty easy. Dunn mentions hellbooks very little.

ok, going back through some stuff again now that I have a moment to do some reading.

mavs wrote:@VP: I think Dunn’s push on votato cleared him.

I read this again. I don't think I'd use the word cleared. I think there is a non-zero chance of a scum slap fight here and that votato was never in danger of an actual lynch. That being said, it'd be a bold move to come out after the gamma lynch and start pushing on your buddy, however slight of a push it was. I mean, what's really weird to me beyond that is that both votato and Dunn end up on a puppy wagon after that...which feels strange if you're scum buddies. Dunn seems to make that flip after he's facing pressure from puppy too.

votato wrote:have we had similar positions? i feel like the reason I've kept my FoS on you all game long is that you always seem to have the opposite take from me, or when we do the same things its for opposing reasons. the obvious solve here is hellbooks. and i think itll take a major revelation for the lynch to land anywhere else today. but at the same time, hellbooks is a bit too easy. i need to go re-read and think about some stuff.

I think we have often arrived at similar thought patterns, even if the journey is slightly different to get there. I think we both were thrown by Blair's left field suspicion on Gamma that later turned out to be an investigation. I think we both saw Dunn as obvious scum after his ill explained hammer on midway. Hell, we simulvoted Gamma. It's weird because you gave me serious scum vibes day 1 and then it was like mirrored footsteps. I've been trusting that as town all game since I know I'm town, but late game always has pangs of second thoughts.

In post 2271, ready2rock wrote:And I also came across VP defending Dunn as puppy starts to try and build a case on him near the end of D3

I mean, guilty? I don't think I was the only one not buying the dunn case until the midway hammer. The fact he came out at the start of Day 2 and began bussing his partner made me think he was more likely town. From my perspective, it didn't really make sense as a scum play since there wasn't really that much pressure on Gamma at that point. After Dunn's midway hammer though, it looked more like he just got caught up on the wagon because of the investigation.

In post 2272, ready2rock wrote:Also what are people's thoughts on mavs? Is there good reason reason (apart from NK WIFOM stuff) to think that it's possible for mavs to be scum?

It's still a possibility. His voting record...isn't amazing. I still think the claim would be hard to fake, though admittedly none of it ended up being provable. Generally, I also feel like he's been asking protown questions and seems to be working through the game trying to arrive at answers.

In post 2274, ready2rock wrote:Someone needs to explain to me why scum!hellbooks would NK the ONLY person in the game that wasn't scumreading her

I find this a slightly compelling point. I mean, we don't know where Puppy would lean post Dunn flip (and I certainly would have considered them confirmed town), but an r2r kill seems like it would have made more sense? Although, generally speaking, I think an r2r kill would have made sense last night and every night since the gamma flip.

In post 2277, mavsfan41 wrote:Votato, myself, you, and hellbooks (at that time Atarashi) on NPOM. My guess is scum is there. You were super close to a day 1 lynch. Using Blair’s theory, Gamma jumped off knowing NPOM would flip town. Day 2, Gamma again pushed for your lynch. So I’m least concerned with you. That again leaves votato & hellbooks. I skimmed through Dunn’s ISO and he does push votato’s lynch several times and mentions how he’s scum. I do read these interactions as Dunn pushing a votato mislynch. That just leaves hellbooks.

Although I do not have an answer for your question about hellbooks killing puppy, I will say, Dunn never really pushed hellbooks. I think achieving a mislynch there might’ve been pretty easy. Dunn mentions hellbooks very little.

Actually not a bad case for mavs scum

so r2r, i think we are all on board with a mass claim. you set the order. i propose:

hellbooks, VP, me, r2r. I don't mind going before VP, but obviously FMPOV this is preferred.

In the last page i have come to believe there is a much greater chance of scum!mav. but at the same time, VP could have easily avoided early wagons knowing theyd flip town. at the end of the day, my vote today is going on hellbooks.

In post 2248, VP Baltar wrote:I'm most interested in hearing from hellbrooks and votato first. I also think we may be at the point where a mass claim is beneficial. I have thoughts about the order, but if we do it I think r2r should decide since he is probably the closest to confirmed town I see.

I'm fine with mass claim.

In post 2249, mavsfan41 wrote:I think R2R is cleared (curious why he’s still alive tbh).

