White Flag - TM2020

Donempire · Post Post #2475 (ISO) » Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:51 am

Oh okay, thought it was l1. I also deleted the unvote then forgot to retype it

UNVOTE:

Gobble/cheeky doesnt make sense. Gobbles posts are awful but i must be wrong somewhere

CheekyTeeky · Post Post #2476 (ISO) » Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:10 am

That's actually a good scumread Dong. That's the same reason I suspect Dann/Auro.

CheekyTeeky · Post Post #2477 (ISO) » Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:23 am

Like Day 1 was a lot of sorting each other for them, which turned into them hard townreading each other to the point that Dann strong arms the early wagon off of Auro. They were both very sloppy around the NSG wagon and as I said when Dunn diverted the FF wagon "I'm mad at Dunn but Dann looks worse" merely because he seemed too easily swayed by Dunn at that point. I thought Auro was town for not hammering FF when he had the chance but looking back at the D2 discussion around how my team thought the bus was premeditated, I think Dunn and Auro's reaction say that they had expected NSG to be lynched day 2 so EOD1 can be explained as them scrambling because they hadn't expected her lynch D1.

I also think Auro was unlikely to hammer town after the early suspicion on him early in the game. Day 2 felt like they were pushing in opposite directions, Auro on gobbles and Dann on Espy because they needed 4 mislynches to lose and I get the feeling of being corralled in from both sides. Day 2 I talked about one of the effort posters being scum and today I've talked about what I think that means for people's alignments.

I'm fine lynching anyone they push because I think it only makes a stronger case against them if they're wrong or they get NK'd and it's one more team in the dust. Gobbles is the optimal lynch from my POV because I can also see a gobbles/BB team.

CheekyTeeky · Post Post #2478 (ISO) » Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:27 am

I challenge anyone to multi-iso Dann/Auro and tell me that those initial interactions are natural.

CheekyTeeky · Post Post #2479 (ISO) » Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:28 am

Even though kitty was always the NK she saw it early on too.

BBmolla · Post Post #2480 (ISO) » Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:37 am

Yes I’m bussing Dong come back

BBmolla · Post Post #2481 (ISO) » Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:37 am

I’m tired of Gobbles/Mills theories let’s end them please

BBmolla · Post Post #2482 (ISO) » Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:37 am

Fucking aitocyrecct

Auro · Post Post #2483 (ISO) » Thu Jan 30, 2020 12:51 pm

In post 2471, BBmolla wrote:If you’re right we win

If you’re wrong you get no say in tomorrow’s lynch Auro

Absolutely fine, I'll just sheep whoever.
And no Gob quicklynches - I began to lose my Esp scumread towards the end of D2, I don't want a repeat of that.

Auro · Post Post #2484 (ISO) » Thu Jan 30, 2020 12:56 pm

In post 1405, Auro wrote:Cheeky, I'm beginning to think NSG is a fine lynch at this point. I've sortaaaa lost heart in an FF lynch. Idk.

Cheeky, I said this after the FF exchanges.
At this point, as scum I'd know NSG is scum, and I know that's the lynch for D1. If I didn't want NSG lynched, I could've made a lot more noise if I didn't want to hammer town myself. If I wanted to bus NSG at the last moment, I would've done it around this point.

Instead, I just say I "think" NSG is a fine lynch, and don't vote. Don't you think I would've had a vote in play for the credit? What do I gain by hinting to you to vote, instead of voting her myself?

Auro · Post Post #2485 (ISO) » Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:01 pm

In post 2478, CheekyTeeky wrote:I challenge anyone to multi-iso Dann/Auro and tell me that those initial interactions are natural.

Why don't you think prior experience plays a factor here?

CheekyTeeky · Post Post #2486 (ISO) » Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:48 pm

In post 2484, Auro wrote:Don't you think I would've had a vote in play for the credit? What do I gain by hinting to you to vote, instead of voting her myself?

Your reasoning makes sense if NSG was a flash with no competition but there was me pushing FF and likely to hammer and then there was a flash BB wagon that I'm not sure you were around to hammer for. I had given intent twice and I think you were posturing around his wagon with all the team talk stuff. I don't think you would actually believe that after the whole day of me tunneling him that your nudge would make a difference.

Having both scum on a scum lynch would look terrible especially with no counter at the final vote count so it makes sense that one is on and one is off to keep distance. I also think that it lines up with you both pushing in different directions rather than working together to corral town into doing your bidding whilst splitting the suspicion so one of you doesn't look too scummy.

