Mini 193: Decimafia - Game Over

[Fuldu]

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Not Voting:
Aelyn
Assasin
Astronaut
EnterYourNameHere
mathcam
NanookTheWolf
Quailman
Zanath Brast

With 46 alive, 24 votes will lynch or

16

at deadline.

[Zanath Brast]

We have come to a general agreement that there are probably only two badguys left,

maybe

three. With only eight survivors, at least 1/4 of which are evil, we can afford only one mistake, which means we're technically close to an endgame. Do we want our cop to come out now and force the mafia to play the "find the doc to kill the cop" game? Or should we risk it and wait one or two more nights, hoping that the cop can dig up some more information?

[Aelyn]

We have come to a general agreement that there are probably only two badguys left,

maybe

three. With only eight survivors, at least 1/4 of which are evil, we can afford only one mistake, which means we're technically close to an endgame. Do we want our cop to come out now and force the mafia to play the "find the doc to kill the cop" game? Or should we risk it and wait one or two more nights, hoping that the cop can dig up some more information?

I vote we wait.

Firstly, we don't even know for sure whether there is a doc in this game. It could be suicidal for the cop to come out now.

Secondly, we have no guarantee that the cop is actually sane. And if he (or she) isn't, we've basically screwed ourselves over somewhat.

And thirdly... I think it's always a bad idea, barring an extreme metagame ploy, for the cop to come out until he's found scum or there's some other important reason (like he's just been fingered by a scum who faked cop)

I agree that of the eight remaining players, chances are that two of them are scum, and as a result we do need to be careful. After all, we miss tonight, wake up with six tomorrow. We miss tomorrow, and it's possible we've lost there and then. However, I think that it's quite likely that the cop will be able to come forward with helpful information tomorrow, and if he does we should be in a strong position.

[mathcam]

I agree on not having the cop come out yet.

If I were to vote for someone right now, it would either be Quailman or Zanath Brast: Quailman for the octothorp thing...not that it's impossible (or even unlikely) that he knew the name of the symbol, but it seems like he went out of his way to throw it in. Why not just "the cult"? Maybe the answer is that he recently saw the phrase "Octothorp cult" in his role PM.

I'm not sure why Zanath Brash is setting off my scumometer, but he is. And I think Nanook's coming in third.

Cam

[Quailman]

One: That would mean there are three cult members?

Two: It's been used in puzzles on the Grey Labyrinth, though not in a while. That's where I learned it.

Three: Why on Earth would I mention the name of the cult in my first post if it had not appeared in the death scene? No one is that ignorant. Not even [insert name of the person you think is the biggest idiot here].

Zanath Brast gets my FOS for his first day suggestion that the cop come out.

[Zanath Brast]

Well, granted it's certainly risky, but with a game this small, I think having the cop come out could have been a risk we may want to take. Assuring that we keep our cop alive could greatly enhance our chances of survival, especially now that the cult is probably dead. Although, I honestly hadn't thought of the no-doc or insane cop possibilities. Those

would

screw us over. I had just assumed that in a game this small, the cop and doc would come in pairs, and/or that the cop would be sane, since there's probably only one.

And you know, I'm actually quite relieved that I'm not the only one who had to look up what an Octothorp is.

UnFoS: NanookTheWolf

FoS: Quailman

I thought about posting that earlier, but I didn't want to be the n00b here.

[Quailman]

I refer you to points one through three of the post before yours.

Oh, and since I didn't bold it in that post:

unFOS: Nanook; FOS: Zanath

You know, when I used the term, I had a feeling scum would bring attention to it, but there can't be that many scum in a game of ten.

[Zanath Brast]

Three cult members, although less probable, certainly isn't dismissable. I had suggested earlier that the game started with one cult member. The conversion was successful, but one was killed by mafia and the other by a good-aligned killing role (trust me, I've seen many games where vigs decide to kill on Night 1).

Well, what if there were two cult members to start? That would account for a third cult member, if the conversion was successful and the other two were killed as described before. Again, I'm not suggesting that this is a probable scenario. I'm merely pointing out that the situation isn't impossible, and that my FoS isn't unjustified.

And if you knew the term Octothorp would bring suspicion, why did you even use it?

[Quailman]

To flush out scum.

[Zanath Brast]

And the thought that you might bring more suspicion to yourself rather than deduce who is scum didn't cross your mind? You had to have realized that innocents as well as scum would find that remark suspicious.

[Astronaut]

I'm not quite comfortable with Quailman putting a name on the cult "to flush out scum", but Zanath Brast is rubbing me all the wrong ways. In post #5 he wonders if we should all claim numbers, then in #26 he suggests the cop comes out (and despite protests, repeats this in #30). And through it all, he keeps trying to outguess the mod. I doubt this is very helpful, and I'm all the more confused by it.

That's enough for me to put an

FOS: Zanath Brast

[Zanath Brast]

I wouldn't call post #30 a "repeat" so much as a justification of my suggestion. The way I see it, two badguys are dead, and we've got them on the run. I was merely thinking that taking a few risks would be worth it to put an end to the mafia and any remaining cult members (if any) quickly. What can I say? I like risks, and I think this one would favor the town. Don't get me wrong; I'm not continuing along with this argument. I agree now that the cop should remain hidden until at least tomorrow, if not later (depending on the following days and nights).

