MT 2219: The Battle of Calculasia - Endgame

[MURDERCAT]

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=77755 (0)
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=77349 (0)
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=75972 (0)
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=75812 (2)
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=76359 (1)
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=75428 (0)
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=75460 (0)
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=74622 (0)
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=74559 (0)

I'm sure it's just a coincide you decided that the cutoff should be right before these games

[Xlos]

@Xlos: Now please keep me updated as to what you get/deduce from this.

Not much if nobody else responds I do get heavy townvibes from this response, though:

I'd argue that my role pm seems to be more of a law than a thing from somewhere.

I just wouldn't think of saying something like that if I was scum, instead I would probably say either the name of my region, or nothing - I might think:

since everyone else is avoiding the poll I can avoid it too to risk the threat of exposing myself.

This a really wild thing for Toogeloo to say if it's not true. And I don't really think that a law sounds particularly intuitionist. (I guess it could be something like Occam's razor, but again, why not just lie and pick a category?)

Xlos what the hell did I just read?

I honestly don't understand what's not to get here

you have some empirical evidence that it's one of the first 3 posters

Please see where I spend a page disproving the entire concept that this is meaningful

Yeah, I was just looking at that more. Also I just looked at his evidence 153 more and it's garbage, the first topics I clicked had 4 anti-town. So the empirical evidence is not even good...

@Xlos: Now please keep me updated as to what you get/deduce from this.

[Almost50]

Pure coincidence indeed.

(But if sworn in court I shall take the 5th)

I was being silly because I feel that you were. Are you telling me YOU don't have enough finished games??

Like, the reason I did mine was because it was easy for me to remember the details of the games once in the relevant thread. It also works as a "random" sample (unless you believe people behave differently in my presence). I want the current site meta, not 2, 3, 4 or 5 years ago. I mean this tell probably won't work 3 months from now. Be reasonable and impartial and I may buy your counterargument.

[MURDERCAT]

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=86462 (1)
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=86088 (0)
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=84671 (0)
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=84622 (0)

Here's the games from 2021

I do not have enough 13p games specifically, it's not a size I tend to play often

[Xlos]

Do the math for THIS sample.

This is a pretty dumb topic, but I'll join for the fun parts

Spoiler:

The expected number of games with no mafia in the first 3 posts is (3 choose 10) / (3 choose 13), so P(at least 1 mafia) is .58.
, your sample has 7/9 mafia.
P(7 mafia) = (7 choose 9) * (P 8 successes) * (P 1 fail) = 36 * (.58)^7 * (.42)^2 = .141
P(8 mafia) = (8 choose 9) * (P 8 successes) * (P 1 fail) = 9 * (.58)^8 * (.42) = .048
P(9 mafia) = (9 choose 9) * (P 8 successes) * (P 1 fail) = (.58)^9 = .007
P(7 or more mafia) = .197 (about 20%)

If we're going to debate over who to kill based on statistics, T3 has been mafia in 100% of the games that I've played.

[Almost50]

UNVOTE:

You're in luck. I am in 3 of those (the top 3) and only the top 2 belong to 2021 (the sample I took from my own games). The thing is the second one I didn't include (it somehow either slipped my sight or was relegated down the page in favor of older games that have been recently locked by Isis)

But anyway, this is evidence that I may have missed some data that would influence the overall outcome, and thus I'll withdraw my case for the time being.

Have a good day

[T3]

Xlos talking about the locations is towny for the same reasons he previously outlined.

[Ircher]

Day 1 VC #8

Flea The Magician (1): WhemeStar (189)
Xlos (2): DrippingGoofball (74), Titus (100)
Almost50 (1): MURDERCAT (126)
Jake The Wolfie (1): Jake The Wolfie (14)
Galron (0):
T3 (2): Galron (81), Xlos (244)
Titus (0):
WhemeStar (0):

MURDERCAT (4) (F-3): Flea The Magician (33), theslimer3 (187), nomnomnom (144), Toogeloo (173)

nomnomnom (0):

Not Voting (2): T3 (211), Almost50 (255)

With 13 alive, it takes 7 votes to fade a player.

Deadlines

This phase will end no later than Saturday, July 10, 2021 9:45 PM EDT or in (expired on 2021-07-10 21:45:00).
This phase will end no earlier than Monday, June 28, 2021 9:45:00 PM EDT or in (expired on 2021-06-28 21:45:00).

