Mini 2018 - American Presidents Mafia (Game Over)

[Nauci]

I just browse the setups in my free time and that's the pattern I've noticed

Fineee I'll put work into reading BV
I've mostly been ignoring him because I townleaned math and he scumreads me and that makes me want to scumread him because I'm apparently bad at disassociating. I'll get back to you soon

I couldn't even figure out why you TR Math so this one I especially want to know! I'll hold off my opinions of you until then I suppose!

[Nauci]

Irrelephant I wish you would stop saying you're voting mom because Bernie told you to.

Skirting responsibility like that is gross and also when did you turn into a Bernie Bro anyway

Also,

@everyone

, would it be useful for Shoshin to announce a doctor target for tonight? Or would that be somehow bad, on the off chance that scum would target someone other than the claimed, widely town read, interrogating-everyone doctor?

[Irrelephant11]

I thought Bernie's turn on Gamma could only come from town, it was too dangerously attention-grabbing to come from scum (re:bernie bro)

He asked us who are less-experienced to trust him. idk, this setup could include information I don't have that he does. I townread him, I only marginally want the worst dead over mom, and he asked us to BoP him if it doesn't work out. I'm not like giving my vote to Bernie, I'm just not voting the worst this game day because I somewhat trust Bernie.

[Nauci]

I still have a hard time seeing why Gus over Skitter. I thought Skitter or Shoshin would have been the most likely targets.

[Shoshin]

Well, there was small part of me that thought her scum equity included being partners with Keyser, which I no longer see.
But also, and mainly, her getting this upset over not being cooperative seems v unlikely as scum. Like I just think she wouldn't think to have an angry response, I'd expect any of fake confusion/scumreading Keyser/taking his side to pocket him/ignoring it entirely instead.

Hbu?

Very different reasons. Context is key. I had just asked her to explain why she townread Key in more detail and then she suddenly starts aggressively questioning him. I don't see scum responding to me in that way. Scum would probably try to "justify" their townread whereas town starts looking at Key again, sees that exchange, and goes off on him. Just a very natural turn that seems very difficult for scum to fake.

[Shoshin]

@Shoshin I think that *everything* Scumrelephant did was calculated, and his votes especially. He was opportunistic, but never blatantly so, and will try to run a wagon up on a player he considers threatening to scum if given the opportunity, as well as fall in line with a popular wagon without the greatest of reasons if necessary, including flip flopping. So don't let Irrelephant sheep without providing perspective, ever. I don't think Scumrrelephant would dare to start any wagons, but I'm not sure if Townrrelephant would either and will need to go read his town game. I do think Scumrrelephant is fairly reluctant to succumb to momentous town reads on formerly easy mislynches though, once he has declared a scum read on someone, unless it's his partner.

Opportunistic, yes. He's jumped around to a lot of popular wagons. But is that calculated? I'm not sure. I could be wrong but I feel like scum don't flop their reads around this much. But you and BV might be right, I'm not that confident in my read by any means. Sort of null for me at this point.

[Nauci]

I thought Bernie's turn on Gamma could only come from town, it was too dangerously attention-grabbing to come from scum (re:bernie bro)

He asked us who are less-experienced to trust him. idk, this setup could include information I don't have that he does. I townread him, I only marginally want the worst dead over mom, and he asked us to BoP him if it doesn't work out. I'm not like giving my vote to Bernie, I'm just not voting the worst this game day because I somewhat trust Bernie.

I think that in the light of recent events (read: claim) and Math-Worst evaluation, I am

extremely

interested in prodding TW to explain what he meant by the NK target comment and potentially claiming if so. I think that it's a major update from when Bernie made the plea.

That, and I'm not seeing a hard scum read on Mom like everyone else seems to. Scummy? Sure. Circumstantially/game state scummy? Also yes. Super ultra gross scum posting? Eh. Seems more like depression apathy (how well I know thee...) + tunneling. I think that after my catch up, even with as much "TW is kind of always like this" anti-bias as I can muster, I just think it's an outright scummier slot.

[Nauci]

@Shoshin I think that *everything* Scumrelephant did was calculated, and his votes especially. He was opportunistic, but never blatantly so, and will try to run a wagon up on a player he considers threatening to scum if given the opportunity, as well as fall in line with a popular wagon without the greatest of reasons if necessary, including flip flopping. So don't let Irrelephant sheep without providing perspective, ever. I don't think Scumrrelephant would dare to start any wagons, but I'm not sure if Townrrelephant would either and will need to go read his town game. I do think Scumrrelephant is fairly reluctant to succumb to momentous town reads on formerly easy mislynches though, once he has declared a scum read on someone, unless it's his partner.

Opportunistic, yes. He's jumped around to a lot of popular wagons. But is that calculated? I'm not sure. I could be wrong but I feel like scum don't flop their reads around this much. But you and BV might be right, I'm not that confident in my read by any means. Sort of null for me at this point.

