Posted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:38 pm
(expired on 2020-03-13 23:58:00)
why did you give up on taking the 4 SPARE route here?In post 1690, Chara wrote:alright.
i see the arguments for lynching today. i'm assuming they're sound, mechanics Chara is taking a nap at the moment.
pedit: why do we lynch me on a Nacho townflip?
i'd be happy to spare Replica if that's on the table.
I thought about this at work a little bit. I don't think that Farkran really derailed any potential chance of a Chara spare, and I think that him blitzing against a Chara/Hectic/whatever spread (a spread of people who were much more townread than he was) was indicative of the scumteam being in a better position than Farkran and I ever were. As in, Farkran playing with Chara as a universally townread partner probably figured that he was going down eventually, which is why he mostly tried to sew in paranoia so that he could support his partner and prepare his partner for endgame.In post 2405, Hectic wrote:also, why does scum!Farkran derail any potential chance of a Chara SPARE?
The truth is that his spare list was 100% town whereas others were not.In post 665, Psyche wrote:Suji
Sherlock
Hectic
Nachomamma
Me
I'd bet the whole game on this entire group being town. And god surely hates someone in the scumteam if the IC isn't among these. I simply do not need any scumreads this game and don't care if you don't like it. Let's just end this and go next.
In post 816, Chara wrote:HURT: FarkranIn post 813, Farkran wrote:More gratuitous shade - there is nothing in my theory that i haven't been explaining solidly and properly, even if you believe i am wrong. Resorting to omgus-fossing when you are out of arguments is not the correct move.
the solidity of your theory or the consistency of your explanation has little to do with your towniness. it does have everything to do with scum who try to be correct in order to avoid being caught in a contradiction.
it also doesn't make any sense if you scumread Replica to word it this way. it's like you're saying if town Replica should find your argument sound, when the point of what you're saying is that they're scum.
that's not quite exactly what i mean but i hope it comes across.
In post 818, Chara wrote:i was talking about Hectic. but your jumping to your own defense on that is telling.In post 815, Farkran wrote:I don't know if the bolded is directed to me, but in case it is, it's a misrep. I explicitly said i would compromise on pretty much anything if i am the last active player 10 minutes from deadline.
In post 1708, Bingle wrote:I suppose I should explain. We lynch scum and spare literally anyone tomorrow: either no scum were spared and the game is over because scum shoot themselves or the remaining scum is in Hectic/Tomorrow spare.
Potential teams for eight unflipped players is kind of a lot of ground to cover, but I think we can rule out a significant number of teams.
Chara unvotes Farkran eventually because it wants to focus on sparing you (fine, I understand), but there's never a reason for Chara to back down from the Farkran scumread. Chara never attacks Chemist in this way or talks about Farkran in a way where it's suddenly convinced that he's town. However, Day 2, Replica and Amrun are both voting Farkran, which is a wagon that if it goes through wins town the game. Who derails it?In post 964, Chara wrote:what Sherlock said about Chemist's style lines up, and from what i know of Chemist it makes sense as well.In post 957, Hectic wrote:hmm.In post 949, Chara wrote:i TR Amrun, it's not lock but i've come around on her, particularly in her interactions with Sujimichi. why do you scumread her?
i didn't like her giving in to SPARING Sujimichi after she was so vehemently against the concept of SPARING.
but y'know, looking back, that actually came after Sujimichi claimed FN and her defence of Nacho did look very towny.
nevermind pal.
do you agree with my take on Chemist?
i've been reading Sherlock's 452 but i don't get why those questions make him town when he rarely ever follows up on them and i can't see reads that have been formed off of them.
hell if i know.
maybe he's just a close to the chest type of player.
it's enough i don't really want to lynch Chemist, but i wouldn't spare him either. if he was more into the game i think i could be more confident, at least in terms of securing a townread. he could be trying to skirt along and avoid a lynch, but that would indicate to me (from scum Chemist) that he thinks his partner is in a good position now.
i think that scum would be putting more into this, especially given how the game looks right now. but i know that's not the most reliable measure. i do think a large part of it is playstyle, he's reticent as town by Sherlock's knowledge.
i'm interested in what he thinks of Farkran's case.
pedit: hello Chemist! why do you TR Hectic now?
