Mafiascum.net

don't have thoughts on unwnd right now

"Fateful Duel"

Event Rules

---

Decision 3.0.5

unwnd [3]:

Gamma Emerald, Dwlee99, Saber

Ydrasse [2]:

petapan, Ydrasse

petapan [2]:

Taly, Toogeloo

Not Voting [7]:

ulyana, SirCakez, Gypyx, Dunnstral, skitter30, Infinity 324, unwnd

With 14 contestants remaining, it takes 8 votes to nominate a duelist.
The contestant with the second-most votes at majority or deadline will also be nominated. Plurality and seniority are in effect for both nominations.

The deadline for this decision is in:

(expired on 2021-10-19 17:07:18)

[/mech]

Now playing..

♫

Tia - Deal with the devil

♫
                        

▶ ❚❚ ────●──────────────────────────  0:41 / 4:44

                       

In post 1748, Morning Tweet wrote:

                          

      "Off With Your Head!"      

      IT'S SABOTAGE!      

PookyTheMagicalBear was executed, apparently by mistake. Galron is alive and well.
This is no matter. These sorts of mistakes happen all the time in show business.. don't you know?
The executioner must select a new player to execute. It cannot be the same player as their first selection.
We're here to entertain, and predictability is awful for ratings.
The event will proceed as normal afterwards.

I noted this early on and I think these type of plays were simply a matter of

Pooky is more threatening and we can limbait Galron later. I guess that would make my wagon a bit curious but I still don't feel like digging into it.

I really want to start forming a decent town list before I start looking in the weeds. I have my Saber/Cakez thought but everywhere else seems incomplete.

I changed my mind on a few things on reread

But of course nobody is here to care

Trashing my Dunn read.

I end up doing this a lot and I'm prone to give him early passes by assuming intent. The fact of the matter is though that actually reading the game I just think Dunn's behavior is tepid. Yes, that's what Dunn does. He's not a very in-your-face player but there's a lot of stuff from him that just meshes together. I don't think Dunn is afraid to be bold. I don't think Dunn chooses to be unreadable when he's green. I think he leans onto that 'is he thinking about something' type of deal more when he's red. This is not a complete 180 it's more like my reasons to townread Dunn were all assumption and tone, but contextually I can't really see where he fits.

I'm just looking for an indication of what he wants. Even the most tepid version of Dunnstral has something I can affix him with. The only thing I could gather is that he really didn't like Ceph. OK. Ceph is dead now and Dunn is still fiddling with the inbetween and I'm not sure what happens next.

That being said my "Saber/Dunn aren't aligned" idea is still floating in my head. Making associative takes and then buying into what you see can be really dangerous. I'm not afraid to make mistakes I just don't want to lose sense of reality. There's nothing besides a complete fucking literal guess with that. I get that's what you do especially without a proper flip but I digress.

Dunn, what's your read on Ydra? You two were partners in RPG so maybe you'd have an idea of what to look for?

My two reads I've talked about at the hypothetical bottom are still present just not associative. Cakez is individually scummy and I think Saber pinged the shit out of me.

My reread did..not give me any leanings and I feel an actual headache coming on when I think about how I kicked Dunn of the top of my list because I really really really really really want to form some trust and I've probably repeated that 3 times now but it is absolutely crucial to me.

I haven't been paying attention to Ydra this game.

So I started skimming and I lean town, and here's why:

I think Ydrasse as mafia will start the game off strong but over time lose drive, and then you realize their posting is just fluffy but not filled with very hard analysis

In this game I don't see the falling off or the fluffy

In post 2114, Taly wrote:I'm mindmelding strongly with

Saber

. I think it's best I lean in and refrain from suspicion here. I did notice that she hasn't touched my recent posts on her.

I think I'd prefer

peta

over

Dunn

at the moment. I did not like his interaction with

Galron

at all.

I don't believe Pooky's prodding towards me end of day was any real suspicion, I read it as he thought I was a contestant and would be sad if I was a stagehand.

In post 2120, Taly wrote:

In post 2112, Saber wrote:Despite my qualms, the amount of effort and being top poster by a long shot is quite unlikely to come from a stagehand, though. Contestants dominate that statistic a lot. I may just dislike his erratic playstyle.

Do you find a benefit of the doubt with slots like

Dunn/Peta/Galron

?

Not sure what you mean, can you rephrase the question?

2127 - Oozes contestants from Taly, I don't see a stagehand faking a winding complex thought process like this.
2138 - That's a good point I think.

In post 2139, petapan wrote:

In post 2109, Saber wrote:I'm not interested in voting for Ydrasse or Gypyx. I don't like Infinity voting for Gypyx on the basis Gamma contestant means Prism more likely to be a stagehand.

