Newbie 1863 Dead Topic

[James Brafin]

oh, kk. I missed that actually. I have been skimming a ton lately. :p Then scum is between Meji and teacher? But Teach is still likely town, so that means Meji and Thor?
If I jumped all over scum for the wrong reasons, I'm going to be pissed.

[mhsmith0]

Try and think through your reads, basically bottom lining

Player X - Is town because ___, is scum because ___, I find the town explanation more credible therefore town
etc

The more you work through your logic before flips and spoiling, the more I think you get out of it.

[mhsmith0]

Lolwillage

Btw scum didn't shoot Thor they just no kill gambited and got super lucky it worked out.

[Thor665]

Btw scum didn't shoot Thor they just no kill gambited and got super lucky it worked out.

That's hillarious

Increases chance of scum in the lurkers, though sadly town doesn't know that.
Also James' reaction to a spoilered flip kind of served as a spoiler in and of itself - could that maybe be spoiled for those of us that prefer spoiler free?

Meji remains a decent flip.
The way I was hammered is twigging me more on Flicker the more I read it.

[Thor665]

I’ll also note that, at the end of the day, your lynch was essentially unopposed, as no one really took the lead on trying to save you or really selling an alternative. That sort of dull thread environment is proscum.

This is probably the most succinct way to describe the doldrums the game is in.
Maybe I should have just random wagoned Meji just to get an L-1 going?

[Thor665]

Ooooh, and here's a good mystery for the new players - why do so many games concurrently go into night phase?
I join them at different time, they have different mods, rule sets, player counts.
Always happens though - it's weird.

[mhsmith0]

Welcome Nauci!

[Nauci]

Man I legit spent like 4 and a half hours yesterday taking catch up notes. I got up to page 20 before going home, finding that my roommate's 95 lb dog diarrheaed and puked all over the carpet, and spending the rest of the night cleaning it up while he took the dog to the vet. Had a doctor appointment this morning and missed deadline.

Am so sads.

[Nauci]

I was generally in agreement that Thor looked the scummiest though, so I didn't unvote. Sorry Thor!

[mhsmith0]

Sorry

Fwiw in future just try posting a little in thread. Just a single "I think ___ about another player or game state" is more than enough to reset timer. A naked prodge or a lengthy prodge unfortunately does not.

[Nauci]

Btw scum didn't shoot Thor they just no kill gambited and got super lucky it worked out.

That's hillarious

Increases chance of scum in the lurkers, though sadly town doesn't know that.
Also James' reaction to a spoilered flip kind of served as a spoiler in and of itself - could that maybe be spoiled for those of us that prefer spoiler free?

Meji remains a decent flip.
The way I was hammered is twigging me more on Flicker the more I read it.

Does it though?

They can actively decide to no kill, no?

[Nauci]

Sorry

Fwiw in future just try posting a little in thread. Just a single "I think ___ about another player or game state" is more than enough to reset timer. A naked prodge or a lengthy prodge unfortunately does not.

Yeah I have this thing where I was determined to not post until I had actually reread and analyzed the whole thread and got stuck on that.

I also overslept this morning and was late for work. >.<

But this is kind of good in that I no longer have to stress out about being behind on both this AND work, lol. Brass is a great player!!!

This is the first time I've replaced out of a game. I never would have expected that I'd be too busy for mafia because I was healthy, not sick any more.

[Nauci]

This was a super fun game though. I didn't expect mass claims on day 2!

[Thor665]

They can actively decide to no kill, no?

They can, it's a bit suboptimal.
As stands they handed town the ability to no lynch if they're unsure of a situation late game, and gave up their ability to kill a pro-town player earlier who is unlikely to be mislynch fodder.

[Nauci]

I mean, it's a jedi mind trick that got you lynched and possibly both PRs outed?

[Nauci]

I love brass's play though so I look forward to his posts. This game had more tryhards than all of the rest of my games put together lol.

[mhsmith0]

It's not a spoiler that we're in column b or c.

If column c then 1/3 chance of a cop getting a free check.
If column b then that plus another 1/3 chance of free check by Neapolitan.

It's a risky move tbh.

[Thor665]

I mean, it's a jedi mind trick that got you lynched and possibly both PRs outed?

Jedi mind trick, town/scum blithly followin/leading.
It's a little combo of it all methinks. The claims actually did seem to help me get lynched, which is strange insomuch as (except for the math buisness which I find laughable) there was not even a single iota of info from them to increase the likelihood of me being scum.

The only thing that really frustrated me about the lynch outside of people refusing to interact with me while calling me scum was also Oxy saying I should have helped more and not thrown a tantrum - after multiple pages of me (somewhat) patiently answering the same question over and over again.
Hurts me in the feels I sez.