And outguess the mod? Where did that come from? I'm just trying to make suggestions about scenarios of what could happen last night. We can't fix our minds on one possibility, because there's no way for any single person to know for a fact what happened. We have to remain flexible about our beliefs, especially when the results of today's lynch and tonight's actions come out.

[mathcam]

Okay, not that I'm proclaiming with any confidence that the active players

aren't

scum, but I'm right now leaning toward the lurkers as being more scummy. Though they would likely do this as scum too, the four or 5 active players seem to be honestly deciding what the right moves are for the town.

So I'll

FOS: Assassin, Nanook, and EYNH

.

Cam

[NanookTheWolf]

Anyways, on another note I'm gone for the weekend .. see ya guys monday

Ok, I'm a day late .. I'll be back later this evening to post something with 'substance' if you'd like.

[Quailman]

Since we're not voting yet:

unofficial FOS count

Quailman - 2 - EnterYourNameHere, Zanath Brast
Zanath Brast - 2 - Quailman, Astronaut
EnterYourNameHere - 1 1/3 - Aelyn, Mathcam (1/3)
Assassin - 1/3 - Mathcam (1/3)
Nanook - 1/3 - Mathcam (1/3)

Not FOS-ing: Assassin, Nanook

Since there are eight of us alive I doubt that want to vote until we have at least four FOS's on someone.

[NanookTheWolf]

Alright, I've read this page's posts and honestly I don't find Zanath all that scummy. For one, he has been the most active here, two his reaction to the fos's isn't what I would expect from scum, I mean at least he is explaining his actions, and three I don't think it is the wisest move for mafia to suggest the cop come out.

That to me is more of a newbie move, although I don't know how long ZB has played mafia.

Now if ZB is a known player of mafia for a while then my ideals may change, but for now that is how I feel.

[Zanath Brast]

For the record, I have played online mafia before, but only a few games, and that was a long time ago. So technically, I'm an experienced mafia player, but it's been a while, and I didn't play that much. You be the judge.

My FoS stands on Quailman. His motives behind his Octothorp comment are too evasive. As I said before, he had to have known that innocents as well as scum would have found that comment suspicious, especially on Day 1. Assassin and EYNH may become tied for a vague second depending on their behavior (or lack thereof).

[mathcam]

Okay, I'll narrow my FOS down to EYNH, though I'd still like to hear more from assassin, especially since if he's talking to us, he can't be out killing people.

Cam

[EnterYourNameHere]

I could have sworn I posted here earlier today. Meh.

Anyway,

UnFOS: Quailman

. I brought attention to the octothorp comment because, until then, we were debating the structure of the game instead of who's scum, which I find more important. I didn't expect it to snowball into one of the main points of discussion. (Though, I do admit, I was ready to post a full indictment of Quailman before I actually looked up what an octothorp was )

Vote: Zanath Brast.

Astronaut said it better than I ever could (post 35): he's trying to get people to give information that, at this point, would only benefit a scum.

Also, mathcam: I understand giving me the lurker FOS, but any reason in particular you're narrowing it down to just me, and not Assassin? (Nanook's posted since your original 3-way FOS, so I understand why you took it off him)

[EnterYourNameHere]

Er, whoops.

Unvote: Zanath Brast, FOS: Zanath Brast

. That's what I meant to do.

[Zanath Brast]

Why do I find that people have a tendency to twist the meaning of my words? I wasn't trying to get people to give information; I was suggesting it. You may find the difference insignificant, but it's important. I wasn't advocating number claims or revealing the cop. I was tossing those ideas out to you guys to see what you thought.

[Assasin]

I don't have time to make a real post heere. I will try to get on at around 3:00.

[Quailman]

Time for another update...

unofficial FOS count

Quailman - 1 - Zanath Brast
Zanath Brast - 3 - Quailman, Astronaut, EnterYourNameHere
EnterYourNameHere - 2 - Aelyn, Mathcam

Not FOS-ing: Assasin, Nanook

Still waiting to hear more from Assasin...

[mathcam]

There wasn't a really good reason for you instead of Assassin, EYNH, but in any case, I'll remove all those FOSes and jump on the

FOS: Zanath Brast

'wagon. If he's sincerely putting in this effort for the good of the town, then it's a bad lynch, but that's just not the vibe I'm getting from him.

Not that there's a rush, but we should figure out how to decide when we all upgrade out FOSes to votes. It would be nice if we could coordinate so that we all did so between the mod posting vote counts.

Cam

[Quailman]

Not that there's a rush, but we should figure out how to decide when we all upgrade out FOSes to votes.

I wish there was a math expert here who could help. Of the eight remaining alive, the average value of a vote is 5.75, so the expected value of four votes is, not surprisingly, 23, or one less than is required for a lynch. We probably don't want to convert to votes at four. At five, the expected value is 28.75, more than enough for a lynch. Furthermore, there are 56 combinations of five votes, and seven of these (one-eighth!) would still leave us short.

So, if five of us were to decide that it's a good idea to lynch a particular person, then we might as well go ahead and convert the FOS's to votes. If only those five vote and we fall short, then the other two, being exposed as highish numbers, might become nighttime targets. Therefor, it would behoove them to go along with the majority. If everyone is in on the voting, no one gets singled out.

It would be nice if we could coordinate so that we all did so between the mod posting vote counts.

I agree, but it's not bloody likely. If the mod is monitoring the thread and declares a lynch at three votes, well, that's a risk inherent in the set-up.