to make. i wanted to spare Replica and i would have compromised to avoid NL.
The only hurt vote you would make. But that doesn't make sense coming from the Chara who was posting Day 2 - how did your Chemist scumread become so much stronger than your Farkran one? Yeah, you were unsure on Farkran but you were also unsure on Chemist so ??????
Posted: Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:09 pm
by Chara
In post 2421, Hectic wrote:HOW_FARKRAN_WENT_FROM_YOUR_TOP_SCUMREAD_TO_NOT_BEING_A_FIGHT_CONSIDERATION. SUMMARISE_WHAT_HE_DID_THAT_MADE_YOU_RECONSIDER_IN_THAT_TIME_FRAME. please.
Is it just him doubling down on me being scum that you didn't see scum doing? Anything else?
it's about a 1000 post timeframe so i really don't think i can summarize it.
basically i was really confident in scum Farkran, i didn't like anything he was doing, i hated both his takes and his attitude, and i was getting really frustrated about it. i started thinking about my experiences when going hard against scum like that, and in my experience i usually don't have so many problems even interacting with actual scum. the total lack of common ground or understanding between us reminded me of the times i've clashed with town and just not been able to find any sort of compromise, to the point i had to give up or just lynch that player while thinking they were town. Farkran's play was so off the wall i was having a hardtime imagining it as a scum strategy, and so it was getting hard to push that or want to vote it when i couldn't rationalize it from a scum perspective besides scum who wanted to cause problems.
Posted: Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:09 pm
by Hectic
In post 2411, Nachomamma8 wrote:And I'm so glad I didn't get quickhammered in a pedit right there because that was a legitimate fear of mine for a second. But, I'm not doing the Day 4/Day 5 thing unless you really need it because ^that^ is the most important piece. If scum lost the game immediately by a Nacho or Fakran lynch then there's no fucking way that Farkran tunnels me the entire day and I disappear the entire day only to spend the entirety of the next day calling him town town town before actually lynching him Day 5 or whenever the hell that was when we lynched him - the risk/reward for towncred just straight up isn't worth it. Chara having an unexplained change of heart on Day 3 and just coincidentally being the most pivotal vote to save their chances of winning is something that just doesn't happen out of coincidence.
Chara
had
the opportunity to hammer you here but instead opted to vote Fakran:
In post 2228, Chara wrote:VOTE: Farkran
i'm too sick to agonize about this for another day. i have the best feeling about Farkran being scum here.
am willing to switch to Bingle if i have to. i probably will if Amrun asks because this is the second time i've avoided her preferred lynch in favour of mine and i feel kind of shitty about that.
to make. i wanted to spare Replica and i would have compromised to avoid NL.
The only hurt vote you would make. But that doesn't make sense coming from the Chara who was posting Day 2 - how did your Chemist scumread become so much stronger than your Farkran one? Yeah, you were unsure on Farkran but you were also unsure on Chemist so ??????
i thought he made more sense as scum, yes it was obviously wrong, i lynched town and didn't lynch scum, you're right.
Chemist didn't look like he was making any genuine reads, i was more sure when his reads continued to look that way, and i was unsure previously because his tone was pretty towny. and i explained where i fucked up with Farkran and not wanting to be wrong after trying to engage so much.
Posted: Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:15 pm
by Nachomamma8
You played a fantastic scum game here but there is absolutely no way to weasel out of the fact that you derailed the wagon from scum who you spent an entire game day attacking and the only scumread you spent significant time pursuing to lynch a town lurker, and that action saved the scum from losing.
Like very rarely in mafia can anyone ever say "fuck anything else you've ever done because this action is just that scummy", but if one exists, we're looking at it now.
Posted: Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:18 pm
by popsofctown
(expired on 2020-03-13 23:58:00)
Posted: Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:19 pm
by Nachomamma8
In post 2427, Hectic wrote:Why does it choose to flip it's scumread on Farkran to save him the previous day, for then to only give up this chance the next?
Chara had to save Farkran the previous day. Chara bussed Farkran when it did in order to preserve some sort of towncred especially since Farkran was very likely dead immediately after I was mislynched anyways and a scenario when it's Chara vs you/Suji/Amrun after saving its scum partner two days in a row is a very very bad one.
Posted: Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:22 pm
by Nachomamma8
In post 2426, Chara wrote:basically i was really confident in scum Farkran, i didn't like anything he was doing, i hated both his takes and his attitude, and i was getting really frustrated about it.
And going from this to "I will hurt Chemist and only Chemist" is what makes the flip so unbelievable, especially since Chara still had Farkran as scum #2.
If Chara expressed a preference for Chemist and was wrong, whatever - town get egg on their faces all the time. But Chara drew a line in the Sand because if it didn't, it would have lost.
In post 2426, Chara wrote:basically i was really confident in scum Farkran, i didn't like anything he was doing, i hated both his takes and his attitude, and i was getting really frustrated about it.
And going from this to "I will hurt Chemist and only Chemist" is what makes the flip so unbelievable, especially since Chara still had Farkran as scum #2.
