Page 11 of 127
Posted: Mon May 09, 2022 3:57 am
by fireisredsir
In post 215, Aristeia wrote: In post 202, fireisredsir wrote: In post 177, Aristeia wrote:I didn't like that he didn't give me any pushback to scumreading him at all because I think town!him would wonder why I'm misreading him right away but scum!him might feel more scared and fearful of engaging immediately.
idk exactly how i responded to you misreading me in panic room but i feel like it was similar? except this time i find you more suspicious but thats unrelated i think. idk i don't usually push back that hard on people scumreading me in general
panic room was more cuz of the bella repout due to pressure from being a bomb theory then actually reading your play tho :<
mmm it may have been but i don't think that came across in thread, you were talking about how my tone was less confident and more careful etc. felt p similar there to here
except that there it seemed like you believed it
here idk if you really believed that from a page 1 suspicion i would just freeze up and stop posting as scum lol
Posted: Mon May 09, 2022 4:01 am
by skitter30
Dunno. Early interactions between the two of u certainly felt forced and unnatural
Posted: Mon May 09, 2022 4:02 am
by fireisredsir
In post 220, Irrelephant11 wrote:I could get here. Why is malakittens more town than save the dragons? @NK15 and @fireisredsir
mala vs save the dragons is just vibes to me. save the dragons has scummy vibes and mala has slightly towny vibes. sry if you wanted a convincing explanation lol
not very strong on mala, but im feeling less sure on datisi/menalque and ari is kinda scummy imo so mala is what's left
Posted: Mon May 09, 2022 4:03 am
by Aristeia
if we're t-t i think its just my fault for being more restrained than usual I guess.
Posted: Mon May 09, 2022 4:08 am
by skitter30
It wasnt entirely you, was dats also. This whole sequence + extended dialogue felt weird
And tbf so does
253
Why are u townreading me again?
Posted: Mon May 09, 2022 4:09 am
by Menalque
In post 233, Irrelephant11 wrote: In post 228, Menalque wrote:like, re: skitt
what do you think you could have done to reliably sort skitter when she hasn't even got 30 posts yet? I'm really sceptical that literally anyone on site could say that they're confident she's town based on that amount/what she's done so far
that doesn't mean treat her like scum -- I advocate the opposite -- but even doubling up on that, it's going to be very hard to reliably read her as town based on what she's actually done without anything concrete
To begin with: there's a 75% chance she's town.
Then: She said things in the dat/ari/skit opening to the game that I agreed with (like "you two feel weird")
Following: She rightly pointed out that me saying "more people should heal me" is sketchy without really coming for me. If she's scum she probably should have come for me as a widely townread townie, unless she thinks I'll lead town off a cliff based on my current trajectory
Even if the second & third things are only worth like 2% points of towniness each, there's now a 79% chance she's town. Good enough to sit in my coalition until the paranoia comes for me
okay, here's my problem with this:
(1) any player has a higher chance of being town than scum looked at purely randomly -- if you applied this to each player you'd be right in each case that the random % chance was better for scum than town, but you'd still just be shooting in the dark at random, which only leads to whatever the non-charisma based version EV gives for win %. it is a good argument for why to deal with people in good faith though
(2) do you think that scum!skitter wouldn't be able to note the same "weirdness" between dats/ari? if scum!skitt would also be able to recognise these things, then why would she not also point them out? I think this is NAI
(3) I can see why that can be perceived as sketchy but don't really think it is. I don't see any reasons why scum!skitt would necessarily see anyone as being a big enough threat at this point in the game that she'd risk compromising herself by going for them off the bat
again, not saying I think skitter is scum here, but I don't think the arguments you've put forth for why she's better-than-rand % town are convincing
Posted: Mon May 09, 2022 4:10 am
by Menalque
In post 235, skitter30 wrote: In post 232, Menalque wrote: In post 230, skitter30 wrote:I think mena is probably town
(Fwiw r.e. your approach to me: i think my game has gotten a bit worse recently, and that ari should probably be in the bucket you usually put me in, and that i'm probably not in the same tier as her these days, but i dont like inherently oppose or object to this approach to me, and can understand it
)
okay, noted -- I'm inclined to still sort you as normal, but I'll maybe put a bit less of a BoP on you than I have sometimes in the past as acknowledgement of that
Sure. Like i said feel free to do with this as you will, i'm not saying you should change how you approach me, or not, i'm just sharing how i feel abt my game now vs in the past
no, I appreciate the heads up, ty!
Posted: Mon May 09, 2022 4:10 am
by Aristeia
In post 254, skitter30 wrote:
It wasnt entirely you, was dats also. This whole sequence + extended dialogue felt weird
And tbf so does
253
Why are u townreading me again?
didnt we already have this conversation
Posted: Mon May 09, 2022 4:11 am
by Aristeia
In post 75, skitter30 wrote: In post 73, Aristeia wrote:also I kind of don't think scum!skitter directly comes at me this early >_>[if she did it just to get townread I guess I'm dumb]
Nah, i dont
Posted: Mon May 09, 2022 4:12 am
by Menalque
In post 231, Menalque wrote:
could you please say in your own words what you mean by Ari being thrown of balance
Posted: Mon May 09, 2022 4:17 am
by Menalque
hmm
don't think I like this list
at all
Posted: Mon May 09, 2022 4:18 am
by Irrelephant11
In post 255, Menalque wrote: In post 233, Irrelephant11 wrote: In post 228, Menalque wrote:like, re: skitt
what do you think you could have done to reliably sort skitter when she hasn't even got 30 posts yet? I'm really sceptical that literally anyone on site could say that they're confident she's town based on that amount/what she's done so far
that doesn't mean treat her like scum -- I advocate the opposite -- but even doubling up on that, it's going to be very hard to reliably read her as town based on what she's actually done without anything concrete
To begin with: there's a 75% chance she's town.
