to check the thread and post vote counts if necessary when I'm away because I know large games can go very quickly if there are a few people active at the same time.
This shows a basic lack of understanding of how probabilities work. But that’s alright.
Posted: Mon Jan 04, 2021 2:05 pm
by Andresvmb
In post 25, NorwegianboyEE wrote:If we can’t trust a miller claim then what is there left for us to believe.
Agreed. That’s the towniest Miller claim I have ever seen.
Posted: Mon Jan 04, 2021 2:19 pm
by NoPowerOverMe
are you saying that if you flipped a coin 10 times in a row heads that you wouldn't be more inclined to bet on it being tails next time even if that's not necessarily mathematically the case?
Posted: Mon Jan 04, 2021 2:24 pm
by NorwegianboyEE
A coin flip is 50% scum/town probability
If we assume this game has like 4 scum or 5 then it’s closer to 25% likely any slot would be mafia.
Posted: Mon Jan 04, 2021 2:26 pm
by NoPowerOverMe
I'm not referring to this game I'm referring to that Andres has played a lot of town.
Posted: Mon Jan 04, 2021 2:29 pm
by NorwegianboyEE
Well he’s still right it’s faulty thinking.
If i roll town 10 times in a row that doesn’t make it somehow more likely that i roll scum if the chance of being mafia is always lower than the chance of being town.
It’s like assuming that because i didn’t get a rare drop from Gacha in the first 50 pulls then i’ll get it nect time, even if the chance to get a rare drop is perhaps as low as 0.06%
Posted: Mon Jan 04, 2021 2:32 pm
by Gamma Emerald
am bab
Posted: Mon Jan 04, 2021 2:32 pm
by NoPowerOverMe
I'm aware of the fallacy but from an emotional standpoint there's still some validity there I think. I'm not saying hes scum butonestly I will look for any excuse to bypass Rvs.
Andres and NPOM reactions to the Miller claim are interesting.
Posted: Mon Jan 04, 2021 3:33 pm
by Andresvmb
In post 34, NoPowerOverMe wrote:I'm aware of the fallacy but from an emotional standpoint there's still some validity there I think. I'm not saying hes scum butonestly I will look for any excuse to bypass Rvs.
Don’t worry I had a feeling that you were really just trying to push me in some sort of way to get a reaction and see if you can figure out my alignment from that. Unfortunately it just won’t be that easy. I’ll try and make it obvious to you this is still my Town self though.
In post 25, NorwegianboyEE wrote:If we can’t trust a miller claim then what is there left for us to believe.
Agreed. That’s the towniest Miller claim I have ever seen.
I doubt you are sincere, but if you are, could you please explain what makes that miller claim townie?
Yeah I was definitely being a bit over the top about it.
I’m not sure what the site meta is here regarding Millers, but if they are claimed by Town more often than not, then I would judge the slot based on the merits and not so much the claim.
Posted: Mon Jan 04, 2021 3:37 pm
by NoPowerOverMe
If he has claimed Miller has scum before that would be part of the merits I would think.
Posted: Mon Jan 04, 2021 3:37 pm
by Binatog13
This is my first normal large game. I might encounter new roles here. If I have questions about a particular role, can you answer it? Thanks! There is no role setup unlike in my Newbie game, so idk on how many town and mafia are in here.
Can I ask what a Miller is?
Posted: Mon Jan 04, 2021 3:38 pm
by Andresvmb
And in case it wasn’t clear, that’s what I intend to do. I won’t be overly focused on the Claim, though from my experience it comes from Town more often than not.
Posted: Mon Jan 04, 2021 3:38 pm
by NoPowerOverMe
Miller gets a guily result from cops even though they are town.
Posted: Mon Jan 04, 2021 3:40 pm
by Momrangal
Ego
VOTE: DBG
NEVER AGAIN
Posted: Mon Jan 04, 2021 3:40 pm
by NoPowerOverMe
Just for your information there is a Wikipedia entry for every role.
Posted: Mon Jan 04, 2021 3:41 pm
by Vaxkiller
Hes not a miller, but hes town!
Posted: Mon Jan 04, 2021 3:41 pm
by Binatog13
In post 43, NoPowerOverMe wrote:Miller gets a guily result from cops even though they are town.