If Chara expressed a preference for Chemist and was wrong, whatever - town get egg on their faces all the time. But Chara drew a line in the Sand because if it didn't, it would have lost.
Why do you think so?
Why do you
not
think Chara would lose if it continued the bus on Farkran there into a lynch? It could ride out it's townreads + towncred for bussing Farkran the next few days, and Misty likely gets lynched the next day.
If Chara bussed Farkran Day 3, then we would spare anyone on Day 4. If we spared town, Chara would be forced to suicide. If we spared Chara, then we'd know there was confirmed scum in you/Chara and we'd have 2 lynches and a bullet to get there.
Posted: Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:32 pm
by Chara
if Farkran and i were a team, it would have been autoloss. a scum lynch on day 3 was autowin.
so Nacho's saying i didn't lynch Farkran because i had to. which is a fair argument i don't really have a way to rebuttal. it's true i didn't hit scum when it would have been a win. i thought Chemist had the best chance of being that scum given everything which is why i didn't want to hurt anywhere else if i did have to, but that ended up being the wrong choice.
which i don't regret so much until now if it means i get MLed here into a loss for it.
If Chara bussed Farkran Day 3, then we would spare anyone on Day 4. If we spared town, Chara would be forced to suicide. If we spared Chara, then we'd know there was confirmed scum in you/Chara and we'd have 2 lynches and a bullet to get there.
Do you think a SPARE would've happened on Day 4? Bingle (from day 3), you, Amrun were all very pro-FIGHT. Chara could decide to not push SPARING the next day for whatever reasons it could think of.
Posted: Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:38 pm
by Nachomamma8
Bingle brought up that it would be an auto-win fairly early in the day - all of us would be comfortable sparing when we knew that it would lead to an autowin.
Posted: Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:39 pm
by Nachomamma8
Or, in clearer terms. This is Bingle's Day 3 post:
In post 1707, Bingle wrote:It occurred to me that if we lynch scum today we autowin.
In post 1708, Bingle wrote:I suppose I should explain. We lynch scum and spare literally anyone tomorrow: either no scum were spared and the game is over because scum shoot themselves or the remaining scum is in Hectic/Tomorrow spare.
Potential teams for eight unflipped players is kind of a lot of ground to cover, but I think we can rule out a significant number of teams.
If we lynched scum on Day 3 and scum kill a townie, then we have 5 alive and 2 spared to start Day 4. If we spare Day 4, a New Home is reached and this happens:
In post 1, popsofctown wrote:3 players spared: The mafia immediately removes two players from the game without flipping them and must choose a mafiosi if no mafia was spared.
This means that if the third person we spared was town, then mafia must suicide (since there's only one mafia remaining) and kill themselves.
If the third person we spared was mafia, then mafia gets two kills, but we know that scum is in the spared group since the game would be over otherwise.
That means we're looking at this, worst case scenario after the incorrect spare + 2 kills:
Suji, Hectic, Chara, Chemist, Bingle
Chemist & Bingle are both confirmed town since if they were scum mafia would have been forced to suicide. Suji is confirmed town because friendly neighbor.
So we lynch through you & Chara and win 100% of the time.
Posted: Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:16 pm
by Nachomamma8
Ok. I can't take refreshing this and looking at my latest post any longer so I'm going to get ready for bed since I have to wake up in like 6 hours; let me know if there's anything that you'd like clarified or any of my past you want to talk about before then.
Posted: Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:19 pm
by Hectic
successful in making me reconsider. He raises decent points and is dangerously convincing. Overall, I'm still likely to hammer Nacho though after rereading through each of their ISOs. Chara is been so natural and clean this game, and Nacho's flip on Farkran from town>scum came with a lot less reasoning or evident natural though than Chara's did:
I'll be flying out shortly which means that I'll spend my time catching up some time tomorrow - I see that I don't have a whole lot of catching up to do. I still don't think Hectic was scum and I can't see two scum in Amrun/Chara/Bingle so here we are!
Additionally, I read over the reasons Replica/Amrun had for townreading it, and they are very solid.
Pedit: Yes, could you explain why you couldn't see two scum in those 3? What happened to your Farkan towncase?
Posted: Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:27 pm
by Nachomamma8
In post 2441, Hectic wrote:Overall, I'm still likely to hammer Nacho though after rereading through each of their ISOs.
That is ridiculous.
Do you really believe that Chara, as town, spent an entire game day attacking Farkran before deciding that it would hurt Chemist and ONLY Chemist despite the two scumreads being extraordinarily close to each other and this happening on the one day that scum needed to lynch town or they would instantly lose?
Or, that on that same day where scum needed to lynch town or they lost that Farkran, the active scumpartner, bussed Nacho, the inactive scum partner until that wagon didn't gain any traction and then voted himself?
Because if you do then you don't understand how pivotal that moment was and you should be asking more questions about it. That is the smoking gun. Guns don't get smokier than that gun is.