Then: She said things in the dat/ari/skit opening to the game that I agreed with (like "you two feel weird")
Following: She rightly pointed out that me saying "more people should heal me" is sketchy without really coming for me. If she's scum she probably should have come for me as a widely townread townie, unless she thinks I'll lead town off a cliff based on my current trajectory
Even if the second & third things are only worth like 2% points of towniness each, there's now a 79% chance she's town. Good enough to sit in my coalition until the paranoia comes for me
okay, here's my problem with this:
(1) any player has a higher chance of being town than scum looked at purely randomly -- if you applied this to each player you'd be right in each case that the random % chance was better for scum than town, but you'd still just be shooting in the dark at random, which only leads to whatever the non-charisma based version EV gives for win %. it is a good argument for why to deal with people in good faith though
(2) do you think that scum!skitter wouldn't be able to note the same "weirdness" between dats/ari? if scum!skitt would also be able to recognise these things, then why would she not also point them out? I think this is NAI
(3) I can see why that can be perceived as sketchy but don't really think it is. I don't see any reasons why scum!skitt would necessarily see anyone as being a big enough threat at this point in the game that she'd risk compromising herself by going for them off the bat
again, not saying I think skitter is scum here, but I don't think the arguments you've put forth for why she's better-than-rand % town are convincing
You're right that I'm sort of misusing random chance as a way to read people as town. But on the other hand I think it IS actually a good reason to not just write off good scum players who are also good town players - since they're more likely to be town, you shouldn't be afraid to townread their towniness
Posted: Mon May 09, 2022 4:19 am
by Irrelephant11
I don't know the more I argue it the less I believe in it but at the same time it helped me win coalition games before so I'll just keep it as my own thing and convince you skitter is town later if I feel the need to do so
Posted: Mon May 09, 2022 4:19 am
by Aristeia
who do you scumread on the list?
Posted: Mon May 09, 2022 4:19 am
by Irrelephant11
In post 249, Aristeia wrote:I guess the team I would like currently is
5 of
ari
skitter
irre
nk15
std
datisi
if thats what you were asking about.
Why is NK15 town fypov?
Posted: Mon May 09, 2022 4:20 am
by Aristeia
i think he believed what he wrote about me
Posted: Mon May 09, 2022 4:20 am
by skitter30
Ari do u think i ought to be townreading u?
Posted: Mon May 09, 2022 4:21 am
by Irrelephant11
Hm.
and why is datisi town fypov? @aristeia
Posted: Mon May 09, 2022 4:22 am
by Aristeia
i might be biased about dats but i tend to townread him when he digs in on things in realtime
Posted: Mon May 09, 2022 4:23 am
by Aristeia
well i do think im p townie but other people say im not so ~shrug~
Posted: Mon May 09, 2022 4:32 am
by Aristeia
I guess one way you could tell is that I'm trying to dial back on my thread presence because last time it was quite unpleasant for everyone that I was that loud and forceful and I wouldn't really exercise similar restraint if I'm mafia because I'd feel obligated to force my way into coalition whereas here I'm fine letting others lead.
Posted: Mon May 09, 2022 4:33 am
by Aristeia
yes I know that sounds silly given that I have the most posts but I really am trying to restrain myself more! >__< [which is also another reason you don't see like 200 posts from me flirting with Dats <3]
Posted: Mon May 09, 2022 4:33 am
by Menalque
I don't really have any scum reads yet but I don't think that any of (you, skitt, dats, nk15, std) have done enough to warrant inclusion on the coalition yet, with a marginally lower objection to dats being there than anyone else
Posted: Mon May 09, 2022 4:36 am
by Aristeia
In post 272, Menalque wrote:I don't really have any scum reads yet but I don't think that any of (you, skitt, dats, nk15, std) have done enough to warrant inclusion on the coalition yet, with a marginally lower objection to dats being there than anyone else
do you think any of mala/fire/you have done more than the people on my list?
Posted: Mon May 09, 2022 4:39 am
by Menalque
In post 261, Irrelephant11 wrote:You're right that I'm sort of misusing random chance as a way to read people as town. But on the other hand I think it IS actually a good reason to not just write off good scum players who are also good town players - since they're more likely to be town, you shouldn't be afraid to townread their towniness
I would definitely agree with not writing them off -- in fact, I think the best way to catch them is often from trying to work with them instead of tunnelling them, or from just sort of observing and seeing what they do without trying to pressure them off the bat
I guess what I'm really trying to say is that there need to be hard reasons for TRs on them -- thoughts or progressions that would be very hard to fake as scum, behaviours that wouldn't come from scum -- narrowing down which of those things are actually likely/unlikely depending on alignment becomes easier with more information (i.e. flips, results). but I think on D1 in particular, reads of X person as being towny should be thoroughly interrogated because people are often wrong in mafia, gut is often wrong, and if gut can't be substantiated with reasons for why person would do a thing as town but not as scum then it shouldn't be trusted (unless person has an exceptionally high accuracy with this borne out across multiple games)