[Thor665]

I guess it's okay, sooner or later they'll play with one of the actual tantrum throwers on site and then they'll be able to assess me in a more functional light

[mhsmith0]

Quick Thoughts on Thor lynch from an admitted skimmer

1. it seems like the case boiled down to a combo of “jk claim gives him 50% scum odds” and “Thor is tunneling on oxy and if he was town he wouldnt be doing that”

I think the second point is... not completely terrible (presuming you’re a townie with a TR on oxy anyway)? I thought that generally speaking Thor had an overly narrow focus, and while some of that is a function of being the random guy ganged up on for not much good reason, some of it wasn’t. Then again, that describes basically the whole town in this game so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Wrt the 50% thing, barring a silly no kill stunt (and, yes, it was a silly stunt that scum got fairly lucky to not have flagrantly screw them over)...
50% odds is the sort of thing that’s probably adequate to lynch on if you’re out of ideas, if you’ve bounced around different options but noting quite seems to work, if there’s nothing much to move the needle from 50%, if town as a whole is winning and 50% win odds is WAY higher than generic scum identification odds, etc.
Here, though...
Well, to start with, presume you’re a generic vanilla townie. Eight alive, two scum, you know you’re town, so a random player has 2/7 scum odds.
Throw out NK the non cc’d jailkeeper, and you’re at 2/6, or 33%, of the remaining players.
If you presume teacher is the tracker (obviously nit proven, but not lynching or even wagoning him kinda relies on the presumption that he’s PROBABLY town), and yiu have a non cleared pool of five, two scum in that set... and 40% ain’t much different from 50%.
Moreover, generically speaking the ic has high odds of being shot n1 (a scum team lacking better ideas can reasonably be relied on to shoot there WAY more often than =rand), and is PROBABLY it going to deliver the kill if it’s a two goon setup (tho if teacher is telling the truth, scum are just going to have the goon shoot and the rolecop holster or investigate, so being the ic matters less)
So essentially, the odds stuff is very very minorly scum indicative on Thor, and really shouldn’t be a meaningful part of a case in that situation.

Ps the odds of there being two scum on the day one lynch wagon were pretty low. Why would the scum team double up on the easy mislynch when it was almost always going through regardless of what they did (not to say they couldn’t or didn’t, but it’s somewhat unusual for such a consensus day one mislynch)? I don’t think there was ever reasoning to that effect put into thread, and it’s a generically unnatural thing to actually happen. Essentially, instead of lynching ON wagon, town almost always should have been lynching, or at least directing much of its d2 focus, OFF wagon.

People complained about nauci and meji lurking (which was to an extent fair)... and then did nearly nothing to introduce consequences for said lurking.

For starters, meji had a push on nauci, that persisted even when he was in danger and Thor was the counterwagon. How serious was that push? Could it have been distancing? Or just an attempt to bury his vote where it didn’t matter? Would it have changed if nauci picked up votes and suddenly there were real consequences to his push? Hell, did anyone even care about WHY he said he was pushing nauci? Were those reasons evaluated, and then in turn used to refine the read on him? Not really, and the reason for said lack was that this town was LAZY. It’s hard work to think about what people are saying, why they’re saying it, and involve yourself in discussions beyond your pet pushes. But doing so is vital if you want to win as town other than when your power roles bail you out, or when the scum team plays like crap, or there’s one good townie with a brain who carries you. This town has played badly, deserves to get swept, and probably will get swept.

[Thor665]

it seems like the case boiled down to a combo of “jk claim gives him 50% scum odds” and “Thor is tunneling on oxy and if he was town he wouldnt be doing that”

It wasn't so much that I was tunneling on Oxy, it was that I changed my scum read from Teacher after his claim to Oxy as opposed to putting it on Meji when I had claimed town on Oxy and scum on Meji (this did ignore that at the same time I said that I indicated if I was wrong on Teacher I'd want to reevaluate my town reads...but...) Also there was some sort of concept that by flipping me, whatever alignment I was would also be Meji's alignment - I never quite understood how anyone reached that idea, but at least 2 people and maybe a 3rd were advocating it as part of the general overall push on me.

I think that was the general idea of the case on me.

[Thor665]

Also, like, everything I posted was scummy

But that's most tunneled cases everywhere, natch

[Nauci]

The reason I got scummy vibes from you was because so much of your posting was defensive (and often kind of brusque about it), which I admittedly bias against.

[Nauci]

I see Meji types so much more often than Oxy/teacher/Irrelephant types. This game is so anomalous lol.

Oh and gg on our other game. TW played us so hard in the dead thread lmao

[Nauci]

I feel 100x less guilt about getting replaced because it was brass

He's capable of towning it up so much better than even I can, even when I'm trying hard