Xenosaga Mafia (Game Over)

[Cephrir]

I suppose I should amend that to "my recent experience". ffery gets mad at me when I try to hold her to the Amnesiac standard though, perhaps justifiably.

[sangres]

what's your current read on Ceph?

I generally don't form quick reads on Cephrir. When I do (see my towning him after he replaced into the Red Wine game even after he voted me in his catch-up), I'm often as not wrong. After the ASOIAF game (which I followed, didn't play) I'm more cautious than before. I'd lean a little town about him after his most recent posts if it were someone else. :/

and how sure are you of Skull town? the only thing giving me reservations about her is that it's a meta-based read and she doesn't have any scumgames to verify she can't fake as scum. I assume you don't think she can fake this kind of posting as scum right

"can't fake as scum" doesn't have much to do with the way I build models. I have been able to catch players on the basis of my town-model not fitting their behaviors in a game. It's not just "does X" or "doesn't do Y".

If she is town, then her body of work will point in that direction. If what accumulates in the game thread doesn't continue to say "town" to me, I'll modify the read.

People ask me this kind of question all the time, and I think it comes down to a communications gap. I can't fully express the gestalt that goes into a read, so I pick some highlights that I think hang together and will resonate. Or maybe I could express the gestalt if I were willing to write really, really long walls that nobody would want to read.

At any rate that kind of wall isn't going to happen.

[MafiaSSK]

Pieguys walls on this page feel town. But I dunno.

Eh, sure.
UNVOTE:

what was the basis for your initial scumread on me?

what do you make of mastin townreading you based on 3 posts? do you two usually read each other that well or

The original quote seemed scummy as hell for rvs for me. Not that I can remember why, but it did.

I think after we've played as MastinSSK, we've both gotten to know each other better. Mastin to a way better extent of me than vice versa, but the point remains.

[zMuffinMan]

lol @ people thinking mastin is scum

[zMuffinMan]

Unvote
Vote: Pieguy

[mastin2]

If you think the wagon is scummy, why do you dislike me for not jumping on it?

Because of the way you didn't jump on it. Like I said--two, maybe three scum on it. Not all the scum. They'd want to avoid that.

What about that post makes you think completely precludes them from both being town? o.o
The Kaze-town MS-scum possibility from that post makes especially little sense to me.

Nothing. Just my general analysis. Kaze looks sorta scummy, MS looks sorta scummy, so I don't think they're both town. Simple.

Literally can't believe you just handwaved my entire post

Clarification: I understand your "townreads". I don't understand why YOU have townreads on ya.

There is not nearly enough evidence to support either of these reads

Sure isn't, but that doesn't mean they're not right. BRO's town, Nacho's town; game is a town win.

That's literally his entire fucking ISO, mastin.

So? It's townish. Not really town, but town enough.

If Brian flips Town, I'd be more inclined to look at who

wasn't

on his wagon to find Scum since I imagine that Scum off the wagon wouldn't want to touch it with a ten-foot pole.

True, but this also applies to the beginning of the wagon--those on it early didn't know what was coming, thus, could be scum.

Can you go into a bit more detail about why you find Cephrir scummy? He's a tentative Town read of mine since his suspicion of me seems to be coming from a Town mindset, so I'm interested in hearing counter-arguments to either solidify or change this read, and I believe you're the first person to express suspicion of Cephrir.

Not right now, but maybe later. Basically, he could be town, but his posting feels like scum manipulating things rather than town scumhunting.

The only thing that SSK has done so far is vote for Pieguyn.

So? (And technically speaking, there was more than just the vote.)

the way I see it, town-you stays light and waffles a lot, and then sometime later when your picture of the game state is correct you figure it out and start owning the fk out of the scum.

Surprised me, too! I literally had no clue I was going to come in and be like, "wow, that...seemed surprisingly easy". Which is the main reason I haven't already flipped the switch; generally if I think I'm this good, it's because my reads have gone horribly wrong rather than actually being that damn good.

not to mention you voted me before you even finished reading the thread. if you hadn't read the thread why would you park your vote on me so soon?

Because I saw you as suspicious?
Suspicion that only grew as I saw and continue to see your posting?

also, where are you currently at with zmuffin?

Town, hands-down. It's not an absolute read, but it's a reasonably-strong read all the same.

PEdit: Wow Ceph looks town.

That post was a whole bundle-load of null, though.

(And, yeah, orc could be scum, but I'm not certain of that.)

Hey Mastin and I's reads are syncing! This is a good sign!

Extremely!

Pieguys walls on this page feel town. But I dunno.

Would love to see you explain, since to me it seems like more of the same, only worse.