The same person who was attacking Farkran for the entirety of yesterday now suddenly will only vote him if it's "literally the only option". The same person who had Farkran as their only actual scumread and was waffling on Chemist the day before - the same person who very much wants to spare and not kill. This makes absolutely no sense from town!Chara's perspective - either Chara is willing to compromise with a HURT in which case it votes its strongest scumread she was attacking for the entire day before or it doesn't compromise and let's the wagon go through on either one of the Chemist/Farkran duo that it called "extremely obvious". But instead, it was the only that forced Amrun to move over off scum and onto town in order to save scum the game.In post 2027, Chara wrote:HEAL: Replica
i'm disappointed that my preference is still what i started the day with except i'm not. this is objectively the right thing to do. Replica's town, nothing i've looked at has really changed that and myonlyproblem with the slot is he goes for a Bingle spare every time before one on himself. but i understand why. also if he is scum then the whole frustration bit would i think have to be faked.
re: Farkran's last post i really don't think Replica has been anything near unpleasant. he just scumreads you. he's also been analyzing, you just disagree. and you're wrong too, given you have Hectic scum still and i find it really pointless to argue about that further either.
HURT: Chemist
i want to spare Replica, but if for some reason that's not happening this is the only hurt vote i'm making today. and i'm sorry but while he probably is town if this is right i'm not comfortable sparing Bingle. i'm actually not sure if a Bingle mispare or a Chemist mislynch is worse. probably a flip is better than no flip. Bingle is a vague townread based on his posting today which i've liked, and Chemist is poe + i think a struggle to produce genuine content.
Chemist/Farkran does seem extremely obvious. i didn't manage to really get a read on Nacho i'm happy with, but i think he could be badly absent scum with Chemist (though i feel like scum Nacho woud make more of an effort? but this is a guess i don't know him well, based on my impressions from this game and what other players have said). i could see absent scum Chemist a little better, and especially his last few posts feel like an attempt at content that is just... there, and leads to a Bingle/Nacho solve.
and if Farkran is scum i find it unlikely it's with Nacho. as for Farkran himself, i'd compromise on that if it's literally the only option but i would absolutely prefer just sparing Replica. a Farkran townflip is probably good information too, scumflip's obviously good, but this consistent choice to double down on Hectic being scum as a scum strategy seems like a ridiculous amount of effort and i don't really understand it. also players i clash with this heavily do tend to be town more often than scum, though that feels anecdotal.
if Amrunisscum i haven't really checked who it would be with.
i'm going back home today but i have mafia time this evening. i wish i'd had the thought earlier of scum being absolutely unable to hard bus today because someone did mention it much earlier, and i knew it, and for whatever reason only now did the thought occur to me that scum who cannot bus means you wagon the hell out of the game.
addressing the possibility of being wrong leads to a paranoia spiral for me more often than not. deciding to throw everything away late game has affected my play adversely previously, and i had already made the decision going in to this day that i would be voting you; it was only your approach to the day that made me waver and want to double check, which i did do.In post 2403, Nachomamma8 wrote:I'll get you your "scummiest thing by Chara daily" when I'm back and reading the Farkran-Chara ISO, but the biggest red flag that I see with the benefit of hindsight bias is the passivity. While we were ripping each other apart yesterday, Chara was more hanging back instead of actually engaging. When we first transitioned to lynching instead of sparing, Chara was protesting, but it wasn't protesting in a significant way, just sort of a quiet voice in back that was still putting down kill votes it didn't particularly care for.
I also think the transition into today is strange; Chara hasn't really gotten the opportunity to post or engage because of real life stuff but it frames the decision coming into today as one that was made the second it came in the thread - I think that Chara is a paranoid person like you and I and I don't think that it would be comfortable making the decision without addressing the possibility of being wrong more than it has so far.
i forget who else was, but i do know it was more than Farkran and Amrun (the latter of whom i did townread). i didn't give up, i still wanted a spare, but i was open to lynching if there was a player i was alright lynching, which there was, though it was wrong.In post 2406, Hectic wrote:why did you give up on taking the 4 SPARE route here?In post 1690, Chara wrote:alright.
i see the arguments for lynching today. i'm assuming they're sound, mechanics Chara is taking a nap at the moment.
pedit: why do we lynch me on a Nacho townflip?
i'd be happy to spare Replica if that's on the table.
did you think the people proposing lynching as optimal were town?