If you want to know why I think he's extremely calculating about literally everything he posts, just skim our scum thread:

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=94&t=75864

In that game, he managed to come up with reasons for flip flopping on a number of people and always kept track of keeping certain players viable as lynches for both game state and his POV, and went through quite a number of candidates on Day 3.

Just trust me that regardless of alignment, Irrelephant is tryhard AF, whether out loud in game thread or <elsewhere>. (That's as a compliment, Irrelephant!)

I would have expected Townrrelephant to have drowned us in a small deluge of analysis on your claim and the possible connotations by now.

...but maybe he did it in the scum PT, if there is day chat.

[Irrelephant11]

lol PR speculation was teacher's MO, not mine. I guess my initial feeling is that PR speculation helps scum more than town? But maybe post-full-reveal it would be more helpful to think about...

[Shoshin]

I still have a hard time seeing why Gus over Skitter. I thought Skitter or Shoshin would have been the most likely targets.

Scum try to avoid the obvious because they don't want their kill failing.

[Irrelephant11]

But @nauci I'm just busy this week, I barely have time to keep up with the thread. I'd love to be much more tryhard. I could copy/paste all the wagon analysis I did on my own at the start of D2 if you want proof that I continue to be tryhardrelephant (lol the elephant portmanteaus are my fav), but like you say my effort is NAI. I'm trying my hardest, promise

[BlackVoid]

I thought Bernie's turn on Gamma could only come from town, it was too dangerously attention-grabbing to come from scum (re:bernie bro)

He asked us who are less-experienced to trust him. idk, this setup could include information I don't have that he does. I townread him, I only marginally want the worst dead over mom, and

he asked us to BoP him if it doesn't work out.

I'm not like giving my vote to Bernie, I'm just not voting the worst this game day because I somewhat trust Bernie.

What does the bolded entail exactly? What are you going to do if Momrangal flips town? Suspect Bernie?

[BlackVoid]

Reading Elephant's scumgame and private topic, I didn't find any smoking gun that I could use to figure out his alignment here one way or another. He didn't switch his votes around a lot. So, that's something new he's doing here and hasn't done it before as either alignment.

[BlackVoid]

I tried looking to see what Invisibility's scumrange is but I can't really rule him out either. He's posted too little overall and there's been some rehashing of other's points for me to take him out of the POE pool.

Basically, the only things I feel confident about here is that my four strong townreads (skitter, shoshin, Bernie, Gustavo) are town. Gustavo's latest posting helped eliminate any doubts I had.

Other than that, I could see any of the remaining seven people as plausibly scum to varying degrees. I don't know if I have enough time to rule out more people today.

I'm going to do a quick ISO of each of those players and probably vote within TheWorst/Momrangal when I get home from work tonight. I think errantparabola is skating under the radar and not attracting as much attention as he should. @Skitter, I'll get back to you on the links you posted for TheWorst. Also, thoughts on Errantparabola?

[BlackVoid]

It might actually be a good idea for TheWorst/Momrangal to claim. If we're going to wait all the way until intent is given, we're probably going to scramble towards deadline and it seems pretty obvious that those are our likely options.

[Shoshin]

I agree. Getting their claims now will save us a lot of trouble later.

[Shoshin]

BV, what do you think of the way Nauci started questioning Key after we asked her to explain her townread on him? Doesn't seem towny to you?

[brassherald]

Franklin Delano Roosevelt was no stranger to his cousins, either, in fact, he married one of them, another fifth cousin, Eleanor Roosevelt.

Votecount 2.10

momrangal (5)

~ Bernie Sanders, skitter30, Errantparabola, the worst, Irrelephant11

the worst (2)

~ Keyser Soze, Nauci

Keyser Soze (1)

~ shoshin

Gustavo (1)

~ Not_Mafia

Not Voting (2): BlackVoid, Momrangal, Gustavo,

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2018-07-15 20:30:00)

[Bernie Sanders]

It might actually be a good idea for TheWorst/Momrangal to claim. If we're going to wait all the way until intent is given, we're probably going to scramble towards deadline and it seems pretty obvious that those are our likely options.

Excuse me
We're not getting 2 claims

Blackvoid I thought you would know better than this wtf

I guess mom can claim if she wants but tbh I really don't think I'd believe any PR claim that comes out of her to begin with.

[Shoshin]

Nothing wrong with getting two claims imo.

[the worst]

@brass, mom is on 5 votes not 4 & 3 people aren't voting :>

[the worst]

It might actually be a good idea for TheWorst/Momrangal to claim. If we're going to wait all the way until intent is given, we're probably going to scramble towards deadline and it seems pretty obvious that those are our likely options.

you fucking wish scumboy

[Bernie Sanders]

I mean you also thought claiming was worth it because of just one person scumreading you.

[Bernie Sanders]

and TW you really have to read 2194

[the worst]

dones