Posted: Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:28 pm
by Hectic
In post 2347, Amrun wrote:Hectic has disappointed me by showing an abysmally low level of reconsideration during this stage of the game.
Posted: Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:31 pm
by Nachomamma8
In post 2441, Hectic wrote:Nacho's flip on Farkran from town>scum came with a lot less reasoning or evident natural though than Chara's did:
Remember that my top scumread for a long time was Chemist - going from town --> scum when the PoE shrunk and I was dealing with townreads vs conflicted leaning townread makes sense. Going from Chara's expressed reads on Farkran/Chemist to "the only hurt vote I will make unless I absolutely have to vote elsewhere is Chemist but I think Chemist/Farkran is obviously the team" does not unless Chara is scum saving the team from a loss.
In post 2441, Hectic wrote:Overall, I'm still likely to hammer Nacho though after rereading through each of their ISOs.
That is ridiculous.
Do you really believe that Chara, as town, spent an entire game day attacking Farkran before deciding that it would hurt Chemist and ONLY Chemist despite the two scumreads being extraordinarily close to each other and this happening on the one day that scum needed to lynch town or they would instantly lose?
Or, that on that same day where scum needed to lynch town or they lost that Farkran, the active scumpartner, bussed Nacho, the inactive scum partner until that wagon didn't gain any traction and then voted himself?
Because if you do then you don't understand how pivotal that moment was and you should be asking more questions about it. That is the smoking gun. Guns don't get smokier than that gun is.
Chara, please get in here and change my mind on this. Nacho is very convincing.
Posted: Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:34 pm
by Nachomamma8
In post 2441, Hectic wrote:Additionally, I read over the reasons Replica/Amrun had for townreading it, and they are very solid.
Name 1 reason to townread Chara that is firmer than "Chara derailed a scum wagon in a situation where it would have won the game for scum in order to lynch town, despite scumreading that scum the day before".
Trust me, I understand the feeling of "Chara is genuine and natural - scumhunting openly, just feels right" - it's what led me to a point where I came into LyLo and genuinely wanted to give up for a second. But those feelings don't outweigh the Chemist vote.
Posted: Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:38 pm
by Nachomamma8
In post 2441, Hectic wrote:Pedit: Yes, could you explain why you couldn't see two scum in those 3? What happened to your Farkan towncase?
I couldn't see two scum in those three because Amrun/Chara had been firm townreads for the entire game (Chara more than Amrun, as I mentioned before) + Amrun/Bingle wasn't a thing meaning if there was 2 scum in those 3 Chara had to be one of them.
I felt weirder about Farkran at the end of the day than when I made the case when he kept accusing me of posturing to turn against him, which felt like he was throwing mud since I almost certainly had to be a needed mislynch in order for him to get the win. Chemist flipping town took away someone who I had considered to be scum/in the PoE for most of the game so getting that was a rude awakening that one of my townreads was wrong and being wrong on Farkran made the most sense to me.
In post 2441, Hectic wrote:Overall, I'm still likely to hammer Nacho though after rereading through each of their ISOs.
That is ridiculous.
Do you really believe that Chara, as town, spent an entire game day attacking Farkran before deciding that it would hurt Chemist and ONLY Chemist despite the two scumreads being extraordinarily close to each other and this happening on the one day that scum needed to lynch town or they would instantly lose?
Or, that on that same day where scum needed to lynch town or they lost that Farkran, the active scumpartner, bussed Nacho, the inactive scum partner until that wagon didn't gain any traction and then voted himself?
Because if you do then you don't understand how pivotal that moment was and you should be asking more questions about it. That is the smoking gun. Guns don't get smokier than that gun is.
Chara, please get in here and change my mind on this. Nacho is very convincing.
i don't have anything good to say, i know it looks terrible. i wanted to spare but if we did have to lynch, i wanted to lynch the scum for the win. i wasn't happy with any of the options really but Chemist seemed the choice that made the most sense with the players i thought scum was in, while with Farkran i kept coming up with reasons for him to be town. Farkran and Nacho took some really weird actions this game and i really doubt all of them were just done for towncred, i'm sure they all made sense at the time, such as Farkran bussing Nacho when they were both in a bad position on day 3, because it's possible that seemed like the only option.
Nacho's focusing on the fact i would
only
vote Chemist, which i did say, but it was because i wanted to vote Replica, and if i had to i made the only hurt vote i was okay with if sparing wasn't happening. i really didn't expect that there wouldn't be further discussion on the matter or realize that i had locked down other options entirely.
Posted: Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:51 pm
by Hectic
In post 2446, Nachomamma8 wrote:Name 1 reason to townread Chara that is firmer than "Chara derailed a scum wagon in a situation where it would have won the game for scum in order to lynch town, despite scumreading that scum the day before".
Town change their minds and progress on reads though. 2426 and it's earlier explanations felt genuine to me.
Why is what Chara did scummier than you townreading and towncasing Farkran and not FIGHTing him at all, until you did because of PoE? I see both flips as equally scummy.
