Mafiascum.net

Cerulean was one of my weaker townreads, but I've become more certain with the stuff they've posted in the neighborhood

Just got back, cba answering stuff right now, will do so sometime tomorrow.

↑ Zdenek wrote:

BT's 559 - I'm not sure that scum-BT calls a vote on a buddy wasted. He'd be more likely to think that the vote was legit.

Don't see this as any kind of town tell. Why wouldn't scum-BT want to discredit votes on his partners wagon? Especially a tracker?

zdenek wrote:
Finally, there's Cerulean. Their behavior at the start of Day 2 bothers me. At the end of Day 1, they said that they found Action Dan townie for how he claimed. At the start of Day 2, they were calling Action Dan one of their top suspects. They were also arguing that Action Dan should have been open about who he neihborized because he was saved from a lynch by his claim. Now, Action Dan was under some pressure at the time, but he wasn't at L-1 when he claimed, and it was far from clear that he would have been run up to claim otherwise because there were a lot of people who were suspicious of TGAH. So this line of questioning of Action Dan by Cerulean reads as disingenuous.

I did think that ActionDan's manner of claiming seemed townish. But that doesn't completely erase all of my suspicion of that slot. And I also said that a scum neighborizer was entirely possible in this situation. Dan and everyone knows that who a neighborizer chooses and why can help with furthering a read on someone. And, as far as I'm concerned he was saved by his claim/manner of claiming. The momentum was there to swing against Dan, and it was stopped by the way he went about things, so for him to posture about not claiming who he neighborized made no sense to me and made it seem like he had something to hide. But I wrote a long wall about my thoughts on that slot and I'm not going to repeat myself.

zdenek wrote:

↑ Cerulean wrote:.S.: You guys really need to consider Jason as well, especially given the sottyrulez kill).

Why do you think this?

Jason was a strong scum read for us day one, and he really hasn't done anything to read as town. The only thing that clears him is his gambit and the push that TGAH gave to him. But we're a bit concerned that TGAH was trying to get recruited. And Empire thinks that he would be more likely to kill sotty since they were starting to get concerned about him.

zdenek wrote:
Can you also explain your scum read on Nost, and why you had Benmage on the list of people you've narrowed it down to when he's been a town read of yours all game?

The Nost thing is something we're mulling over. I can't follow his thought process or where he gets his ideas from at all, which is always a concern for me. The push on Sotty was ridiculous as well. Our one drawback is we're not sure if he would kill his biggest suspect. They weren't going to get lynched, but meh. Just don't have any positive feelings from him overall.

Are you really asking why we're reassessing our reads? We looked at everyone again at the start of day and only pulled out people who we felt we could clear based on role claims, reaction to claims, interactions with absta, and neighborhood interactions. Benmage doesn't fit any of those. But empire said in Post 2205 that we went over his iso and meta again and we've discussed it and still have a strong town read there.

Ughh I think playing rugby below 40 got me sick. Fighting something so I still havent done anything.

↑ Cerulean wrote:Are you really asking why we're reassessing our reads?

Not why, but how.

↑ Zdenek wrote:

↑ Cerulean wrote:Are you really asking why we're reassessing our reads?

Not why, but how.

I don't think I understand the question if you're still asking how as I think I answered the how in my last post.

↑ Cerulean wrote:

↑ Zdenek wrote:

↑ Cerulean wrote:Are you really asking why we're reassessing our reads?

Not why, but how.

I don't think I understand the question if you're still asking how as I think I answered the how in my last post.

I'm not still asking. You just seemed so incredulous that I'd even have asked you about this.

↑ Nostredeus wrote:I find town pick a target and go for them whilst considering other cases and being willing to move their vote a lot, they almost never play opportunistically.

are you saying that town never tunnel? because I can assure you I have tunneled many, many times as town. What do you think of Jason and Ben's tunnels on me?

Also, are you calling vote-hopping a town tell? Because I can also assure you that scum are extremely willing to vote hop.

Like, really honestly, the things that you've mentioned you "find town" to do and "find that scum do" are mostly dependent on the player. Or even their mood.

↑ Cerulean wrote:Don't see this as any kind of town tell. Why wouldn't scum-BT want to discredit votes on his partners wagon? Especially a tracker?

It seems like a high risk, low reward move for scum at that moment. TML wasn't voting for absta then, and wasn't being pushed.

What do you think of Benmage's unwillingness to vote for Absta?