We went through this yesterday but -- the same for you. If I had to guess, it's a reads-based kill. I don't see any other reason to leave both you and r2r alive (as in, you can't be scum)

In post 2249, mavsfan41 wrote:And R2R came into day 4 pushing Dunn.

Except so was everyone, and then R2R switched to me. That's a point against him in my book.

In post 2250, votato wrote:i dont remotely like that mav r2r and Vp are still alive over puppy. unless we are totally off-base here that kill makes no sense.

well who is puppy a threat to right now?

In post 2250, votato wrote:pretty sure thats it. so i think if we lynch hellbooks and then think really hard today about what tomorrow's lynch ought to be if she flips town then we should be golden.

I understand if I can't fight against this lynch, like completely. I mean, my dunn read was pretty atrocious and it's natural that the consequence for that is a lynch. But I'll try to give some arguments in this regard. If I were dunn's partner townreading I'd have tried to put forth a counterwagon instead of being okay with his lynch. plus -- why do I kill puppy here??? [i would suggest that actually puppy implicates you + it seems like you know that i'm town here with this statement.]

In post 2252, VP Baltar wrote:Pedit: Hellbrooks and I were in the middle of a convo yesterday, Mavs, and I think it is probably fair for me to give her a chance to continue today.

Yeah. let me go back and respond once I get through what's happened today so far.

In post 2255, mavsfan41 wrote:Gimme something hellbooks. Who do you think is scum and why? Any guesses on why R2R is still alive?

Well, here's a reason on why R2R is alive -- ??? :shrug:

In post 2260, ready2rock wrote:Interested to hear from hellbooks, particularly how the Dunn flip alters her potential scum

Yeah. I think VP is town

In post 2260, ready2rock wrote:Also since I haven't played a non-open setup in a while, is there any possibility that there are 4 scum and we're in lylo? Or am I getting too worried and that's out of the question?

really weird to say but also plausible that you're out of the loop here. Yeah there's no way it's 4 scum. this statement is a point in your favor -- not that scum isn't capable of faking a statement like this and in fact i would say it's even likely that scum would fake this -- but it seems very unnecessary for a scum in your position to raise this point

In post 2273, votato wrote:hellbooks, you are today's inevitable lynch. if you're scum, could you do us a favor and just tell us so we can end the game? if you're town, it would be great to get some proper contribution from you today so we are well-prepared for lylo tomorrow.

Welcome to my proper contribution. Town blood runs through my veins.

In post 2274, ready2rock wrote:Someone needs to explain to me why scum!hellbooks would NK the ONLY person in the game that wasn't scumreading her

Another [mild] point in R2R's favor. If he's the scum, the natural thing to do is push my mislynch along. Especially since he's positioned nicely to do so by holding a scumread on me from yesterday. However, it's plausible that he feels comfortable enough that this mislynch will happen to mildly push against it for cred. All in all it pushes the needle towards town, enough so that I think votato is maybe the person to be examining primarily here

Re: claim. I'm VT.

i guess a good argument for puppy to die above r2r and mavs is that scum just thought that the TvS pseudoclear from yesterday would have made him unmislynchable

but hellbooks: who is scum then? me? mav? why?

since im here now ill claim: Im VT

want to go through dunn's iso tonight or tomorrow but yeah I'd say you have good reason to kill puppy + you were pushing VP as the dunn partner yesterday and have pivoted to me (mislynch of least resistance) for what I see to be no real good reason. mavs -- yeah. I mean it's just weird he's still alive but that's not reason enough in itself I think

ugh how has ready2rock suddenly become my top townread

In post 2281, hellbooks wrote:i guess a good argument for puppy to die above r2r and mavs is that scum just thought that the TvS pseudoclear from yesterday would have made him unmislynchable

This, plus trying to push a hellbooks mislynch, is the reason I think puppy got the NK

I don't care whether VP or I claim first, so I'll leave it up to you guys since votato had an outlined order in mind. I just wanted hellbooks to claim first, which she has.

i think VP goes next

In post 2273, votato wrote:hellbooks, you are today's inevitable lynch.

i literally love the vibe evoked here, it's like "hellbooks, you are today's 100th caller." congratulations, the prize is We will Come to your House and Punch You

I'm VT as well.

OK, short version: I’m a tracker, and hellbooks is clear

Longer version: My first small crumb was in 979 in referring to a track.