CheekyTeeky · Post Post #2487 (ISO) » Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:50 pm

In post 2485, Auro wrote:
In post 2478, CheekyTeeky wrote:I challenge anyone to multi-iso Dann/Auro and tell me that those initial interactions are natural.
Why don't you think prior experience plays a factor here?

Please explain. I think it would be really insightful to see your read progression on Dann and how that's evolved over the game. I find it bizarre that you both so strongly townread each other yet don't really together on solving the game aside from the early D1 posturing.

CheekyTeeky · Post Post #2488 (ISO) » Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:58 pm

Of all the possible duos I think Dann/Auro has the most obvious agenda. The Espeon lynch was evidence of an optimal push for their team. If gobbles is scum cool but I just can't see how he gets away with how he's playing as scum.

Auro · Post Post #2489 (ISO) » Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:12 pm

In post 491, Auro wrote:Dann: I want to call his play... political, but I have some reasons to believe he's town, but he's a great scum player as well, argh~ I'll stick to town for now

I don't think I "strongly townread" Dann D1? He was a sane voice against the stupid wagon on me, and there was some other town behavior (like TW's message) that kept him at a tier-2 townread. My townread was stronger post D1, from his NSG push.

Experience should explain his lack of D1 scumread on me; the worst (who played with me much more iirc) being in his team explains the townread.

If Dann+Auro was the scumteam, the game would be in auto-pilot for us. I'd let you "bulldoze" whoever and mildly lurk out while taking potshots at the scummy looking shots. Why would it matter which one of Hop/Dong/Gob was being wagoned? If no one's posting, all the better for scum!AuroDann.

Auro · Post Post #2490 (ISO) » Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:25 pm

In post 2486, CheekyTeeky wrote:Your reasoning makes sense if NSG was a flash with no competition but there was me pushing FF and likely to hammer and then there was a flash BB wagon that I'm not sure you were around to hammer for. I had given intent twice and I think you were posturing around his wagon with all the team talk stuff. I don't think you would actually believe that after the whole day of me tunneling him that your nudge would make a difference.

The flash BB wagon doesn't matter, my nudge was before that.

And why not? What could I say in that position that you believe I believe would make a difference? I did think we were working together then. I didn't say it in a vacuum. Besides, if my bluff didn't work, there's no way I'd predict someone else (like Molla) would be wagoned - people were warming up to the idea of lynching NSG by then anyway.

ISO · Post Post #2491 (ISO) » Thu Jan 30, 2020 3:06 pm

Vote Count

Dongempire - 2

(gobbledygook, Dannflor)

goobledygook - 2

(Cephrir, BBMolla)

FormerFish - 1

(Auro)

Not Voting - 4

(CheekyTeeky, Dongempire, Formerfish, Hopkirk)

Activity Check - Prodding gobbledygook

Deadline: (expired on 2020-02-10 23:00:00)

With 9 Alive, it takes 5 to Lynch

Auro · Post Post #2492 (ISO) » Thu Jan 30, 2020 3:24 pm

Uh
VOTE: Gobble

CheekyTeeky · Post Post #2493 (ISO) » Thu Jan 30, 2020 4:33 pm

Auro can you talk to me about Dann being town in this game. Like what are you seeing that never makes him scum here?

CheekyTeeky · Post Post #2494 (ISO) » Thu Jan 30, 2020 4:40 pm

I'm fine not lynching either of you today and would prefer hop/FF/gobble lunches for PoE purposes. Unless I'm like close to certain Dann is town I think you all need to flip that tomorrow. So if gobbles is town flip Dann and if dann is town flip FF. Assuming NKs don't give you anything super incriminating. The only potential team that leaves unclipped are a combo of dong/bb/cephrir which I think is probably fine because these slots are unlikely svs imo based on VCA.

CheekyTeeky · Post Post #2495 (ISO) » Thu Jan 30, 2020 4:44 pm

I'll show my working when I get time.

ISO · Post Post #2496 (ISO) » Thu Jan 30, 2020 6:58 pm

I'll just warn you now that I'm not going to care about vca and probably will not read any posts about it because they just make me angry

ISO · Post Post #2497 (ISO) » Thu Jan 30, 2020 6:59 pm

Or I guess I could snark about it for a couple pages to get engaged

CheekyTeeky · Post Post #2498 (ISO) » Thu Jan 30, 2020 7:14 pm

Whatever helps.