Farkran was one of them
Farkran wasn't my strongest scumread at the time, a fact that's very obvious by the post you quoted. and portraying it as though i "suddenly" changed my mind as if i didn't spend a lot of time trying to come at the read from different angles, as well as having a really difficult time with my read on Farkran as a whole, is ignoring the actual circumstances in favour of making it seem like my progression was sudden or doesn't make sense. Chemist was my strongest scumread at the time, that's why that's where i put my hurt vote. my preference was sparing Replica and it always had been. i voted Chemist because i wanted a hurt vote down given deadline was coming up, and because it a hurtIn post 2410, Nachomamma8 wrote:The same person who was attacking Farkran for the entirety of yesterday now suddenly will only vote him if it's "literally the only option". The same person who had Farkran as their only actual scumread and was waffling on Chemist the day before - the same person who very much wants to spare and not kill. This makes absolutely no sense from town!Chara's perspective - either Chara is willing to compromise with a HURT in which case it votes its strongest scumread she was attacking for the entire day before or it doesn't compromise and let's the wagon go through on either one of the Chemist/Farkran duo that it called "extremely obvious". But instead, it was the only that forced Amrun to move over off scum and onto town in order to save scum the game.
This is the smoking gun - this is the only post of anyone's that you should be reading today.
there's a pretty major difference between attacking someone you're pushing, who you're frustrated with, and attacking someone in lylo when you already know they're scum and so you don't need to worry about reading them anymore. and i know you know this.In post 2409, Nachomamma8 wrote:Chara doesn't have that bite when interacting with any other of its scumreads this game; fuck, I'm supposedly confirmed as scum to Chara here but it never quite addresses me with this confidence. I think that when Farkran replaced in, Chara saw its partner attacking the strongest town player in the game and going off the rails a bit so responded with some confirmation bias distancing. I don't think it's natural for a townie to be super confident about only scumread they had that was correct and then not really confident about any other push ever; town put themselves out there and get egg on their faces because they are so horribly and spectacularly wrong.
your disappearing wasn't related to the game, you said that yourself, so you can't pretend that you would have somehow been more present had you been scum. pretty sure you were trying to deescalate you vs. Farkran so that youIn post 2411, Nachomamma8 wrote:And I'm so glad I didn't get quickhammered in a pedit right there because that was a legitimate fear of mine for a second. But, I'm not doing the Day 4/Day 5 thing unless you really need it because ^that^ is the most important piece. If scum lost the game immediately by a Nacho or Fakran lynch then there's no fucking way that Farkran tunnels me the entire day and I disappear the entire day only to spend the entirety of the next day calling him town town town before actually lynching him Day 5 or whenever the hell that was when we lynched him - the risk/reward for towncred just straight up isn't worth it. Chara having an unexplained change of heart on Day 3 and just coincidentally being the most pivotal vote to save their chances of winning is something that just doesn't happen out of coincidence.
this isn't the only instance, but using language like "suddenly, Chara does this" as though there's zero explanation anywhere, or denying that reasons exist outright, just shows you're constructing the best narrative to fit. there's literally the reason i was uncomfortable lynching Farkran in the gotcha post you quoted, and that's not the only time i talked about it.In post 2410, Nachomamma8 wrote:Chara unvotes Farkran eventually because it wants to focus on sparing you (fine, I understand), but there's never a reason for Chara to back down from the Farkran scumread.