↑ Zdenek wrote:

↑ Cerulean wrote:Don't see this as any kind of town tell. Why wouldn't scum-BT want to discredit votes on his partners wagon? Especially a tracker?

It seems like a high risk, low reward move for scum at that moment. TML wasn't voting for absta then, and wasn't being pushed.

What do you think of Benmage's unwillingness to vote for Absta?

Eh that remark seems rather minor. Can't get to townreading him based on that.

I wasn't incredulous; the question just surprised me is all.

I don't really think much of it, but I just looked and can't find where he was unwilling to vote Absta. I'm pretty sick and drugged up right now though so I could have easily missed it; if you point me to where you're talking about I'll look at it tomorrow. His statement that he has a hard time reading inexperience is consistent with what I know of him though.

Well the specific post is this one 415, but in general, he says very little about Absta, and doesn't vote him. In my past experience with Benmage he'd probably be willing to vote for someone like Absta, even if he was reading him as town, so the fact that never happened bothers me.

General question: How town were Shadoweh and sottyrulez? Like, were they generally considered town by most everyone in the game?

Other than that, bleh. I've narrowed down the list of people who aren't currently town reads to Benmage, camn, Cerulean, DeasVail, and Nostredeus. Somewhere in this thread is an argument and/or generally held belief that camn cannot be absta101's partner, so cross her out for the time being. Benmage, Cerulean, and DeasVail are people I haven't gotten to reading yet, though apparently Cerulean is really town and that sottyrulez had a strong town read of Benmage which, for some reason, seems compelling. The list that remains really can't be it, even considering that I'm sort of wavering on BT, so there's probably something wrong with the town reads.

Can someone poke holes in these, please?

I had a town read of BT based on his behavior at the end of Day 2, when it was down to either him or Ser Arthur Dayne getting lynched. The posts where BT admits that he would rather his own wagon go through instead of Ser Arthur Dayne's to stop the BT-scum suspicions felt genuine. There's also Vifam's behavior early on Day 1; posts 36 through 45 felt spontaneous, even though he bombed jasonT1981's gambit. Just feels like Vifam wasn't thinking when he posted those things, which tends to happen more with a town mindset. Really, though, the only reason I'm waffling on this slot is DeasVail's and kuribo's insistence on BT being scum. Probably should check out their cases.

jasonT1981, kuribo, Plessiezarus, ChannelDelibird, and Shaft. Meh? I don't know what I'd change with these, really. If sottyrulez says jasonT1981 is town, he's town, not to mention that gambit jasonT1981 tried to pull with the name claims early on. kuribo's town because kuribo and because it really looks like ActionDan thought he'd caught scum back when he'd counterclaimed. Plessiezarus looks town? So does ChannelDelibird. Actually, I'm fairly sure ChannelDelibird is town, even though I never wrote down a reason why. Huh. Might find it again if I ever get back to rereading end of Day 2. Shaft I'm fairly sure didn't fake his claim, and that modifier would make for a shitty scum doctor.

That was a lot of words that said nothing.

I've got some time tomorrow to read more, so if you lot aren't yet tired of Day 3, there may be more words yet.

Posting that I still think BT is scum, and Equniox is a maybe. I haven't been able to read properly though.

↑ Equinox wrote:General question: How town were Shadoweh and sottyrulez? Like, were they generally considered town by most everyone in the game?

Shadoweh picked up quite a few votes early on Day 1, but I think she was generally seen as town by the end of the day, yes. She had very few posts in the second half of the day, really - I think people weren't paying her much attention either way.

Sottyrulez was seen as town by most people, but Nost, BT and Jason all claimed scum-reads on them of various strengths during Day 2.

↑ Equinox wrote:Somewhere in this thread is an argument and/or generally held belief that camn cannot be absta101's partner, so cross her out for the time being.

"Cannot be" seems a bit strong, but "is unlikely to be", sure. (Absta had a big push on camn at the end of day 1, and if you check his previous scum games it seems unlikely he would have treated a partner like this.)

↑ Equinox wrote:If sottyrulez says jasonT1981 is town, he's town

Er. But Sotty stopped saying Jason was town on Day 2 . Not sure they went as far as calling Jason scum (though they did vote for them in 1084) but they repeatedly said their day 1 town-read was wavering (1169, 1518), they accused him of coasting (1573) and they pressed him to explain unacknowleged changes in his reads (1696). Definitely didn't have him as a town-read anymore.

I also don't see the "gambit" as any sort of town-tell (it wasn't ruined by Vifam, but by Jason's own earlier posts).

