Newbie 1961 | Trees II | Over

[Plotinus]

Official Vote Count 1.09

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Lynching

With 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

Jamelia

(3): FancyPants, tictac, Zenith

Zenith

(2): Suspicious, Jamelia

january

(1): Vorkuta

Not Voting

(3): january, ceejayvinoya, GeorgeBailey

Deadline:

(expired on 2019-10-26 08:30:00).

Mod notes:

FancyPants is V/LA until Monday[/area]

[january]

was really busy this weekend so i’ve been following along but didn’t really have time to post much sorry

also meant to post this comment about tictac’s scumread on Jamelia last night but fell asleep at my computer instead oops

i

hate

very strongly dislike how much meta tictac used in the read on jamelia, but i do think it came from a town perspective. basically, i don’t think mafia would be putting this much effort into digging for meta to build reads because their reads are fake anyways. i highly doubt a scum tictac would be putting this much effort into lynching a town unless his partner was in danger of getting lynched

i think i’m about 60/30 for Jamelia being scum. his response to tictac feels to me to be really reactive. it felt like he just attacked tictac’s use of meta just because it was meta, rather than attempting to disprove it. meta is a part of the game, so I don’t really see a problem with including it in a read. you are playing a lot differently than it seems from that quote. however, i think there is a somewhat reasonable meta-based defense of jamelia since newer players tend to respond more reactively from my experience

[january]

lol 60/40** sorry can’t do math

i’d be willing to join the wagon on jamelia because i think it’ll still give us a lot of information even if he flips town. gonna hold my vote for now just cuz i’m wary of putting anyone in L-1 right now - or maybe i’m just scared of voting idk

i’m feeling slightly less sure on vork and i don’t feel like lynching him would add anything to the conversation if he flips town

i‘ve been trying to following the interactions between suspicious and zenith but trying to read it kinda hurts my head lol. probably a ridiculous idea but i’m actually considering the possibility of it being a scum-scum distancing strategy because it just seems so unnecessarily extended. very unlikely because it seems like a useless expenditure of energy but it‘s be funny if it was.

[Suspicious]

lol 60/40** sorry can’t do math

i’d be willing to join the wagon on jamelia because i think it’ll still give us a lot of information even if he flips town. gonna hold my vote for now just cuz i’m wary of putting anyone in L-1 right now - or maybe i’m just scared of voting idk

i’m feeling slightly less sure on vork and i don’t feel like lynching him would add anything to the conversation if he flips town

i‘ve been trying to following the interactions between suspicious and zenith but trying to read it kinda hurts my head lol. probably a ridiculous idea but i’m actually considering the possibility of it being a scum-scum distancing strategy because it just seems so unnecessarily extended. very unlikely because it seems like a useless expenditure of energy but it‘s be funny if it was.

What makes a Jamelia lynch informative at this stage compared to other options?

[Suspicious]

I also am getting a sense that many of your stances come with a built-in backtrack should they not pan out; this is evident from your first accusation against Suspy in #83, where your read is given the caveat of potentially being incorrect, saying 'please' to get counter-arguments. The same thing happens in #101 where you admit you could be missing something re: Suspy's logic on a Bailey suspicion. The current read on Jamelia reads the same, incorporating a relatively high level of uncertainty. It just feels like such a middle-of-the-road stance to take here.

This is also some projecting on my end, but things like #153 aren't very substantial in any regard and serve to fill space; it's a big neon sign of town wanting to show interest and wanting the game to be active. It's not strictly AI, but it's something that has been used by scum to give the illusion of participation/willingness to solve.

[january]

kinda explained it compared to vorkuta - vorkuta has barely been involved in any interactions with people besides me, so i don’t think him dying would help anything with my reads

Jamelia has been interacting a lot with a lot of players
-fancy and jamelia (interaction quoted in #105 and #120: almost 100% sure they’re not scum partners
-jamelia and tictac (basically everything recently): if jamelia flips maf then tictac alamo’s confirmed town imo
-jamelia and zenith: if jam flips town, gonna fos zenith for how quickly they joined tictac’s vote

just realized almost all of these rely on jamelia being scum but uhhh...

there’ll probably be more based on whoever else casts the vote and reactions tomorrow which i can’t really predict

[january]

i’m assuming suspy is talking about you (talking about yourself in 3rd person?)