In post 816, Chara wrote:HURT: FarkranIn post 813, Farkran wrote:More gratuitous shade - there is nothing in my theory that i haven't been explaining solidly and properly, even if you believe i am wrong. Resorting to omgus-fossing when you are out of arguments is not the correct move.
the solidity of your theory or the consistency of your explanation has little to do with your towniness. it does have everything to do with scum who try to be correct in order to avoid being caught in a contradiction.
it also doesn't make any sense if you scumread Replica to word it this way. it's like you're saying if town Replica should find your argument sound, when the point of what you're saying is that they're scum.
that's not quite exactly what i mean but i hope it comes across.
In post 931, Chara wrote:HEAL: Hectic
HURT: Farkran
Hectic, do you have any scumreads?
i also don't think we have enough yet. at least not a tight enough PoE that i'm willing to bet the game on it. more from alimdia/Nacho/Chemist slots would be good.
but i'm pretty confident about being able to reliably find town in the right environment. i just think it will be ruined or at least skewed if we collectively decide to only spare. i was thinking about playing this like coalition, but that was a game that i ended up being confident in exactly 0 townreads in due to the way it was set up.
In post 2027, Chara wrote:HEAL: Replica
i'm disappointed that my preference is still what i started the day with except i'm not. this is objectively the right thing to do. Replica's town, nothing i've looked at has really changed that and myonlyproblem with the slot is he goes for a Bingle spare every time before one on himself. but i understand why. also if he is scum then the whole frustration bit would i think have to be faked.
re: Farkran's last post i really don't think Replica has been anything near unpleasant. he just scumreads you. he's also been analyzing, you just disagree. and you're wrong too, given you have Hectic scum still and i find it really pointless to argue about that further either.
HURT: Chemist
i want to spare Replica, but if for some reason that's not happening this is the only hurt vote i'm making today. and i'm sorry but while he probably is town if this is right i'm not comfortable sparing Bingle. i'm actually not sure if a Bingle mispare or a Chemist mislynch is worse. probably a flip is better than no flip. Bingle is a vague townread based on his posting today which i've liked, and Chemist is poe + i think a struggle to produce genuine content.
Chemist/Farkran does seem extremely obvious. i didn't manage to really get a read on Nacho i'm happy with, but i think he could be badly absent scum with Chemist (though i feel like scum Nacho woud make more of an effort? but this is a guess i don't know him well, based on my impressions from this game and what other players have said). i could see absent scum Chemist a little better, and especially his last few posts feel like an attempt at content that is just... there, and leads to a Bingle/Nacho solve.
and if Farkran is scum i find it unlikely it's with Nacho. as for Farkran himself, i'd compromise on that if it's literally the only option but i would absolutely prefer just sparing Replica. a Farkran townflip is probably good information too, scumflip's obviously good, but this consistent choice to double down on Hectic being scum as a scum strategy seems like a ridiculous amount of effort and i don't really understand it. also players i clash with this heavily do tend to be town more often than scum, though that feels anecdotal.
if Amrunisscum i haven't really checked who it would be with.
i'm going back home today but i have mafia time this evening. i wish i'd had the thought earlier of scum being absolutely unable to hard bus today because someone did mention it much earlier, and i knew it, and for whatever reason only now did the thought occur to me that scum who cannot bus means you wagon the hell out of the game.
Funny how Chemist was your strongest scumread and became the only vote you would make and yet this post was not long before that post at all.In post 1907, Chara wrote:current gamestate: i don't have the best sense of it honestly. i currently think we're sitting on two town spares and that both scum are in Nacho/Farkran/Chemist. if Amrun is scum she isn't trying to be spared and if Bingle is scum then i don't think Replica would be having quite as tough a time making that happen.
i'm aware going for mislynches is as valid a strategy, so no need to bring that up. reexamining Amrun is lower priority than Nacho but probably easier. Bingle and Amrun are never aligned but i imagine that's really obvious.
Suddenly, not suddenly, doesn't matter much, does it? Your focus is semantics to take away from my point that scum would have lost without your vote on Chemist. There's not a trackable progression in your posts to explain that vote on Chemist.In post 2420, Chara wrote:"suddenly, Chara does this" as though there's zero explanation anywhere, or denying that reasons exist outright, just shows you're constructing the best narrative to fit. there's literally the reason i was uncomfortable lynching Farkran in the gotcha post you quoted, and that's not the only time i talked about it.