Difficult to see Jason as Police though, given TGAH's big push on him. (That's assuming that TGAH knew who the Police were but that none of the Police knew that TGAH was a Traitor until he flipped.)

~ Pless

Oh, also:

↑ Nostredeus wrote:Just got back, cba answering stuff right now, will do so sometime tomorrow.

When you get around to replying to things, please tell us your current read on Jason.

~ Pless

Quick post before I head to class.

↑ Plessiezarus wrote:Difficult to see Jason as Police though, given TGAH's big push on him. (That's assuming that TGAH knew who the Police were but that none of the Police knew that TGAH was a Traitor until he flipped.)

Starting to think this might be too big of an assumption. It's entirely possible that TGAH knew some of their partners but not others and I think I remember Tammy telling me there was a flavor justification for this (e.g., Bubbles apparently only works closely with a couple of Police). For another example, consider that Gay Mafia II had a recruitable traitor role that only knew one of the other four mafia. We don't know what the "modified rolecop" portion of their role means either.

In [url=http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.p...60644#p4760644]post 2341[/url], Cerulean wrote:

In [url=http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.p...60638#p4760638]post 2339[/url], Plessiezarus wrote:(That's assuming that TGAH knew who the Police were but that none of the Police knew that TGAH was a Traitor until he flipped.)

Starting to think this might be too big of an assumption. It's entirely possible that TGAH knew some of their partners but not others and I think I remember Tammy telling me there was a flavor justification for this

Might be a bad assumption, yeah.

Zar is keen to remind me that Faraday likes to tie flavour into his game setups (Aegon's forces being split in ADWD, for instance). Given that, I think it's plausible both that there's more than one traitor and that each traitor only knows some of the police. (Each of the police has different CI working for them?)

And I guess you guys in the QT have probably already considered this, but flavour also suggest that the Police might have the ability to eavesdrop on your neighborhood conversations. In the show, Avon and Stringer work out of a backroom in Orlando's, and the Major Crimes Unit are able to arrest Avon at the end of Season 1 after secretly installing a camera in this room. And it's a show based around (and named after) a wire tap, so ... seems fairly plausible to me.

Could also explain why TML wanted to know the name of ActionDan's neighborhood in 909 (if the Police know they can read a QT called 'Orlando's' but don't know anything else about this QT, for instance).

As for "modified role cop", my own guess is that it means TGAH's results would have been passed directly on to the Police somehow (just as, in the show, Bubbles points out the important members of the Barksdale organisation to the Police by arranging to have them photographed wearing that red hat). But I don't think it's too important to know exactly what "modified role cop" meant given TGAH's lynch.

~ Pless

Holy shit Pless is conf town.
I never thought of that... and it EXPLAINS EVERYTHING.

Why else would there even BE a neighborhood?
I have thought this whole time that that was a useless thing... an unconfirmed QT... but it is totally just in existence so it can be wiretapped.

Brilliant.
Both pless and the mod.
Brilliant.

Also.. lets get practical here people.
we all have slightly different ideas on who is scum, this is clear.
It also feels like we are fatigued and wifomed out....but it is early. Its basically day one of a mini....so lets all play a game.
Let's assume for a second that all three, BT, TML, and Equinox, are all town, and we are all wrong about everything.
Which of those three presumed townies do you think are the least helpful to the game? Which one the most likely to totally screw us in endgame?
Because that townie must die.

Cracking theory, Pless.

Camn, you do realise that TML and Equinox are one and the same? And I don't quite understand what you're getting at with the imagine-they're-town thing either...

Holy fucking shit

I've never really watched the show but that makes sense and it sounds like the kind of swerve one might expect


Holy shit

And I refuse to assume BT is town

I know, right!

And sorry, delibird... I meant BT, Equinox and yourself, obviously.

Phone post real quick, so no quotes.

The thing I'm worried about is why Shadoweh and sottyrulez were arrested specifically, especially when there were claims running around, yet they're almost nothing alike from what I could tell from reading them in isolation. With Plessiezarus's response in mind, I'll take a look at ActionDan, Zdenek, and maybe Kise.

Plessiezarus, I noticed that about sottyrulez's read of jasonT1981, though by the end, they semmed to settle on him being town. Not as adamant as before, though.

Also, confirming that Faraday has done eavesdropped neighborhoods before in Mini 1192: My Little Pony - Friendship Is Magic Mafia.

camn is right, though, pick someone lest you want another deadline scramble. Only this time it won't be as pretty because the case on my head is the kind that never goes away.