I think after we've played as MastinSSK, we've both gotten to know each other better. Mastin to a way better extent of me than vice versa, but the point remains.

I also was fairly good at telling your alignment before-hand; MastinSSK just made it much easier. Butyeah, both town.

lol @ people thinking mastin is scum

Indeed.

[Cabd]

So? It's townish. Not really town, but town enough.

Do tell. I can pick random shit from tumblr and say "oh that's townish, town enough" without any substantial data. What about that specific post made it more likely to come from a town mindset than a scum mindset?

[mastin2]

What about that specific post made it more likely to come from a town mindset than a scum mindset?

Because it fits my understanding of Action Dan as town and not as scum? It's one post. It's not strong. But it's there. It's a read.

[mastin2]

TOWN:
MafiaSSK
Angry Frat BROs
Sangres
zMuffinman

Skullduggery
Kagami

Varsoon
macmollie
Cabd
Brian Skies (fairly interchangeable with Cabd, but overall weaker)

LEANING TOWN:
ActionDan
orcinus_theoriginal

LYNCH POOL:
pieguyn
Aegor (mutually exclusive with Cephrir)
Cephrir (mutually exclusive with Aegor)
Kazekirimaru
Metal Sonic
Flandre Scarlet

NULL:
Venmar

So basically, 7 or so names for scum candidates, maaaaaaaaaaaaybe eight if you bump orcinus down--I need a little over half that. (I'm

guessing

five scum for this game, but it's difficult to be certain if it's four or five.)

I'm otherwise preoccupied, so I'll see if I can analyze the details later.

[pieguyn]

Unvote
Vote: Pieguy

care to explain why?

also you have about two seconds to explain mastin town before I run your ass into the ground for being his partner

Surprised me, too! I literally had no clue I was going to come in and be like, "wow, that...seemed surprisingly easy". Which is the main reason I haven't already flipped the switch; generally if I think I'm this good, it's because my reads have gone horribly wrong rather than actually being that damn good.

so you as town came into this thread and immediately posted a full reads list despite 1. thinking your reads might have gone horribly wrong and 2. some people only having like 1 or 2 posts? if you're having doubts about your reads then why would you immediately declare a reads list like that? in imperishable night when you were having doubts about your reads you outright POSTED how unsure you were about your reads. but here you feel perfectly comfortable announcing firm reads on people who only have like 1 post?

this is what I don't get. your thought process doesn't make any sense to me. if you were considering "flipping the switch" this early and thus thought there was a chance all your reads could be terribly wrong, why wouldn't you say so considering

you did the same thing in imperishable night?

instead you immediately default to "I'm this good", which is why you're scum. there's no transparency. instead you act all confident when you're really not

Town, hands-down. It's not an absolute read, but it's a reasonably-strong read all the same.

so you somehow have a "hands-down" town read despite the fact that he's done fuck all so far? defend your buddy harder

[mastin2]

so you as town came into this thread and immediately posted a full reads list despite 1. thinking your reads might have gone horribly wrong and 2. some people only having like 1 or 2 posts?

Not immediately. My reads list is the sixth in my iso. But yes. I did. Number of posts doesn't matter; I've got the read and I'm going to say as much.

if you're having doubts about your reads then why would you immediately declare a reads list like that? but here you feel perfectly comfortable announcing firm reads on people who only have like 1 post?

Yeah? I mean. I have the reads. They're probably wrong, but they're what I'm feeling all the same.

if you were considering "flipping the switch" this early and thus thought there was a chance all your reads could be terribly wrong, why wouldn't you say so considering

you did the same thing in imperishable night?

Not sure you understand what that expression means. I basically have said exactly this--that the reason I haven't flipped the switch is because I'm generally not

this

accurate early on. Basically, I feel, gut-wise, that my reads are awesome enough to basically flip the switch now. Rationally-wise, I know better. I'm

not

that good, even though I FEEL like I am. Basically, I AM confident. I just know said confidence will eventually waver.

Town, hands-down. It's not an absolute read, but it's a reasonably-strong read all the same.

so you somehow have a "hands-down" town read despite the fact that he's done fuck all so far?

Yep! Join the club with Cephrir, Cabd, and several others chastising me for it. It's there. It exists. I have it. That's the best explanation I can give.

[ActionDan]

LEANING TOWN:
ActionDan

wow really.

I'm still going to murder you

[Kazekirimaru]

Oh look, walls.

Did you /see/ it? There were some pretty scary votes there. It was useful though, I think Muffin is town now. Also, Brian's reaction was pretty odd.

"Odd?" Do tell.

I would have been too, but the self vote kind of made me care less.

I personally wouldn't have minded if the wagon continued on.