Dannflor · Post Post #2499 (ISO) » Thu Jan 30, 2020 7:41 pm

Eddie has a message for you Cheeky:

Do you believe Dann and our team would be taking a leadership role as either alignment? If so, what is this garbage push even backed by? If not, then let me entertain your Auro/Dann world for a bit. You believe they openly create strong associations and then openly bus their third partner Day 1? Remember the small little fact that Dann was the momentum swing to kill NSG?

And now, a message for you from me:

Hi, Cheeky. Can you elaborate on what exactly you're scum reading me for? Or if you even are? I'm unclear as to where exactly the suspicion comes from. You don't like me pushing [Dong, Hopkirk]. Lately, I've been considering [Dong, Gobble] as the best two lynches. Do you have strong reasons to believe these slots are town that I should be seeing?

I am town. I honestly feel that I am quite obviously town. I'm a bit more empathetic than Eddie when it comes to general *paranoia* solves. We all fall into them, I sure do and almost have this game. So I'm not quite as confused or upset as I think EC is, but I'm still a little frustrated and disappointed. This stuff has caused me to recheck my town read on you a few times, my pretty much lock town read on you after Pops posted her wall. My team was throwing around an FF/Cheeky team but... I don't really subscribe to that theory. I can't really see you as scum. But I think you are good enough player you should be able to read me correctly.

You say "unless you're like close to certain " I'm town that I should be flipped. Okay. That's fine. Only I feel I've exceeded the point this game where you can as certain as it's possible to get in a mafia game. I think it's possible for you to get there now. So, tell me why you're scum reading me. Engage with me in real time. Engage with Eddie more. What do you need to see from me?

I talk a lot about how my scum game is overrated. And it is, but I also like to think I'm a smart player. At the very least, you have to admit I have a team of very smart people behind me. So even if my surface level scum game is not that great in my opinion, I think I would avoid doing some of the REALLY AVOIDABLE WEIRD AF stuff that I've done this game from a scum perspective.

FOR EXAMPLE, if I am partners with NSG why the fuck does this happen:

Spoiler: absolute indecisive fuckery I am embarrassed ever happened

Like do you look at that and actually think I had the information of what anyone's alignment was? Really?

"I faked it to look too wolfy to be an actual wolf"

"I did it because there was always a chance NSG wouldn't die"

"I wanted to mess up VCs"

but like none of those actually explain what happened. I went back on NSG several times while there was a good chance she wouldn't have died. Like, can you really look at my EoD 1 posting and tell me you think I knew what anyone was going to flip? Really? And that I did all that AFTER hard associating with Auro my hypothetical scum bud? There are so many better gameplans for me to stick with as scum there. I could hard bus NSG. I could hard go in on FF. Even if I wouldn't have been good enough to, MY TEAM CERTAINLY WOULD HAVE.

In other ways too, I'm just town by meta. I'll keep the self meta case short because *vomit* but like.... I don't top post as scum. I'm never this level of engaged as scum. I don't think I'm capable of writing as quality a wall that I wrote in my reads list here as scum (you can check AvP for comparisons, my walls are much lower quality). I don't really think Eddie cares as much about this game and goes the effort to write as many posts/wall as he has.

I'm just town Cheeky. I understand paranoia, but snap yourself out of it if that's all it is. What are your valid concerns about me?

I think you're worried the game is not as easy as it looks. Honestly? I'm telling you that it is. Cephrir isn't scum. He's probably my most confident town read. You are not scum. Auro is not scum—I've gone over this read a lot because it would be awful if I was wrong—and he's just town. I'm not scum. FF is probably town. BBmolla I think is town more often than not. Hopkirk could easily be town. I don't really know that Dong/Gobble is the exact team (I don't think Gobble coming into the day hard pushing Dong discounts that as a team at all), but I'm fairly confident that one of these at least is scum. Maybe one of them is partners with BB or FF or Hopkirk, idk. But I still feel very confident in my town reads after everything. I think it really is just that easy!

Spoiler: flash wagon

btw here's the flash wagon onto BB

I don't think it's all that likely this was all town. If you can come around to seeing that I'm town, and you town read Ceph/FF, then that's extra points for Dong!scum. That's assuming BB is town, of course, which might not necessarily be true. I'm open to debate on that slot. But that's something I keep coming back to as a reason for Dong over Gobble slightly. And then I feel if BB is scum it's probably with Gobble so he'd be my second choice anyway as my lower read.

I dunno. Talk to me. This game is very solvable today but us mislynching today followed by me getting mislynched probably loses the game. So let's hash this out