Moderator Notes

1: If you have regular weekend V/LA, please inform me each week.
2: Please let me know if you have a different pronoun preference than listed below.
3: Thesp's vote counter is really picky. While I said I'd allow abbreviations, it would be very helpful if you try to conform to the spelling of the player's username as much as possible. Case matters as well. If anyone knows how to do nicknames with Thesp's counter, please let me know. (I much prefer MathBlade's tool in terms of accuracy, but it isn't hosted online like Thesp's.)

Pronoun Key

1: DrippingGoofball : It
2: Flea The Magician : Fae/faer
3: Xlos : He/him
4: Almost50 : He/him
5: Jake the Wolfie : Any
6: Galron : He/him
7: theslimer3 : They/them
8: T3 : He/him
9: Titus : She/her
10: WhemeStar : He/him
11: MURDERCAT : He/him
12: Toogeloo : They/them
13: nomnomnom : He/him

[MURDERCAT]

VLA tomorrow until Thursday

[Xlos]

Guess I'll post reads. Please interact with me.

Toogeloo: Town lean. I mentioned in 251.

nomnomnom: Town lean. Posts seem fine. Though I guess there's one thing that seems a bit weird to me, in 26 he says something good will happen if we end on a prime number of pages and follows up with 87 indicating that it's serious. It seems fake to me though: if that was really his role, then wouldn't Ircher have been more specific about it? I mean, do days end when the hammer happens, or after the discussion? @nomnomnom please elaborate on this. I'm also not sure how much believe that a role with that kind of requirement would exist for some reasons that I will not mention. In any case, I think it's worth listening to, and ending days at the right time.

WhemeStar: Null. Please explain 189.

Almost50: Null. At first he had a fairly strong town lean, he's at least trying to make something happen. Then 224 seems way too early, I hadn't even looked at the thread in the time between when the wagon started and when it dissolved. And lots of the votes on that wagon were clearly not trying to make a hammer happen, such as 173 33

MURDERCAT: Totally null, he just defends himself with math, it's meaningless to me. I guess the fact that he got so many votes so fast puts him more town, but I don't see much that makes me want to put him there despite the deluge of posts.
\
DrippingGoofball: Somewhat scum lean, he's been really quiet and his vote is on me, and it hasn't moved since his logic got undermined.

Flea: Scum lean, he hasn't contributed anything. And he was on that last wagon, which doesn't mean that much, especially since he was so early

T3: scum. Actually I felt like his posts were clean, but that whole accidental not a hammer situation is not something I'm going to ignore. Especially with the "pedit: Hammer?" part of the post. Uhhh

[MURDERCAT]

Please check your pronouns usage xlos

[Xlos]

Ok I hit tab and then my post submitted mid edit... I didn't think I pushed enter afterwards but I must have, since my last post has a \ where my cursor was. And correct pronouns.

Anyways.

ItalianoVD: 2 posts so far = super null.

JakeTheWolfie: Probably town. Pretending to want to be lynched is kinda scary to do as scum since your team has some expectations of you. I'm not sure why anysuspects MurderKitty, though. Any seems to get to the point where he believes the 'first 3 posters' rule, then it kind of reads that he suspects MurderKitty because of it. But, uh, there are 2 other posters in the first 3 posters. They are simply not mentioned.

Titus: Null. Maybe a bit scummy? I feel like mafia built that wagon and she was on it + voted me earlier.

I think that's all 12 other people.

[Galron]

if that was really his role, then wouldn't Ircher have been more specific about it?

This sounds like T3's claim that he has some source of information regarding a modified role cop. I don't see anything in the rules or the flavor about gaining this type of information unless he's just taking a stab based on his own role, and I'm not going to go rolefishing to find out, but the only people who would try to flesh something like that out would lkely be scum in my experience.

[Galron]

And I don't mind your forgetting me in your reads list, but yeah, I did notice the pronoun thing with DGB just because I noticed it at the beginning of the game; I'm not really into pronoun policing. I don't really get your read on Titus. That mafia may have built that wagon is one thing, but you're taking an illogical leap, conflating her being on it and her voting you for her being mafia and then really the only reason you think she's mafia is because she voted you especially when you just got done saying that Flea being on the wagon didn't mean that much wrt being mafia. It's a bit circular.

