Mini Theme 2217 | Owner's market blitz | Over

[cyrus62]

5 hours after what is apparently scum trying to gauge where the town is bidding (whether Cyrus is scum or not, tbh he is the only player in the lobby I would say the 125 split is NAI for with confidence). They see nobody is bidding high yet. 5 hours later, in comes Imaginality to lead town toward spending 400 on all roles. Imagine scum dont bid on anything toDay. Town spends 1600,

loses 500, or 100 and a purchased role

, then in the likely situation that they avoid hitting the doctor target and get a kill, that's another 500 down.

The bolded part assumes we mis-exile. We could exile scum...
Even if we grant your assumption, we're 500 (or X and a purchased role) down x2 if scum successfully nightkill regardless of what bidding strategy we implement. It makes no sense not to bid hard - and without a PT the only way we can reliably cover all the PRs (enough to force scum to bid high for them) without scum knowing who to target for their NK is if we each choose randomly.

Where was this strategy before midday? We were already very deep into mechanical discussion when he made his previous post, so why not bring it up before midDay?

Hadn't thought of it by then. At first I was wondering if there was a way we could assign people by name to each PR but that gives scum too much information for their NK tonight and subsequent nights.

While his suggestion is appealing at first, even to me, from a numbers standpoint, I think what they are doing is baiting town into spending a lot of their money so that in later days scum can outbid.

We get our money back if we're outbid.
I think these roles are worth bidding for.
It's less advantageous to us to get roles on later days - less chance to use them, more chance to be NKed before using them.

The next bit gets tinfoil, but I would not be surprised to find out flea is the scum's preferred MO candidate and see that Imaginality eventually concedes and switches his vote there as I'm currently leading. Whether his means flea is scum or one of the scum has a friendly relationship with Flea that may lead Flea to elect that scum as a replacement, I do not know.

Right now if I vote someone other than me as MO I'd lean more towards Cupcake Butterfly.


@Misty re the scumslip: I felt the comment where ssbm assumed the 125 voter was town was suspicious - in that if he is scum (and they aren't the 125 voter(s)), he would know the 125 voter is town. So I feel that apparent assumption could be indicative of hidden knowledge.

look i did it and now scum is going let me win all 4 and kill me at night.

[Mistyx]

Mistyx who are you scumreading rn?

no one yet

i feel like this setup can be won by PoE anyway

[Mistyx]

at least that’s gonna be my excuse

[imaginality]

look i did it and now scum is going let me win all 4 and kill me at night.

Cyrus, who

actually

made those bids doesn't make a difference to my point that ssbm stating with certainty that town did it (before you started hinting it was you) is suspicious.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

look i did it and now scum is going let me win all 4 and kill me at night.

Cyrus, who

actually

made those bids doesn't make a difference to my point that

ssbm stating with certainty that town did it

(before you started hinting it was you) is suspicious.

Are you sure the bolded is your actual interpretation of my post (snipped below)?

It's also worth pointing out that based on the midday flip it appears that a single townie already bid their 500 dogebux by evenly spreading them amongst the 4 roles so our probability here is likely 8% rather than 6%, and that's only if all town follow the strat.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

you seem so focused on imaginality, are u confident about ur read on them?

Jury's still out but I dont think their push is in good faith so I'm trying to understand that rn

[imaginality]

look i did it and now scum is going let me win all 4 and kill me at night.

Cyrus, who

actually

made those bids doesn't make a difference to my point that

ssbm stating with certainty that town did it

(before you started hinting it was you) is suspicious.

Are you sure the bolded is your actual interpretation of my post (snipped below)?

It's also worth pointing out that based on the midday flip it appears that a single townie already bid their 500 dogebux by evenly spreading them amongst the 4 roles so our probability here is likely 8% rather than 6%, and that's only if all town follow the strat.

I admit I didn't remember the 'it appears' but I still think your decision to say 'townie' rather than 'player' is questionable. As is your downplaying of hitman in other posts.

[Distance]

i see the word scumslip

enlighten me

[cyrus62]

look i did it and now scum is going let me win all 4 and kill me at night.

Cyrus, who

actually

made those bids doesn't make a difference to my point that

ssbm stating with certainty that town did it

(before you started hinting it was you) is suspicious.

Are you sure the bolded is your actual interpretation of my post (snipped below)?

It's also worth pointing out that based on the midday flip it appears that a single townie already bid their 500 dogebux by evenly spreading them amongst the 4 roles so our probability here is likely 8% rather than 6%, and that's only if all town follow the strat.

I admit I didn't remember the 'it appears' but I still think your decision to say 'townie' rather than 'player' is questionable. As is your downplaying of hitman in other posts.

I hinted it was me long before that.

[cyrus62]

i think gamma and kyouko are town

i think forming reads so quick is nai but i dislike it.

You only dislike it because we aren’t sheep that will listen to your weak cries for power

one trick to this game is asking what one can bid on . me i will be honest , im broke right now but wont say what went where till later on.

post 129 . I said I was broke but won't say what went where till later. Well 125x4 =500

[cyrus62]

so 50 post before so you're sade is bad.

[cyrus62]

VOTE: Imaginality bad push bad shad . Also not following the game. Yes I know it was a weak crumb but it worked.

[imaginality]

You still don't get that my point is he called you town and I don't see why that betting pattern means you're town.

