In post 2296, Battle Mage wrote:because you know you need a mislynch tomorrow to justify bussing your partner today.
Here you are again knowing Dunnstral is scum.
Yet you keep claiming you're undecided.
Go ahead. Help me "bus my partner." We can deal with the next step after.
I've already said I'm not 100% sure, so no? And in fact, even you've said you're not 100% sure, so why you'd be making such a dumb play as town is anybody's guess. Although there must be at least 1 townie on that wagon. I guess this is a newbie game though so I should set the bar lower.
Besides, Aloratom is smarter than me - if he's town and thinks we should hammer, then we will anyway.
Just don't be embarrassed that I've caught you - it was really easy.
In post 2262, Dunnstral wrote:OK, so obviously I misinterpreted what the jailkeeper was doing, because that makes no sense
It doesn't actually matter if it was true or not (it wasn't, as even you attest now)
What matters is that you claimed you believed it was true while simultaneously claiming you received no result that night.
No one who received No Result would believe that.
In post 2259, Blair wrote:The follow up to that is: If Dunnstral were telling the truth, really was the Tracker, and really did receive "No Result" on Night 1, Dunnstral never would have believed that the Jailkeeper targeted the Rolecop, because he would know that was impossible.
Dunnstral claims to believe that Aloratom is the Jailkeeper, crumbled that they jailed Blair, and Blair roleblocked him, causing him to receive no result Night 1.
This is impossible.
Dunnstral claims it is possible because whenever the two roles conflict, Roleblocker resolves first. But the two roles aren't conflicting unless we target each other, which he is claiming did not occur.
Nauci is actually right. Natural Action Resolution, and all other forms of night action order resolution, only apply in situations where two roles target each other or otherwise conflict.
So Roleblocker would resolve before Jailkeeper
if the Roleblocker and Jailkeeper target each other.
Not every single time a Roleblocker is jailed.
Dunnstral is essentially suggesting that Roleblockers are
immune
to Jailkeepers (because their action would always resolve first, no matter who they target).
I'm about 99% positive Roleblockers are not immune to Jailkeepers, so Dunnstral is lying here.
In post 2244, Aloratom wrote:I still oppose a mass claim. I have yet to see from anyone the logic behind doing so.
The logic:
1. Everyone knows 100% there is scum between Blair/Dunnstral
2. This means town has a 50% shot at nailing scum by lynching between those two players. Waiting until tomorrow does not improve those odds.
3. Lynching between those two players today means that the non-Blair/Dunn players (i.e. the players deciding the lynch, since Dunn and I are voting each other) are 75% town. If we wait until tomorrow, the players deciding the lynch are only 67% town.
4. The more townies we have deciding this lynch, the better.
5. We have no mislynches left, so we need to make this count.
In post 2119, Blair wrote:The fact that Dunn outright states he was gunning for me to claim before him and BM had already moved me up the list is interesting.
Interesting how? Isn't that NAI? Like, if Dunn isn't lying, that's exactly the order he'd want to catch you in a lie? A maneuver that you yourself are absolutely expert at? And BM would do that as scum but would also do that as town who scumreads you?
You're misinterpreting me here (check the context).
I wasn't suggesting that the correlation made Dunnstral more likely to be scum (I already know Dunnstral is scum, he cannot be more than 100% likely from my perspective). I was suggesting that Battle Mage was more likely to be his partner, since Battle Mage reorganized his preferred claim order to move me from near the bottom to second-from-the-top
before
Dunnstral claimed and made it clear that I should claim next. I'm suggesting it appears coordinated.
In post 2182, Blair wrote:@Nauci I notoriously hate this Newbie setup (I say as much every time it comes up) and I very publicly fumbled the setup analysis in that game you referenced. (Although my Day 1 wagon analysis was 100% accurate!)
So yes, you really did just witness me assessing the setup and trying to suss out which sub-setup we're in. I'm actually pretty proud of the fact that I was able to identify it based off of one fake claim with no flipped PRs.
As for your point that Dunn would know (if he weren't lying scum) about the Jailkeeper due to receiving no result, I guess so but scum could have no killed so you don't technically know that in that scenario.
More importantly, I think it's worth mentioning here that A) I was not operating from the mindset of actually believing Dunnstral in the first place and B) Dunnstral didn't even use this super obvious explanation himself when responding to that very question.
In post 2164, Blair wrote:Genuine scumslips are so rare nowadays - this is exciting!
In post 2161, Blair wrote:Now that I'm realizing that, this is interesting:
In post 2077, Dunnstral wrote:My slot targeted Formerfish night 1 - Received no result (implying a roleblocker or jailkeeper -> there has to be a jailkeeper because someone stopped a kill and it wasn't me)
It never occurred to Dunnstral that there could be a Doctor in the setup, because it never occurred to him that we could be in B3.
Because he's known we weren't in that column since Day 2.
In post 2155, Blair wrote:You'd still be confirmed scum to me, silly, but there isn't a power role in that setup that can know for sure that you're lying.
In post 2105, Blair wrote:No, Nauci, I'm town because Dunnstral tracked a VT.
I'm just pointing out, in addition to that, there is no scenario in which scum!Blair doesn't try to take another PR down with me here.
Scum can't quickhammer and win the game as soon as one Townie votes for another Townie. Two Townies have to vote wrong (together) for Scum to quickhammer and win.
Cons:
Each Townie has three potential suspects, meaning a random vote has only a 33% chance of hitting scum.
If we No Lynch today and lynch tomorrow:
2 Townies
1 Scum
Pros:
Each Townie has only two potential suspects, meaning a random vote has a 50% chance of hitting scum.
Cons:
Scum can quickhammer and win as soon as just one Townie votes for another Townie.
In my opinion, we should mass claim today and then decide.
Why? Because the cons of lynching today only apply if we are voting "randomly." If the mass claim gives us enough information to lynch non-randomly, then we should lynch today, while we have more townies and it is harder for scum to steal the win.
If the mass claim doesn't reveal anything to us and our lynch still feels effectively random, then we should no lynch and put it off until tomorrow, when our odds for a random scum lynch are better.
I've already claimed, so I nominate my top scumread to claim next:
Battle Mage
Posted: Sun Jun 07, 2020 7:50 am
by Battle Mage
Given you're probably the only scum left, I'm fine with that. I'm vanilla town.
Posted: Sun Jun 07, 2020 7:50 am
by Blair
(I'll support everyone claiming as soon as the previous claim has nominated them, but let the record show my preferred claim order is: Battle Mage, Nauci, Tuxedo)
Posted: Sun Jun 07, 2020 7:52 am
by Battle Mage
with respect, I do ask that fellow players take everything Blair says today on game strategy with a pinch of salt. I'm very happy if you treat me in the same regard.