[Galron]

And I don't mind your forgetting me in your reads list, but yeah, I did notice the pronoun thing with DGB just because I noticed it at the beginning of the game; I'm not really into pronoun policing. I don't really get your read on Titus. That mafia may have built that wagon is one thing, but you're taking an illogical leap, conflating her being on it and her voting you for her being mafia and then really the only reason you think she's mafia is because she voted you especially when you just got done saying that Flea being on the wagon didn't mean that much wrt being mafia. It's a bit circular.

@xlos

[DrippingGoofball]

Somewhat scum lean, he's been really quiet and his vote is on me, and it hasn't moved since his logic got undermined.

Yeah I got bored with the silliness of "more scum in the first three posters" - I post when I get my game start message from the mod regardless of alignment, I assume everyone else does the same unless they're caught up in fascinating strategy discussions in their scum PT.

I'll keep my vote on you just to bug.

Right now I don't know who else to vote for.

[Galron]

I like my vote right now but that push on Titus is just bad. I don't know about the whole where are you from thing. I've got T3 and xlos on my radar.

[post=xlos]xlos[/post]

[Galron]

I like my vote right now but that push on Titus is just bad. I don't know about the whole where are you from thing. I've got T3 and xlos on my radar.

VOTE: xlos

[Titus]

Didn't the mod warn us not to claim flavor? Wouldn't that naturally include what branch of math we were (if we even knew)?

P.S. I only joined because my brother would kill me if I didn't.

[nomnomnom]

VOTE: xlos
That readslist just comes from scum.
The concern about my role post reads super fake and I'm unsure why it was brought up this late.
I also find it super dodgy that xlos would take into account that post and yet not take into account T3's post which is a much more direct claim.

[Xlos]

And I don't mind your forgetting me in your reads list, but yeah, I did notice the pronoun thing with DGB just because I noticed it at the beginning of the game; I'm not really into pronoun policing. I don't really get your read on Titus. That mafia may have built that wagon is one thing, but you're taking an illogical leap, conflating her being on it and her voting you for her being mafia and then really the only reason you think she's mafia is because she voted you especially when you just got done saying that Flea being on the wagon didn't mean that much wrt being mafia. It's a bit circular.

Flea got on the wagon during RVS phase, while Titus... uh... wait a second. Apparently she never voted for MURDERCAT. I thought it was a later vote, and now I'm confused. She even said she voted for him, but I don't see it in her iso, so I'm pretty confused.

MC was hammered. I just pmed the mod. They forgot my vote.

Titus, any comments on that?

Anyways, it seems to me that you're crafting this vote with some pretty shaky reasoning. You call my logic illogical, but isn't it true that a mafia member is (slightly) more likely to vote a townie than a townie is? And, given that a wagon was made by the mafia, isn't it true that the people on it are more likely to be scum than the ones off of it? I agree that it's a weak reason, but that's why I gave a slight scum lean instead of a big one. Does anyone else feel like this post from Galron is a little off? It might just be me reacting to being FOSed, so I can't really trust myself on this one.

VOTE: xlos
That readslist just comes from scum.
The concern about my role post reads super fake and I'm unsure why it was brought up this late.
I also find it super dodgy that xlos would take into account that post and yet not take into account T3's post which is a much more direct claim.

I thought your post was a joke until I noticed the follow up, which I didn't do until I looked through your ISO. It's really not obvious what you're talking about in 87 since you don't provide a hyperlink to a post 60 posts back.

I avoid talking about T3's post since I don't want to dig deep into roles/claims in general. On the other hand, you explicitly stated that you want your claim to be talked about. Also, would you mind answering the question? It kind of seems that you aren't really that invested in ending the day on a prime number of pages.

[nomnomnom]

It kind of seems that you aren't really that invested in ending the day on a prime number of pages.

Why would you say that?

[Titus]

@Xlos, Are you literally asking me to agree with your scumlean on me based solely on the fact I voted you? Get out with that noise.

My comment on 218 is in 219.

[DrippingGoofball]

Nom3 is town!

[Xlos]

It kind of seems that you aren't really that invested in ending the day on a prime number of pages.

Why would you say that?

Because I was asking how we could help you achieve that goal, and you didn't respond to that question.

@Xlos, Are you literally asking me to agree with your scumlean on me based solely on the fact I voted you? Get out with that noise.

My comment on 218 is in 219.

I don't really expect you to agree, I'm just posting my thoughts. I don't want to just say "null", better to add an extra comment. But you are null, anyways.