i think it’s normal to believe that leave room for the fact that my read could be incorrect that early... but yeah in general i do have weaker reads until much later in the game (a lot of my reads usually come from interactions and previous flips

in early reads i’d rather have people give me feedback based on my reads to generate discussion and forcing people to interact. people just sending their reads and not interacting makes it harder to read

also, i feel like my read on jamelia has been the most confident so far (i know.. 60/40 isn’t confident by any standard) but it’s accompanied with an almost-intention to vote so it’s at more confident than before

re: #153, yeah it was filler but nobody was there and i was constantly checking back for the whole 4+ hours. guess i’m just not used to waiting that long and i’m impatient

[Suspicious]

Fair enough. Even though I'm not entirely convinced that it's genuine uncertainty there's no much substance to press on.

I would like more from Vork at this juncture as well.

VOTE: unvote Zen

Partly due to lost confidence, partly because it's a vote that isn't getting any attention anymore.

Changing the format of the unvote so that the automated vote counter can understand: UNVOTE: --P

[january]

Anyways, the reason I didn't do an immediate unvote, is

because I don't think the others realized we were putting Suspicious at L-1/L-2.

I don't want people being held at L-1 without people noticing. I don't want an early mislynch, and I don't want people to be voted out early even if they're a power role. Did I insinuate that in some of my earlier posts?

still confused - i'm guessing there's some misunderstanding here - can you please clarify?

[january]

btw my computer's ip address has been blacklisted from posting for some reason - going to be doing all my posts from my phone until i can figure out a vpn or how to get un-blacklisted

please excuse all weird typos and formatting and i will probably be less active until i figure this out, it's really hard to post from mobile

[Zenith]

Let's see, what has ceejayvinoya done so far?

-14 posts total, half of which are blatant inconsequential fluff posts.
-A naked vote on me, and a naked townread on Fancy.
-Has said my name 6 times, sheeping without adding anything of substance.
-Other than the naked town read on fancy, hasn't mentioned any other player besides me.
-And then there's this interesting little tidbit:

VOTE: CJ
The more pages that pass without him making a first post, the townie he is.
This was too early.

Hey I'm trying to give effort here and play better.

I don't want to be well known

that

way

I asked a question early, please answer when you're caught up.

Yeah yeah I saw it, I don't feel like answering it yet tho. It forces a half baked read out of me.

Try again later.

VOTE: ceejayvinoya
Hello CJ..

[january]

can ceejay be prodded it's been almost 48 hours

[Plotinus]

ceejayvinoya¹ and GeorgeBailey¹ have been prodded. They have (expired on 2019-10-23 01:46:30) to post before I start looking for a replacement.

[GeorgeBailey]

I don't think lynching Jamelia will get anywhere, since it's based A LOT on Meta.

I'm fine with putting a wagon on CJ, mostly because of

I have fancypants as town for the way they are playing earlier, maybe January too.

Zenith's points are little odd. (He DID say that he voted you because he didn't like the way you were answering sus's questions.)

VOTE: CJ

(Also sorry for prod, was literally just writing something.)

[Suspicious]

In fairness to Jan, a Jamelia lynch does have connections attached to it. I agree the meta argument shouldn't be used as a push.

A Cee vote is the complete opposite. His lack of activity makes him a frustrating player, but it's not necessarily AI. What makes Cee a more valuable flip here?

[GeorgeBailey]

While voting someone who isn't active is a pretty shitty way to get an alignment, I just hope it'll get something out of him. Same with Vork. But at least Vork had reads, CJ hasn't really done anything. I really hope this changes if a wagon is started on CJ. As for Jan's points against Jam, lynching someone to read reactions between posts seems odd, and she even said

almost all of these rely on jamelia being scum but uhhh...

I don't see any real reason to vote Jam, I was going to vote Zenith because of CJ's reasons, but I think my vote is better placed here.

Plus, Zenith finally answered your questions, and I think the whole L-1 debacle isn't too relevant now. But I can really go either way.

[GeorgeBailey]

still confused - i'm guessing there's some misunderstanding here - can you please clarify?

err, ok. Last time at trying to clarify this wording. By "immediate unvote" I mean naked vote. I wanted to communicate that this was L-1,

and

to unvote. I don't think people realized it got to that. It was dumb to assume people didn't notice, especially since this games has 3 SE's, but I thought I should atleast say a "wtf" along with my vote.