Infinity, you've made this assumption twice now that the people pushing Gamma the most are more likely to be a stagehand now that Gamma is probably a contestant - first with me, and now with Prism. The problem with that is the fact stagehands knew how the chair in the first phase would work, and that it comes with a heavy risk of the chaired person simply OMGUS executing their pusher.

I'm sure stagehand Prism would have some more reservations of pushing Gamma so aggressively had she considered this factor, which I'm sure she would've.

you say you don't like it but do you think it makes infinity scummy

Yeah, it's stage 1 type thinking which I think is more likely to come from a stagehand, we don't know Gamma's alignment for one to confidently base reads off of him, but assuming Infinity is a stagehand, it's not a bad route for her to pursue other votes on Gamma's pushers if they're contestants, and she knows Gamma is a contestant.

Back later today.

In post 2436, Saber wrote:2127 - Oozes contestants from Taly, I don't see a stagehand faking a winding complex thought process like this.
2138 - That's a good point I think.

In post 2139, petapan wrote:

In post 2109, Saber wrote:I'm not interested in voting for Ydrasse or Gypyx. I don't like Infinity voting for Gypyx on the basis Gamma contestant means Prism more likely to be a stagehand.

Infinity, you've made this assumption twice now that the people pushing Gamma the most are more likely to be a stagehand now that Gamma is probably a contestant - first with me, and now with Prism. The problem with that is the fact stagehands knew how the chair in the first phase would work, and that it comes with a heavy risk of the chaired person simply OMGUS executing their pusher.

I'm sure stagehand Prism would have some more reservations of pushing Gamma so aggressively had she considered this factor, which I'm sure she would've.

you say you don't like it but do you think it makes infinity scummy

Yeah, it's stage 1 type thinking which I think is more likely to come from a stagehand, we don't know Gamma's alignment for one to confidently base reads off of him, but assuming Infinity is a stagehand, it's not a bad route for her to pursue other votes on Gamma's pushers if they're contestants, and she knows Gamma is a contestant.

meh i don't think infinity tries to fos gypyx the way she has as scum

feels like legitimate suspicion

is there that big of a difference between gamma being 90+% to be town and 100% that it should affect how i approach my reads

reread the last 40ish posts from infinity's iso as a check and think she's fine. i don't find it, like, whelmingly towny and she's maybe faded a bit in terms of actively doing things but nothing particularly looks bad in there.


similarly took a look at saber because she was a blind spot for me and wanted to check that. posting styl is very formal which i'm always going to struggle with, on the one had she looks the part of a townie and on the other i just always find posts that are more carefully constructed to be suspicious. has mostly focused attention on the popular targets in gamma and galron but her reasons there have made sense they haven't been, like, scummy pushing necessarily. maybe a bit narrow focused but like i said earlier, looks the part. probably wouldn't be able to read without flips, wouldn't want to flip today

reread dwlee, posts feel hollow, had a few things that i didn't really like, don't get a strong sense of a believable, like, process there, thought the read on infinity was not something scum would push in such a mediocre way but it's like, what are they doing here? i don't really get it. downgrade to scumlean, would fade

cakez's early game is bad but i think he gets better later. there is some stuff from him i think is maybe towny that i don't feel like going into. i don't think the reasons for suspecting him (lack of nuance, being behind on the game) are really alignment indicative. do want to see more from him but wouldn't really fade at this point in time

Nobody is scumreading Sircakez for being behind on the game

In post 2440, Infinity 324 wrote:is there that big of a difference between gamma being 90+% to be town and 100% that it should affect how i approach my reads

Depends, what's a baseline contestant percentage for you?

If you are a contestant, it's very dangerous game to start assuming certain players are contestants and then base reads off of them, it's the same reason why pre-flip associative reads are often as good as rolling a dice for your reads.

In post 2442, petapan wrote:reread dwlee, posts feel hollow, had a few things that i didn't really like, don't get a strong sense of a believable, like, process there, thought the read on infinity was not something scum would push in such a mediocre way but it's like, what are they doing here? i don't really get it. downgrade to scumlean, would fade

Bad take

In post 2444, Dunnstral wrote:Nobody is scumreading Sircakez for being behind on the game

i feel like that was part of the point unwnd was making

but then i remember that post about prism on day 1 again and it's uuuugh

i guess i wouldn't shield him if he were getting wagoned

I still think the unwnd/Galron slot is a stagehand.

In post 2445, Saber wrote:

In post 2440, Infinity 324 wrote:is there that big of a difference between gamma being 90+% to be town and 100% that it should affect how i approach my reads

Depends, what's a baseline contestant percentage for you?

If you are a contestant, it's very dangerous game to start assuming certain players are contestants and then base reads off of them, it's the same reason why pre-flip associative reads are often as good as rolling a dice for your reads.

baseline contestant percentage is 9/13 or 69%

pre-flip associatives based on srs suck if they're based on strong TRs they're fine imo