@Distance: I think ssbm only considering the possibility that the 125-bidder is a townie was a slip scum might make (they know it wasn't scum). Or it could be a deliberate choice of words (if cyrus also scum). I just see it less likely that a townie would assume the bidder was another townie.

Aside from that, I haven't got a lot of other strong reads. Still slightly suspicious of Alisae/Gamma for Alisae pushing to have the MO chosen based on skill rather than towniness. And I feel like there might be a couple of players being pretty quiet so far? Need to reread and check the user list.

Can I assume from the lack of discussion of my 'bid 401+ on random choice' plan that no one sees any issues with it?
If so I hope everyone remembers to bid before the day end (actually before the market closes, 10 mins before the day end). If scum pick up anything from today's market for cheap I'm going to be pretty annoyed.

[imaginality]

A few reads:
I lean town on marcistar, VFP and Cupcake.
Also cyrus and Distance at least appear to be trying to scum hunt in their own ways.

Kitty really needs to post more as do Smoke and Mirrors. There's like only a day left in this Day phase!

If I wasn't voting ssbm, my vote right now would be on mastina (gut) or Gamma for reasons already mentioned about Alisae, plus Gamma tried to minimise it in #120

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I'll be VLA tomorrow for Father's day but with the pace I should be able to keep up, and I'll definitely be around to bid before auction ends

[Gamma Emerald]

I've seen votes on imaginality for the timing on the bidding plan and "shade"
I honestly don't feel inspired by either

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Hi Nancy. <3

I'm gonna locktown you right now. Not for any reason mind you, just 'cuz I'm kinda desperate to call

someone

locktown and calling the slots that are pleasant folks I enjoy thoroughly locktown is as good a metric to use as anything else.

So my readslist right now looks something like:

Smoke and Mirrors
Flea the Magician
Mistyx
Gamma Emerald

(literally all other slots)

Hey Mastina

I agree with this list and thanks for the compliment. <3

I think you might be too based off of tone.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

remember only one person can bid with them self's right now town should work together there are more of us then scum . so 4 of us bid 500 on one item each day in order for scum to get any role they will have to out bid us . scum will have not enough money to bid high day 2 to beat us. as they will all be left with 300 . but we would still have 6 with 500. . so then if town . just bids 325 on day 2 we get every role. so whos up for trying this

yes, town need to work together and figure ut the best strategy.. but all ining on it seems a bit bad unless if its super important. (like cop and doc)

alisae made me realize that some items might not be as useful as i think they are, but i still stand strong that we've got to at least have some

tiny

shot at something, and not allow the less important powers to stack up on a player or 2, that seems very bad for us.

i disagree that is very good for scum means a kill cant be stoped. plus scum have 300 more then us so if your thinking doc helps here . over hitman your wrong . i count this post as scum trying to fool town in to letting scum get what they want.

i think alisaes just a player that very much like control and things to go their way, idk if its scum indicative, but it did make me feel weird about the slot.

-

that sub out was sad, but hi hi gamma emerald!

It’s probably more town indicative for Alisae actually. I don’t see e going out of eir way to piss off most of the playerlist as scum.

[KittyTacky]

Yeah real life got in the way.

VFP seems quite town to me, personally. He has been quite helpful and just generally smelled town.

I’m town.

I don't like this.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Now my problem is last time I played a game with a weird mechanic like this, I tried to lightningrod the bad for town roles and got my ass firmly handed to me

By lightning rod do you mean you tried to obtain the roles or you tried to get targeted by them? And what do you mean by got your ass firmly handed to you? You got miselimmed, endgamed, or what?

Have you learned something from that experience you think might not be intuitive in this setup?

HEAL: Flea

You lose my support!

Can you explain why you healed Alisae in the first place and then how you chose who to switch to? With most everyone else self-healing, it stands out as unusual to me. Scum want to control the market so this looks to me like healing alisae for such a brief time is a cover for getting your heal onto another player without drawing suspicion later on a scum!Flea flip

VOTE: VFP

HEAL: Smoke and MirrorsHEAL:

I could probably throw Gamma, Flea Mystix, Mastina and possibly Marci in there. I’m still unsure exactly what is going on mech wise because Pooky can’t get on discord due to IP issues but possibly leaning to maybe vote Flea. for MO?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

HEAL: Smoke and Mirrors

others will be added in direct proportion to my figuring out the mech stuff.

[Nancy Drew 39]

Yeah real life got in the way.

VFP seems quite town to me, personally. He has been quite helpful and just generally smelled town.

I’m town.

I don't like this.

Why not? So we’re scum for speaking the truth?

Any seasoned mafia player should - if they have no meta on a particular player, read something like that as NIA.

I find it curious that you read that post as AI at all, since I’m assuming you don’t know either of us?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Yeah real life got in the way.

VFP seems quite town to me, personally. He has been quite helpful and just generally smelled town.

I’m town.

I don't like this.

Why not? So we’re scum for speaking the truth?

Any seasoned mafia player should - if they have no meta on a particular player, read something like that as NIA.

I find it curious that you read that post as AI at all, since I’m assuming you don’t know either of us?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Sup homies


I’m town.

Nancy will be around to make this slot obviously town because she loves doing that.

Also I can’t believe Alisae roped me into playing this game and immediately repped out

Wild stuff

@Kitty Tacky, do me a favour please. The next time you decide to shade one of my or Pooky’s posts, please do us the courtesy of actually quoting the entire thing and not chopping the part of it that puts it into context. Thanks.

[Gamma Emerald]

like actually what the fuck was to point of tacky's responding to that