[GeorgeBailey]

hate very strongly dislike how much meta tictac used in the read on jamelia, but i do think it came from a town perspective. basically, i don’t think mafia would be putting this much effort into digging for meta to build reads because their reads are fake anyways. i highly doubt a scum tictac would be putting this much effort into lynching a town unless his partner was in danger of getting lynched

I do agree with this though, although a bit aggressive with the meta and online time analysis, it seems like a townie trying really hard to get reads from people. So I guess my earlier read was pretty wrong.

i’d be willing to join the wagon on jamelia because i think it’ll still give us a lot of information even if he flips town

But I hate this. We shouldn't be voting someone who

might

flip town. Rather, someone who's scummy and

might

flip scum. I don't think much info will come from this.

January is odd because they’re knew, but responding like a vet. So that’s just something to watch out for.

Jan responded earlier she has experience with Mafia chat, so that's not really something to watch out for.

[january]

ok i think i understand thanks - very messy misunderstanding there lol

i think i’m just convinced jamelia is scum and trying to justify the lynch to myself tbh. if the alternative to lynching jamelia is lynching ceejay, then my point about getting reads from the flip is even more valid because ceejay hasn’t don’t anything... but the reason i want to vote jamelia isn’t that they might flip town, it’s that i think they’re scum. BUT if they flip town i’ll be ok

anyways j think i’ve stalled this for too long just gonna put the vote up since i don’t see myself changing my mind
VOTE: Jamelia

[Suspicious]

ok i think i understand thanks - very messy misunderstanding there lol

i think i’m just convinced jamelia is scum and trying to justify the lynch to myself tbh. if the alternative to lynching jamelia is lynching ceejay, then my point about getting reads from the flip is even more valid because ceejay hasn’t don’t anything... but the reason i want to vote jamelia isn’t that they might flip town, it’s that i think they’re scum. BUT if they flip town i’ll be ok

anyways j think i’ve stalled this for too long just gonna put the vote up since i don’t see myself changing my mind
VOTE: Jamelia

If you're comfortable possibly flipping a town, why not flip Zenith? You shouldn't be okay with allowing a potential mislynch.

[Zenith]

Effort isn't AI. Whether someone is extremely inactive, or going the extra mile putting in crazy effort, you'll find both town and scum everywhere throughout that spectrum.

[Suspicious]

My issue with meta is that it is easily manipulated; what was once AI indicative of a player, once known in the meta mainstream, can then be used as a tactic for that player to disguise themselves. It essentially turns the meta read on its head and makes it a weapon. The same can be said for when meta is used against a player, as it is easy to make a meta argument that can fit a given narrative.

Meta is argued over so often and contradicted; it has its merits to be sure, but it should never be the entire basis for a push.

[FancyPants]

I've received my prod and still can't respond to it for to it for the next 26 hours, I quite literally don't have time to contribute until then
If you feel the need to replace me, you can but I will get back to this game tomorrow evening, cross my heart and hope to die.

[january]

i don’t want to lynch zenith because i don’t scum read them? it’s not like i’m going out of my way to lynch town lol... jamelia is my strongest scumread i thought i made that clear

what’s wrong with accepting that i might be wrong? everyone is a potential mislynch it’s not like anyone is confirmed maf. i’m voting the person who i think is least likely to be a mislynch

[Suspicious]

There's a difference between accepting a potential incorrect route vs. being okay with a mislynch, which #268 comes across as. You're not too confident on the read to begin with, once again adding the attached caveat of knowing you could be wrong, but killing a town would be okay anyways. The phrasing of the post makes that stand out; instead of taking a stronger stance, where the outcome is assumed scum/hoped to be scum, you add the possibility it's most likely wrong. Keeping in mind your best read is a 60/40 at best, and even that seems malleable.

My point being that if you find it likely Jam is town here to a decent degree, and you have demonstrated you're comfortable with a mislynch, why not then flip someone who has also had interactions/could have info with their flip?

I'm actually unclear on your stance on Zenith to this point; all I can see is #252 and a future scumlean in #255 in the event of a Jam lynch. I've softened on Zen recently, but I'm surprised nothing they've done has been a scumping to you or even worth discussing to a noticeable extent.