I'll be honest: When it comes to this series of questions from Kaze, my instinctive reaction is "kinda sorta feels faked". It's something I can see being legitimate scumhunting, but can also see as being scum faking it.
When it comes to a similar series of questions from Skull, though, my instinctive reaction is, "Oh! Yeah! That's town, alright."

So, why do they feel different?

Vote: Brian

i don't think brian is scum

Is probably town, but I need more to be sure. (Seventh.)

General agreements here, but why do you think so?

Are ya now?

I like Skullduggery for town. I thought I'd have warm fuzzies about Kaze by now, but I don't.

That's cool. You've given me none, either.

I can give you the TL;DR if you'd prefer?

You offer this so soon after bringing up ny 165 and

shaping reads

.

lolparanoia

Okay, maybe one warm fuzzy for you.

Kazekirimaru

If I wanted people to know who I was, I would be on my main account. That being said, you're the only one who really called out my naked vote on Brian. Townpoints to you.

Metadodgers make me sad. I wish I could lynch you just for this reason.

Funny, the former is what this entire post feels like to me

You too, eh?

Indeed, but this wagon feels different. It's not an all-scum wagon, but I'd be surprised if it was mostly or entirely town. Like I said, I'm betting either two or three scum on it. Probs not Skull, Kagami, Varsoon, zMuff, or Brian Skies. But could be Kaze (nullscum), pie (scum), Flandre Scarlet (null), Metal Sonic (nullscum), or orcinus (nullish, maaaaaybe nulltown; difficult to be certain).

What makes this one feel different?

There is not nearly enough evidence to support either of these reads

Hey, someone sees it!

4. Brian Skies
^Also town. Brian Skies gives off the aura of a town player who doesn't give a crap about the wagon on him. He's relaxed, he's casual, and he's also not being a lurkaderp; he's still putting time, effort, and analysis into the game.

What did you think of his selfvote?

And how can you say he's not lurking at this point? The game has been up for two days and he hasn't posted for the latter one.

5. Cabd
^Town. I admittedly do not know Cabd that well; I'm not sure I've seen his scumgame and am not intimately familiar with his towngame. But his posting so far just feels like town, and that's good enough for me.

lol It really shouldn't be.

8. Kagami
^Town. I can see the aura of towniness emitting from Kagami right now, and it is clear as can be.

Agreements. But again, why?

10. macmollie (mac + pirate mollie)
^Fairly decently town. Mollie hasn't done much, but what she has done gave me an immediate townvibe from her.

How?

No but really, mastin, several of your stances are very unsubstantiated and it bugs me.

And someone else sees it!

I wouldn't have voted for Brian if I didn't think he was Scum, so I'm looking more closely at the second scenario right now. The first three people on the Brian wagon were Kaze, Pieguyn, and Flandre. Of those three, Flandre is making me the most uncomfortable. I see nothing but fluff, a naked vote, and what looks like an attempt to produce content just for the sake of producing content.

And my reasoning was so much better?

holy fuck you really are scum
vote: mastin

Let's vote together this whole game, yeah? Apparently we're both town~!

It's not true of the two games that I played with scum-Mastin. And in my prior meta-forays, I found him to be arrogant and confident in some of his town games. But, I don't constantly re-meta or read ALL the games like some players I could mention.

I disagree. PA's LesMis and Mastin's play there disagree, as well.

People ask me this kind of question all the time, and I think it comes down to a communications gap. I can't fully express the gestalt that goes into a read, so I pick some highlights that I think hang together and will resonate. Or maybe I could express the gestalt if I were willing to write really, really long walls that nobody would want to read.

I'd read it!

also you have about two seconds to explain mastin town before I run your ass into the ground for being his partner

Oi, yes. I feel town-pie for sure. I like it.

---

I'm having some troubles this game, I fear. I didn't expect this. I got far too few strong reads from the first few pages. I'm upset.

This is a thing, though:

VOTE: Mastin

Take a little trip with me.

[sangres]

I disagree. PA's LesMis and Mastin's play there disagree, as well.

Right. Sometimes Mastin is arrogant as town. Sometimes he's arrogant as scum. Sometimes he's hesitant as town. Sometimes he's hesitant as scum. Soooo...I'm looking for something more definitive. I dunno. Maybe there's something definitive in the thread already and I'm just not seeing it yet.

[mastin2]

wow really.

I'm still going to murder you

Would you prefer a faked scumread?

I'll be honest: When it comes to this series of questions from Kaze, my instinctive reaction is "kinda sorta feels faked". It's something I can see being legitimate scumhunting, but can also see as being scum faking it.
When it comes to a similar series of questions from Skull, though, my instinctive reaction is, "Oh! Yeah! That's town, alright."

So, why do they feel different?