So the craziest part of this game to me was that I also investigated and got a guilty result from gamma night 1 (found that he visited Nauci), which, if you go back and read day 2, is why I was so astounded and suspicious at blair suddenly trying to push him out of nowhere. I’m still quite amused that it happened

Night 2 I investigated puppy and found that they visited no one in the night, which I crumbed in 1915 because I thought for sure I was gonna get NK’ed way sooner

In post 1915, ready2rock wrote:As for puppy, in rereading

I was trying to track down a concrete or comprehensive case on puppy last night and just couldn’t find anything

.

Since hellbooks has been my top scumread for quite a while, I’ve investigated her nights 3 and 4 and she hasn’t visited anyone (this was why I was confirming for sure about there being 4 scum, wanted to make sure the only scum alive had to be the one who performed the NK)

I thought about investigating someone else last night, but I wanted to be absolutely certain to sort my, and everyone’s, top scumread

oh fuck!!!!!!! well thanks. lol. Again sorry for like being bad.

absolutely a timeline where I hammer wrong in LYLO and just place the final cherry on top of me fully cocking this game up. However -- I will like try very hard to Not do that

Well I'm glad I chose to investigate you because I absolutely would've bought into the mislynch of you and caused us to waste a day

I will absolutely take the NK in exchange for saving a mislynch.

Right now I think I'm leaning towards votato, but we have plenty of time to work this out

UNVOTE: hellbooks

Lynch votato or VP today and then lynch the other one tomorrow.

Votato, why me instead of VP at this point?

6 town getting NPOM lynched? Seems unlikely.

VP bus’ing his partners late twice? (The Gamma wagon had votato and VP jumped on at the same time at bus like speed.) I could see that. Also, 2252 VP throws out the idea of a Dunn self hammer to end the day while at the same time quicker hammering the crap outta him (effectively a self hammer if done by scum).

@R2R: I claimed in Day 3 and yet you didn’t track me. I figured N3, the tracker was easily going to be on me, really surprised. So I’m guessing you do believe my claim if you didn’t even bother tracking me.

If there is a mislynch today, hellbooks, you’d better be prepared come lylo tomorrow.

VOTE: VP Baltar

Puppy over me? Quick over me? I’ve been pretty suspicious of votato almost the whole game. Multiple occasions I’ve been kinda skeptical about him. Quick came out late day 3 with posts (1705 & 1709) for a VP lynch and was NK’ed. Quick seemed uninterested in a votato lynch. I’ve swayed drastically on votato the whole game and haven’t really been interested in a VP lynch since he emerged as town leader day 3.

Although my claim is unsubstantiated, I’m much more of an asset to VP than votato.
Not that it matters.....
Night 1: Dunn
Night 2: midway
Night 3: puppy
Night 4: hellbooks

Too bad Dunn didn’t flip fruit along with his flip... would’ve cleared me instantly.

Mav in voting you because this is an auto win fmpov. I don't like your claim, but i agree that vp is scummier. Im somewhat indifferent to who we lynch today. Early on day 1 i pegged you as town and vp as scum so id be very happy if vp is indeed scum. I just have a hard time swallowing that you didn't understand your role

Sweet! This just got much easier.

Mavs, so if I'm reading you right, you're saying your case on me is NK analysis, which you have repeatedly said this game is WIFOM?

Seems like a cornered scum reaction looking for the only lynches he can get at this point: me and votato

@votato & VP: I get it, we’re all pointing at each other saying how town wins via a back to back lynch of the other two.

@VP: a little NKA sure. I know it’s subject to WIFOM. I also take some issue with your hypothesis of a Dunn self-hammer where your hammer was so quick it is in essence a self hammer (if you were scum). You and votato both jumped on Gamma at the same time (aka one of you bus’ed in that situation too). So i guess it makes more sense that you wouldn’t bus until the very last second. Votato on me gave intent to hammer before delivering the hammer. Idk, I’m pretty torn right now since I haven’t done a super in-depth read of both yet.

To clarify, votato providing intent to hammer me means his hammer of Gamma he believed he was putting Gamma at L-1. It doesn’t help that both votes happened with the same time stamp. VP didn’t provide an intent to hammer Dunn. Meaning he wanted it done ASAP, implying a bus and ending the day quicker.