If I knew this, that'd make things so much simpler. It's called "feeling" because it's FEELING, not knowing. Skull's posting looks like it comes from a town mindset, scumhunting. Yours...didn't.

General agreements here, but why do you think so?

Well, it's hard to say. It felt like the distinctive trolling of a town-zMuff. (zMuff trolls regardless of alignment, obv, but this trolling felt like town-trolling.) Since then, it's been much stronger. This is his town self. I have a fairly good grasp of it, and to a high degree of certainty, I can say that it's him. Yeah, I could be wrong--but I'm almost certainly not.

What makes this one feel different?

Well, that game, it felt like it was fairly town overall anyway. I seem to recall I said as much. Something like "I realize that it seems improbable, but I REALLY don't see who the scum here could be, except maybe *one player of the eight*." Said player was wrong, but my analysis was correct; it was a town-driven wagon.

This one felt different. It felt like it was mainly driven by town, but not entirely driven by town--that there should be two or three scum.

What did you think of his selfvote?

Contributes to the townread but is not the entirety of it.

Agreements. But again, why?

Well, because Kagami's posting just seems, well, like it comes from a townset without manipulation. Like, that it's actually town posting.

10. macmollie (mac + pirate mollie)
^Fairly decently town. Mollie hasn't done much, but what she has done gave me an immediate townvibe from her.

How?

Well, because I have a decent grip on mollie and this feels like a town mollie. She's playing basically as I'd expect a town her to do so, rather than a scum her. Not much to see, sure, but enough for that read.

Take a little trip with me.

Indeed, because you have to be on a trip in order to see me as scum.

It's not true of the two games that I played with scum-Mastin. And in my prior meta-forays, I found him to be arrogant and confident in some of his town games. But, I don't constantly re-meta or read ALL the games like some players I could mention.

For the record. It's cyclic. It goes back and forth. I even said this in some of my previous games. The town me of a few months ago is the scum me of the present...and vice-versa. Really depends. It's actually more of a "Mastin's mental health" tell than it is of an alignment-tell. And right now, I'm thinking I'm beating depression, so...happy thoughts = happy town play.

[Kazekirimaru]

I really wish you could give me something more than "It is because it feelz"

I mean, I play heavily on gut. Really. Ask anyone. But this is just ridiculous.

[Cabd]

Mastin, when you attempt to turn in your AP Calc homework with just answers and no work shown, don't be fucking surprised when everyone thinks you cheated and already had the answer sheet.

[zMuffinMan]

ffery

ask me why i know mastin is town

[sangres]

Zmuffin,

Why do you need to be asked?

And why do you know mastin is town?

[Cabd]

lolparanoia

Okay, maybe one warm fuzzy for you.

Not really. Treating me any differently would be taken as a scumclaim.

[mastin2]

Mastin, when you attempt to turn in your AP Calc homework with just answers and no work shown, don't be fucking surprised when everyone thinks you cheated and already had the answer sheet.

Fun fact:

I used mental math for concepts that most people couldn't do without calculations for

years

. In fact, my mental math often proved more accurate than my written math, because mentally, I came to the right answer, but when trying to do the processes that I had skipped, I made mistakes--sometimes obviously, or sometimes knowing they were mistakes yet not being able to figure out *why* they were mistakes.

I was later forced to learn to write it down because my teacher refused to give credit for the mental math, in spite of me having absolutely no method of cheating and my answers largely being right anyway. Understandably, I was worse at math for a while before I learned how to adjust.

So, yes, I can be surprised that people think I cheated, because I'm an honorable guy, for the most part. I expect me saying "No, I didn't cheat; that'd just be cheating myself. Why would I cheat?", means that people won't think I'm cheating, since I wasn't. I just did it, naturally. Granted, there were some things I needed to work at--to study. But for the most part, math was intuitive. I grasped the concept, and really really

got

it. (I did have trouble tying separate concepts together, though. Doing one, was fine. Doing the other, was fine. Doing both, my mind broke down.) Anything I write down is mostly a formality in math for me having already worked out the answer. The mind's faster than the hand.

...You probably need a better metaphor.

[zMuffinMan]

Zmuffin,

Why do you need to be asked?

And why do you know mastin is town?

i needed you specifically to ask for this to be funny

meta

[Cabd]

No, YOU need to give me one of your patented walls'o'text telling me what the baseline for dantown and danscum entry posts is; and how specifically this matches the town baseline more. This is a team game, not a "stroke mastin's inflated ego" game.

[sangres]

lolparanoia

Okay, maybe one warm fuzzy for you.

Not really. Treating me any differently would be taken as a scumclaim.

Paranoia is at an all time low.

[Cabd]

Must be nice.